Saturday, April29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sewall's Point, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 7:54PM Saturday April 29, 2017 7:30 AM EDT (11:30 UTC) Moonrise 8:39AMMoonset 10:32PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 430 Am Edt Sat Apr 29 2017
Today..Southeast winds 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out 60 Nm- 430 Am Edt Sat Apr 29 2017
Synopsis..The atlantic high pressure ridge axis will remain north of florida through Monday. Winds will veer to south and southwest north of sebastian inlet Tuesday as a weak low pressure trough moves into north florida and stalls out. Winds will back to southeast Wednesday as the atlantic ridge rebuilds northward. A moderate to fresh southeast breeze will result in deteriorating conditions for small craft operating this weekend into Monday, as seas gradually build through the period.
Gulf stream hazards.none. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Thursday april 27th. 42 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 27 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sewall's Point, FL
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location: 27.21, -80.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 290847
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
445 am edt Sat apr 29 2017

Discussion
A hot and dry weekend will bring april to a close...

current... Goes-16 fog and 3.9um IR channels indicate low clouds
appear to be thinning some compared to a few hours ago when they
first formed, while some thin ci continues to stream overhead as
well. A few upstream CU lines are showing up on radar/satellite
upstream over the atlantic, however echoes are AOB 5 dbz.

Today-tonight... Surface to mid level atlantic ridge will remain in
firm control of the local weather pattern. Breezy, humid SE flow
will be a little stronger today than Friday, as indicated by drwp
showing a solid 20kt of SE flow (with some nocturnal enhancement)
through about 4-5kft. This should hold MAX temps down a few degrees
below Friday's readings, while keeping overnight mins quite warm,
especially along the coast. M-u80s/m70s along the coast, and
l90s/l70s inland. Added a small nocturnal coastal pop for martin
and saint lucie counties late tonight.

Sunday-Monday... Broad h100-h70 high pres ridge draped over the deep
south/gomex will be the primary wx feature for central fl to begin
the upcoming week. Pattern will begin to shift on Mon as a dvlpg
storm system over the tx plains is fed by a highly amplified h30-h20
jet pattern extending from the desert SW into the central plains.

The ascending left exit region of a 140kt meridional jet will couple
with the ascending right entrance region of a 110kt zonal jet to
deepen the storm system as it lifts into the midwest by daybreak
mon, then acrs the great lakes Mon night. The system will drive a
cold front into the deep south that will begin to erode the wrn
flank of the atlc ridge, while forcing low/mid lvl flow to veer from
se to s.

Brisk s/se flow will prevail thru the h100-h70 lyr, generating a
warm air advection pattern that will keep temps AOA climo avg. Max
temps in m/u80s along the coast and u80s/l90s interior. Min temps in
the u60s/l70s.

Position of the ridge axis will maintain a stout h85-h70 subsidence
inversion that will keep the local airmass well capped on Sunday.

Even so, temps in the u80s/l90s over the interior could reach their
convective triggers, allowing a few shras dvlp, especially as fcst
pwat values increase to 1.25"-1.50" as the SE flow taps a pocket of
enhanced moisture over the greater antilles.

Precip chances will increase on Monday as the storm system deepens
and pulls its cold front into north fl. Strong low lvl convergence
anticipated Mon aftn/evng as the trof and ridge boundaries interact,
but mid/upr lvl support will be weak and disorganized give the
distance separating the center of the low and the SRN extension of
its frontal trof. Will cap pops at 30 pct, but will introduce slgt
chc of tsras as the southerly flow likely will allow MAX temps to
reach their convective triggers, while moisture advection ahead of
the trof itself will push pwat values into the 1.50"-1.75" range.

Tuesday-Friday... Broad mid lvl troffing will dominate the low/mid
lvl wx pattern over the eastern CONUS into late week. As the initial
storm system lifts north into canada by wed, the troffing pattern
left in its wake will combine with additional jet energy working its
way east from the central/eastern pacific that will allow a second
low pressure system to dvlp over the mid south by midweek. Global
models suggest the SRN extent of the attendant mid lvl trof will
extend will into the NRN gomex, suggesting the second system will
take a track much further SE than the first system. This will keep
the WRN flank of the atlc ridge disorganized and shunted east of
bermuda as the sfc low tracks up the mid atlc/new england region
thru late week, while simultaneously giving it the opportunity for
it to crank a new frontal boundary into central fl.

Gfs tracks the system more to the south than the ecmwf, but is a bit
more aggressive than ECMWF wrt its more organized sfc low and more
amplified mid lvl trof, but both indicate a new frontal boundary and
its associated moisture band working its way thru into central fl on
fri. Extended numerical guidance agrees that moisture will be
sufficient to support isold/sct pops thru the latter half of next
week.

Aviation Areal expanse of MVFR CIGS bkn012-020 which prompted
earlier afd update have decreased as stratus has thinned and broken
up some. Expect prevailingVFR with only spotty MVFR CIGS north of
lee-orl-tix through about 10z.

Marine Today-tonight... A moderate to fresh SE breeze of 15-20kt
will keep seas 3-4ft near shore and 4-5ft offshore today, building
as high as 6ft beyond 20nm by tonight. For the time being, the scec
will only be valid south of sipf1 beyond 20nm for today, but will
likely be expanded north across the remaining 20-60nm legs and
inside of 20nm south of sipf1 by tonight.

Monday-Monday night... Broad storm system dvlpg over the tx plains
will lift into the upr midwest and acrs the great lakes, dragging a
cold front thru the deep south and into N fl. Moderate to fresh s/se
breeze will continue through the evng, gradually diminishing to a
gentle to moderate s/sw breeze in the predawn hrs Tue mrng as the
trof erodes the WRN flank of the atlc ridge. Seas 4-5ft nearshore
and 5-6ft offshore... Up to 7ft in the gulf stream. Slgt chc shras
thru the day, increasing to a chc of shras aft sunset with the
approach of the front... Slgt chc of tsras moving offshore Mon evng.

Tuesday-Wednesday... Weak frontal boundary will push into central fl
and washout. Winds shifting back to a light to gentle s/se breeze by
early Tue aftn, bcmg a gentle to moderate breeze by sunset Wed as
the post frontal ridge bridges the trof axis and reinforces the atlc
ridge. Seas 3-4t nearshore and 5-6ft offshore at daybreak tue,
subsiding to 2-3ft nearshore and 3-4ft offshore by sunset tue, contg
into wed.

Fire weather This afternoon... Marginally low minimum rh values of
35-40 percent expected late this afternoon from lake and western
seminole/orange counties, southward along the kissimmee river basin
in osceola and okeechobee counties. While min rh and/or erc values
are forecast to remain just outside of critical levels, sustained
winds of 15-20 mph gusting to around 25 mph are anticipated today.

As discussed on Friday, while explicit rfw criteria may not quite be
reached, the fire danger remains "high" to "very high", especially
with today's forecast wind speeds/gusts.

Sunday/Monday... Brisk SE sfc/transport flow on Sun veering to S on
mon will advect sufficient low lvl moisture acrs east central fl to
keep min rh values abv 40pct. Even so, the local fire danger will
remain high as the fresh transport breeze and aftn temps AOA avg
work to produce very good to excellent dispersion. Precip chances
creeping up thru Mon as a weak frontal boundary approaches the area.

Rain will remain more the exception than the rule, however, with
pops AOB 30pct into early next week. Slgt chc for tsras on mon.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Dab 86 73 84 71 / 10 10 10 10
mco 93 71 88 70 / 10 10 20 10
mlb 86 75 85 72 / 10 10 10 10
vrb 86 74 84 73 / 10 10 10 10
lee 94 72 90 72 / 10 10 20 10
sfb 91 71 88 70 / 10 10 20 10
orl 92 72 88 71 / 10 10 20 10
fpr 86 74 84 72 / 10 10 20 20

Mlb watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term/aviation... Cristaldi
long term/impact wx... Bragaw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) 24 mi31 min 77°F5 ft
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 42 mi43 min ESE 16 G 19 78°F 79°F1020.9 hPa73°F
SIPF1 47 mi31 min SE 16 77°F 1021 hPa (+1.0)
SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI 72 mi31 min SE 8 G 8.9 75°F 1020.9 hPa (+1.1)71°F
PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL 77 mi49 min E 8.9 G 16 79°F 1019.3 hPa72°F

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Stuart, Witham Field Airport, FL3 mi44 minSE 107.00 miA Few Clouds77°F73°F89%1020.7 hPa
Fort Pierce, St. Lucie County International Airport, FL22 mi38 minSE 1010.00 miFair78°F71°F79%1020.2 hPa

Wind History from SUA (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmSE6SE8SE12SE12SE16
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--S6S7SE6S6SE9S6S4S4Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalm3W7SE9E10SE14--SE10SE12SE12SE10SE10--S6S5S7S6S4S4S3S3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Sewall Point, St. Lucie River, Florida
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Sewall Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:42 AM EDT     1.28 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:21 AM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:55 PM EDT     1.17 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:42 PM EDT     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.31.10.90.50.2-0-0.2-0.10.10.50.81.11.21.10.80.40.1-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.30.10.5

Tide / Current Tables for Eden, Nettles Island, Indian River, Florida
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Eden
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:04 AM EDT     1.34 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:42 AM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:17 PM EDT     1.22 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:03 PM EDT     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.81.21.31.310.70.30.1-0.1-0.100.40.711.21.210.60.2-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.4-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.