Thursday, November22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Lucie Village, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:28PM Thursday November 22, 2018 5:21 AM EST (10:21 UTC) Moonrise 5:24PMMoonset 5:58AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 434 Am Est Thu Nov 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Saturday afternoon...
Today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 15 knots toward Sunrise. Seas 3 to 4 feet, building to 5 to 7 feet around Sunrise. A dominant period 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Friday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Friday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south after midnight. Seas 8 to 11 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 434 Am Est Thu Nov 22 2018
Synopsis..High pressure over the southeast u.s. Will build over the local atlantic waters today. A weak low pressure trough will develop just off the florida east coast late tonight into Friday. This will result in a fresh to strong northeast breeze and building seas with marginal gale conditions north of sebastian inlet. There will also be numerous showers and squalls with embedded Thunderstorms late tonight into Friday. A prolonged period of offshore flow is expected to begin Saturday into early next week, with seas slow to subside early this weekend.
Gulf stream hazards..Northeast winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots with seas building up to 7 feet toward Sunset offshore volusia county. Dangerous boating conditions will spread south toward sebastian inlet tonight, with winds increasing to 20 to 25 knots and seas building as to 7 to 10 feet late. Wind gusts may approach gale force late, especially north of cape canaveral. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Tuesday, november 20th. 46 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 33 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 31 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 22 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 14 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Lucie Village, FL
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location: 27.48, -80.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 221018
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
515 am est Thu nov 22 2018

Discussion
Dangerous boating and beach conditions will develop across the
waters of volusia and brevard counties late today through Friday...

today-tonight... A notable, cold high pressure system over the
northeastern CONUS will wedge down the eastern seaboard over the
next 24 hours. Meanwhile, a short wave trough embedded within fast
zonal flow aloft will migrate east from the gulf coast and cross
north florida overnight. This feature will aid in the development of
an inverted surface trough just offshore while the nearly 1040mb
high pressure ridge builds well to our north. The resultant
tightened pressure gradient will bring increased low-level onshore
flow, moisture, and convergence over the atlantic waters and
adjacent land areas, particularly from about CAPE canaveral
northward. Favorable lift and cool temperatures aloft along and
ahead of the aforementioned short wave trough will bring a small
threat for lightning to these same areas.

A sharp gradient in pops remains in play both today and tonight,
with guidance focused on volusia and northern brevard counties and
their adjacent atlantic waters for the best rain coverage (50-70%)
this evening and overnight. Little QPF is indicated across
okeechobee county and the treasure coast, so pops were dropped below
mentionable levels (20%) in these areas.

Friday-Sunday... Near gale event, primarily impacting volusia and
northern brevard counties, will be ongoing with the short wave
trough axis over north florida sliding quickly eastward. The local
pressure gradient will weaken significantly beginning Friday evening
as the large surface high to the north moves offshore, allowing the
inverted surface trough to lift northward. A negatively tilted mid
level trough centered well to the NW will carry a weak surface low
across the northern gomex gulf coast Friday night, which will then
dampen out as it moves ene across the florida panhandle by Saturday
afternoon evening. Residual surface trough will sag into south
florida Saturday night and dampen out Sunday, ahead of a more
significant cold front approaching from the nw.

The main sensible weather will occur on Friday, with scattered
showers, numerous across volusia north brevard during the day,
tapering off by late evening as low level winds subside and then
quickly veer to SE and s-sw. Small (20-30 percent) threat for
showers Saturday ahead of the fast-moving surface low, which
will degenerate into a trough which sags through ecfl overnight.

Perhaps a small diurnal shower threat across the far south Sunday
close to the diffuse remnant trough.

Given the strong onshore winds, high seas, and astronomical high
tides, will have to consider some sort of high surf or coastal flood
product for volusia-brevard starting with the high tide cycle just
after 7 am Friday morning.

Max temps in the l70s north to near 80f far south Friday, u70s to
l80s Saturday, and l80s areawide Sunday. Mins generally in the 60s.

Monday-Thursday... A cool down is on tap beginning Monday night
behind the next frontal passage, which the GFS advertises to occur
about 12 hours faster than the ecm. Regardless of the exact fropa
timing, expect low end chance pops at best as any area of mid upper
level forcing looks to be broad and stay generally to our north.

Model guidance shows the front stalling out across south florida
late Tuesday. The models are suggesting potential for low latitude
(boc southern gomex) baroclinic surface wave development from an
embedded mid level southern stream trough from mid to late next
week. While strength timing is essentially a dart throw in the 6-8
day time frame, given how energetic the southern jet stream is,
there looks to be some potential there. Because of this, have shown
some s-n increase in rain chances for next Wednesday-Thursday.

Otherwise, MAX temps in the u60s and 70s with mins in the 50s (u40s
across the far north Tuesday night), warming 1-2 cats by Thursday.

Aviation Vfr for most sites through this afternoon. Conditions
will deteriorate this evening and overnight as an inverted trough
develops offshore east central florida and leads to scattered to
numerous showers over the atlantic waters. The greatest chance for
reductions in visibility and ceilings due to onshore-moving shra
looks to be close to the coast and north of kmlb. Meanwhile, given
the presence of the inverted trough, MVFR (perhaps even ifr) stratus
ceilings could develop overnight; however, confidence remains low at
this time.

Marine
Today-tonight... A large, strengthening high pressure ridge building
down the eastern seaboard and a developing inverted surface trough
will tighten the local pressure gradient over the next 24 hours.

These features will bring increasing winds and rain chances over the
next 24 hours, particularly north of sebastian inlet. A surge of
northeast winds up to 20 knots is expected to build initially across
the volusia waters this afternoon, then spread south into the
brevard waters this evening. In response, seas will build up to 5-7
feet nearshore and 6-9 feet offshore north of sebastian inlet.

Conditions will deteriorate further toward sunrise.

Farther to the south over the treasure coast, at the base of the
inverted trough, winds will remain considerably lighter at around 10
knots. Seas will build from the northeast late tonight, 3-5 feet
nearshore and up to 6 feet offshore.

Friday-Monday... Near gale event for volusia-brevard will continue
Friday with very hazardous wind and sea conditions and gusts to gale
force, especially in numerous onshore moving showers squalls. While
winds quickly veer and decrease starting Friday night, a residual
swell will keep hazardous seas in place through Saturday, before
conditions abate Sunday-Monday in protracted period of offshore flow.

Thanks for extensive marine coastal hazard coordination to WFO jax.

Fire weather No critical rh concerns. Unusually high afternoon
dispersion values will develop on Friday, especially across volusia
and brevard counties, due to a significant increase in gusty onshore
surface and transport winds

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 73 62 72 62 60 70 70 50
mco 76 61 76 62 20 30 40 20
mlb 77 64 76 65 20 30 50 30
vrb 78 60 78 63 10 30 40 30
lee 74 60 74 61 20 30 40 20
sfb 75 61 74 62 30 50 50 30
orl 76 61 76 62 20 40 50 20
fpr 78 60 78 62 10 20 40 20

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am est Friday
for flagler beach to volusia-brevard county line 0-20 nm-
flagler beach to volusia-brevard county line 20-60 nm.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm Friday to 4 pm est Saturday for
flagler beach to volusia-brevard county line 0-20 nm-
flagler beach to volusia-brevard county line 20-60 nm-
volusia-brevard county line to sebastian inlet 0-20 nm-
volusia-brevard county line to sebastian inlet 20-60 nm.

Gale warning from 4 am to 7 pm est Friday for flagler beach to
volusia-brevard county line 0-20 nm-flagler beach to
volusia-brevard county line 20-60 nm-volusia-brevard county
line to sebastian inlet 0-20 nm-volusia-brevard county line
to sebastian inlet 20-60 nm.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 4 am est Friday
for volusia-brevard county line to sebastian inlet 0-20 nm-
volusia-brevard county line to sebastian inlet 20-60 nm.

Small craft advisory from 4 am Friday to 4 pm est Saturday for
sebastian inlet to jupiter inlet 0-20 nm-sebastian inlet to
jupiter inlet 20-60 nm.

Short term aviation... Ulrich
long term impact wx... Cristaldi


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) 8 mi22 min 76°F3 ft
SIPF1 27 mi37 min N 16 70°F 70°F1021 hPa
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 62 mi34 min NNW 8 G 11 69°F 80°F1019.5 hPa
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 66 mi34 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 62°F 75°F1021.7 hPa
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 71 mi32 min N 12 G 16 72°F 3 ft1020 hPa58°F

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Pierce, St. Lucie County International Airport, FL3 mi29 minWNW 410.00 miFair60°F55°F86%1019.4 hPa
Vero Beach, Vero Beach Municipal Airport, FL13 mi29 minN 710.00 miFair65°F55°F73%1019.6 hPa
Witham Field Airport, FL21 mi27 minN 510.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F59°F69%1019.6 hPa

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Last 24hrNW4NW3NW4NW4N7N6N7N6NE7N8NE85N4N5CalmNW3NW3NW3NW3NW3NW4NW3NW3NW4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW4S6SW6W6SW6SW5NW7N3CalmN6N5N4N3NW3W3NW3NW4W4NW5
2 days agoCalmCalmW4W6N5NW4NE5NE4E8E6E6E4E3E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmSW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for St. Lucie, Indian River, Florida
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St. Lucie
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:41 AM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:58 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:17 AM EST     1.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:10 PM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:23 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:22 PM EST     1.44 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.30.10.10.30.611.31.51.51.41.10.90.60.50.40.50.711.31.41.41.31

Tide / Current Tables for Oslo, Indian River, Florida
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Oslo
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:58 AM EST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:58 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:35 AM EST     0.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:23 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:44 PM EST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:26 PM EST     0.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.1-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.2-0.10.10.30.40.40.30.20-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.10.10.20.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.