Monday, December10, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holmes Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:37PM Monday December 10, 2018 8:23 AM EST (13:23 UTC) Moonrise 9:51AMMoonset 8:40PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ853 Coastal Waters From Englewood To Tarpon Springs Fl Out 20 Nm- 346 Am Est Mon Dec 10 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 am est this morning...
Today..North winds around 20 knots then becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the late morning. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots then becoming north 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Tuesday night..North winds around 15 knots then becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday night..East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to around 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..South winds around 20 knots then becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 346 Am Est Mon Dec 10 2018
Synopsis..Gusty northwesterly winds will create hazardous boating conditions for small craft operators today. High pressure will move into the northwest gulf on Tuesday, then into the southeastern states by Wednesday. A strong cold front will approach the waters on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holmes Beach, FL
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location: 27.51, -82.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 101145 cca
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
640 am est Mon dec 10 2018

Aviation
Widespread stratus deck producing MVFR ceilings across many
terminals with southern TAF sites receiving occasional
sprinkles through mid morning.VFR conditions return by 16z
with NW winds increasing this afternoon to around 10-15
knots with higher gusts possible.

Prev discussion issued 253 am est Mon dec 10 2018
short term (today - Tuesday)...

extensive cloud deck extends from the western gulf eastward
across florida and northeast up the eastern seaboard and
into the atlantic. These clouds will be with us through much
of the day, and some areas may see some sprinkles light
showers from time to time. The storm system that moved
across the northern gulf coast is now moving eastward out to
sea off the carolina coast. A deep upper-level trough will
remain over the gulf through tonight, then begin to shift
into the atlantic later Tuesday. The combination of cyclonic
flow aloft and cold air advection over the relatively warm
gulf waters will keep plenty of clouds in place through
tonight, especially along the coast. Some clearing should
take place tonight over the interior.

Most areas should see plenty of sunshine on Tuesday as the
upper trough departs and surface high pressure builds in
from the west.

Much colder air will be filtering in today, and
temperatures aren't going to climb very much. Look for highs
to only reach the middle 50s far north, but warm into the
middle to upper 60s over central and southern areas.

Cold air will continue to pour in Monday night with upper
30s expected for the nature coast by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere it should bottom out in the mid 40s, except lower
50s near the coast.

It will remain cool on Tuesday despite the increase in
sunshine. High swill generally stay between 60 and 65
degrees.

Long term (Tuesday night - Sunday)...

the surface high will move slowly eastward into the
southeastern states Tuesday night providing good conditions
for radiational cooling with light winds and clear skies.

The nature coast could flirt with freezing temperatures, and
patchy frost is likely. Central and southern areas will
fall into the upper 30s to mid 40s.

The high center will move into the atlantic Wednesday and
Thursday resulting in a gradual warming trend. Moisture will
return from south to north on Thursday with some showers
possible. The next significant system to affect our weather
will be taking shape over the northwest gulf coast on
Thursday, bringing more showers and thunderstorms to the
region Friday and Friday night. Models differ on timing, but
agree that this could be a potent system similar to what we
saw this past weekend. Cooler air will move in behind the
system for the weekend.

Aviation...

some light rain drizzle will impact terminals for a few
hours with MVFR ceilings and visibilities. Expect showers to
come to an end with ceilings lifting above 3000 feet by 15z.

Marine...

gusty west to northwest winds will create hazardous
conditions for small craft on the gulf waters today. Winds
will gradually subside this afternoon, but will likely
remain elevated to some extent through Tuesday. High
pressure will provide light winds on Wednesday, then winds
will begin to increase from the southeast on Thursday ahead
of the next system. Hazardous winds and seas are likely to
return to our waters by Friday and may continue into at
least part of the weekend.

Fire weather...

cooler and drier air is moving into the region today and
will be with us through Wednesday. Relative humidities are
expected to remain above critical levels.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 64 47 61 43 10 10 0 0
fmy 69 51 66 45 0 0 0 0
gif 64 42 62 41 0 0 0 0
srq 64 49 62 43 0 10 0 0
bkv 60 39 60 35 0 0 0 0
spg 62 50 60 48 0 10 0 0

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through this evening for coastal
charlotte-coastal hillsborough-coastal lee-coastal
manatee-coastal sarasota-pinellas.

Gulf waters... Small craft advisory until 8 am est this morning for
coastal waters from bonita beach to englewood fl out
20 nm-coastal waters from englewood to tarpon springs
fl out 20 nm-waters from bonita beach to englewood fl
out 20 to 60 nm-waters from englewood to tarpon
springs fl out 20 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
coastal waters from tarpon springs to suwannee river
fl out 20 nm-waters from tarpon springs to suwannee
river fl out 20 to 60 nm.

Aviation... 42 norman
previous discussion... Jillson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PMAF1 12 mi35 min 60°F 64°F1017.6 hPa
MTBF1 12 mi35 min N 13 G 15 60°F 1017.8 hPa53°F
42098 13 mi53 min 67°F6 ft
CLBF1 16 mi89 min NNW 5.1 G 8 61°F 1016.5 hPa
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 18 mi41 min NNW 5.1 G 8 59°F 66°F1017.8 hPa
GCTF1 21 mi35 min 59°F 53°F
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 25 mi35 min NNW 13 G 15 59°F 66°F1017.9 hPa
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 26 mi53 min N 16 G 19 64°F 71°F1017.6 hPa
MCYF1 32 mi35 min 69°F
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 33 mi41 min NW 18 G 22 59°F 65°F1017.9 hPa
VENF1 - Venice, FL 33 mi23 min N 8 G 9.9 62°F 68°F1017.7 hPa (+2.2)58°F
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 45 mi89 min N 19 G 22 59°F 1017.9 hPa

Wind History for C-Cut, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sarasota / Bradenton, Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport, FL11 mi30 minN 810.00 miOvercast61°F55°F81%1017.1 hPa
Albert Whitted Airport, FL18 mi30 minN 510.00 miOvercast59°F53°F81%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from SRQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS17
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SW7W10NW7W8NW11NW14NW13W12NW12NW15NW12NW11NW15NW8N10N8N8
1 day agoE7E11SE11SE14SE10SE8SW9SW6S6S5E4CalmE6SE8SE8SE9SE8SE10SE9SE11S15S13S22
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2 days agoE9E9E8E8E9SE12SE6SE5W7NW4N5N3E5E7E9E9E9E8E8E8E8E7E5E6

Tide / Current Tables for Anna Maria Key, Bradenton Beach, Tampa Bay, Florida
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Anna Maria Key
Click for Map
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:25 AM EST     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:44 PM EST     1.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:07 PM EST     1.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:40 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:53 PM EST     2.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.11.71.20.70.2-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.10.20.611.21.31.41.31.31.21.31.41.722.2

Tide / Current Tables for Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel), Florida Current
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Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel)
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:35 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:28 AM EST     -2.00 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:40 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:09 PM EST     1.47 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:37 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:44 PM EST     -0.14 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:40 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:53 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.90.4-0.3-1-1.6-2-2-1.6-1.1-0.50.20.81.31.51.410.60.2-0.1-0.100.30.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.