Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Siesta Key, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:00PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 8:20 AM EST (13:20 UTC) Moonrise 6:55AMMoonset 5:50PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ853 Coastal Waters From Englewood To Tarpon Springs Fl Out 20 Nm- 332 Am Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Today..Northeast winds around 15 knots then becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tonight..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to around 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Wednesday night..North winds around 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Thursday..Northeast winds around 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Thursday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 332 Am Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis..High pressure north of the region will keep a northeast wind flow in place across the waters today. A cold front will push across the waters on Wednesday with increasing northwest winds and building seas. Advisory conditions will likely develop over the coastal waters Wednesday and Wednesday night. Winds and seas will gradually subside on Thursday, with no hazards expected Friday and Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Siesta Key, FL
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location: 27.3, -82.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 161144
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
644 am est Tue jan 16 2018

Aviation
Vfr conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with a mid
level cloud deck breaking up through the afternoon.

Prev discussion issued 309 am est Tue jan 16 2018
short term (today-Wednesday)...

high amplitude pattern persists over the CONUS with a deep
l W trough over the eastern half of north america... And a
sharp u l ridge over the u.S. And canadian rockies. A strong
u l disturbance will dig down the backside of the u l
trough today through Wednesday tracking from the mid
missouri valley to the mid atlantic coast.

Surface high pressure will hold over west central and
southwest florida today with mostly sunny to partly cloudy
skies and moderating temperatures. Highs will run from the
mid 60s north to the mid 70s south.

A cold front, associated with the u l disturbance
approaching the mid atlantic coast, will push across the
eastern gulf of mexico and florida on Wednesday with much
colder drier air advecting across the region on gusty north
to northwest winds. Deep layer dry air over the region
combined with weak low level convergence will lead to a dry
frontal passage with only a slight increase in cloudiness as
the front pushes across west central and southwest florida.

However, passage of the front will be very noticeable as
winds increase from the northwest in the wake of the front
with strong cold air advection through the afternoon across
the forecast area... With temperatures holding steady or
falling during the afternoon hours.

Long term (Wednesday night through the weekend)...

a significant cool down is expected at the start of the
long range period. This will occur as a powerful cold front
surges across the region as a deep trough moves off the
carolinas coast. The front will usher in an arctic airmass
with much colder and drier conditions expected. This will be
the main feature of note heading into the long range
period.

The cold front will be on its way south across the florida
peninsula Wednesday night with sharply colder air moving in
by early Thursday. Guidance has recently come in a shade
colder than the last couple of days, with lows ranging from
around 20 degrees along the nature coast and adjacent inland
areas, to the upper 20s to low 30s along and just south of
the i-4 corridor, and middle upper 30s southward. Despite
the long duration cold snap we had at the start of the
month, this would actually be the coldest night we have seen
thus far this winter season. Freeze warnings of the normal
and hard variety will likely be needed in future forecasts.

Wind chill advisories may also be required as a large area
of wind chills in the teens appears probable.

As cold advection persists during the day on Thursday,
highs will creep into the 40s and low to mid 50s most areas.

The good news is, while this airmass will be very cold,
most models suggest we will modify fairly quickly. One more
night of near freezing temperatures will unfold Thursday
night into Friday, but by the weekend, we will see rising
heights and rising temperatures with highs back to the 70s.

In fact, some areas may reach the lower 80s Sunday and
Monday.

A generally dry forecast is expected throughout the long
term period, but models do suggest a cold front may impact
the region early next week. For now, will introduce low
chances for rain as confidence in timing and location
remains very low.

Marine...

benign conditions are expected on the waters today. A cold
front will move across the waters on Wednesday with small
craft advisory conditions possible in the wake of the
front... Spreading across the waters from north to south
through the day. Seas will also build and will likely become
hazardous to small craft late Wednesday and Wednesday
night. Winds will begin to weaken on Thursday and veer to
the northeast which will allow seas to gradually subside,
with no hazards expected Friday and Saturday.

Fire weather...

no fire weather hazards are expected today or Wednesday as
the relative humidity is expected to remain above critical
levels each day.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 69 50 62 32 0 0 0 0
fmy 75 52 70 39 0 0 0 0
gif 70 47 66 33 0 0 0 0
srq 69 51 63 35 0 0 0 0
bkv 69 42 61 26 0 0 0 0
spg 68 52 62 38 0 0 0 0

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Short term aviation marine fire weather... 27 shiveley
mid term long term decision support... 27 shiveley


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VENF1 - Venice, FL 17 mi80 min NE 9.9 G 14 50°F 59°F1026.7 hPa (+0.9)47°F
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 21 mi110 min ENE 12 G 16 63°F
PMAF1 23 mi50 min 48°F 54°F1026.9 hPa
MTBF1 25 mi50 min ENE 15 G 17 51°F 1027.8 hPa
42098 28 mi50 min 59°F2 ft
CLBF1 31 mi86 min NE 2.9 G 7 52°F 1026.8 hPa
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 39 mi50 min NE 5.1 G 8.9 50°F 57°F1027.8 hPa
MCYF1 43 mi50 min 58°F
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 44 mi56 min NE 7 G 8.9
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 44 mi62 min N 7 G 9.9
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 49 mi50 min NE 6 G 9.9 49°F 55°F1027.8 hPa

Wind History for C-Cut, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sarasota / Bradenton, Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport, FL7 mi27 minNE 710.00 miFair50°F46°F86%1026.8 hPa
Venice Municipal Airport, FL17 mi25 minNE 1010.00 mi52°F48°F88%1027.1 hPa

Wind History from SRQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE10NE9N10N8N9NE10NE11
G15
N7N11N7NE4NE8NE8E8NE10NE8NE6NE8NE6NE7NE7NE6NE7NE7
1 day agoNE9N7NE7N10N11N12N8NE8N10N6N6N5N5N6NE7NE7N6N8N7N10N8NE8NE8NE9
2 days agoN6NW13
G18
NW12NW15
G24
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NW11NW16
G20
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G17
N14N10N11N9NE7NE13
G17
NE7NE8N8N6N6N8NE7

Tide / Current Tables for Sarasota, Sarasota Bay, Florida
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Sarasota
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:54 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:15 AM EST     -0.58 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:49 PM EST     1.04 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:48 PM EST     0.85 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:49 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:58 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 11:16 PM EST     1.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.81.51.20.70.3-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.5-0.30.10.50.81110.90.90.90.91.21.51.71.9

Tide / Current Tables for Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge), Florida Current
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Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge)
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:50 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:51 AM EST     -1.55 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:55 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:52 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:05 PM EST     1.53 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:23 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:44 PM EST     -0.19 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:49 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:58 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:04 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 10:43 PM EST     1.15 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.5-0.1-0.7-1.2-1.5-1.5-1.4-1.1-0.60.10.81.31.51.410.50.1-0.1-0.2-00.30.71.11.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.