Friday, May26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ellenton, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 8:19PM Friday May 26, 2017 1:29 AM EDT (05:29 UTC) Moonrise 6:31AMMoonset 8:24PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 831 Pm Edt Thu May 25 2017
Tonight..Northwest winds around 10 knots then becoming west around 5 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday..North winds around 5 knots then becoming west around 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots then becoming north around 5 knots after midnight, then becoming northeast toward morning. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..East winds around 5 knots early in the morning then becoming variable less than 5 knots, then becoming west around 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots then becoming west around 5 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..West winds around 5 knots increasing to around 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday night..West winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday..West winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Monday night..West winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Tuesday..West winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 831 Pm Edt Thu May 25 2017
Synopsis..High pressure over the gulf of mexico builds in across florida for the holiday weekend and meanders there into mid-week. This will provide light winds with afternoon sea breezes.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellenton, FL
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location: 27.53, -82.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 252329
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
729 pm edt Thu may 25 2017

Update
Water vapor imagery showing dry air aloft over the region as
weak surface high pressure area settles into the E gulf
filtering in much drier dewpoint airmass over the fl
peninsula. Early look at tbw sounding showing very dry air
above 5kt ft inversion with westerly flow through the column.

Expect slightly cooler than seasonal average overnight temps
with clear skies and light winds for pleasant conditions.

Latest grids and forecast on track.

Aviation
Vrf conditions all TAF sites all night and Friday with light
winds while residual sct_bkn clouds over SW fl to thin and
move seward this evening.

Prev discussion issued 214 pm edt Thu may 25 2017
short term (rest of today - Friday)...

an upper level ridge reaches from mexico to hudson bay while a low
aloft oh troughs southeastward... Across the mid-atlantic coast then
arcs back to northern fl. Surface high pressure centered over the
northern half of the gulf of mexico ridges north through the
mississippi valley and a front across the south half of the gulf
extends across south-central fl to the bahamas.

With time - the upper ridge slides out over the western gulf and
stretches to ontario while the upper low tracks to the canadian
maritimes and takes the trough with it... Although a weak short wave
trough hangs back across northern fl. The gulf high pressure tracks
to fl with the front moving into far south fl tonight then south of
there fri.

For this afternoon - a few showers remain in the far south but will
clear before evening. Considerable cloudiness continues but
will give way to clear mostly skies after sunset. The
robust and gusty winds of this morning continue to diminish.

The weak short wave trough has very little impact as the deep layer
ridging sliding toward the area from the gulf dominates. A stable
warm and dry air mass prevails. Model pwat values run around 0.5
inches for the northern 2 3s of the area and around 1 inch in the
south. Light flow gives way to onshore flow in an afternoon sea
breeze. Temperatures overnight will be below normal but warm back to
near normal by the afternoon.

Long term (Friday night - Thursday)...

mid level ridging will build in over the gulf on Saturday and then
shift east over the state on Sunday as an attendant surface high
across the central peninsula on Saturday sinks south to the southern
peninsula on Sunday. A dry subsident air mass under the deep layered
ridging will support ample sunshine across the entire forecast area
through the long holiday weekend with temperatures warming into the
lower to mid 90s over interior locations each afternoon, with upper
80s to around 90 along the coast due to the sea breeze, with lows
generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

During late Monday through Thursday the upper level ridge will shift
east into the atlantic and will become aligned southwest to
northeast from the south florida peninsula into the western
atlantic, as the surface high sets up from the western atlantic west
across the south-central peninsula. A southeast wind flow albeit
light around the surface high will allow for a slow increase in
moisture across the region through the period which will lead to
increasing chances (pops 20 to 30 percent on Tuesday, then 30-50
percent Wednesday and Thursday) for diurnal sea breeze driven
showers and thunderstorms each day during the afternoon and early
evening hours with the highest rain chances expected over inland
sections each afternoon as the east and west coast sea breeze
boundaries move inland.

Temperatures will range from the upper 80s to around 90 along the
coast, and lower 90s inland each day, with overnight lows mainly in
the lower 70s.

Marine... Robust winds continue to diminish although small
craft should exercise caution for the rest of the afternoon.

High pressure in the gulf moves over fl then meanders there
into the middle of next week with light winds dominated by
afternoon sea breezes.

Fire weather...

high pressure builds in with a dry air mass... Mainly Fri and sat.

The minimum rh drops below 35 percent Fri and Sat afternoons but
with only limited durations and with low erc values red
flag criteria is not expected to be reached. Moisture begins
to return Sun with no low rh concerns anticipated for the
next few days.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 69 87 70 88 0 0 0 0
fmy 70 91 72 93 0 0 0 0
gif 65 91 67 94 0 0 0 0
srq 69 83 69 88 0 0 0 0
bkv 58 87 59 90 0 0 0 0
spg 71 85 73 87 0 0 0 0

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Update aviation marine... 25 davis
upper air... 27 shiveley
decision support... 69 close


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PMAF1 9 mi42 min 75°F 80°F1014.7 hPa
MTBF1 11 mi42 min WNW 8 G 8.9 75°F 1015.7 hPa61°F
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 18 mi48 min W 1 G 1.9 73°F 81°F1015.2 hPa
CLBF1 18 mi96 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 73°F 1014.7 hPa
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 23 mi42 min W 5.1 G 8 74°F 81°F1015.6 hPa
MCYF1 27 mi42 min 86°F
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 28 mi48 min Calm G 1.9
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 28 mi42 min WSW 1.9 G 1.9
VENF1 - Venice, FL 32 mi30 min NE 4.1 G 4.1 73°F 82°F1015.1 hPa (+1.1)64°F
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 34 mi120 min NW 3.9 G 7.8 81°F
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 36 mi42 min SW 4.1 G 6 75°F 81°F1015.5 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 46 mi96 min NW 7 G 8.9 75°F 1015.7 hPa

Wind History for C-Cut, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sarasota / Bradenton, Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport, FL10 mi37 minN 010.00 miFair67°F62°F84%1014.9 hPa
St. Petersburg Whitted Airport, FL18 mi37 minN 010.00 miFair74°F61°F64%1014.8 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL23 mi32 minNNW 410.00 miFair67°F60°F81%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from SRQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW18
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W17W12W12W12NW12NW13NW13NW11NW12W12W10W11W12NW8W7NW8NW4NW3CalmCalmN3Calm
1 day agoSW16
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2 days agoS7SW5SE5S5SE7SE6S11
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SW15SW14S13SW15
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Tide / Current Tables for Redfish Point, Manatee River, Florida
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Redfish Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:45 AM EDT     1.43 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:17 AM EDT     1.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:48 PM EDT     2.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:24 PM EDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.81.21.41.41.41.31.21.21.21.41.82.22.52.62.42.11.71.10.50-0.3-0.5-0.5

Tide / Current Tables for Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge), Florida Current
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Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge)
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:15 AM EDT     1.80 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:21 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:47 AM EDT     -0.27 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:13 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:02 PM EDT     1.55 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:53 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:48 PM EDT     -2.15 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:54 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.81.71.30.70.1-0.2-0.3-0.10.30.91.31.51.30.8-0.1-1-1.7-2.1-2.1-1.9-1.5-0.80.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.