Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stuart, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 8:08PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 4:46 AM EDT (08:46 UTC) Moonrise 3:53AMMoonset 4:53PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 432 Am Edt Tue May 23 2017
.small craft should exercise caution...
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period 4 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 4 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 4 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Thunderstorms likely.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out 60 Nm- 432 Am Edt Tue May 23 2017
Synopsis..A moderate to fresh south-southwest breeze will create poor conditions for small craft operation in the open atlantic into Wednesday. Hazardous conditions are expected late Wednesday into Thursday as a frontal boundary approaches. Isolated to scattered storms will move offshore this afternoon. Coverage will increase Wednesday, especially during the afternoon and evening, when fast moving storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts. Winds and seas will diminish by Friday with favorable boating conditions continuing into the holiday weekend.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 22nd. 45 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 33 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 26 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stuart, FL
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location: 27.2, -80.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 230755
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
355 am edt Tue may 23 2017

Discussion
Slight risk for strong-severe storms Wednesday...

today... Broad trough aloft in place over the eastern CONUS will
drift east with slight height falls indicated locally late in the
day, but the main impulses in the increasing southwest flow aloft
should remain to our north. The models continue to show some
drier air entrained in the deep southwest flow spreading across
the area, especially southern sections. The increasing southwest
low level winds will inhibit an east coast sea breeze. Therefore,
coverage of afternoon showers and storms looks scattered at best.

Highest values will be over the north (40 percent). MOS has 20
percent in the south, but will hold on to 30 percent as the lake
okeechobee boundary may help generate scattered convection there.

Tonight... High moisture band and impulses aloft are indicated moving
across the northeast gulf of mexico and northeast florida. There
is a chance for some of the associated convection to affect our
northern areas and have kept 40-50 pops there, otherwise pops look
minimal.

Wed-wed night...

active wx pattern as a vigorous, hi amp short wave over the nation's
midsection is fed by a meridional 100kt h30-h20 jet MAX digging over
the high plains, and a 110kt zonal jet over central tx. The short
wave will spin up a well organized storm system over the midwest
thru the day, then will lift it into the great lakes overnight. H100-
h70 pressure field over the deep south/w atlc is rather low due to a
stationary front draped over the NW gulf coast extending into the
srn appalachians. This should keep the WRN flank of the atlc ridge
axis weak and disorganized, opening the door for the storm system to
crank a late season frontal boundary thru central fl by daybreak
thu.

Moisture will be plentiful as deep lyr s/sw flow ahead of the front
taps a tropical airmass over the NW carib, while moisture pooling
within the frontal trof pushes pwat values into the 1.75"-2.00"
range by late Wed aftn. Precip likely to categorical as the airmass
becomes nearly saturated and dynamic support increases. Tight pgrad
will allow mean winds thru the h100-h70 lyr to freshen to 30-35kts
by midday wed, then 35-40kts Wed night, raising the potential for
strong to severe wind gusts with any deep convection that may dvlp.

Attm all indications are that the 0-3km wind field will be fairly
unidirectional out of the sw, which will limit the threat of any
rotating storms, while mid lvl temps arnd -9c will limit the hail
threat. SPC has painted all of central fl in the slgt risk
category... Will mention gusty winds with the tsras.

Mcldy/cldy skies will limit sfc heating, but this should be overcome
by the the brisk SW flow... MAX temps in the m/u80s along and north
of the i-4 corridor... U80s/l90s to the south. Steady wrly flow and
high cloud cover will keep min temps in the u60s north of i-4, and
in the l/m along the space and treasure coasts/lake-o area.

Thu-thu night...

frontal boundary will transit central fl thru the day as its parent
storm system drifts acrs new england. The front will push into the
south peninsula btwn sunset and midnight where it will eventually
stall. Precip ending rapidly in the wake of the front as a deep and
steady w/nw flow generates a strong dry air advection pattern,
coupled with weak post frontal ridging. Will keep sct pops in the
fcst thru the day, increasing from 30pct along the i-4 corridor to
50pct treasure coast/lake-o region, but the bulk of any additional
rainfall should be done by mid aftn. Will hold onto a slgt chc of
shras over the southernmost counties Thu night given the closer
proximity to the front and its assocd moisture band.

Weak cool air advection coupled with mcldy skies and rain cooled air
will keep temps near or slightly blo avg... MAX temps l/m80s, min
temps l/m60s.

Fri-memorial day...

h85-h50 trough assocd with the frontal boundary will push into the w
atlc on Fri as the storm moves acrs the canadian maritimes. Srn
extension of the front will be abandoned over S fl where it will
wash out over the weekend. Deep high pres ridge will build in from
the gulf of mexico and acrs the fl peninsula on sat, enroute to the
w atlc on Sun where it will merge with and reinforce the atlc ridge.

Dry/suppressed airmass will keep the fcst dry through sat. As the
ridge builds over the W atlc with its trailing axis draped over
central fl, the LCL pgrad will be sufficiently weak to allow both
east/west coast sea breezes to dvlp. Moisture return will be slow as
ridge will tend to block out any high rh, but looks high enough by
sun to bring low end (20pct) pops back into the fcst.

Near full Sun and light srly flow will generate abv avg temps for
the upcoming holiday weekend... Maxes in the u80s/l90s along the
coast to the m90s over the interior. Min temps u60s/l70s interior
and l/m70s along the coast.

Beach outlook for the upcoming holiday weekend...

a high pressure ridge is forecast to be over the area. This will
provide rather light winds, except for the afternoon sea breeze.

No source of long period swell is indicated either. While rip
currents can still occur, they shouldn't be nearly as active as
the last 2 memorial day weekends (3 fatalities in 2016 and 4 in
2015). The chance for afternoon lightning storms looks low at this
time.

Aviation MainlyVFR this morning, but there could be some
stratus ceilings early especially kism-kmco-ksfb. Scattered
afternoon showers and a few storms are expected to move across the
peninsula from west to east this afternoon, mainly northward from
kism-kmco-kmlb.

Marine
Today-tonight... High pressure ridge axis will be suppressed well
to our south and the pressure gradient looks tight enough for
south to southwest winds 15-20 knots in the open atlantic. This
will create a rough chop for small craft even though sea heights
will be limited to 4 or 5 feet due to short fetch length. This
will necessitate an exercise caution statement for the offshore
zones. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will move northeast
20-25 knots off the mainland this afternoon, especially from cape
canaveral northward.

Wed/wed night... Hazardous boating conds as a brisk SW breeze
prevails ahead of an approaching frontal boundary... Moderate to
fresh thru the day, bcmg fresh to strong overnight. The offshore
wind component will limit sea heights 3-4ft nearshore and 4-6ft
offshore, but also will generate rough, short pd wind waves aob
6sec. Nmrs shras and tsras moving offshore, some with sfc wind
g35kts.

Thu/thu night... Hazardous conds will cont thru the day as the
frontal boundary pushes thru central fl. Boundary expected to stall
south of lake-o aft sunset with sfc winds gradually diminishing in
its wake. Fresh to strong SW breeze at daybreak, bcmg a moderate to
fresh w/sw breeze by mid aftn, then a gentle to moderate w/nw breeze
overnight. Seas 3-5ft nearshore and 6-8ft offshore thru the day,
subsiding to 2-3ft nearshore and 3-4ft offshore overnight.

Fri/fri night... Post frontal high pres ridge will build acrs the fl
peninsula, resulting in winds shifting thru the day. Light to gentle
nw breeze at daybreak, bcmg a light N breeze by midday, light to
gentle e/ne breeze by late aftn, then a light to gentle s/se breeze
by midnight. Seas AOB 2ft nearshore and 2-3ft offshore.

Sat/sat night... Weak pgrad as the high pres builds over the W atlc
with its trailing axis extending acrs central fl. Light to gentle
s/sw breeze in the morning, bcmg a gentle to moderate e/se breeze by
mid aftn as the east coast sea breeze dvlps and pushes inland. Winds
bcmg a gentle to moderate s/sw breeze overnight with the formation
of the nocturnal land breeze. Seas AOB 2ft nearshore and 2-3ft
offshore.

Fire weather
Today... There are no low rh concerns but southwest winds will
increase to around 15 mph and be gusty to around 20 mph. This
combined with continued dry vegetation and widely scattered
lightning storms will produce a high danger for wildfire spread
where there was little or no rainfall on Monday.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Dab 89 74 85 69 / 40 50 80 70
mco 90 73 87 70 / 30 20 80 70
mlb 91 75 89 73 / 30 20 70 70
vrb 91 75 89 74 / 30 20 70 70
lee 88 75 85 69 / 40 40 80 70
sfb 90 75 85 69 / 40 30 80 70
orl 89 74 86 70 / 30 30 80 70
fpr 92 74 90 73 / 30 20 70 70

Mlb watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term... Lascody
long term... .Bragaw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) 24 mi47 min 79°F2 ft
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 42 mi47 min 79°F 81°F1015.3 hPa (-1.4)70°F
SIPF1 47 mi32 min SSW 8.9 76°F 1015 hPa
SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI 75 mi47 min SSE 8 G 11 78°F 1015 hPa (-2.2)68°F
PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL 77 mi35 min SSE 7 G 11 80°F 1014.6 hPa69°F

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Stuart, Witham Field Airport, FL2 mi52 minSW 410.00 miFair75°F73°F94%1014.9 hPa
Fort Pierce, St. Lucie County International Airport, FL22 mi54 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds75°F70°F84%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from SUA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmS5S6S3------E15SE14
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SE7S6S5S6S6SW3S4S3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmE5SE9E7E10E12E12E14
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2 days agoE5SE4SE7SE10SE10E12
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E10E9----SE6SE5--SE5SE4SE3S3S3SE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Stuart, St. Lucie River, Florida
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Stuart
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Tue -- 04:07 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:13 AM EDT     1.04 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:28 PM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:52 PM EDT     1.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.40.20.100.10.30.60.9110.80.60.30-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.10.30.711.11.1

Tide / Current Tables for Seminole Shores, Florida
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Seminole Shores
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:01 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:01 AM EDT     3.32 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:22 PM EDT     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:41 PM EDT     3.60 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-00.20.81.62.53.13.33.12.51.60.7-0.1-0.5-0.40.1122.93.53.63.22.41.50.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.