Wednesday, January17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tierra Verde, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 6:01PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 4:09 AM EST (09:09 UTC) Moonrise 7:41AMMoonset 6:41PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ853 Coastal Waters From Englewood To Tarpon Springs Fl Out 20 Nm- 647 Pm Est Tue Jan 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night...
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots then becoming northeast around 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..North winds around 10 knots becoming northwest and increasing to 20 to 25 knots. Seas building to 4 to 6 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy to rough.
Wednesday night..North winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to around 20 knots toward morning. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy to rough.
Thursday..Northeast winds around 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop to choppy.
Thursday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday..North winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday night..East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday night..East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 647 Pm Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis.. Strong winds and rough seas will expand across the eastern gulf of mexico during the day Wednesday in the wake of a cold front. These hazardous boating conditions for small craft operators will continue through much of Wednesday night before subsiding late Wednesday night into the daylight hours Thursday. Following the advisory event...high pressure centered to the north of the region brings lighter easterly winds and calmer seas for the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tierra Verde, FL
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location: 27.61, -82.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 170858
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
358 am est Wed jan 17 2018

Widespread freezing temperatures and dangerous wind
chills tonight into early Thursday...

Short term (today and Thursday)
A strong positive tilt upper trough continues to dive
southeastward across the mississippi valley region. This in
conjunction with an arctic cold front is making for a wintry
mess along the northern gulf coast this morning. This front
will continue to slip southeastward, eventually pushing
through the florida peninsula by this evening, bringing
another shot of very cold air into the region for the end of
the week.

For today, as the cold front works into the florida
panhandle and northern peninsular areas by late
morning early afternoon, expect a rather substantial
temperature gradient north to south. Highs along the nature
coast will be in the upper 40s and lower 50s, while areas
along the i-4 corridor and points south should rise into
the 60s to near 70 degrees before frontal passage. This
frontal passage will be a dry one as northerly flow has
persisted over the last several days. A sharp increase in
winds will occur in the wake of the front, with a sort of
slap you in the face feel. This will especially hold true
for coastal areas, where 25 to 30 mph wind gusts will be
common this afternoon into tonight.

For tonight, substantial cold air advection will continue
with widespread freezing temperatures appearing likely over
a good part of the peninsula. Freeze watches of the hard and
soft variety remain in effect for the overnight hours, and
will likely be upgraded to warnings later this afternoon as
confidence in areal extent and duration increase. Elevated
winds in concert with falling temperatures should lead to
some fairly impressive wind chills with teens expected north
of i-4, and low to mid 20s elsewhere. Wind chill advisories
have been issued for this potential. Marine conditions will
also become quite dangerous this evening and overnight with
building waves and strong north winds.

For Thursday, as high pressure gradually slips closer to
the region, winds should slowly decrease. However, as the
airmass in place will remain quite cold, highs are only
expected to top out in the 40s and 50s most areas.

Temperatures will fall quite rapidly again after sunset with
another night of freezing temperatures possible, especially
north of i-4.

Mid long term (Thursday night through Tuesday)
The mid term period will begin with another cold start to
the day on Friday with temps expected in the 20s and 30s by
daybreak. A warming trend will begin on Friday however as a
surface high will gradually shift into the atlantic allowing
the airmass to begin to moderate. Afternoon highs Friday
will top out in the upper 50s to upper 60s which is still
well below normal but is some 7-10 degrees higher than what
our highs will be on Thursday. The more noticeable warmup
really gets going during the weekend as easterly flow will
continue to moderate temps across the area, with readings
expected to return to the 70s for the southern half of the
forecast area Saturday and by Sunday everyone will be back
in 70s for highs with noticeably higher dewpoints as well.

The next frontal system looks to approach the area late
Monday and out ahead of it winds will become more southerly
allowing temps to push 80 in spots. Increased moisture will
allow for some isolated showers as well out ahead of this
system. Front looks to push through on Tuesday, although it
will lose much of its upper level support as it does so, so
the boundary looks to be decaying as it moves through thus
limiting any potential rain chances. For now, have pops
capped at 30 percent for this fropa. Not a lot of cold air
behind this system either so no major cooldown is expected-
just a few degrees perhaps.

Aviation (06z tafs)
PrimarilyVFR conditions expected with light and variable
winds. Patchy ground fog will develop by 08z to 09z,
continuing through around 13z before diminishing. Fog may
result in visibility restrictions at more fog prone
terminals. A strong cold front will bring gusty northwest
winds by 18z to 21z which will decrease slightly after 00z.

Marine
Light winds will remain over the waters through the
remainder of the morning. Marine conditions will rapidly
deteriorate however this afternoon through tonight. A strong
cold front will bring solid advisory level winds and seas
beginning this afternoon and continuing into the day
Thursday. Gale force wind gusts will also be possible over
the offshore waters with seas building up to 8 feet. High
pressure will slowly move toward the region late tomorrow
into the weekend, with improving winds and seas. Modest
easterly wind surges may yield cautionary winds at times. A
cold front will approach the waters early next week, this
may allow for patchy sea fog development as moisture rides
up over the cooler gulf waters. Winds may also increase in
response to the frontal passage mid week.

Fire weather
A strong cold front will bring breezy north winds and very
dry air into the region, along with much colder
temperatures. While humidities will fall well below critical
levels Thursday, ercs and winds will generally remain low.

Moisture will return rather quickly from Friday into the
weekend as easterly flow allows atlantic moisture to return.

This will allow humidities to remain well above critical
levels from the weekend into next week.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 59 31 53 38 0 0 0 0
fmy 69 35 58 41 0 0 0 0
gif 65 31 54 36 0 0 0 0
srq 62 33 54 39 0 0 0 0
bkv 57 27 52 30 0 0 0 0
spg 60 33 52 40 0 0 0 0

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... Wind chill advisory from 11 pm this evening to 10 am est
Thursday for coastal charlotte-coastal hillsborough-
coastal lee-coastal manatee-coastal sarasota-desoto-
hardee-highlands-inland charlotte-inland hillsborough-
inland lee-inland manatee-inland sarasota-pinellas-
polk.

Freeze watch from this evening through Thursday morning
for coastal hernando-coastal hillsborough-coastal
pasco-desoto-hardee-highlands-inland charlotte-inland
hillsborough-inland manatee-inland sarasota-polk.

Hard freeze watch from this evening through Thursday
morning for coastal citrus-coastal levy-inland citrus-
inland hernando-inland levy-inland pasco-sumter.

Wind chill advisory from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est
Thursday for coastal citrus-coastal hernando-coastal
levy-coastal pasco-inland citrus-inland hernando-
inland levy-inland pasco-sumter.

Gulf waters... Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 6 am est
Thursday for coastal waters from tarpon springs to
suwannee river fl out 20 nm-waters from tarpon
springs to suwannee river fl out 20 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 1 pm est
Thursday for waters from englewood to tarpon springs
fl out 20 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 1 pm est
Thursday for waters from bonita beach to englewood fl
out 20 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 am est
Thursday for coastal waters from englewood to tarpon
springs fl out 20 nm.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 10 am est
Thursday for coastal waters from bonita beach to
englewood fl out 20 nm.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 6 am est
Thursday for charlotte harbor and pine island sound-
tampa bay waters.

Short term aviation marine fire weather... 84 austin
mid term long term decision support... 11 mckaughan


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTBF1 8 mi51 min NE 6 G 6 56°F 1023.9 hPa
PMAF1 9 mi51 min 54°F 58°F1023.1 hPa
CLBF1 9 mi75 min N 1.9 G 1.9 55°F 1023.2 hPa
42098 11 mi39 min 59°F1 ft
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 12 mi57 min N 2.9 G 4.1 55°F 58°F1023.9 hPa
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 19 mi51 min N 5.1 G 7 56°F 58°F1024 hPa
MCYF1 26 mi51 min 59°F
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 26 mi51 min N 6 G 8 53°F 56°F1024.4 hPa
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 27 mi63 min N 2.9 G 4.1
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 27 mi69 min N 2.9 G 5.1
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 32 mi99 min E 9.7 G 9.7 63°F
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 38 mi75 min NNE 6 G 7 54°F 1025.2 hPa
VENF1 - Venice, FL 40 mi69 min ENE 5.1 G 6 54°F 60°F1023.4 hPa (-1.9)51°F

Wind History for C-Cut, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albert Whitted Airport, FL12 mi76 minNNE 310.00 miFair55°F52°F90%1023.4 hPa
Sarasota / Bradenton, Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport, FL17 mi76 minE 410.00 miFair49°F48°F97%1022.9 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL20 mi73 minN 510.00 miFair48°F46°F94%1024.3 hPa
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL21 mi76 minN 510.00 miFair54°F52°F93%1024.2 hPa

Wind History from SPG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9NE10E11NE11NE11NE10E6E7NE3NE6NE5CalmSE3NE5N7N6NE6N5N5E6CalmCalmCalmNE3
1 day agoN12NE14NE14NE13NE10NE13N10NE12NE12NE11NE8NE8NE8NE9NE7NE12E15E16E15E15E14NE12NE11NE13
2 days agoN9N12N16
G21
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G19
NE13N9N9NE12N10NE10NE9N11N8N10N9N7N8NE13NE11N8N10NE11N11

Tide / Current Tables for Mullet Key Channel (Skyway), Florida
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Mullet Key Channel (Skyway)
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Wed -- 06:43 AM EST     -0.57 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:42 PM EST     1.04 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:22 PM EST     0.80 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:59 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:41 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:28 PM EST     1.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.81.51.10.60.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.4-0.10.30.60.91110.90.80.811.21.51.71.9

Tide / Current Tables for Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel), Florida Current
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Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel)
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Wed -- 01:17 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:07 AM EST     -2.03 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:18 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:30 PM EST     1.61 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:39 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:59 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:08 PM EST     -0.25 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:41 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:39 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:17 PM EST     1.22 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.2-0.6-1.3-1.8-2-1.9-1.6-1-0.20.51.21.61.61.20.80.3-0.1-0.3-0.20.10.511.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.