Wednesday, November22, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Ellenton, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 5:37PM Wednesday November 22, 2017 6:06 AM EST (11:06 UTC) Moonrise 10:13AMMoonset 9:07PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 409 Am Est Wed Nov 22 2017
Today..Northeast winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..East winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..East winds around 10 knots then becoming south in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the morning. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southeast winds around 5 knots then becoming east around 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds around 10 knots then becoming west late in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely in the morning. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..North winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..North winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 409 Am Est Wed Nov 22 2017
Synopsis..An area of low pressure is developing over the central gulf of mexico and will move east northeast across the northern florida peninsula Thursday and Thursday night and into the atlantic ocean on Friday. Wind speeds are expected to increase to cautionary levels over the northern gulf tonight and Thursday as this low pressure moves into the region. Sufficient moisture combined with this storm system will continue to support scattered to numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms over the waters through Friday night. Pleasant dry weather will return to the waters on Saturday as high pressure builds in over the region.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellenton, FL
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location: 27.53, -82.48     debug

Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 220807
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
307 am est Wed nov 22 2017

Short term (today through Thursday)
A deep layer of low level moisture has helped fuel some
patches of fog across the area early this morning. As the
temperature continues to fall, this fog will continue to
expand in coverage and thickness, and a dense fog advisory
may be needed before the fog clears out after sunrise.

Regional satellite is showing a developing storm system
in the west central gulf of mexico associated with an
amplified shortwave trough that is digging into the region.

This system is moving considerably slower than it was
forecast to earlier in the week, and is now expected to
remain in the gulf today and will only move east into the
florida peninsula late tonight and into Thursday. As a
result, rain chances will be rather limited today across the
forecast area while the most favorable moisture holds well
to the west. That said, an occasional shower or thunderstorm
cannot be completely ruled out this afternoon.

The trough and deeper moisture will shift east into the
florida peninsula tonight and Friday with building rain
chances. Mid level temperatures of -10c to -12c will also
allow for enough instability for a few thunderstorms to be
mixed in with the showers as well. With the deep moisture
producing numerous clouds in addition to the rain chances,
temperatures should also be a bit lower Thursday, only
topping out in the upper 60s over the nature coast where
rain chances will be highest.

Mid-long term (Thursday night through Tuesday)
A strong shortwave trough and upper energy to start the
forecast period in the E gulf and slowly move over the
state. Complex surface gulf storm system to slide over the
area then into the W atlantic through Fri with unsettled
weather continuing. Fairly deep moisture, enhanced surface
forcing and mid upper dynamics to produce a few rounds of
light to moderate numerous showers and embedded
thunderstorms through Friday.

Eastern u.S. Longwave trough to come in phase as second
shortwave wraps over the region Sat then entire trough
moves into the W atlantic Sun with drying nw-n flow aloft.

Surface high pressure to build into the region Saturday with
drying trend from N to s, then reinforcing cool dry
canadian airmass Sunday-Monday. Cool late nov temps expected
to remain slightly below seasonal averages Sunday into
Tuesday morning.

Patches of fog, some locally dense have already developed
over parts of the area and are expected to increase in
coverage and density through sunrise. Periods of ifr or lifr
visibility and ceilings will be possible through just after
sunrise. The one limiting factor will be a large area of
cirrus moving east into the area, which could bring some
relief from the fog. MVFR ceilings may linger through the
morning, then scattered showers will be possible again after
17z, mainly around the tampa bay and areas to the north.

An area of low pressure will develop in the central gulf of
mexico today and lift northeast into northern florida
tonight and Thursday. This will bring an increase in wind
speeds over the gulf waters, mainly from tampa bay north
tonight and Friday, with periods of cautionary or low end
advisory level winds possible. Conditions will improve
Friday afternoon and evening as high pressure builds back in
over the gulf.

Fire weather
Humidity will remain well above critical threshold through
the rest of the week. Patchy fog will be possible again
tonight Thursday morning.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 78 66 74 66 20 20 80 70
fmy 82 66 79 67 20 20 60 50
gif 79 64 76 64 20 10 80 60
srq 78 66 76 65 20 20 70 60
bkv 78 62 73 61 20 30 80 70
spg 77 65 75 65 20 20 80 70

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Short term aviation marine fire weather... 18 fleming
mid term long term decision support... 25 davis

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PMAF1 9 mi49 min 62°F 70°F1012.8 hPa
MTBF1 11 mi49 min E 6 G 7 65°F 1013.4 hPa
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 18 mi55 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 65°F 70°F1013.6 hPa
CLBF1 18 mi73 min E 2.9 G 6 67°F 1012.7 hPa
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 23 mi49 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 64°F 70°F1013.5 hPa
42098 24 mi37 min 71°F1 ft
MCYF1 27 mi49 min 72°F
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 28 mi61 min N 2.9 G 5.1
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 28 mi55 min NE 4.1 G 6
VENF1 - Venice, FL 32 mi67 min E 7 G 8 64°F 71°F1013.1 hPa (-0.4)64°F
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 34 mi97 min ESE 7.8 G 9.7 74°F
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 36 mi55 min ENE 7 G 8.9 65°F 69°F1013.5 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 46 mi73 min E 8 G 9.9 65°F 1013.8 hPa

Wind History for C-Cut, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sarasota / Bradenton, Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport, FL10 mi74 minE 31.25 miFog/Mist62°F62°F100%1012.8 hPa
Albert Whitted Airport, FL18 mi74 minE 40.25 miFog66°F64°F96%1012.9 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL23 mi71 minE 60.75 miFog/Mist65°F64°F100%1013.8 hPa

Wind History from SRQ (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE6E7SE9
1 day agoNE10NE9NE9NE11E13E11
2 days agoSE4SW5SW6SW8SW10SW10W9W8NW11NW9NW11N12NW8N7N8N8N11

Tide / Current Tables for Redfish Point, Manatee River, Florida
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Redfish Point
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Wed -- 01:56 AM EST     2.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:13 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:41 AM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:12 PM EST     1.35 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:07 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:14 PM EST     1.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge), Florida Current
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Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge)
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Wed -- 12:28 AM EST     1.08 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:12 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:44 AM EST     -1.48 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:14 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:53 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:30 PM EST     1.26 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:51 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:11 PM EST     -0.18 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:08 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:32 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.