Monday, December11, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Palmetto, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:38PM Monday December 11, 2017 4:16 AM EST (09:16 UTC) Moonrise 1:12AMMoonset 1:42PM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ853 Coastal Waters From Englewood To Tarpon Springs Fl Out 20 Nm- 401 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2017
Today..Northeast winds around 10 knots then becoming north in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots then becoming northwest 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Bay and inland waters rough.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds around 20 knots then becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Wednesday..North winds around 15 knots then becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots then becoming northeast around 5 knots toward morning. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday night..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots then becoming west around 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. A chance of showers.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 401 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2017
Synopsis..High pressure will continue to hold in place across the waters through early Tuesday with light winds. Another cold front will bring in increase in wind speeds later on Tuesday, and winds may briefly approach advisory levels through Tuesday night before subsiding by Wednesday morning. High pressure returns for the end of the week, with another front pushing into the area Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palmetto, FL
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location: 27.51, -82.57     debug

Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 110815
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
315 am est Mon dec 11 2017

Short term (today through Tuesday)
Morning IR and water vapor satellite imagery is showing a
cool and dry airmass in place across the area as high
pressure fills in from the gulf in the wake of the recent
cold front. Under clear skies and light winds, a strong
radiational cooling setup is allowing temperatures to drop
quickly early this morning, with freezing conditions already
being reported over parts of the nature coast and an
isolated spots farther south. Additionally, much of the area
will likely experience at least patchy frost this morning
as dewpoint depressions are already near zero. After the
cool start to the morning, the clear skies and light winds
will allow temperatures to begin to moderate from what were
seen yesterday, although afternoon highs will still be a few
degrees below normal, generally topping out in the 60s.

Lows tonight will still be cool, but not cool enough to
approach freezing, with low over the interior generally in
the low to mid 40s, and around 50 near the coast.

On Tuesday, a mid level trough swinging east through the
eastern CONUS will push a dry surface cold front into the
florida peninsula. Moisture will not have enough of an
opportunity to return before the front arrives, so rain
chances will remain minimal. Breezy northwest winds along
and behind the front will produce high surf and an increased
risk of rip currents along area beaches as well on Tuesday.

Since the cold front does not arrive until fairly late in
the day, temperatures will continue to moderate, with highs
able to reach into the upper 60s to mid 70s before the cold
air advection kicks in.

Long term (Tuesday night - Sunday)
A highly amplified upper air pattern featuring strong upper
level ridging over the western u.S. And strong upper level
troughing over the eastern u.S. Will remain in place
through Thursday. Thereafter the flow pattern is forecast to
de-amplify and become more progressive in nature during
Friday and into next weekend.

At the start of the period a cold front will be exiting to
the south of the forecast area. A brisk northwest to
northerly wind flow in the wake of the front will bring
another reinforcing shot of cool dry air into the region
with cool dry conditions expected during Wednesday and
Wednesday night as surface high pressure builds in from the
west and over the forecast area.

During Thursday and Thursday night the high will shift
southeast into the atlantic as another short wave trough
and attendant cold front approach from the northwest. The
gfs and canadian show this front moving south through the
forecast area on Friday, while the euro remains slower as it
develops a weak area of low pressure along the front over
the northeast gulf on Friday and depicts a frontal passage
during late Friday night or early Saturday morning.

Despite these differences model trends do show a little
better moisture recovery ahead of the front, so will use a
consensus of model output for now and depict pops in the 30
to 40 percent range during Friday and Friday night, with
some lingering showers (pops 20 percent) continuing across
central and southern zones through early Saturday morning
(to account for the slower euro solution) with the passage
of the front followed by another surge of cooler and drier
weather for Saturday afternoon and night as surface high
pressure builds in over the area in the wake of the front.

Zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure over the region
should maintain dry weather on Sunday along with slowly
moderating temperatures.

Below normal temperatures at the start of the period with
lows in the mid and upper 30s north, lower to mid 40s
central interior, and upper 40s south and along the coast,
with highs in the upper 50s north to lower to mid 60s
central and south on Wednesday will gradually moderate back
toward seasonal norms toward the end of the week, before
another brief cool down occurs during Saturday and Saturday
night in the wake of the front. Temperatures will then
modify again on Sunday with overnight lows rebounding into
the 50s with daytime highs on Sunday climbing into the lower
to mid 70s.

Vfr conditions will hold through the next 24 hours under light
northeast winds, turning to northwest in the afternoon.

High pressure building into the gulf will keep winds and
seas light today and into Tuesday. A dry cold front will
move south through the coastal waters Tuesday, with winds
briefly increasing to advisory levels before subsiding
Tuesday night. High pressure will then take hold again until
Friday, when another cold front moves through, causing
breezy winds and chances for showers.

Fire weather A much drier airmass remains in place
across the area today, with relative humidity percentages
forecast to drop into the low 30s and upper 20s for a few
hours this afternoon. However, light winds and low erc
values will not line up to create red flag conditions.

Moisture will briefly increase on Tuesday, before another
cold front moves in and supplies another shot of cooler and
drier air. Critical relative humidity values will be
possible again Wednesday afternoon, but light winds and low
erc values will once again prevent red flag conditions.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 64 51 72 46 0 0 10 0
fmy 67 48 75 49 0 0 10 0
gif 63 45 72 41 0 0 10 0
srq 65 50 73 50 0 0 10 0
bkv 63 43 72 39 0 0 10 0
spg 63 55 72 50 0 0 10 0

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... Freeze warning until 8 am est this morning for coastal
citrus-coastal hernando-coastal levy-inland citrus-
inland hernando-inland levy-inland pasco-sumter.

Gulf waters... None.

Short term aviation marine fire weather... 18 fleming
mid term long term decision support... 57 mcmichael

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PMAF1 9 mi46 min 46°F 65°F1024.8 hPa
MTBF1 11 mi46 min ESE 6 G 7 51°F 1025.6 hPa
CLBF1 17 mi82 min ENE 1 G 1.9 45°F 1024.9 hPa
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 18 mi46 min N 1.9 G 2.9 50°F 70°F1025.5 hPa
42098 20 mi46 min 69°F3 ft
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 24 mi46 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 48°F 66°F1025.7 hPa
MCYF1 29 mi46 min 71°F
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 30 mi46 min NNW 12 G 18 72°F
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 30 mi52 min NE 4.1 G 6
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 30 mi58 min N 2.9 G 4.1
VENF1 - Venice, FL 31 mi76 min ENE 6 G 7 46°F 69°F1025.5 hPa (-1.1)39°F
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 35 mi46 min E 5.1 G 6 52°F 62°F1025.7 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 46 mi82 min E 5.1 G 7 48°F 1026.5 hPa

Wind History for C-Cut, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sarasota / Bradenton, Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport, FL8 mi23 minN 010.00 miFair42°F39°F89%1025 hPa
Albert Whitted Airport, FL18 mi23 minN 410.00 miFair53°F46°F77%1024.9 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL24 mi20 minNE 610.00 miFair37°F35°F91%1025.7 hPa

Wind History from SRQ (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNE6NE4NE7NE8NE9NE9NE7NE9N8NW10N11N11N9N6CalmNE4CalmE4E3CalmE3E3E4Calm
1 day agoNW11
2 days agoS7S9S8S11S11S12S15S15

Tide / Current Tables for Bradenton, Manatee River, Florida
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Mon -- 01:11 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:07 AM EST     0.73 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:17 AM EST     1.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:41 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:54 PM EST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:13 PM EST     1.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge), Florida Current
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Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge)
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Mon -- 12:36 AM EST     -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 01:12 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:31 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:24 AM EST     0.70 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:36 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:36 PM EST     -0.61 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 01:42 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:08 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:40 PM EST     1.16 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:16 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.