Tuesday, October24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Buckhead Ridge, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 6:46PM Tuesday October 24, 2017 7:15 AM EDT (11:15 UTC) Moonrise 10:35AMMoonset 9:32PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ610 Lake Okeechobee- 432 Am Edt Tue Oct 24 2017
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters a moderate chop. Wind and waves higher near showers and scattered Thunderstorms.
Tonight..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north northwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Lake waters a moderate chop. Numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms in the evening...then scattered showers after midnight.
Wednesday..North northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers in the morning. Isolated showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..North northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop.
Friday and Friday night..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Saturday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 432 Am Edt Tue Oct 24 2017
Synopsis..Showers and Thunderstorms will increase today and tonight ahead of a cold front which will move down the florida peninsula today. The front will move through south florida and the local waters late tonight and early Wednesday. Following the passage of the front, wind and seas will increase over all local waters Wednesday and Wednesday night with likely small craft advisory conditions. Wind and seas will gradually subside Thursday and Friday, but still remain at moderate levels. Showers and Thunderstorms increase again over the local waters Saturday as low pressure moves north over the region.
Gulf stream hazards..SEas building to 7 feet on Wednesday and Wednesday night. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of oct 21, 2017 at 1200 utc... 9 nautical miles east of fowey rocks. 13 nautical miles east southeast of port everglades. 13 nautical miles east southeast of lake worth. 11 nautical miles east of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Buckhead Ridge, FL
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location: 27.16, -81.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 240815
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
415 am edt Tue oct 24 2017

Showers and a few thunderstorms today and tonight...

First cold front of the season moves through late tonight...

Discussion
Short term (today through Thursday): large and deep longwave
trough over the eastern half of north america will be the driving
force behind a cold front which will move through south florida
late tonight early Wednesday morning, bringing the first shot of
cooler and drier air of the season to our region. Before that
happens, however, plenty of deep moisture will remain in place as
the cold front currently across north florida slowly moves down
the peninsula today. Areas of showers and embedded thunderstorms
will affect south florida through tonight, with one pre-frontal
round of precipitation this morning affecting primarily gulf
coast SW florida as well as coastal sections of SE florida, then
transitioning to the main area of showers and thunderstorms with
the actual front this afternoon and tonight, aided by diurnal
heating and sea breeze convergence.

The front will move rather slowly today as the main piece of energy
rotating around the deep eastern north american trough will not
push into the southeast u.S. Until late tonight. This delay in the
arrival of the mid upper trough and associated dynamics forcing,
along with modest forecast CAPE values in the 1500-1800 j kg range
this afternoon during peak heating, should result in thunderstorms
ahead of the front to be mainly below strong levels. Some gusty
winds to 30-40 mph may accompany the most vigorous convection,
with the main threat being locally heavy rainfall and flooding as
the band of moisture moves slowly through the area ahead of the
front. By the time the upper dynamics forcing arrive, the front
will be pushing through the area with cooler low level air
overspreading the area by daybreak Wednesday. A few strong
thunderstorms could set up over the atlantic waters early
Wednesday right ahead of the front, but should not affect land
areas before the frontal passage. At this point we can say with
reasonably high confidence that the frontal passage will
essentially end the wet season, with the last day being today.

Skies will be slow to clear behind the front on Wednesday even as
cooler and drier air rushes in, as initial push will be shallow with
the 850 mb and 700 mb troughs lagging behind. This sets up an overrunning
pattern with light precipitation lingering for 4-8 hours after the
frontal passage. Due to the clouds and cold air advection (haven't
used that term in a discussion in quite a while), temperatures
will likely remain steady or even fall a few degrees during the
first part of the day and not recover until afternoon (maybe even
late afternoon SE areas). Therefore, high temperatures will likely
be several degrees cooler than MOS as it typically does not handle
cold air advection overrunning patterns in south florida too well
from a temperature perspective. Wednesday will feel quite a bit
cooler for south floridians after months of heat and high humidity.

Highs will probably end up in the 70s all areas, but not after
much of the day struggling to reach 70 degrees.

Coolest period will be Wednesday night Thursday morning as skies
clear and north winds continue to filter down cool air. Most areas
away from the immediate coasts will dip into the 50s, with upper 40s
in the normally colder areas west of lake okeechobee and interior
collier county. Immediate east coast and urban cores, particularly
mia and fll, may stay in the 60-62f range. These temperatures would
be the coolest in south florida since april 8th.

Thursday will be a mostly sunny and mild day with highs in the upper
70s. Even though winds will become NE during the day, moisture
recovery will be slow and humidity levels will remain low.

Long term (Friday through Monday): temperatures moderate on Friday
as winds become e, but still mostly below late october norms for
lows with readings mainly in the 50s and 60s, except near 70 along
the east coast. A few showers return to the forecast, but Friday
will be the last mostly dry day before deep tropical moisture surges
back into south florida Friday night and Saturday from the western
caribbean in association with an area of low pressure which as of
this time has a 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5
days. This northward transport of deep moisture will be aided by
another deep and strong mid upper level trough over the eastern
u.S. Which will send another cold front into the gulf of mexico
and approach florida late this upcoming weekend.

Models have struggled somewhat over the past couple of days with
respect to the evolution and timing of the northward movement of the
western caribbean low, but appear to be converging towards a general
solution of an elongated south north trough across the straits of
florida, eastern gulf of mexico and florida peninsula on Saturday,
then shifting east of the area on Sunday as the main low in the
vicinity of cuba and the western bahamas gets driven east by the
deep mid-latitude trough and frontal system. This system bears watch
as it remains to our south this week and gradually moves north, but
right now the main potential impact to south florida as this early
stage appears to be heavy rainfall and possible flooding Saturday
and early Sunday. The next cold front then is progged by the
majority of the available guidance to sweep through on Sunday, which
would usher in another shot of cool air and below normal
temperatures to south florida to end the weekend and begin next
week.

Marine
Decent marine conditions outside of showers and thunderstorms
most of today, but deteriorating tonight as the cold front moves
through the local waters and thunderstorms affect mainly the
atlantic waters late tonight. Seas are expected to build to 8 feet
over the outer gulf of mexico waters on Wednesday behind the
front, and to 7 feet in the gulf stream off the east coast. Winds
will gust to 25 to 30 knots on Wednesday. These conditions will
likely necessitate a small craft advisory with this afternoon's
forecast package. Wind and seas will gradually subside on
Thursday and Friday but still remain at moderate levels.

Conditions again deteriorate this weekend as showers thunderstorms
spread across all waters Saturday and early Sunday, along with
increasing wind and seas by Sunday.

Fire weather
The season's first surge of cooler and drier air will drop
relative humidity values into the 35 to 40 percent range western
areas on Wednesday and area-wide on Thursday. For the time being
it looks like marginal red flag conditions at best, without
considering the erc values which in all likelihood will remain
below critical levels. Humidity levels recover Friday through
Sunday.

Prev discussion issued 127 am edt Tue oct 24 2017
aviation...

the winds will be south southeast around 5 to 10 knots today over
most of the TAF sites. The only exception to this is at kapf taf
site where the winds will become southwest this afternoon.

The weather should remain dry over the east coast TAF sties
through early this morning, before vcsh conditions between 12z and
17z. After 17z today, the weather will be dominated by showers
with any a chance of a few thunderstorms until 00z. Therefore,
vcsh between 12z and 17z, then shra with vcts until 00z. Kapf taf
site will have vcsh until 12z then shra with vcts until 17z, then
vcsh for the afternoon hours. The vis and ceilings will in theVFR
conditions early this morning, but should fall down into MVFR
conditions after 12z today due to the showers and thunderstorms.

Aviation... 54 bnb

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 84 70 76 55 70 70 40 0
fort lauderdale 85 70 74 59 70 70 40 10
miami 85 69 74 60 70 70 40 10
naples 83 63 75 56 70 30 0 0

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Discussion... ..59 molleda
marine... ... ... 59 molleda
fire weather... 59 molleda


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 68 mi46 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 79°F 83°F1014.2 hPa73°F
VENF1 - Venice, FL 72 mi76 min S 9.9 G 11 79°F 80°F1012.9 hPa (-0.4)75°F

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Okeechobee County Airport, FL15 mi21 minN 010.00 miOvercast72°F71°F100%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from OBE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE3SE3S8
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S7S8S9S10SE6SE6SE6SE7S5SW5CalmCalmCalmSW4W4NW4Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmE4E9E4
G15
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E6E7SE7E5E6E4E4E3E3CalmE3CalmE3CalmE3Calm
2 days agoNE3NE4NE6E9
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E8NE5NE4NE4NE4NE3CalmE3NE3NE3NE3E4E3

Tide / Current Tables for North Fork, St. Lucie River, Florida
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North Fork
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Tue -- 02:13 AM EDT     1.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:06 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:47 PM EDT     1.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:35 PM EDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.11.21.21.21.110.80.70.60.50.60.70.91.11.21.31.21.21.110.90.80.80.9

Tide / Current Tables for Stuart, St. Lucie River, Florida
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Stuart
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:56 AM EDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:08 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:34 PM EDT     1.14 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:40 PM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.11.11.110.90.70.60.50.50.50.70.811.11.11.1110.90.80.80.80.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.