Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tierra Verde, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 8:18PM Thursday May 24, 2018 5:37 PM EDT (21:37 UTC) Moonrise 2:53PMMoonset 2:38AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ853 Coastal Waters From Englewood To Tarpon Springs Fl Out 20 Nm- 302 Pm Edt Thu May 24 2018
Tonight..South winds around 5 knots then becoming east around 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms in the evening.
Friday..South winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to around 15 knots late in the evening, then diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight then becoming east around 15 knots toward morning. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Widespread showers and scattered Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southeast winds around 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Widespread showers in the evening. Scattered Thunderstorms. Numerous showers after midnight.
Sunday..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to around 20 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Bay and inland waters rough. Numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds around 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Numerous showers in the evening. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Monday..South winds around 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to around 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Scattered Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 302 Pm Edt Thu May 24 2018
Synopsis..Atlantic high pressure is extending into the central gulf coast and will continue to hold through the end of the week. Winds and seas remain benign...except higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. A trough of low pressure currently along the east side of the yucatan peninsula lifts northward into the gulf of mexico during the weekend with increasing winds and seas. All mariners should continue to Monitor the progress of this system in the coming days.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tierra Verde, FL
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location: 27.61, -82.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 241901
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
301 pm edt Thu may 24 2018

Short term (tonight-Friday)
High pressure ridging across the area will weaken through
Friday as an area of low pressure over the NW caribbean
begins to move north into the yucatan channel. Moist and
unstable tropical air remains in place across the area
through the period, with afternoon shower and thunderstorm
activity diminishing for the overnight hours, and then
returning across the area late Friday morning through Friday
afternoon. Lows tonight expected in the lower to mid 70s.

Highs Friday generally in the mid to upper 80s. Will
continue to monitor the possible tropical development of the
area of low pressure for weekend impacts here.

Long term (Friday night-Thursday)
The main forecast concern for the end of the week into the
weekend continues to be the tropical disturbance currently
located near the yucatan peninsula. The national hurricane
center has increased the chance of development to 70% within
the next 2 days and 90% within the next 5 days. There are
some minor model differences in the eventual track and
timing, but generally expect this system to move into the
central or eastern gulf of mexico on Saturday, continuing to
drift northward toward the northern gulf coast region
Saturday night into Sunday. Global models then stall this
feature through Tuesday.

The overall forecast thinking has not changed much, as a
deep southeast to south flow will keep abundant tropical
moisture over the state through the weekend. We are still
expecting widespread 3-5 inch rainfall totals through this
event, with locally higher amounts certainly possible. In
addition to the heavy rainfall, saturated soils will
exacerbate the flooding concerns. Area rivers remain below
flood stage this afternoon, but again, additional rainfall
will likely lead to some minor flooding on several streams
and rivers. If this system tracks farther westward than
currently forecast, rainfall totals will likely be lower.

Once this system washes out, we will still be looking at
remnant tropical moisture over the region, so scattered
showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast
through Thursday.

Aviation
Showers and thunderstorms are starting to develop over the
southern terminals this afternoon and will spread across the
rest of the area over the next couple of hours. A weak sea
breeze is expected near the coast of the northern
terminals, otherwise light E SE flow will prevail through
the period. Thunderstorms diminish after 01z, with skies
clearing some overnight, then chances returning late Friday
morning.

Marine
Light E SE winds through the end of the week with likely
showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas higher near the
storms. Then will be monitoring an area of low pressure lift
northward from the yucatan channel area for possible
tropical development. At this time, it looks like the local
impacts from this are to raise winds, especially over the
offshore waters, to SCA levels, with possible gale force
gusts and showers and thunderstorms continuing. High
pressure will then build back in across the waters from the
atlantic for early next week.

Fire weather
No concerns.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 74 86 72 80 40 80 30 80
fmy 72 84 72 81 20 70 80 80
gif 73 87 72 81 20 50 30 70
srq 73 85 72 80 30 60 60 80
bkv 71 87 70 81 50 80 40 70
spg 74 85 73 81 40 70 40 80

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Short term aviation marine fire weather... 24 hubbard
mid term long term decision support... 05 carlisle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTBF1 8 mi80 min N 6 G 7 84°F 1016.3 hPa71°F
PMAF1 9 mi80 min 83°F 85°F1015.9 hPa
CLBF1 9 mi104 min E 1.9 G 6 94°F 1015.2 hPa
42098 11 mi68 min 82°F1 ft
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 12 mi86 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 89°F 81°F1016 hPa
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 19 mi80 min WSW 5.1 G 6 85°F 82°F1016.2 hPa
MCYF1 26 mi80 min 83°F
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 26 mi86 min W 9.9 G 11 80°F 83°F1016.6 hPa
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 27 mi80 min NE 4.1 G 8
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 27 mi92 min ESE 6 G 8.9
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 32 mi128 min W 5.8 G 5.8 81°F
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 38 mi104 min NW 9.9 G 12 84°F 1017.2 hPa
VENF1 - Venice, FL 40 mi98 min WNW 11 G 12 80°F 80°F1016.5 hPa (-1.8)75°F

Wind History for C-Cut, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albert Whitted Airport, FL12 mi45 minN 010.00 miFair91°F69°F49%1015.2 hPa
Sarasota / Bradenton, Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport, FL17 mi45 minNNW 510.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity79°F71°F77%1015.4 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL20 mi1.7 hrsS 310.00 miA Few Clouds89°F69°F54%1016.5 hPa
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL21 mi45 minNW 610.00 miA Few Clouds87°F77°F72%1015.7 hPa

Wind History from SPG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7NW7W6NW6N6N4S7W4CalmSE6S7S4CalmE5E9E6E5E4CalmCalmE3CalmNE3Calm
1 day agoSE8E4SE7SE8S5SE5SE6E8SE9SE9SE11SE10SE12SE10SE10SE9SE8SE7E4NE6NE3NE3CalmCalm
2 days agoE6S6CalmCalmNE3NE4SE12SE9SE10SE12SE11SE10SE10SE12SE11SE11SE9S9S6S9NE4E7NW3S10

Tide / Current Tables for Mullet Key Channel (Skyway), Florida
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Mullet Key Channel (Skyway)
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Thu -- 03:01 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:49 AM EDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:02 PM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:52 PM EDT     1.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.60.40.30.40.60.91.31.61.71.81.71.51.20.90.70.70.70.91.11.31.51.51.4

Tide / Current Tables for Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel), Florida Current
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Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel)
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:16 AM EDT     -1.05 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:27 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:05 AM EDT     1.43 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:22 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:22 PM EDT     -1.10 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:55 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:49 PM EDT     0.96 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.5-0.9-1-1-0.7-0.20.30.81.31.41.30.90.2-0.4-0.9-1.1-1.1-0.8-0.400.50.910.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.