Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Treasure Island, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 8:19PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 8:32 PM EDT (00:32 UTC) Moonrise 4:03AMMoonset 5:04PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 255 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through late Wednesday night...
Tonight..Southwest winds around 15 knots then becoming south around 20 knots toward morning. Bay and inland waters choppy. A slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..Southwest winds around 20 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds around 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters choppy. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Thursday..West winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..West winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday..Southwest winds around 5 knots then becoming west around 5 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Friday night..Northwest winds around 5 knots then becoming west around 5 knots toward morning. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Saturday..South winds around 5 knots then becoming west around 5 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Saturday night..West winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Sunday..West winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 255 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
Synopsis.. Deteriorating marine conditions can be expected across the gulf waters tonight through Wednesday night as a cold front approaches and moves south through the waters. South to southwest winds will increase to around 20 knots tonight then 20 to 25 knots with frequent gusts up to gale force likely on Wednesday as the flow shifts to the west and northwest Wednesday night into Thursday. The increasing winds will lead to building seas with rough boating conditions developing for small craft operators. In addition to the winds and seas widespread showers and scattered Thunderstorms can be expected which will reduce visibilities to mile or less at times through the period. Lighter winds and seas will return to the waters Thursday night through the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds in over the region in the wake of the front.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Treasure Island city, FL
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location: 27.77, -82.78     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 232329
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
729 pm edt Tue may 23 2017

Aviation
Vfr conditions are generally expected through most of tonight. An
approaching cold front will bring deteriorating conditions to the
region for much of Wednesday, with lowered cig and vis in showers
and thunderstorms possible starting in the morning and continuing
through the forecast period. Southwest winds will increase through
the day, with gusts to around 30 knots expected.

Prev discussion issued 233 pm edt Tue may 23 2017

Severe storms possible tonight and Wednesday...

Minor coastal flooding possible Wednesday through early
Thursday...

short term (tonight - Wednesday)...

a large and potent upper level trough and closed low over the
northern mississippi valley this afternoon will sink southeast
through the mid mississippi valley later tonight through Wednesday,
then across the southeastern states Wednesday night as an attendant
surface low over the oh valley lifts north into the eastern great
lakes region. As this low lifts out a trailing cold front from it
will move across the southeastern states on Wednesday, then south
through the forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday.

Ample low level moisture (pw's increasing toward 2 inches) within
the deep layered southwest wind flow ahead of the front combined
with sufficient instability will support increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms over the forecast area tonight through
Wednesday. In addition strengthening wind fields will support
increasing shear within the atmosphere which will be supportive of
organized convection and supercells with a favorable environment for
severe storms to develop with damaging winds and large hail the
primary hazards, with a potential for a tornado or two as well.

At the present time guidance suggests rain chances will increase
significantly across the nature coast tonight, with the increasing
rain chances then spreading south to the tampa bay area toward
sunrise, and then across the remainder of the region during
Wednesday and Wednesday night. With regards to the severe threat it
now appears that the best chances for severe storms will be during
Wednesday afternoon and evening when a low level jet (45-50 knots)
and large scale forcing for ascent overspreads the region, however
some strong to severe storms will also be possible across the nature
coast tonight through Wednesday morning as the environment becomes
increasingly favorable for strong to severe storms. In addition to
the severe threat some locally heavy rainfall will be possible which
may produce some minor flooding of low lying and poor drainage
areas, as well as the ponding of water on roadways. Frequent deadly
lightning will also accompany the storms.

Strong and gusty south to southwest winds ahead of the front will
support increasing seas over the adjacent gulf waters with hazardous
surf conditions developing along area beaches along with a high risk
of rip currents. In addition the strong onshore flow will likely
cause tides to run some 1 to 2 feet above normal at times of high
tide late tonight into Wednesday which may result in some minor
coastal flooding along the coast. Residents living along the coast
should monitor water levels and be ready to move to higher ground if
flooding is observed. The strong and gusty winds will also produce
hazardous boating conditions on area lakes and a lake wind advisory
will likely be required on Wednesday. All residents and visitors to
west central and southwest florida should keep abreast of the latest
forecast tonight through Wednesday.

Long term (Wednesday night - Monday)...

severe weather event likely to be ongoing still as we move into
Wednesday evening into the first half of the day on Thursday. Much
of the area will be experiencing rain still at this time as the
front continues to slowly move through the area. Thursday will
feature gradual clearing from north to south throughout the day
with rain chances decreasing as well. The majority of the showers
and storms should be to the south of the area by mid afternoon
Thursday.

Drier air will move into the area behind the front keeping the area
sunny and dry. Models pws remain below an inch across much of the
forecast area into Sunday before a gradual increase in moisture
begins on Sunday. Greatest moisture will remain confined across
southern zones where low-end rain chances are introduced again on
Sunday but most will likely stay dry. Moisture will continue to
slowly increase into the start of next week with a return to
afternoon showers and storms. Temps will be seasonal through much of
the period. Thursday we will only top out in the low to mid 80s with
the lingering clouds and rain. However, we will warm up Friday into
the weekend as we return to seasonal norms, upper 80s to lower 90s
area wide.

Aviation...

brief MVFR CIGS will be possible from ksrq north to ktpa and kpie
through 20z this afternoon, otherwiseVFR with high clouds AOA 200
are expected. South to southwest winds in the 14 to 18 knot range
with gusts up to 28 knots can be expected. Winds will diminish to 10
to 12 knots after 01z tonight, then increase to 15 to 20 knots after
15z on Wednesday with gusts up to 30 knots possible.VFR will
continue early tonight, but MVFR CIGS along with vcts will be
possible at the northern terminals after 09z as clouds and rain
chances increase ahead of a cold front, with these conditions
spreading to the southern terminals after 12z.

Marine...

deteriorating marine conditions can be expected across the gulf
waters tonight through Wednesday night as a cold front approaches
and moves south through the waters. South to southwest winds will
increase to around 20 knots tonight then 20 to 25 knots with
frequent gusts up to gale force likely on Wednesday as the flow
shifts to the west and northwest Wednesday night into Thursday. The
increasing winds will lead to building seas with rough boating
conditions developing for small craft operators. Given these expected
conditions will raise small craft headlines for all of the waters
tonight through Wednesday night. In addition to the winds and seas
widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms can be expected which
will reduce visibilities to mile or less at times through the
period. Lighter winds and seas will return to the waters Thursday
night through the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds in over
the region in the wake of the front.

Fire weather...

humidity values will remain well above critical levels through
mid week with no red flag conditions expected. Strong and gusty
20 foot winds and transport winds will support high dispersion
indices across the region tonight through Wednesday.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 78 82 73 83 20 80 70 30
fmy 77 86 75 85 10 70 80 60
gif 75 84 70 83 20 80 80 40
srq 79 83 74 82 20 80 80 30
bkv 74 80 68 82 30 90 70 30
spg 78 82 73 82 20 80 80 30

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through Wednesday evening for
coastal charlotte-coastal hillsborough-coastal lee-
coastal manatee-coastal sarasota-pinellas.

Lake wind advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for coastal
charlotte-coastal citrus-coastal hernando-coastal
hillsborough-coastal lee-coastal levy-coastal manatee-
coastal pasco-coastal sarasota-desoto-hardee-
highlands-inland charlotte-inland citrus-inland
hernando-inland hillsborough-inland lee-inland levy-
inland manatee-inland pasco-inland sarasota-pinellas-
polk-sumter.

Coastal flood watch from 2 am edt Wednesday through
Thursday morning for coastal citrus-coastal hernando-
coastal hillsborough-coastal levy-coastal manatee-
coastal pasco-coastal sarasota-pinellas.

Gulf waters... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Thursday for coastal
waters from tarpon springs to suwannee river fl out
20 nm-waters from tarpon springs to suwannee river fl
out 20 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory from 4 am Wednesday to 5 am edt
Thursday for coastal waters from englewood to tarpon
springs fl out 20 nm-tampa bay waters-waters from
englewood to tarpon springs fl out 20 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory from 8 am Wednesday to 5 am edt
Thursday for charlotte harbor and pine island sound-
coastal waters from bonita beach to englewood fl out
20 nm-waters from bonita beach to englewood fl out 20
to 60 nm.

Aviation... 05 carlisle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLBF1 5 mi98 min SSW 12 G 19 83°F 1010.4 hPa
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 8 mi50 min SSW 14 G 21 81°F 83°F1010.7 hPa
MTBF1 12 mi50 min SW 19 G 23 81°F 1011.3 hPa74°F
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 13 mi50 min SSW 19 G 22 82°F 84°F1011.2 hPa
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 15 mi50 min SSW 21 G 25 81°F 84°F1010.8 hPa
PMAF1 15 mi50 min 81°F 84°F1010.7 hPa
MCYF1 21 mi50 min 85°F
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 22 mi56 min SW 16 G 21
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 22 mi56 min S 8 G 13
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 26 mi98 min SW 21 G 24 82°F 1010.7 hPa
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 42 mi62 min SSW 14 G 18 81°F
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 46 mi98 min WSW 8.9 G 17 83°F 1010.6 hPa

Wind History for St. Petersburg, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Petersburg Whitted Airport, FL8 mi39 minSW 14 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F73°F82%1010.3 hPa
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL11 mi39 minSSW 15 G 2410.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F72°F72%1010.8 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL15 mi94 minSSW 1610.00 miFair83°F74°F77%1011.1 hPa
Tampa, Tampa International Airport, FL19 mi39 minSSW 11 G 1810.00 miOvercast83°F72°F70%1011 hPa
Tampa, Peter O Knight Airport, FL20 mi57 minSW 19 G 2410.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy84°F75°F74%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from SPG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW4W4SW4SW4SW4SW5SW6SW6SW8SW10S11S8SW10
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1 day agoN3N6N4NE5S3SE3E5SW9SW6W6SW5SW4SW45S9S7S73SW8SW11W13
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2 days agoS7SE20
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CalmSW4S6SE5SE6SE7SE8SE9SE10SE8SE7SE6E3E4E3CalmW8W10W9NW6W9NW8

Tide / Current Tables for Johns Pass, Florida
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Johns Pass
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:24 AM EDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:19 AM EDT     2.25 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:38 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:52 PM EDT     1.63 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.41.210.80.81.11.41.82.12.22.221.61.20.70.30-00.20.50.91.31.6

Tide / Current Tables for Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel), Florida Current
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Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel)
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:41 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:58 AM EDT     -0.86 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:35 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:15 AM EDT     1.56 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 01:01 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:22 PM EDT     -2.07 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:20 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:30 PM EDT     1.74 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.10.5-0.2-0.7-0.9-0.7-0.30.20.81.31.51.40.90-0.9-1.7-2-2-1.6-1-0.30.51.21.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.