Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Palmetto, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 6:58PM Thursday October 19, 2017 5:21 AM EDT (09:21 UTC) Moonrise 6:17AMMoonset 6:14PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ853 Coastal Waters From Englewood To Tarpon Springs Fl Out 20 Nm- 347 Am Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am edt this morning...
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Friday morning...
Today..Northeast winds around 20 knots...decreasing to 15 to 20 knots late this morning. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tonight..Northeast winds around 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots toward morning. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Friday..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday night..East winds around 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Saturday..East winds around 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Isolated showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..East winds around 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Sunday..Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 347 Am Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis..Strong high pressure to our north will maintain persistent northeast winds of 15-20 knots with higher gusts and seas of 3-6 feet off the coast. As a result, a small craft advisories remain in effect this morning with another advisory tonight. By the end of this weekend, winds should begin to relax some as high pressure slides off to our east and winds veer to a more southerly direction. A cold front will then approach the area early in the work week with the potential for widespread showers and storms, and high winds and seas by mid week behind the front.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palmetto, FL
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location: 27.51, -82.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 190728
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
328 am edt Thu oct 19 2017

Short term (today and Friday)
A generally benign weather pattern overspreads much of the
conus this morning as weak upper flow exists across the
southern two thirds of the nation, with fast quasi-zonal
flow over the northern tier states and the canadian border
region. Within this flow pattern, several weak disturbances
are apparent, including two weak shortwave troughs, one over
the bahamas, and another across southern california and
nevada. Between these two, weak upper ridging dominates the
gulf of mexico. At the surface, an expansive and fairly
strong surface high extends from the northern gulf coast to
the western atlantic ocean. This feature will dominate our
weather over the next couple of days.

For today, expect a general repeat of yesterday, though
slightly warmer and with less cloud cover. Northeasterly
winds will persist, becoming gusty in the afternoon.

Scattered to numerous showers will be likely along the
florida atlantic coast, but this activity is likely to
become more isolated further inland as the moist later off
the atlantic is quite shallow. Still, we will maintain a
chance of a few showers mainly over interior sections of the
peninsula.

Tomorrow looks to be very similar to today, though rain
chances will decrease ever so slightly as mid and upper dry
layer deepens, making it more difficult for those east
coast showers to penetrate the peninsula. However, a stray
shower or two will still be possible from late morning into
the afternoon.

As for temperatures, expect pleasant mornings with lows
ranging from the 60s north to the low mid 70s elsewhere.

Highs, however, will rise into the middle and upper 80s to
perhaps 90 in some areas. Welcome summer back everyone! All
kidding aside, highs will generally remain around 5 degrees
above normal for this time of year.

Long term (Friday night through Thursday)
The upper level trough has moved eastward over bermuda and
extends southwest to the bahamas. Upper level ridging
extends over florida northeast to the mid-atlantic region.

This pattern will hold in place until the beginning of next
week when the ridge slips east off the eastern seaboard. A
deepening trough approaches the region from the west by
Monday and will progress eastward through next week. This
trough will lend support to our next surface front that will
bring in some much cooler and drier air into next week.

On the surface, the main influence to the weather over
florida will be from strong high pressure to the north over
the mid-atlantic states. This will keep an east-northeast
wind flow over the region through the weekend with minimal
rain chances between 10-30 percent each day. Winds will
generally be below 15 knots, however some gusts near 20
knots will be possible over the coastal waters. The weather
pattern changes by the beginning of next week as an area of
low pressure and associated frontal boundary develops over
the northern gulf states and moves northeastward. This will
bring a shift in the winds to the south by the beginning of
next week and then to the north-northwest by middle of next
week. Rain chances will be higher on Tuesday as the front
passes, but will quickly clear up by the middle of next
week. This is expected to be the biggest cool down since
spring with daytime highs only reaching the low to mid 70's
by the middle of next week.

Aviation (06z tafs)
Vfr conditions expected to prevail through the period.

ScatteredVFR ceilings may develop 08z to 10z this morning,
perhaps briefly becoming broken for klal. Northeast winds to
continue, becoming gusty after 14z.

Marine
Hazardous boating conditions will persist this morning as a
noted easterly surge continues to generate winds of 20
knots or better over most of the coastal waters. Winds will
decrease from late morning through the afternoon, remaining
cautionary offshore, then another strong easterly wind surge
will bring advisory level winds of 20 to 25 knots again
tonight into early Friday. This cycle will likely repeat
itself daily through at least Saturday night. By Sunday,
winds will begins to gradually shift to the southeast as a
cold front approaches the region. This front will likely
result in increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
early next week. Additionally, breezy northwest winds may
occur behind the front and headlines may become necessary
for a time early next week as this occurs.

Fire weather
As high pressure remains to the north, east to northeast
winds will persist, allowing atlantic moisture to remain
over the area. A cold front will approach the region early
next week, with widespread showers and storms possible.

Drier air behind the front may result in lowered humidities
and gusty winds, but at this time, humidities look to remain
above critical levels, preventing any fire weather
concerns.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 87 72 88 72 10 0 10 10
fmy 88 72 88 73 20 0 20 10
gif 87 70 87 70 20 10 20 10
srq 88 72 88 72 10 0 10 10
bkv 87 67 88 67 20 0 10 10
spg 85 73 86 74 10 0 10 10

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for
coastal waters from englewood to tarpon springs fl
out 20 nm-coastal waters from tarpon springs to
suwannee river fl out 20 nm-tampa bay waters-waters
from bonita beach to englewood fl out 20 to 60 nm-
waters from englewood to tarpon springs fl out 20 to
60 nm-waters from tarpon springs to suwannee river fl
out 20 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 10 am edt
Friday for coastal waters from bonita beach to
englewood fl out 20 nm-coastal waters from englewood
to tarpon springs fl out 20 nm-coastal waters from
tarpon springs to suwannee river fl out 20 nm-waters
from bonita beach to englewood fl out 20 to 60 nm-
waters from englewood to tarpon springs fl out 20 to
60 nm-waters from tarpon springs to suwannee river fl
out 20 to 60 nm.

Short term aviation marine fire weather... 84 austin
mid term long term decision support... 74 wynn


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PMAF1 9 mi52 min 72°F 75°F1017 hPa
MTBF1 11 mi52 min NE 16 G 18 73°F 1018 hPa
CLBF1 17 mi88 min NE 2.9 G 7 72°F 1017.4 hPa
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 18 mi52 min NNE 8 G 12 72°F 80°F1018.2 hPa
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 24 mi52 min NNE 8 G 13 71°F 80°F1018.1 hPa
MCYF1 29 mi52 min 81°F
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 30 mi58 min NNE 8 G 12
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 30 mi64 min N 7 G 9.9
VENF1 - Venice, FL 31 mi82 min NNE 8.9 G 11 71°F 81°F1017.3 hPa (-1.4)69°F
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 35 mi52 min NE 7 G 9.9 71°F 79°F1018.4 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 46 mi88 min NE 8 G 11 71°F 1019.2 hPa

Wind History for C-Cut, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sarasota / Bradenton, Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport, FL8 mi29 minNNE 710.00 miFair70°F68°F93%1016.9 hPa
Albert Whitted Airport, FL18 mi29 minNE 1110.00 miFair71°F70°F96%1017.2 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL24 mi84 minNE 7 G 1210.00 miFair72°F68°F88%1018.2 hPa

Wind History from SRQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8
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1 day agoNE5NE11
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NE9NE9NE10NE11E13E9NE8NE10NE7NE9NE10NE8NE11
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2 days agoE6NE3E3E4E4E5E3SW5W9W12N7N6NW7N8N7N5N6N7NE5NE5E5E6E4E5

Tide / Current Tables for Bradenton, Manatee River, Florida
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Bradenton
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:33 AM EDT     2.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:40 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:39 PM EDT     2.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:30 PM EDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.22.22.11.81.410.60.40.40.611.41.8221.91.71.41.2111.21.62

Tide / Current Tables for Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge), Florida Current
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Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge)
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:38 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:54 AM EDT     -1.31 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:07 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:18 PM EDT     1.59 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 03:41 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:20 PM EDT     -0.91 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:58 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.10.4-0.2-0.8-1.2-1.3-1.1-0.7-0.10.61.31.61.51.10.4-0.2-0.7-0.9-0.9-0.500.61.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.