Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Breeze Park, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 5:29PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 3:42 PM EST (20:42 UTC) Moonrise 4:02PMMoonset 3:59AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 323 Pm Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..North winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 7 to 9 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Chance of showers.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 323 Pm Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis..A cold front will pass over the waters through tonight turning winds northerly. A high pressure ridge will build into the southeast states through mid week. Northerly winds will continue through Wednesday, become northeast Thursday, and east by Friday. Poor to hazardous boating conditions are expected to develop by late week as easterly winds increase and seas build. Then a prolonged period of offshore flow is expected to begin this weekend.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Tuesday, november 20th. 46 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 33 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 31 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 22 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 14 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Breeze Park, FL
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location: 27.25, -80.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 202014
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
314 pm est Tue nov 20 2018

Discussion
Current-tonight... Scattered-numerous showers and isolated storms
were observed this morning into early this afternoon from kissimmee
to titusville northward associated with a pre-frontal trough and
shortwave energy moving across this area. Subsidence behind these
features has brought precip mostly to an end over these areas but a
few sprinkles will remain possible through late this afternoon.

As of 2 p.M. The pre-frontal trough is analyzed just north of
melbourne with the main cold front still lingering across georgia
and the fl panhandle. Convergence along the pre-frontal trough and
lift provided by the shortwave will keep a chance of showers and
slight chance of storms through this evening from melbourne to lake
kissimmee southward. The main cold front will begin working its way
through the area this evening and overnight tonight bringing in some
cooler and drier air into east central florida with cloud cover
gradually decreasing from north to south. Low temperatures will
drop into the mid-upper 50s across the interior and northern
locations. Areas along the space and treasure coasts will see temps
in the low-mid 60s.

Wednesday... A much drier air mass will continue to filter into the
area as high pressure builds in behind the cold front. Mostly sunny
skies are expected with forecast soundings showing substantial
drying aloft. However, veering of the winds along the coast is
expected to bring a slight increase in cloud cover by bringing some
marine stratocu onshore. Despite plenty of sunshine, temperatures
will "only" top out in the low-mid 70s across the north with weak
cold advection in place. Upper 70s to near 80 can be expected
farther south.

Thursday-Friday (modified)... Strong high pressure building toward
the mid atlantic will nose down the eastern seaboard and lead to
strengthening onshore flow late this week. Meanwhile, coastal
troughing offshore northeast florida will sharpen as energy
embedded within the southern jet stream transits the gulf and into
the atlantic. As a result, shower coverage is forecast to
increase, particularly over the atlantic and coastal counties,
beginning with volusia on thanksgiving aftn then spreading south
to brevard and treasure coast Thu night and Friday. Will carry
the highest pops there and along the coast as breezy east winds
push showers toward the mainland.

Saturday-Monday (previous)... An active southern jet stream is
forecast to persist into the extended as several shortwaves become
embedded within fast and mainly zonal flow over the conus. While
models agree on the large scale pattern, uncertainty in both the
timing and strength of individual features remain higher than
usual. For now, low pops were retained into early next week.

Focused higher precip chances on Saturday with this forecast
package, when a sharp mid and upper level trough triggers low
pressure along the gulf coast and over the southeast.

Aviation
Showers are gradually winding down from north to south across the
area, but some pesky low stratus is lingering from ism-tix
northward. Confidence on the duration of these low ceilings is
fairly low, and the tafs may be a little too optimistic. From mlb-
sua a chance of showers and slight thunder chance will continue
through this evening. Frontal boundary moving through this evening
and tonight will bring in some drier air withVFR conditions
prevailing tonight through Wednesday afternoon.

Marine
Tonight-Wednesday... Seas of 3-4 ft can be expected in the
nearshore waters tonight subsiding to 2-3 ft on Wednesday. 4-5
ft seas beyond 20 nautical miles tonight will subside to 3-4 ft on
Wednesday. Winds will be northerly around 10-12 kt during this
period.

Thu-fri... A period of hazardous marine conditions is expected to
develop late this week as strong high pressure builds down the
eastern seaboard and tightens the local pressure gradient.

Meanwhile, a developing and strengthening coastal trough offshore
northeast florida will bring increasing rain chances. Main window
of concern begins late Thursday night and continues through Friday
night as winds up to 20 knots build seas to 10 feet offshore.

Sat-sun... Conditions expected to remain poor to hazardous,
particularly offshore, as winds rapidly swing around to the south
and southwest in advance of a developing low pressure system over
the gulf coast.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 57 74 56 74 0 0 10 30
mco 58 77 56 76 0 0 0 20
mlb 63 77 59 77 10 0 10 20
vrb 64 78 60 78 20 0 10 20
lee 55 76 54 74 0 0 0 20
sfb 58 77 56 75 0 0 0 20
orl 59 77 58 75 0 0 0 20
fpr 63 79 59 78 20 10 10 20

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term aviation... Combs
radar impact wx... .Kelly


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) 21 mi42 min 78°F3 ft
SIPF1 44 mi42 min WSW 8.9 77°F 78°F1017 hPa (-2.0)
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 45 mi42 min SSE 8.9 G 11 80°F 82°F1017.2 hPa (-1.9)
SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI 75 mi42 min SSW 9.9 G 11 79°F 1016.8 hPa (-1.9)
PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL 80 mi66 min SE 8 G 11 81°F 1016.4 hPa71°F

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Witham Field Airport, FL5 mi55 minW 87.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F64°F55%1016.6 hPa
Fort Pierce, St. Lucie County International Airport, FL19 mi49 minSW 610.00 miA Few Clouds81°F68°F65%1016 hPa

Wind History from SUA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8NE8NE5Calm54SE5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3SE5S6SW7W5W6W8
1 day agoSE8SE5SE5CalmCalmCalm4E5SE7W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm444444E6NE8
2 days agoNE6NE6NE5NE5NE5NE4E4E6E5E5E7E4E4CalmCalmCalmNW4--SE9E10E8E6E4E9

Tide / Current Tables for Jensen Beach, Indian River, Florida
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Jensen Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:35 AM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:59 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:26 AM EST     1.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:01 PM EST     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:34 PM EST     1.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.50.40.40.50.711.21.31.31.21.10.90.70.60.50.60.811.21.31.31.21

Tide / Current Tables for South Fork, St. Lucie River, Florida
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South Fork
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:03 AM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:59 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:41 AM EST     1.23 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:29 PM EST     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:49 PM EST     1.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.50.40.40.40.60.811.21.21.210.90.70.60.50.50.70.811.21.21.11

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.