Thursday, April26, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Bradenton, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 8:02PM Thursday April 26, 2018 9:27 AM EDT (13:27 UTC) Moonrise 4:00PMMoonset 3:57AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ853 Coastal Waters From Englewood To Tarpon Springs Fl Out 20 Nm- 324 Am Edt Thu Apr 26 2018
Today..West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the morning. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday night..North winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..North winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday night..North winds around 15 knots then becoming northeast after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Monday..East winds around 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 324 Am Edt Thu Apr 26 2018
Synopsis.. The interaction between high pressure to our west and the slow approach of weak cold front along the northern gulf coast will shift our winds from northwesterly to west and southwesterly today. This weak front will reach the northern waters tonight and then pass through the remainder of the eastern gulf of mexico during Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bradenton, FL
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location: 27.5, -82.57     debug

Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 261137
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
737 am edt Thu apr 26 2018

Vfr is expected at all terminals during the next 24 hours.

An increase in high clouds is expected the remainder of the
day with some additional scattered fair weather CU strato-cu
clouds also developing in the 035-050 range. Light northwest
to west winds early this morning will become more west-southwest
and increase to 10 to 13 knots after 18z. Southwest winds will
diminish to 4 to 6 knots after 01z tonight. A cold front
approaching from the north will bring increasing chances for
some showers after 12z on Friday and have included vcsh at
ktpa for now.

Prev discussion issued 415 am edt Thu apr 26 2018

07z water vapor and h4 rap analysis showing a rather complex
mid and upper level synoptic pattern in place early this
morning over the conus. Several significant lobes of
shortwave energy are evident on WV imagery. The shortwave
that will evolve closest to our region today is currently
located over the ARKLATEX region, with a well- defined
subsidence drying notation on satellite imagery spreading
over the lower ms valley. This energy will quickly evolve
eastward over the deep south through the day... Passing
mainly to our north... With minimal impact to our sensible
weather later this afternoon into this evening. A second
shortwave that will impact our weather in the near-future is
dropping southward through the upper plains. This energy is
shown by nwp to quickly follow the lead shortwave described
above... Reaching the northern gulf coast during
Friday... And helping to carve out a fairly significant
synoptic trough by Friday night as it passes over the
florida peninsula and off into the atlantic early Saturday.

Wv imagery continues to show our region under a vast area of
mid upper level dry air... As sampled by the 0.67 pw value
off the 26 00z ktbw sounding profile. While some moistening
is expected today in the upper levels with the near passing
of the first shortwave, this moistening will not be
significant and with the best synoptic lift moistening
staying to our north with this shortwave, the dry air looks
to win out keeping any shower activity mainly north of our
counties later today. A slightly better chance for a few
showers along a cold front during Friday associated with the
approach of the second shortwave, but not significant, and
prob not even enough to water most lawns.

At the surface... Pressure gradient along the eastern
periphery of high pressure covering the gulf of mexico is
providing a northwesterly flow early this morning across the
fl peninsula. As a weak cold front moves along the northern
gulf coast today, reaching the western fl peninsula, our
large scale winds should shift to a more westerly or
southwesterly direction.

Short term (today through Friday)...

today... As mentioned in the synopsis. Will be watching the
evolution of a strong shortwave trough through the day as it
moves eastward from the lower ms valley over the deep south.

Nwp guidance is in very good agreement regarding the
evolution of the system and all show the main associated pv
anomaly passing to our north late this afternoon and early
evening. All significant pressure advection with this pv
anomaly also passes to our north keeping synoptic forcing
minimal down into north- central florida. Given the extent
of dry air aloft over the forecast area currently, this
near-miss of the favorable lift moistening is going to fall
short of providing the ingredients for shower chances... Even
over our far northern areas. Given the path of these
features, measurable precip looks to have a difficult time
getting much south of the i-10 corridor into this evening.

With this in mind, will keep the forecast dry for all zones
through 00z this evening. This scenario is agreed upon by
the deterministic operational runs of the major nwp members
but also by ensemble guidance packages such as the GEFS and

So... We have established that it is unlikely we will see any
rain in the forecast area today. What will the weather be
like. The answer is seasonable. The pattern will provide a
light northwest flow this morning... Transiting to a west sw
flow this afternoon through a combination of the slow
approach of a cold front to our northwest and diurnal sea-
breeze development. The onshore synoptic flow off the still
relatively cooler shelf waters will provide a west to east
temperature gradient across the region, with upper 70s to
near 80 near the coast... And lower to middle 80s along and
inland from the i- 75 corridor. Will see some passing high
clouds at times, along with a few lower cumulus forming due
to boundary layer mixing... But can prob call it mostly sunny
for much of the day.

Tonight Friday... By late evening, the initial shortwave will
be exiting to our northeast, but followed closely by a
second piece of shortwave energy dropping down into the
lower ms valley. This shortwave is a bit more broad and
taking a more southerly track which will act to begin
pushing the surface front, initially over the fl panhandle
north-central gulf, southward into the eastern gulf of
mexico north-central florida. The renewed motion is shown
the nwp to result in a narrow band of sfc-900mb fgen after
midnight from the nature coast zones out into the gulf. This
thermal circulation along with surface focus and a slow
influx of moisture aloft ahead of the approaching
shortwave PV anomaly looks to be enough this time to force a
band of showers along the front. Does not look to be
anything heavy, as the lift remains shallow, but enough to
introduce rain chances to the forecast. The rainfall probs
for measurable precip actually are fairly high off the
gefs href for the nature coast i-4 corridor through midday
Friday, but fall to near zero for probabilities of greater
then 0.25". So, should be looking at a narrow band of
showers along the front... But anything that does occur looks
to be light. Front and a few scattered showers or sprinkles
settle south of the i-4 corridor by late afternoon early
evening Friday. High temperatures generally upper 70s north
of the i- 4 corridor, and lower to middle 80s further south
where much of the day will be pre-frontal and shower free.

Long term (Friday night through Wednesday)...

by the start of the weekend, a large mid level trough will
be digging into the great lakes region, while a shortwave
rotates around the base of the trough and into the florida
peninsula. At the surface, this shortwave will give a
secondary push to the cold front across florida, bringing a
drier, but not significantly cooler airmass into the
forecast area.

Ridging aloft will shift into the great plains on Sunday
while a broad surface ridge builds over the eastern us.

This pattern will result in continued dry conditions, with
temperatures warming up slightly Sunday and Monday. The
surface ridge will shift into the western atlantic Monday
night and Tuesday, setting up easterly flow across florida.

This easterly flow will moderate temperatures slightly
Tuesday and Wednesday, with rain chances remaining minimal.


the interaction between high pressure to our west and the
slow approach of weak cold front along the northern gulf
coast will shift our winds from northwesterly to west and
southwesterly today. This weak front will reach the northern
waters tonight and then pass through the remainder of the
eastern gulf of mexico during Friday. Winds shift to the
northwest in the wake of this front, but are currently
expected to remain below advisory levels. High pressure then
builds into the central gulf of mexico this weekend,
keeping our winds generally light out of the north and

Fire weather...

no significant fire weather concerns are in the forecast
through Friday. Seasonable conditions through this evening
will be followed by the passage of a weak cold front during
Friday. A narrow band of showers is expected with this
front, but rainfall totals should be light. High pressure
and drier conditions build over the region behind this front
for the upcoming weekend.

Fog potential... Patchy ground fog is expected early this
morning across portions of the nature coast. This fog will
lift shortly after sunrise. Additional patchy fog is likely
to form after midnight tonight away from the coast, however
no significant area of widespread or dense fog are

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 79 68 79 64 0 10 40 10
fmy 83 67 85 66 0 10 20 10
gif 84 63 83 60 0 10 40 10
srq 75 69 76 65 0 10 30 10
bkv 80 62 79 58 0 20 40 0
spg 80 68 81 66 0 10 40 10

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Aviation... 57 mcmichael
synopsis short term marine fire weather... Mroczka
long term... Fleming

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PMAF1 10 mi39 min 71°F 76°F1013.9 hPa
MTBF1 11 mi39 min W 7 G 8 71°F 1014 hPa59°F
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 18 mi45 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 71°F 76°F1013.4 hPa
CLBF1 18 mi93 min W 4.1 G 8 73°F 1013 hPa
42098 20 mi27 min 74°F2 ft
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 25 mi39 min WNW 6 G 8 71°F 76°F1014 hPa
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 29 mi57 min WNW 7.8 G 12 74°F
VENF1 - Venice, FL 30 mi87 min W 8 G 8.9 71°F 76°F1013.9 hPa (+0.8)59°F
MCYF1 30 mi39 min 79°F
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 31 mi57 min W 4.1 G 7
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 36 mi39 min W 7 G 8.9 71°F 75°F1014.1 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 47 mi93 min WNW 7 G 8.9 70°F 1014.3 hPa

Wind History for C-Cut, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sarasota / Bradenton, Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport, FL7 mi34 minNW 810.00 miA Few Clouds72°F60°F66%1013.7 hPa
Albert Whitted Airport, FL19 mi34 minW 610.00 miFair72°F61°F68%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from SRQ (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW8W10W11NW12W12W12W11W13W10W10NW8NW8NW7NW7NW7NW5NW3NW6W6N5NW4NW4E3NW8
1 day agoNW8NW9NW11
2 days agoS9S10S15S15SW13SW14SW13SW12SW11SW8S10SW7S6SW7SW10S7SW9W9NW10NW8NW9NW3NW5NW9

Tide / Current Tables for Bradenton, Manatee River, Florida
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Thu -- 04:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:39 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:48 AM EDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:06 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:38 PM EDT     1.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge), Florida Current
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Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge)
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Thu -- 12:43 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:05 AM EDT     -1.15 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:05 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:27 AM EDT     1.57 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:54 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:46 PM EDT     -1.05 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:43 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:45 PM EDT     1.18 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.