Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tierra Verde, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 5:38PM Saturday November 18, 2017 3:28 AM EST (08:28 UTC) Moonrise 6:53AMMoonset 6:07PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ853 Coastal Waters From Englewood To Tarpon Springs Fl Out 20 Nm- 824 Pm Est Fri Nov 17 2017
Rest of tonight..North winds around 10 knots then becoming east after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..Southeast winds around 10 knots then becoming southwest late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday night..West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming northwest around 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots then becoming northeast around 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Monday..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Monday night..East winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..East winds around 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds around 5 knots then becoming east after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of showers.
Wednesday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 824 Pm Est Fri Nov 17 2017
Synopsis.. Weak high pressure will slowly move east of the region through Saturday with light winds and slight seas. A fast moving cold front push across the waters on Sunday with a chance of showers. Post frontal north to northeast winds will develop over the waters Sunday night into Monday, with cautionary to advisory conditions likely, especially offshore. Winds will gradually subside late Monday as ridging shifts off to the east and weak low pressure moves over the waters into mid week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tierra Verde, FL
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location: 27.61, -82.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 180804
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
304 am est Sat nov 18 2017

Short term (today - Sunday)
A mid level ridge over the gulf of mexico and florida
peninsula today will get pushed southeast tonight and Sunday
as a strong trough swings east through the eastern conus.

The surface ridge is currently positioned northeast of
florida, setting up light easterly low level flow. This
surface ridge will drift south across the state today as a
cold front associated with the mid level trough approaches
from the northwest. Under this ridging, rain free
conditions with mostly clear skies will continue today and
tonight, with temperatures continuing to moderate and
running near to a few degrees above normal.

On Sunday, the cold front will quickly move southeast across
the area. Limited moisture will be sufficient to allow for
chances of showers and thunderstorms moving north to south
through the area, with the highest chances farthest to the
north. High temperatures will be cooler behind the front on
Sunday north of interstate 4, but the front will generally
arrive too late to limit high temperatures to the south.

Long term (Sunday night - Friday)
A cold front will be exiting to the south of the forecast
area Sunday night. In the wake of the front much cooler
and drier air will advect into the region on a breezy
northerly wind flow as surface high pressure builds in
across the southeastern u.S. And northern gulf with very
pleasant dry weather expected through Monday night as the
high slides east toward the mid atlantic coast.

On Tuesday the surface high along the mid atlantic coast
will slide east into the atlantic during the day as a
short wave energy slides eastward across the area. The cold
front which had moved south of the region Sunday night will
lift back to the north as a warm front during the day.

Increasing lift along the northward moving warm front
combined with increasing low level moisture within the
return east-southeast wind flow around the departing surface
high and the short wave energy aloft will support scattered
showers (pops in the 40 to 50 percent range) developing
across the region during the day along with moderating
temperatures and increasing humidity levels.

During Tuesday night into Wednesday models show another and
more vigorous positively tilted short wave trough and
possible closed low moving from the southern plains across
the lower mississippi valley and into the west central gulf
of mexico. The ECMWF gfs and canadian models continue to
struggle with the evolution and timing of this system, with
the GFS now the most aggressive, intense, and fastest in
moving this system eastward while the euro and canadian are
slower and more open with the upper trough vs closing off a
closed low as depicted by the gfs. Despite these differences
though the models do agree that the short wave trough and
or closed low will deepen over the west central gulf during
Wednesday night into Thursday with surface cyclogenesis
likely occurring somewhere over the eastern gulf during
Wednesday night or early Thursday morning, with this low
then intensifying some as it moves east northeast toward and
across the region during Thursday night and Friday via a
blend of the model solutions, although exact location and
movement of the surface low is still uncertain at this time,
thus confidence in anyone solution remains low at this
time.

Regardless of which solution pans out increasing moisture
within a deep layered southwest wind flow ahead of the
above mentioned features combined with increasing large
scale lift and upper level divergence should support
increasing rain chances (pops 50 to 70 percent) across the
forecast area Wednesday night through thanksgiving day and
continuing into Friday as this storm system affects the
region.

Below normal temperatures with chilly readings in the lower
to mid 40s from the i-4 corridor north into the nature
coast, upper 40s to lower 50s central interior, and mid to
upper 50s south early Monday morning will quickly moderate
back to slightly above normal on Tuesday and Wednesday as
the flow become east southeast. Temperatures should then
fall back to near or slightly below normal during Thursday
and Friday as rain chances increase across the area.

Aviation
Patchy fog will continue to be possible through just after
sunrise, most likely around klal and kpgd, with MVFR or ifr
conditions possible. Otherwise,VFR conditions will hold
through the next 24 hours, with mostly clear skies.

Marine
High pressure will gradually settle south across the waters
today and tonight, with light and variable winds
continuing. A cold front will move southeast through the
coastal waters on Sunday, with winds increasing and becoming
northerly before turning to northeasterly Sunday night.

Cautionary, or low end advisory level winds will be possible
Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure will then fill in
north of the area Monday and Tuesday, with east winds around
15 knots or less.

Fire weather
Some patchy fog will be possible early this morning.

Otherwise, no fire weather concerns expected through the
weekend.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 78 66 77 52 0 10 40 10
fmy 80 63 80 59 0 0 20 10
gif 80 60 78 50 0 0 40 10
srq 76 64 76 54 0 10 40 10
bkv 79 60 76 46 0 10 40 0
spg 78 66 76 55 0 10 40 10

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Short term aviation marine fire weather... 18 fleming
mid term long term decision support... 57 mcmichael


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLBF1 9 mi95 min E 1 G 1.9 65°F 1016 hPa
42098 11 mi29 min 72°F1 ft
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 32 mi59 min ESE 14 G 16 75°F
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 38 mi95 min ESE 6 G 7 64°F 1017.4 hPa
VENF1 - Venice, FL 40 mi29 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 62°F 72°F1016.2 hPa (-1.7)59°F

Wind History for C-Cut, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albert Whitted Airport, FL12 mi36 minESE 810.00 miFair66°F60°F81%1015.9 hPa
Sarasota / Bradenton, Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport, FL17 mi36 minENE 410.00 miFair59°F57°F93%1015.9 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL20 mi33 minVar 510.00 miFair64°F57°F78%1016.8 hPa
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL21 mi36 minSE 410.00 miFair60°F57°F90%1016.4 hPa

Wind History from SPG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE12NE9NE12NE10NE12NE13NE12NE10NE6E4E3NE8CalmNE4N7N8N8N8N6N6NE3E8SE8SE8
1 day agoNE11NE13NE13NE12NE13NE9NE12NE9N8NE9NE8NE8NE9N7N8N8N6N6N5N6NE10E12E11NE11
2 days agoNE13NE13NE13NE12NE13NE12NE11NE9E8NE6N6NE6N7N9N10N10N9NE15NE13NE12NE11NE10NE9NE11

Tide / Current Tables for Mullet Key Channel (Skyway), Florida
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Mullet Key Channel (Skyway)
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Sat -- 06:01 AM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:51 PM EST     1.49 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:59 PM EST     1.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:07 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:52 PM EST     2.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.71.20.70.3-0-0.1-00.20.611.31.41.51.41.31.21.11.21.41.722.22.2

Tide / Current Tables for Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel), Florida Current
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Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel)
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:59 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:33 AM EST     -1.95 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:33 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:47 AM EST     1.67 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:27 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:21 PM EST     -0.49 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:07 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:22 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:45 PM EST     1.27 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.8-0-0.8-1.5-1.9-1.9-1.6-1.1-0.40.31.11.51.71.40.80.2-0.2-0.5-0.4-0.20.30.81.21.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.