Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sewall's Point, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 5:30PM Thursday December 13, 2018 4:37 AM EST (09:37 UTC) Moonrise 11:41AMMoonset 11:06PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 350 Am Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 350 Am Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Synopsis..Winds will increase out of the southeast today as a developing weather system takes shape over the central gulf of mexico. Advisory conditions are forecast beginning late tonight over the offshore waters. A cold front preceded by a fast moving band of showers and possibly strong lightning storms will approach the area late Friday and into Friday night, bringing gusty winds and building seas. A reinforcing front will push through the area Saturday night.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Thursday, december 13th. 46 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 33 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 27 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 19 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sewall's Point, FL
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location: 27.21, -80.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 130909
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
409 am est Thu dec 13 2018

Slight risk of severe thunderstorms Friday and Friday night...

Have multiple dependable ways to receive timely weather alerts...

Discussion
Today and tonight... Latest air force wind profile from xmr shows
increasing gradient winds in response to height falls upstream over
the gulf of mex. Warm advection along with increasing moisture will
lead to an increase in marine showers, along with the likelihood of
showers making some progress to the land areas of ecfl this morning
and into the afternoon. Coastal areas have best potential to see
some light amounts of pcpn by mid afternoon with considerable
layered cloudiness remaining in place. High temperatures will be
near normal in the lower to mid 70s. Tonight, attention will become
focused toward approaching low pressure center over the northern
gulf along with the likelihood of a developing squall line over the
eastern gulf early fri. A veering wind profile locally should keep
land areas largely free of marine based showers and it will be a
mild night with lows only in the l-m60s with increasing moisture
and cloudiness across the area.

Friday-Friday night... A vigorous shortwave digging over the southern
plains will cut off into a deep-layer closed low and transit east
toward the mississippi valley and the southern appalachians.

Secondary surface wave development still appears likely over the
northeast gulf of mexico within a region of large-scale ascent
ahead of the deepening low mid tropospheric cyclone. Models have
come into better agreement, both on the depth of the closed low
and its forward motion. Consequently, confidence in potential
impacts and timing has increased with this forecast package.

An organized line of convection should be ongoing Friday morning
over the eastern gulf of mexico as the surface frontal wave
develops and pushes inland over north florida. Broadly cyclonic
diffluent flow ahead of the closed low combined with
strengthening wind fields will help sustain the line as it pushes
onshore and overspreads the central peninsula late Friday
afternoon into Friday night (approximately 4:00 pm [nw] to 4:00
am [se] - subject to some adjustment). Damaging wind gusts remain
the primary hazard; however, increasing speed and directional
shear suggest a small threat for tornadoes will also exist,
particularly within isolated discrete cells that form ahead of the
main line of convection. At this time, a greater potential for
severe weather exists from about brevard and osceola counties
northward as outlooked within the most recent storm prediction
center (spc) day 2 outlook.

Residents and visitors within east central florida should monitor
forecast updates and remain weather aware Friday afternoon and
Friday night. More specific information about the most likely
time(s) and location(s) of impact will be provided in subsequent
forecast packages. Now is the time to ensure you have a severe
weather plan in place that includes multiple ways to receive
timely weather warnings (i.E. NOAA weather radio, wireless
emergency ALERT [wea], text messaging services or smart phone apps
from local emergency management or media outlets) especially
given the potential for hazardous weather at night.

Saturday... Offshore flow in the wake of the closed low and
accompanying surface front will shunt lingering moisture out to
sea; however, considerable clouds and at least a small chance for
showers will exist through the first half of the day, particularly
over the treasure coast. Afternoon temps will remain a few
degrees above normal before a secondary front moves across the
area Saturday night.

Extended (sun-wed)... The closed low will advance northeast toward
the mid-atlantic on Sunday before merging with northern stream
energy over new england and the canadian maritimes early next
week. Broad high pressure building into the southeast states will
generate pleasant and dry offshore flow into early next week
before winds veer northeast east mid week. Both the ECMWF and gfs
advertise seasonable temps through the period.

Aviation MainlyVFR conditions during today with considerable
cloud cover and ascd ceilings largely AOA fl040. Iso-sct showers
mainly along the coastal counties will produce local vis reductions
to 2 to 4sm along with CIGS nr fl035-045 mainly ascd with
showers.

Marine
Today and tonight... Winds will increase out of the southeast during
today as a developing weather system takes shape over the central
gulf of mexico. Advisory conditions are forecast beginning late
tonight due to strong winds beyond 20 miles from the atlantic coast.

Warm winds blowing out of the southeast will keep seas from rising
significantly until at least Friday, but deteriorating conditions
can be expected over all the waters late tonight into early
Friday.

Friday-Friday night... Poor to hazardous marine conditions continue
as a cold front approaches the peninsula from the west. High rain
chances along with the potential for severe weather across east
central florida waters through early Saturday morning. Southerly
winds increase to near 25 knots with higher gusts ahead of the
front, with seas quickly building to 4-6 feet near, up to 7 feet
well offshore ahead of the frontal passage.

Saturday-Monday... An extended period of offshore flow is expected
behind the front Saturday. West to northwest winds generally
10-15 knots nearshore and around 15 knots offshore should allow
marine conditions to improve, seas subsiding 3-4 feet nearshore
and 4-5 feet offshore (up to 6 feet through Saturday).

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 72 64 78 65 30 30 70 90
mco 74 63 80 66 20 30 60 80
mlb 76 67 82 68 40 20 40 70
vrb 77 65 81 68 30 20 30 60
lee 71 63 76 64 10 30 80 90
sfb 73 62 79 65 20 30 70 90
orl 72 63 78 65 20 30 70 80
fpr 76 65 81 69 30 20 30 60

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 am est
Saturday for flagler beach to volusia-brevard county line
20-60 nm-sebastian inlet to jupiter inlet 20-60 nm-volusia-
brevard county line to sebastian inlet 20-60 nm.

Pendergrast ulrich


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) 24 mi38 min 68°F4 ft
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 42 mi38 min ESE 16 G 21 73°F 76°F1020.5 hPa (-1.8)
SIPF1 47 mi38 min NNW 2.9 65°F 64°F1022 hPa (-1.0)
SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI 72 mi38 min ENE 12 G 12 68°F 1020.8 hPa
PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL 77 mi38 min SE 12 G 18 74°F 1019.3 hPa (-1.6)61°F

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Witham Field Airport, FL3 mi43 minE 910.00 miOvercast70°F55°F60%1020.7 hPa
Fort Pierce, St. Lucie County International Airport, FL22 mi45 minN 010.00 miOvercast60°F55°F84%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from SUA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW6--NW6NW6N4N6N6N8E5E5E4E8CalmCalmCalmSE8E4CalmE4E5E6E7E8
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NW10NW10NW6------NW8NW6NW8NW7W5NW5NW8NW4

Tide / Current Tables for Seminole Shores, Florida (2)
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Seminole Shores
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Thu -- 05:18 AM EST     0.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:36 AM EST     3.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:58 PM EST     0.77 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:06 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:55 PM EST     2.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.31.81.30.80.60.711.62.22.7332.82.31.81.30.90.80.91.31.82.32.6

Tide / Current Tables for Eden, Nettles Island, Indian River, Florida
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Eden
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:37 AM EST     1.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:24 AM EST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:10 PM EST     1.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:04 PM EST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:06 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.9110.90.80.70.60.50.40.50.60.70.911.11.110.90.80.70.60.60.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.