Saturday, April21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tierra Grande, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:59PM Saturday April 21, 2018 10:36 AM CDT (15:36 UTC) Moonrise 10:54AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ230 Bays And Waterways From Baffin Bay To Port Aransas- 1004 Am Cdt Sat Apr 21 2018
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of today..Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Bays choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bays choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy to occasionally rough.
Sunday night..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth to slightly choppy.
Monday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots shifting east in the afternoon. Bays smooth.
Monday night..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth.
Tuesday..East wind around 5 knots shifting southeast in the afternoon. Bays smooth.
Tuesday night..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
Wednesday..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth.
Wednesday night..East wind 5 to 10 knots shifting northeast after midnight. Bays smooth to slightly choppy.
GMZ200 1004 Am Cdt Sat Apr 21 2018
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters.. Moderate southeast flow will prevail today and may flirt with small craft advisory levels at times. Wind speeds will weaken tonight as a cold front approaches the area from the north. The front should push across area waters late tonight and into Sunday morning...with moderate to strong north flow developing in its wake. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms are possible today. A thin band of showers or even a Thunderstorm may accompany the front tonight. A weak wind pattern will exist on Monday night and Tuesday with an area of high pressure over the western gulf of mexico. Another cold front will move into the middle texas coastal waters by Wednesday evening.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tierra Grande, TX
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location: 27.74, -97.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Corpus Christi, TX
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Fxus64 kcrp 211352
afdcrp
area forecast discussion
national weather service corpus christi tx
852 am cdt Sat apr 21 2018

Discussion
See marine discussion below for latest updates.

Marine
Have expanded the slight chance of tsra's across the waters for
this morning. Ongoing tsra's are moving toward the waters and
meso-scale models show this area of rain moving northeast toward
hgx's area through the remainder of the morning hours.

Previous discussion issued 643 am cdt Sat apr 21 2018
discussion... As of 1130z, elevated convection persists across the
brush country. Dpva associated with a rather potent h5 S W trough
advecting across coahuila mx is aiding in convective development
this morning... With the ongoing convection located in an area of
high MUCAPE (latest NAM progs MUCAPE values around 1500 j kg) as
well as being located on the eastern edge of an area of higher
sfc-6km and especially sfc-8km deep layer shear values.

Convection should gradually diminish over the next couple of hours
as it moves into an area of lower MUCAPE and as the
aforementioned mid level disturbance shifts a little nnerly. Have
increased pops slightly for this morning across the brush country
with this update.

Previous discussion... Issued 608 am cdt Sat apr 21 2018
discussion... Update for 12z aviation.

Aviation... Convection vcnty of klrd (as of writing) should shift
east early in the TAF period and may diminish or dissipate before
reaching kali. Aside from brief period of early mrng
convection... Iso to sct shra and additional iso tsra will be
possible today across S tx. MVFR CIGS will prevail for much of the
day... Though klrd may clear out some this aftn. Period of low end
MVFR upper end ifr and reductions in vsbys possible this evening
and overnight across kcrp kvct kali as sfc winds calm ahead of a
cold front. FROPA xpctd to occur from N to S late in the night
with a thin band of shra iso tsra possible across kvct and kcrp.

Eserly sfc winds today become breezy at times across kcrp to kvct.

Previous discussion... Issued 518 am cdt Sat apr 21 2018
discussion... Will be increasing pops for rest of tonight and
early Saturday for the W brush country. Convection has rapidly
developed just west of laredo over the last hour. Mesoanalysis
indicates an h5 S W trough advecting east across coahuila mx with
an axis of deeper moisture draped along the rio grande.

Combination of these factors are leading to some elevated
convection along the rio grande... Which may persist for a few
hours. Only guidance that seems to be picking up on this is the
06z nam. Will lean near term forecast towards that guidance suite.

Previous discussion... Issued 424 am cdt Sat apr 21 2018
short term (today through Sunday)...

waa has been trying to strengthen overnight... But pooling of llvl
moisture may still be lacking some. The kcrp wsr 88d vad wind
profile is indicating a southerly LLJ of 40 to 45 kts... But this
may be overestimating a bit as the radar may be detecting the
spring avian migration (per reflectivity imagery as of writing).

Regardless... The llvl flow aloft is rather southerly and we need
it to become sse or serly to get better llvl moisture advection.

For this morning... It's currently appearing less and less likely
that we will see much in the way of precip. Guidance continues to
insist that we will see a notable increase in moisture levels in
the sfc-h7 layer this morning... Which may still happen. However,
the LLJ is prog to maintain itself across the coastal plains for
much of the day which should result in too much in the way of
diurnal mixing breezy conditions to allow much in the way of
showers to develop maintain themselves. Have lowered pops for this
morning, as a result. While an isolated shower may still occur
today... Slightly better chances may exist across the western
coastal plains where the LLJ will be weaker... And across the
victoria area where moisture depth will be the greatest. Even
there... Chances are not all that great. For the afternoon, shower
activity may increase slightly across the NE brush country and
towards beeville and goliad... To perhaps victoria... As a modest
increase in instability occurs. However... A strong EML around h7
should preclude much, if any, thunderstorms from occurring.

Caveat to this is if more sunshine than expected occurs this
afternoon across S tx... Which would result in greater instability
and better chances of lifting parcels above the eml. Only the 00z
ecmwf is indicating this potential (and to an extent, the cmc).

Aside from precip chances... Breezy conditions are likely across
the eastern third of the CWA where the core of the LLJ is prog to
exist... While light winds occur across the brush country as a sfc
dryline tries to shift east out of mx. Cloud cover should keep
temps at or slightly below normal today across much of the area
(except along the rio grande).

Most areas should be dry this evening (aside from a lingering
shower across the victoria area). Significantly drier air aloft is
prog to spread across the region by mid to late evening as a
strong mid level trough to our north shifts east. With drier air
spreading over the moist lower levels, some fog may occur by
mid late evening across inland areas... If sfc winds can decrease
enough. Overnight... A cold front will approach the area from the
north. Guidance indicates a vort MAX may wrap around the
aforementioned trough low late in the night which may aid in a
thin band of showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop along
the front as it pushes across the victoria area and down the
coast. Most areas tonight, however, will still remain dry.

A drier airmass will spread south across the region on Sunday
with northerly flow prevailing. Despite northerly flow... The drier
air will allow for stronger warming and thus MAX temps on Sunday
may be a few degrees warmer than today's MAX temps.

Long term... (Sunday night through Friday)...

progressive pattern will continue for much of next week with a
series of upper troughs moving across the central part of the
country. To begin the period, upper low will slowly shift into the
mid-south, leaving weak ridging to zonal flow across south texas
Monday into Tuesday. Another upper level system will then dive
southeast of the northern and central plains heading into Wednesday.

The associated cold front will be approaching the region Wednesday
evening. However, models have been inconsistent with precip chances
with this boundary. For consistency sake, will keep pops below
mentionable levels for now. A potentially stronger front may move
through south texas at the end of the forecast period. Latest
guidance has come in wetter for the end of the week, but confidence
is not high enough to mention showers and storms just yet. If these
trends continue, then rain chances will likely need to be introduced
for Friday.

Regarding temperatures, it will be warm throughout the week under
partly to mostly cloudy skies. Highs will primarily be in the upper
70s over the northern coastal bend with 80s for the remainder of the
area. The warmest days of the week will be Tuesday into Wednesday as
highs may approach 90 degrees over the rio grande plains.

Preliminary point temps pops
Corpus christi 81 66 84 60 82 20 20 10 10 0
victoria 78 61 80 55 81 40 30 0 0 0
laredo 86 65 87 64 86 30 10 0 10 10
alice 81 64 86 59 85 20 10 10 10 10
rockport 79 65 80 62 79 20 30 0 0 0
cotulla 83 59 83 58 86 20 10 0 0 10
kingsville 82 67 86 60 84 10 10 10 10 10
navy corpus 79 68 81 65 78 20 20 10 10 0

Crp watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

Te 81... Short term


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TAQT2 - 8775296 - Texas State Aquarium, TX 6 mi48 min 72°F 72°F1012.5 hPa
NUET2 7 mi48 min SE 14 G 17 70°F1013.5 hPa
PACT2 - 8775792 - Packery Channel, TX 13 mi48 min ESE 11 G 14
MQTT2 - 8775870 - Malaquite Beach (Corpus Christi), TX 17 mi48 min SE 17 G 19
IRDT2 19 mi48 min E 8.9 G 12 73°F 71°F1014.9 hPa
RTAT2 - 8775237 - Port Aransas, TX 21 mi48 min ESE 9.9 G 15
PTAT2 - Port Aransas, TX 22 mi36 min SE 17 G 21 72°F 70°F1013.5 hPa (+0.4)70°F
ANPT2 23 mi48 min ESE 15 G 18 72°F 71°F1013.1 hPa
BABT2 - 8776604 - Baffin Bay; Point of Rocks, TX 31 mi48 min ESE 12 G 16
AWRT2 48 mi48 min ESE 9.9 G 14

Wind History for Nueces Bay, TX
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E17
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G25
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NE23
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G12
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SE13
G17
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NE16
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G23

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi International Airport, TX3 mi45 minSSE 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F72°F96%1013.4 hPa
Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi Naval Air Station/Truax Field, TX9 mi1.7 hrsSE 89.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F0°F%1014.7 hPa
Robstown, Nueces County Airport, TX13 mi41 minSE 1310.00 miFair72°F69°F92%1013.5 hPa
Mc Campbell, TX17 mi41 minSSE 14 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F69°F91%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from CRP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE13E18E18
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E16E16E17E16SE17SE15SE14SE9SE9SE11SE10SE9SE9SE9SE9SE7SE10SE16
1 day agoNE20
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E13E11E9SE6SE8E4E5CalmCalmSE4CalmE4E3E6E7E10
G19
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2 days agoS15S11E11E15SE13E11
G19
SE14
G22
SE10E9SE12SE6E6E5E5E5SE5CalmCalmN5NE5N20
G24
NE15NE17NE17
G26

Tide / Current Tables for Nueces Bay, Texas
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Nueces Bay
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:56 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:58 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:24 AM CDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:53 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:58 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:47 PM CDT     0.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.30.30.20.20.10.10.100000.10.10.10.20.20.30.30.30.40.40.40.4

Tide / Current Tables for Aransas Pass, Texas Current
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Aransas Pass
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:13 AM CDT     -1.83 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 12:54 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:37 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:57 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:17 AM CDT     1.91 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:51 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:40 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:56 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.8-1.8-1.5-1.2-0.8-0.30.20.81.31.71.91.91.71.51.310.70.3-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.8-1.1-1.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Corpus Christi, TX (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Corpus Christi, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.