Monday, August21, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Bradenton, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 8:02PM Monday August 21, 2017 11:16 PM EDT (03:16 UTC) Moonrise 5:49AMMoonset 7:10PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ853 Coastal Waters From Englewood To Tarpon Springs Fl Out 20 Nm- 838 Pm Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming east 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots then becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday night..North winds around 10 knots then becoming east after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Northeast winds around 10 knots then becoming north in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..North winds around 10 knots then becoming east around 5 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Thursday..East winds around 5 knots then becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters smooth. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..West winds around 5 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters smooth. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Friday..Northwest winds around 5 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters smooth. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 838 Pm Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
Synopsis.. A slight increase in the pressure gradient will enhance easterly surges over the gulf waters between a weak tropical wave moving into the gulf of mexico, the bermuda high pressure ridge axis nudging into the area, and another tropical wave over the bahamas. The gradient relaxes as high pressure settles over the region for the end of the week. Expect scattered to numerous storms Tuesday into late week as well.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bradenton, FL
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location: 27.5, -82.57     debug

Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 212330
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
730 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017

Update (overnight through Tuesday)
23z water vapor and h4 rap analysis shows the florida
peninsula resides between a large expanse of upper ridging
from carolinas georgia to the western atlantic... And an
upper trough retrograding westward across the
central western gulf of mexico. A swath of quite dry
mid upper level air has pivoted over the central and
southern peninsula during the past 24 hours from the se
within the large-scale flow between these two features.

This drier air as significantly held back the coverage of
storms from the i-4 corridor southward this
afternoon evening. We were actually able to mix high enough
to tap into this drier air... And evaporate quite a bit of
the cumulus field. This process that began a bit before the
effects of the passing eclipse shadow was actually enhanced
by the loss of solar insolation. An even more dramatic
decrease in cumulus coverage was evident in satellite
imagery closer to where totality passed well off to our

Have seen a few widely scattered storms the past few hours
across the nature coast where the impacts of the drier air
have not been as great today. However, the swath of drier
air will continue to pivot slowly north and northwest the
next 24 hours, and it will be these nature coast zones
(north of i-4) that see the greatest impact suppression of
storms from the dry air during Tuesday.

So, for the rest of tonight, the few isolated shower that
have been able to survive the hostile thermodynamic
environment aloft will dissipate with sunset and loss of
diurnal heating. The remainder of the overnight will see a
dry forecast, with typical august overnight temperatures.

Tuesday, the dry forecast continues over the landmass
through the morning hours, with just a slow development of a
few-sct cumulus field. As mentioned above, the driest mid-
level air will have move up over the nature coast zones to
the north of i-4, and it will be these areas that struggle
to see much in the way of showers storms during the
afternoon evening.

A renewed influx of deep moisture will be slowly trying to
move back into the central and southern part of the fl
peninsula, with greatest influence the further south and se
one travels. Therefore, isolated storms (20% pops) are
expected in and around the i-4 corridor the second half of
Tuesday, ramping up to scattered coverage (30-40%) down
toward sebring punta gorda fort myers).

Temperatures look quite warm for your Tuesday, with many
spots... Even close to the coast... Reaching the middle 90s.

Have a great evening everyone!

Aviation (22 00z through 23 00z)
Vfr conditions will prevail for all terminals through much,
if not all, of the the TAF period. Light easterly or
northeast winds overnight will continue into the daylight
hours of Tuesday, with some potential for winds to turn nw
during the afternoon at ktpa kpie ksrq. Thunderstorm
potential will still be below normal, although returning
moisture will increase the chance for a passing storm at
kpgd kfmy krsw late in the afternoon or evening. Potential
further north is still low enough to exclude form current

Prev discussion issued 351 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017
short term (tonight-Tuesday)...

one tropical wave lifting off to the NW over northern fl,
another wave in place over the eastern bahamas, and high
pressure ridging in between with a little dry slot across
the central and southern zones this afternoon. This drier
mid level air is limiting rain chances for this afternoon,
with the greatest chances in place across the nature coast.

These features will continue to shift to the W NW through
Tuesday with the dry slot lifting north and moisture
returning from the south as the tropical wave approaches and
then moves over southern fl through Tuesday. For Tuesday
afternoon, the nature coast will have low rain chances,
while the southern half of the area increases to 40-50
percent chances. Generally E NE flow will be in place
through the period, with a weak sea breeze possible near the
coast Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will be near normal
for lows, generally in the 70s, and highs will be on the
warm side in the lower to mid 90s.

Long term (Tuesday night through next Monday)...

the start of the long range period will feature a strong
upper trough centered over the great lakes with upper
level high pressure from the western CONUS into the gulf of
mexico. At the surface, high pressure will extend across the
western atlantic ocean and the gulf of mexico with a weak
tropical low across the far eastern gulf.

The forecast remains highly uncertain with respect to the
tropical low easterly wave expected to move across the
southern tip of florida or florida straits. This feature is
currently being affected by an area of drier air and weak
wind shear, which is good because it limits the potential
for this feature to strengthen into a tropical cyclone.

However, conditions may become slightly more favorable by
Wednesday. So if this low makes it into the eastern gulf of
mexico, it will have to be monitored closely. Given the
feature is generally being poorly resolved, models vary in
its position over the next 72 hours, with some solutions
showing it over the gulf and others just of the east coast
of florida. In the current forecast, we expect the low to
track across south florida, bringing greatly increased rain
chances to areas along and south of i-4. The most recent
guidance shows this low will remain a relevant feature
through the latter half of the week as it slowly meanders
either over south florida, or just off the southwest florida
coast. It GOES without saying, this will need to be watched
closely for potential tropical development. At the very
least, this feature will maintain high rain chances each day
as deep tropical moisture mingles with the seabreezes and
daytime heating. Locally heavy rainfall may also become a
concern, especially south of i-4 where the greatest qpf
signal is apparent.

Heading into the weekend, a potent shortwave is expected to
lead to a deepening of the great lakes trough, allowing a
cold front to drop southward into the southeast u.S. The
more aggressive european brings the drier post frontal air
all the way into northern florida with the more reserved gfs
confining it more to georgia and the carolinas. In both
cases, an interaction between the remnants of the tropical
disturbance and the frontal boundary will likely promote
heavy rainfall across portions of the southeastern u.S.

Including florida.

Temperatures will remain seasonal, becoming slightly cooler
for the latter half of the week into the weekend as
humidity increases.


winds will increase with an easterly surge overnight as the
area remains in weak high pressure between two tropical
waves, one over northern florida, and the other over the
eastern bahamas. The features will shift west through mid-
week, with high pressure then returning over the waters for
the end of the week. Scattered showers and storms possible
as moisture returns across the area through the rest of the
week. No headlines expected through the period.

Fire weather...

no concerns.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 78 94 78 92 10 20 10 30
fmy 77 95 77 92 10 40 40 60
gif 75 95 76 94 0 30 10 40
srq 77 95 78 92 10 20 30 30
bkv 72 95 75 94 10 10 10 20
spg 80 94 79 92 10 20 20 30

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Update aviation... Mroczka
previous discussion... Hubbard

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PMAF1 10 mi46 min 82°F 89°F1019 hPa
MTBF1 11 mi46 min ESE 9.9 G 13 86°F 1019.7 hPa
CLBF1 18 mi82 min E 4.1 G 7 88°F 1018.2 hPa
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 18 mi46 min E 5.1 G 8 86°F 89°F1020 hPa
42098 20 mi46 min 89°F1 ft
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 25 mi46 min E 2.9 G 5.1 84°F 89°F1019.8 hPa
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 29 mi46 min ESE 7.8 G 9.7 89°F
VENF1 - Venice, FL 30 mi76 min E 5.1 G 6 84°F 89°F1019.3 hPa (+1.5)71°F
MCYF1 30 mi46 min 90°F
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 31 mi58 min ENE 5.1 G 8
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 31 mi52 min E 2.9 G 7
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 36 mi46 min E 5.1 G 7 87°F 89°F1019.7 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 47 mi82 min E 6 G 8 84°F 1020 hPa

Wind History for C-Cut, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sarasota / Bradenton, Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport, FL7 mi23 minE 810.00 miFair81°F72°F74%1019.2 hPa
Albert Whitted Airport, FL19 mi23 minESE 1210.00 miFair86°F75°F70%1019.4 hPa

Wind History from SRQ (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE5SE6E6E8E6E8NE6E6E7E8E8E11E11SE10E9SE7SE8E5E8
1 day agoE3NE3NE3NE4E6E6E3NE4E3E6E6E8E5E6E7E6NE9E10E12
2 days agoCalmSE7SE5SE3CalmSE5CalmCalmCalmE3Calm4W5W8W8W9W11W10W8W7NW10NW4N4N3

Tide / Current Tables for Bradenton, Manatee River, Florida
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Mon -- 02:02 AM EDT     1.69 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:47 AM EDT     1.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:45 PM EDT     2.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:30 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge), Florida Current
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Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge)
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Mon -- 12:33 AM EDT     1.68 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:21 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:15 AM EDT     -0.46 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:09 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:42 AM EDT     1.48 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 02:42 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:34 PM EDT     -1.82 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:05 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.