Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tierra Verde, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 5:37PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 2:35 PM EST (19:35 UTC) Moonrise 4:12PMMoonset 4:10AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ853 Coastal Waters From Englewood To Tarpon Springs Fl Out 20 Nm- 1000 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
This afternoon..North winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming northwest around 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to around 15 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday night..North winds around 15 knots then becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday..East winds around 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming south around 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Saturday..West winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Showers likely.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 1000 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis..A weak frontal boundary will move through the waters today, but both winds and seas will remain below headlines. An area of low pressure will approach the area for the end of the week and move by to the north for the first half of the weekend. Winds will likely be around 15 knots periodically, but no headlines are expected until possibly Saturday, with exercise caution-level winds possible ahead of a front.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tierra Verde, FL
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location: 27.61, -82.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 201923
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
223 pm est Tue nov 20 2018

Short term (tonight - Wednesday)
Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue across our
southern areas this afternoon as a weak cold front continues
southward through the state.

High pressure over the central and southern plains today
will move slowly eastward, reaching the tennessee valley on
Wednesday. Drier air will filter on on northerly winds
tonight and Wednesday, resulting in a cooler night tonight
and a warm but comfortably dry day on Wednesday.

Mid long term (Wednesday night - Tuesday)
Zonal flow aloft along with surface high pressure building
toward the mid atlantic coast will support pleasant and
mainly dry weather across the entire forecast area through
the end of the thanksgiving holiday week with near seasonal
level temperatures expected.

Now during the upcoming weekend models continue to indicate
some unsettled weather for the forecast area as a series of
upper level troughs and attendant surface lows and fronts
move across the northern gulf coast and north florida within
the very active southern stream. Similar to yesterday
models agree fairly well with over the overall pattern
across the conus, but continue to offer varying solutions
with respect to timing and strength of these individual
features and their overall impacts on our weather.

Given the differences in the models will continue to use a
blend of the gfs ECMWF for now, and will advertise higher
rain chances for the weekend as the above mentioned features
affect the area. During late Sunday night models show an
even stronger upper level trough and attendant cold front
moving toward the area with the attendant cold front
sweeping southeast through the region on Monday with
additional rain chances along and ahead of it. During Monday
night into Tuesday much drier and cooler air will move into
the region in the wake of the front as strong surface high
pressure builds in from the northwest. Temperatures will run
above normal through early next week with lows mainly in
the 60s with daytime highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Cooler temperatures will return for Monday night into
Tuesday with slightly below normal readings expected.

Aviation
Some MVFR ceilings and or visibilities possible through 22z
or so around pgd, rsw, and fmy as showers and even a few
thunderstorms move by. Otherwise expect mainlyVFR through
the next 24 hours. While not shown in current tafs, pgd and
lal could see patchy shallow ground fog around sunrise on
Wednesday.

Marine
Winds behind the cold front have been north-northwesterly
at 10 to 15 knots. Don't expect to need any headlines for
this evening.

High pressure north of the gulf waters will move slowly
eastward toward the mid-atlantic region over the next couple
of days, then become absorbed by a larger high center
dropping out of canada and into new england on Thursday.

This will keep our waters in east to northeasterly flow
through Friday.

A cold front will move into the northwest gulf on Friday,
then into the florida panhandle Friday night. High pressure
will retreat into the atlantic during this time allowing
winds to turn southwesterly. A brief period of stronger
winds is possible between Friday night and Saturday,
possibly requiring small craft advisories late in the week.

Fire weather
No significant fire weather issues expected next several
days as relative humidities are forecast to remain above
critical levels the end of the week.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 61 77 56 74 0 0 0 10
fmy 65 81 61 78 0 0 0 10
gif 60 78 56 75 0 0 0 10
srq 63 77 58 75 0 0 0 10
bkv 53 75 50 73 0 0 0 10
spg 64 75 60 73 0 0 0 10

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Short term aviation marine fire weather... Jillson
mid term long term decision support... Mcmichael


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTBF1 8 mi36 min E 4.1 G 4.1 72°F 1017.3 hPa (-2.4)67°F
CLBF1 9 mi102 min NNW 1.9 G 7 79°F 1017.6 hPa
PMAF1 9 mi36 min 72°F 75°F1017.2 hPa (-2.2)
42098 11 mi36 min 74°F2 ft
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 12 mi42 min E 2.9 G 5.1 76°F 73°F1017.4 hPa
GCTF1 16 mi36 min 73°F 68°F
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 19 mi36 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 73°F 73°F1017.2 hPa (-2.7)
MCYF1 26 mi36 min 75°F
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 26 mi36 min NW 11 G 13 71°F 73°F1017.6 hPa (-2.6)
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 27 mi48 min S 4.1 G 6
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 32 mi66 min NNE 7.8 G 9.7 73°F 76°F1018.2 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 38 mi102 min N 7 G 8 70°F 1019.1 hPa
VENF1 - Venice, FL 40 mi36 min NW 6 G 8 73°F 75°F1017.8 hPa (-1.3)72°F

Wind History for C-Cut, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albert Whitted Airport, FL12 mi43 minE 410.00 miFair75°F69°F82%1016.6 hPa
Sarasota / Bradenton, Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport, FL17 mi43 minNNW 410.00 miA Few Clouds79°F69°F72%1016.7 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL20 mi40 minWNW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F67°F75%1017.6 hPa
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL21 mi43 minN 010.00 miFair78°F64°F64%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from SPG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4CalmE4CalmNW5N5N5N5N6N4CalmCalmE8E5E5E3SE3SE4S4SE3NW5N11
G16
NE6E4
1 day agoNE4NE3CalmN6N6N9N8N7N8N7N6N7N6N5NE5NE5NE7NE6NE7NE7NE5NE5CalmNE4
2 days agoN4N6N5N9N9N7N6N6N4NE9N5NE10N6N6N5N5N6N9N7NE5NE6NE6NE6NE3

Tide / Current Tables for Mullet Key Channel (Skyway), Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel), Florida Current
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Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel)
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:59 AM EST     -1.54 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:10 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:41 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:54 AM EST     1.48 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 01:04 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:21 PM EST     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:59 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:25 PM EST     1.30 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.9-1.4-1.5-1.4-1-0.40.20.81.31.51.20.70-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.400.511.31.20.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.