Wednesday, November22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Breeze Park, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:28PM Wednesday November 22, 2017 7:44 AM EST (12:44 UTC) Moonrise 10:04AMMoonset 8:59PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 358 Am Est Wed Nov 22 2017
Today..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Chance of showers.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 358 Am Est Wed Nov 22 2017
Synopsis..A weak frontal boundary will stall over the local atlantic waters today then low pressure is forecast to develop over the eastern gulf of mexico tonight and Thursday. The low will slowly move northeast across the florida peninsula Friday. Numerous showers with embedded storms are forecast Thursday into Friday. A cold front will bring drier air on northwest flow this weekend.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday november 20th. 45 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 33 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 28 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 20 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Breeze Park, FL
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location: 27.25, -80.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 220935
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
435 am est Wed nov 22 2017

Discussion
High rain chances for thanksgiving day into Friday...

currently... Weak frontal boundary is shifting back south across the
area and is still producing some isolated showers near the cape.

However, should see this activity end over land areas before dawn.

Hrrr local WRF guidance indicating greatest coverage of stratus and
fog will transition southward with this boundary through early
morning into osceola okeechobee counties and the treasure coast
toward daybreak. There is still potential for locally dense fog
across the region, especially across aforementioned area through
early morning, with fog and stratus then burning off by late
morning.

Today-tonight... Weak quasi-stationary front will remain across the
florida peninsula today. Area will be in a bit of a lull between S w
that has exited well northeast of the area, and next approaching
disturbance ahead of developing S W trough over the gulf. Models
indicate a decrease in overall moisture with pw values around 1.2-
1.3 inches, and MOS pops as well as hrrr local WRF guidance all
indicate conditions will be mostly dry today. Best chance for
isolated showers look to exist across inland areas along a weak sea
breeze that will push inland this afternoon. Have therefore limited
rain chances to 20 percent for locations west of i-95. Some weak
instability will exist across the area as temperatures warm into the
upper 70s to low 80s this afternoon, but thunderstorm chances are
too low to mention.

Front begins to shift back north across the area into tonight as mid
level trough induces a weak low along the boundary, across the
eastern gulf. Moisture gradually increases with E SE flow
strengthening overnight. This should allow for isolated to scattered
onshore moving showers along the coast, and additional shower
development from weak low level convergence along the northward
moving front. Thunderstorm potential continues to remain low
overnight, but could see isolated storms push into lake county near
the front closer to daybreak. Fog potential looks low with
increasing boundary layer winds, but developing stratus will be
possible overnight.

Thu-fri... A slow moving upper trough over the gulf of mexico will
slowly translate east across fl and weaken by Fri night. At the
surface, low pressure along the old frontal boundary over the
eastern gulf will eventually push across cent fl on Friday and
both GFS and ECMWF agree with this scenario. Low pressure moving
out of the gulf and across fl always gets our attention for severe
weather potential. In this case, considerable clouds will limit
heating instability and wind fields are not very strong.

Nonetheless, temps aloft will be cold (-11c Thu and -13c Fri at
500mb) so cannot rule out a few strong storms. Have increased
rain chances for both thanksgiving day and Friday with 70-80
percent Thu and 60-70 percent fri.

Sat-tue... Cooler and drier airmass will overspread the area this
weekend on northwest flow as high pressure builds SE from the
upper plains. Highs in the low to mid 70s thru Monday with lows
in the low to mid 50s Sunday morning with some upper 40s Monday
morning ESP north of I 4. There may be some isolated coastal
showers that cross the coast mon-tue as flow veers out of the
east.

Aviation Ifr MVFR conditions in stratus and patchy areas of fog
will be favored over interior TAF locations and across the treasure
coast through early this morning. Should then see improving
conditions toVFR by late morning as fog lifts and burns off from
daytime heating. Rain chances will remain low today through this
evening, and then increase overnight as moisture increases leading
to isolated to scattered showers developing overnight.

Increasing boundary layer winds look to preclude any fog mention for
tonight, but stratus will be possible producing ifr MVFR CIGS late
this evening into the overnight.

Marine
Today-tonight... Front shifting south across the waters this morning
will lead to a northerly flow up to 10-15 knots, becoming northeast
by late afternoon as boundary stalls. Winds will then continue to
veer to the E SE tonight as front shifts back northward, with wind
speeds remaining around 10-15 knots. Seas will range from 3-5 feet.

Thu-sun... Low pressure will slowly move E NE from the eastern gulf
of mexico Thu and across central fl Friday. This will promote a
south to southeast wind flow over the local atlantic waters of 10-15
knots. But the old boundary may drop back in to our northern
waters Friday and produce a wedge of north to northeast winds
along the volusia coast. Regardless, there will be numerous
showers and embedded storms thu-fri. Once the low pressure pulls
east of the area Saturday, a drier NW flow will overspread the
waters and build seas to 6 feet in the gulf stream this weekend.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 75 63 74 63 10 40 70 60
mco 80 64 77 63 20 20 70 60
mlb 79 67 79 66 10 30 70 50
vrb 80 67 79 65 10 30 70 50
lee 79 63 74 62 20 30 70 60
sfb 79 63 76 63 10 30 70 60
orl 80 64 77 63 20 20 70 60
fpr 80 66 80 64 10 30 70 50

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term... Weitlich
long term... .Kelly


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) 21 mi45 min 76°F4 ft
SIPF1 44 mi30 min NNW 7 70°F 71°F1015 hPa
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 45 mi45 min W 1.9 G 2.9 71°F 79°F1014.4 hPa (+0.5)69°F
SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI 75 mi45 min ESE 5.1 G 6 74°F 1013.7 hPa (+0.7)
PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL 80 mi45 min NNW 5.1 G 6 72°F 1013.3 hPa (+0.8)68°F

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Witham Field Airport, FL5 mi55 minN 07.00 miClear68°F66°F94%1013.9 hPa
Fort Pierce, St. Lucie County International Airport, FL19 mi52 minNW 40.50 miFog65°F64°F100%1013.8 hPa

Wind History from SUA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10
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S8SE7SE8SE8S6SE6SE7--E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmSW3SW3NW3Calm
1 day agoNE12
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2 days agoCalmW4W5W8W10W10W10W10W10W5W5SW5SW5W3CalmNW5N7N10
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G17

Tide / Current Tables for Jensen Beach, Indian River, Florida
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Jensen Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:34 AM EST     1.21 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:10 AM EST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:03 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:09 PM EST     1.28 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:39 PM EST     0.64 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:58 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.21.10.90.70.50.40.30.40.60.811.21.31.21.110.80.70.70.60.70.81

Tide / Current Tables for South Fork, St. Lucie River, Florida
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South Fork
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:45 AM EST     1.12 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:39 AM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:03 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:23 PM EST     1.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:13 PM EST     0.68 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:59 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.11.11.10.90.80.60.50.40.40.50.70.91.11.21.21.110.90.80.70.70.70.80.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.