Friday, July28, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Tierra Verde, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 8:22PM Friday July 28, 2017 9:06 AM EDT (13:06 UTC) Moonrise 11:03AMMoonset 11:13PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ853 Coastal Waters From Englewood To Tarpon Springs Fl Out 20 Nm- 340 Am Edt Fri Jul 28 2017
Today..South winds around 5 knots then becoming west around 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms in the morning.
Tonight..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Sunday..West winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered Thunderstorms in the morning, then numerous Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..West winds around 15 knots then becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Numerous Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Numerous Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southwest winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Numerous Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Numerous Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 340 Am Edt Fri Jul 28 2017
Synopsis..Surface high pressure will remain across south florida today. The high will move south to the florida straits during the weekend as a cold front sinks south toward north florida. As the front sinks south an uptick in westerly winds will occur across the central and northern gulf waters as the pressure gradient tightens some. During early next week the front will wash out across the north central gulf waters as surface high pressure begins to rebuild in over the southern peninsula. Increasing deep layered moisture and the presence of the frontal boundary will support increasing chances for showers and Thunderstorms over the waters late in the weekend and continuing into early next week. Wind and seas will be higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms, otherwise no headlines are anticipated.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tierra Verde, FL
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location: 27.61, -82.72     debug

Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 280721
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
321 am edt Fri jul 28 2017

Prolonged period of unsettled weather next week...

Increasing rain chances with locally heavy rainfall
possible late in the weekend and into next week...

Short term (today - Saturday)
Mid level and surface troughing offshore the northeast
florida coast and extending west southwest across the
northern florida peninsula and along the northern gulf coast
will keep the subtropical ridge suppressed across south
florida today with the ridge then sinking south of the state
later tonight into Saturday as an upper level trough
amplifies over the eastern u.S. And an attendant cold front
drops south across the southeastern states toward the
florida georgia border.

As for today and Saturday dry mid level air combined with a
slightly stronger southwest to westerly flow keeping the
east coast sea breeze from making much progress to the west
today, and likely negating it altogether on Saturday, should
limit overall boundary interactions which in turn should
support below normal convective coverage (pops 20 to 30
percent range mainly inland) of showers and storms across
the forecast area during the afternoon and evening hours
both days. Despite the expected lower coverage of storms any
storm that does develop will still be capable of producing
locally heavy rain along with strong gusty downburst winds,
and frequent lightning strikes. With lower rain chances
temperatures will climb into the lower 90s along the coast,
and mid to upper 90s inland today and mid 90s on Saturday.

These temperatures combined with high humidity values will
support heat indices in the 100 to 105 degrees range each
afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will remain above normal
as well with lows ranging from the mid 70s inland areas, to
the upper 70s to around 80 along the coast.

Long term (Saturday - Thursday)
A long wave trough resides over or just off the eastern
seaboard... From eastern canada to the eastern gulf of
mexico... Through late next week. An embedded short wave
trough low initially aloft the mid- atlantic states slides
offshore early Tue then dampens out as it lifts toward the
canadian maritimes. The short wave trough low drags a
frontal boundary across the deep south to the gulf coast and
north fl late sun. The frontal boundary meanders across the
northern gulf waters and north-central or central fl for
much of the work week... With a couple of weak waves tracking
along it. Elsewhere a sub-tropical ridge will be just south
of fl... From the atlantic across the bahamas to cuba.

A very moist southwest to west 1000-700mb flow prevails for
most of the period. A swath of slightly drier air scoots
through Sat night and early Sun but otherwise pwat values
run 2 inches and above. The highest amounts will pool along
and ahead of the frontal boundary. The abundant
moisture... Upper trough... And frontal boundary with the
waves on it will result in showers and thunderstorms and
considerable cloudiness. The pops will run from 20 to 80
percent. Some the showers storms could produce locally heavy
rainfall and depending upon where and when this rain falls
there could be flooding issues. Later forecasts will be able
to fine tune the location and timing of any possible
flooding. The onshore flow and clouds will help keep the low
temperatures on the warm side of normal. The high
temperatures will stay just below normal due to the rainfall
and clouds.

Shra tsra may bring brief MVFR conditions to the terminals
after 19z with best chances at klal, kpgd, kfmy, and krsw
where vcts has been depicted, otherwiseVFR is expected
during the next 24 hours. Light and variable winds early
this morning will become southwest to west at 8 to 10 knots
after 16z with higher gusts in the vicinity of tsra. Light
and variable winds will return to all sites after 01z

Surface high pressure will persist from the atlantic west
across the southern florida peninsula and into the eastern
gulf today with southwest to west winds around 10 knots and
seas of 2 feet or less. The high will sink south across the
florida straits during the weekend and into early next week
as an amplifying upper level trough pushes a cold front
south toward north florida. A slight uptick in westerly
winds can be expected across the central and northern waters
during the weekend as the gradient tightens some as the
front approaches, but no headlines are expected. During
early next week the front will wash out across the north-
central waters as high pressure rebuilds in across the
southern peninsula with lighter winds and lower seas
expected. As the front approaches areal coverage of showers
and storms will increase across the gulf waters during the
weekend and into early next week with higher winds and seas
expected in the vicinity of the storms.

Fire weather
Humidity values will remain well above critical levels
through the weekend and into next week with no fire
weather issues expected.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 92 81 90 80 10 10 20 40
fmy 93 77 93 78 20 10 20 30
gif 95 77 93 77 20 10 20 20
srq 91 81 90 80 10 10 20 40
bkv 93 76 92 77 10 10 20 40
spg 91 81 90 79 10 10 20 40

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Short term aviation marine fire weather... 57 mcmichael
long term decision support... 09 rude

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTBF1 8 mi49 min S 6 G 7 85°F 1015.2 hPa
CLBF1 9 mi73 min Calm G 1 83°F 1014.2 hPa
PMAF1 9 mi49 min 82°F 87°F1014.4 hPa
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 12 mi49 min WSW 1.9 G 2.9 88°F1015.1 hPa
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 19 mi49 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 86°F 88°F1015.1 hPa
MCYF1 26 mi49 min 91°F
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 26 mi49 min SSW 5.1 G 8 86°F 89°F1015 hPa
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 27 mi55 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 27 mi61 min E 5.1 G 6
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 32 mi97 min W 1.9 G 3.9 87°F
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 38 mi133 min WSW 5.1 G 7 85°F 1015 hPa
VENF1 - Venice, FL 40 mi67 min NE 2.9 G 2.9 82°F 89°F1015 hPa (+1.1)76°F

Wind History for C-Cut, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albert Whitted Airport, FL12 mi74 minN 010.00 miFair86°F73°F65%1014.3 hPa
Sarasota / Bradenton, Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport, FL17 mi74 minSE 310.00 miFair79°F73°F82%1014.4 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL20 mi69 minN 010.00 miFair83°F82°F97%1015.2 hPa
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL21 mi74 minS 38.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F75°F79%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from SPG (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS11S7SE7W6W9W9W10W7W9SW7W9W6W3W4W4W5W3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW5
1 day agoNE6E5E10SE5S74NW7CalmN64N7N7N8N8CalmCalmCalmS9S4N3CalmCalmCalmS9
2 days agoSE5S5SE6SE5E8E6SE6NW7W7W7NW6N5N5CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmN3N3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Mullet Key Channel (Skyway), Florida
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Mullet Key Channel (Skyway)
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Fri -- 04:38 AM EDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:23 AM EDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:16 PM EDT     1.83 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:51 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel), Florida Current
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Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel)
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Fri -- 12:47 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:04 AM EDT     1.36 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:25 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:55 AM EDT     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:54 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:06 PM EDT     0.87 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:51 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:02 PM EDT     -1.11 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.