Sunday, February18, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Nokomis, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 6:25PM Sunday February 18, 2018 4:00 AM EST (09:00 UTC) Moonrise 8:52AMMoonset 9:06PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ853 Coastal Waters From Englewood To Tarpon Springs Fl Out 20 Nm- 359 Am Est Sun Feb 18 2018
.dense fog advisory in effect until noon est today...
Today..East winds around 5 knots then becoming north early in the afternoon, then becoming northwest around 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Areas of dense fog in the morning.
Tonight..North winds around 10 knots then becoming east after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday..Southeast winds around 10 knots then becoming northeast around 5 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday night..East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday..East winds around 15 knots then becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday night..East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..Southeast winds around 10 knots then becoming east around 5 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots then becoming east after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 359 Am Est Sun Feb 18 2018
Synopsis..High pressure will ridge across the area through the period. SEa fog will linger over the northern coastal waters today, and then could redevelop tonight. Light winds will turn onshore each afternoon near the coast with the sea breeze.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nokomis, FL
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location: 27.11, -82.46     debug

Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 180739
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
239 am est Sun feb 18 2018

Short term (today through Monday)
Mid level ridging continues to extend from the western
atlantic across the florida straits and into the eastern
gulf of mexico this morning as a shortwave swings through
new england and the mid atlantic states. At the surface,
the subtropical ridge also extends across the florida
peninsula but will gradually shift east today and tonight
before being replace by a stronger ridge axis across the
carolinas on Monday. This pattern will setup continued light
winds with rain free conditions and temperatures running
well above normal. High temperatures are forecast to range
from the upper 70s to mid 80s today, and could run a couple
of degrees warmer on Monday in many locations.

Apart from the warm temperatures, the main weather concern
will continue to be fog. Dense fog has developed over the
nature coast already this morning, and has been pushing
south into the tampa bay area interstate 4 corridor. The
hrrr and other high resolution models have not been showing
widespread fog over southwest florida, but all the
ingredients are there for fog development, so it would not
be surprising to see at least a few patches of dense fog
around sunrise south of tampa bay. Otherwise expect any fog
to dissipate by mid morning. A similar setup tonight and
Monday morning should allow for fog to develop once again.

Long term (Tuesday through next Saturday)
A remarkable stretch of warm and mostly dry weather shows no
end in sight folks. The synoptic pattern does not change
much from day to day right into next weekend as generally
stacked ridging controls our weather. The mid upper level
ridge migrates a bit from either just to our northeast... To
sometimes overhead, while the subtropical ridge axis ridges
westward from the atlantic into our vicinity through the
period. The only small... And I mean small... Feature to even
note is a weak impulse high aloft that is shown by most
ensemble members to round the southern base of the upper
ridge and then move north through the eastern gulf of mexico
during Tuesday. This impulse will bring with it a slight
increase in the depth of column moisture... And slightly
cooler mid-level temperatures. However, overall the path of
this impulse keeps these subtle changes mainly over the
water... Perhaps moving north into the fl big bend area late
in the day. With this in mind... Will add a slight chance for
a shower to be partially supported by this energy along the
sea- breeze up toward levy county. Elsewhere, the forecast
stays rain- free through next Saturday.

Temperatures under the big upper ridge will continue well
above normals through the period. Inland areas little to
suggest that areas away from the immediate coast will not
reach the lower mid 80s each day, with the beaches in the
mid upper 70s.

We have been dealing with frequent bouts of sea fog recently
due to the very warm and humid february conditions
occurring after sea surface temperatures become quite cold
across the eastern gulf as a result of a rather cold
january. The good news is that the recent warmth has had a
big impact on the ssts during the past 7-10 days. We have
seen water temps rise a good 5-8 degrees up and down the
florida west coast during this time, and with warmth
continuing through the week, would expect these water temps
to continue creeping up. It is going to become increasingly
difficult to get the dewpoint sst differentials needed for
sea fog going into the future under this pattern, so
although there is still time to get some cold air
intrusions, perhaps we will soon see the worst of the winter
sea fog season behind us.

Patches of fog are starting to expand south into the tampa
bay area, producing periods of MVFR-vlifr conditions. For
the rest of the night through sunrise, this fog is expected
to continue expanding south and impacting area TAF sites
before lifting out by around 14-15z.VFR conditions will
then hold through the rest of the day before another round
of fog develops early Monday morning.

Atlantic high pressure ridging into the eastern gulf will
lift north tonight and Monday, with light winds and seas
continuing. The primary marine hazard will continue to be
sea fog, which is currently present over the coastal waters
adjacent to the nature coast. This sea fog could expand
farther south through the morning hours, before gradually
dissipating during the late morning and afternoon. A similar
setup will allow sea fog formation to continue to be
possible each night through the rest of the week.

Fire weather
Warm and rain free conditions will continue through the next
several days, with relative humidity remaining above
critical thresholds. Fog will continue to develop each day
during the evening and early morning hours, before burning
off by mid morning.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 81 66 84 68 0 10 0 10
fmy 85 65 85 68 10 10 10 10
gif 84 63 84 66 0 10 0 10
srq 80 65 84 68 0 10 10 10
bkv 83 62 85 65 0 0 0 10
spg 80 67 82 69 0 10 0 10

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... Dense fog advisory until 9 am est this morning for coastal
citrus-coastal hernando-coastal levy-coastal pasco-
inland citrus-inland hernando-inland levy-inland

Gulf waters... Dense fog advisory until noon est today for coastal waters
from englewood to tarpon springs fl out 20 nm-coastal
waters from tarpon springs to suwannee river fl out
20 nm-tampa bay waters-waters from englewood to
tarpon springs fl out 20 to 60 nm-waters from tarpon
springs to suwannee river fl out 20 to 60 nm.

Short term aviation marine fire weather... 18 fleming
mid term long term decision support... 14 mroczka

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VENF1 - Venice, FL 3 mi61 min ENE 6 G 7 63°F 74°F1022.1 hPa (-0.7)63°F
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 25 mi91 min N 1.9 G 3.9 69°F
PMAF1 37 mi43 min 65°F 73°F1022 hPa
MTBF1 39 mi43 min E 1.9 G 1.9 68°F 1022.2 hPa65°F
42098 41 mi31 min 68°F1 ft
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 45 mi43 min E 1.9 G 5.1 67°F 80°F1022.1 hPa
CLBF1 45 mi67 min E 1.9 G 2.9 64°F 1021.3 hPa
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 46 mi49 min N 2.9 G 4.1 65°F 72°F1021.4 hPa

Wind History for C-Cut, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Venice Municipal Airport, FL3 mi66 minENE 410.00 miFair63°F62°F100%1022.3 hPa
Sarasota / Bradenton, Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport, FL21 mi68 minNNE 33.00 miFog/Mist62°F62°F100%1021.6 hPa

Wind History from VNC (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNE4E3CalmSE3SE5SE4S5SW7SW8SW9SW6SW6SW6W6NW5NW5NW4CalmNW4NW3CalmCalmE4E5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S8S7S7SW6W7W7W6W5NW3CalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmSE3S4Calm
2 days agoE7E7E7E6E8E7E54SW8SW8SW9SW7W6SW6W4NW4CalmNW3NW3CalmCalmCalmE4NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Venice Inlet (inside), Florida
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Venice Inlet (inside)
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Sun -- 01:01 AM EST     1.71 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:57 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:02 PM EST     1.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:23 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:53 PM EST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:05 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Englewood, Lemon Bay, Florida
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Sun -- 02:34 AM EST     1.22 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:21 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:29 PM EST     1.00 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:23 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:05 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 09:19 PM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.