Wednesday, April25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manasota Key, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 8:00PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 4:20 AM EDT (08:20 UTC) Moonrise 2:59PMMoonset 3:15AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ856 Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Englewood Fl Out 20 Nm- 306 Am Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
Today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light to moderate chop.
Tonight..Northwest winds around 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light to moderate chop.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to around 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday night..West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday..West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Friday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Saturday night..North winds around 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots toward morning. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Sunday..North winds around 10 knots then becoming northwest around 5 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 306 Am Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
Synopsis.. Northwest winds will prevail across the eastern gulf of mexico today behind a departing cold front. These winds will shift to the west and southwest during Thursday ahead of our next approaching cold front...currently expected to arrive over the eastern gulf of mexico during Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manasota Key, FL
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location: 26.94, -82.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 250745
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
345 am edt Wed apr 25 2018

Synopsis
08z water vapor and h4 rap analysis showing the florida
peninsula under the axis of a passing longwave
trough... Anchored to a closed low exiting the tn valley
toward the carolinas. As this trough axis passes by... Wv
imagery shows plenty of mid upper level subsidence and dry
air overhead. Any kind of substantial moisture in the
column is generally below 850mb... And even this will be
slowly scoured out as we head through the first half of the
day.

At the surface... A weak cold front is exiting south of the
florida peninsula early this morning. Pressure gradient
between this front and high pressure over the north-central
gulf coast is providing our region with a steady northwest
wind. Temperatures as we get closer to dawn are running
generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Temperatures may
fall another couple of degrees before sunrise, but dewpoints
suggest we are pretty close to our low temperatures for the
night.

Short term (today through Thursday)
Today... A dry and seasonable day is in store for west-
central and southwest florida in the wake of weak departing
cold front. Plenty of sunshine can be expected with
northwest winds and high temperatures in the upper 70s to
near 80 at the coast... And lower 80s inland.

Tonight and Thursday... The next significant amplification to
the mid upper level pattern will begin to evolve as a strong
shortwave trough evolves out of the central plains and
across the deep south. A surface cold front will accompany
this upper level energy... Reaching the florida big bend
region by Thursday evening. As this next front slowly
approaches, winds shift to the west and eventually southwest
during the daylight hours Thursday.

There is very good agreement among the reliable nwp
guidance (including all members of the gefs) that the best
combination of synoptic lift and available column moisture
associated with this next approaching system will remain to
our north and westward through Thursday. With this in mind,
will keep mention of showers out of the forecast... Even for
our far northern areas through Thursday evening. High
temperatures on Thursday should reach the lower to middle
80s for locations away from the coast... With middle 70s to
around 80 closer to the water due to the wind blowing off
the still relatively cooler shelf waters.

Long term (Thursday night through Tuesday)
A shortwave trough will be swinging through the
southeastern us Thursday night, staying well north of the
florida peninsula while another shortwave ejects from the
central plains into the southern mississippi river valley.

The first shortwave will drag a weak and mostly dry cold
front into the florida peninsula and eastern gulf of mexico
Thursday night and Friday. Modest moisture return ahead of
this front will allow for the possibility of some patchy fog
over southwest florida Thursday night and into Friday
morning. The second shortwave will dig into the northeastern
gulf of mexico on Friday and pass through the florida
peninsula on Saturday. This will help reinforce the surface
cold front, and allow for a bit more widespread convection
on Friday, with 20-40 percent chances of rain across the
area.

Rain chances will taper off Friday night as the shortwave pushes
east of the region. A mid level ridge will then push into the
central us during the second half of the weekend and build into the
eastern seaboard early next week. This will support a strong surface
ridge developing over the eastern us, keeping seasonably warm and
generally dry conditions in place through the end of the forecast
period.

Aviation (25 06z through 26 06z)
Vfr conditions expected to prevail throughout the taf
period. Periodic few-sct stratocu will move off the gulf
through the morning hours with bases between 2-3kft, but no
cig restrictions anticipated. Light W NW winds less than 10
knots increase to between 10-14 knots by midday.

Marine
Northwest winds will prevail across the eastern gulf of mexico today
behind a departing cold front. These winds will shift to the west and
southwest during Thursday ahead of our next approaching cold
front... Currently expected to arrive over the eastern gulf of mexico
during Friday.

Fire weather
Dry northwest winds will prevail across the region behind a
departing cold front. Current forecasts keep relative humidity
above critical levels, and hence no red flag conditions are
expected. Winds shift to the west and southwest during Thursday
ahead of the next weak cold front... Arriving across the
region during Friday.

Fog potential... Patchy ground fog is expected away from the
coast early Thursday morning, however, no significant
areas of widespread or dense fog are currently anticipated.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 78 66 79 68 0 0 0 0
fmy 83 64 82 66 0 0 0 10
gif 83 61 85 63 0 0 0 0
srq 75 67 76 68 0 0 10 0
bkv 78 60 81 62 10 0 0 10
spg 80 66 80 69 0 0 0 0

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Synopsis short term aviation marine fire wx... Mroczka
long term decision support... Fleming


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VENF1 - Venice, FL 11 mi81 min NW 13 G 15 71°F 77°F1014.8 hPa (-0.9)61°F
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 32 mi51 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 69°F 85°F1014.2 hPa
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 34 mi51 min NW 9.7 G 14 74°F

Wind History for C-Cut, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Venice Municipal Airport, FL10 mi26 minWNW 1010.00 miA Few Clouds70°F62°F78%1014.6 hPa
Punta Gorda, Charlotte County Airport, FL19 mi28 minWNW 410.00 miFair67°F59°F76%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from PGD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6W6SW7W9NW8NW4W4W9W9NW11W12W12W13W13
G19
W13W13NW8NW8NW7NW6NW6NW4NW6NW3
1 day agoCalmE3SE5SE6SE6S6S8S12SW14SW11SW17
G21
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SW16SW13SW11SW6SW5SW4S5S3SW4S5
2 days agoE4E6NE5NE6E7E7E12E10E10E9
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SE6W9SW16SE10SE16SE11S7SE5E5E5CalmE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Englewood, Lemon Bay, Florida
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Englewood
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Wed -- 04:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:33 AM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:35 PM EDT     1.13 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:47 PM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:37 PM EDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.10.90.70.40.2000.10.30.60.811.11.11.110.90.80.80.80.91.11.21.2

Tide / Current Tables for Boca Grande Pass, Charlotte Harbor, Florida Current
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Boca Grande Pass
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:43 AM EDT     -2.18 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:55 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:41 AM EDT     2.43 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:25 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:39 PM EDT     -1.18 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:09 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:26 PM EDT     1.51 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.8-1.5-2-2.2-1.8-0.90.11.11.92.32.42.11.30.4-0.5-1.1-1.1-0.8-0.10.61.21.51.51.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.