Friday, October20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Apollo Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 6:56PM Friday October 20, 2017 12:20 PM EDT (16:20 UTC) Moonrise 7:12AMMoonset 6:51PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 919 Am Edt Fri Oct 20 2017
This afternoon..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tonight..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Saturday..East winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Saturday night..East winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Sunday..East winds around 15 knots then becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered showers in the evening. A slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming south around 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Thunderstorms likely.
Tuesday..West winds around 10 knots then becoming northwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 919 Am Edt Fri Oct 20 2017
Synopsis..Strong high pressure to the north will be the dominant surface feature influencing the weather over the coastal waters with gusty east-northeast winds reaching small craft advisory level at times over the next couple of days. A cold front approaches the area next week shifting winds and seas from the south by the Monday ahead of the front and rain/storm chances will be on the increase. Winds will further shift to the north-northwest by the middle of next week in the wake of this front. Drier air and decreasing rain chances expected into next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Apollo Beach, FL
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location: 27.79, -82.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 201310
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
910 am edt Fri oct 20 2017

Update
Water vapor imagery showing upper ridging building over the
region from the gulf while large surface high pressure holds
over the eastern u.S. With breezy ene low level flow off the
atlantic. Expect similar day as yesterday with warm and
humid conditions but low measurable rain chances.

Aviation
Vfr conditions all sites all day with ene gusty winds.

Marine
Pressure gradient slightly relaxed over the E gulf this
morning but easterly surges to again bring winds and seas
into SCA conditions tonight. Latest buoy and coastal sites
showing winds in the 10-15kt range and seas 2-4 ft near
shore up to 5 ft well offshore.

Prev discussion issued 318 am edt Fri oct 20 2017
short term (today - Saturday)...

the upper level trough has moved eastward over bermuda and extends
southwest over the bahamas. Upper level ridging extends from the
central gulf of mexico northward over the southeast u.S. This ridge
will slowly shift east through the weekend and will be the dominant
upper feature through the period. On the surface, the main influence
to the weather over florida will be from strong high pressure to the
north over the mid-atlantic states. This will keep an east-northeast
wind flow over the region through the end of the week and into the
weekend with minimal rain chances between 10-30 percent each day.

Winds will generally be below 15 knots, however some gusts near 20
knots will be possible over the coastal waters.

Long term (Sunday through next Thursday)...

the forecast for the florida peninsula beyond Sunday will be highly
dependent on the evolution of an expected high amplitude
pattern forecast to develop over the central eastern conus
through the middle of the week. There is a very strong
signal in the ensemble guidance that we will be seeing our
first significant cold frontal passage during the first half
of next week... With Tuesday being the most probable time
period. There is however still some questions around just
how "significant" the replacing airmass will be. Generally
speaking, nwp tends to have a cold bias in the days 4-8
period for our area, especially with early season cold
frontal passages. Make no mistake, it appears likely that we
will see quite a refreshing airmass here for the middle and
later portion of next week when compared to what we have
seen the past 3-5 months, it is just more uncertain whether
areas of the nature coast will see 40s, or tampa will see
temps drop into the 50s. These are plausible solutions,
however, will have to see if the typical biases begin to
show themselves in the next couple of model runs.

Ahead of this system, the pattern begins to really amplify into
the eastern half of the nation Sunday and Sunday night as
large scale troughing digs through the central plains toward
the ms valley. Already strong mid upper ridging over the
eastern seaboard and florida will further amplify in
response to the height falls to its west. The strength of
this downstream ridging looks to cause this troughing to
close off and slow down over the deep south during Monday. A
second piece of northern stream energy will then begin to
rapidly amplify into the eastern CONUS and finally propel
the initial shortwave eastward the across our region Monday
night Tuesday.

Our best rain chances of the long term forecast period... Along
and ahead of an associated surface cold front will
accompany this shortwave passage. Warm and humid conditions
Sunday into Monday will be pushed south with the front, as a
cooler and much drier airmass begins to invade the fl
peninsula by later Tuesday and especially Tuesday night.

Many model members are suggesting an initial surge of drier
air later Tuesday, with a secondary push arriving Wednesday
with the deepest amplification of the eastern CONUS trough.

Showers and storm will push south of the region by later
Tuesday (as it appears now), and leave the remainder of the work
week with a dry forecast. Temperatures are currently
forecast to drop below average for the second half of the
work week, especially Wednesday night through Thursday
night... With the driest dewpoints we have seen here in the
fl peninsula in many months.

Marine...

strong high pressure to the north will be the dominant surface
feature influencing the weather over the coastal waters for the next
several days. Storm rain chances will be very low, but the main
marine concern will be gusty east-northeast winds reaching small
craft advisory level at times over the next couple of days. The
weather pattern will change by the beginning of next week as a cold
front approaches the area. Winds will shift to the south by the
Monday ahead of the front and rain storm chances will be on the
increase. Winds will further shift to the north-northwest by the
middle of next week in the wake of this front. Drier air and
decreasing rain chances expected into next week. No other marine
impacts expected.

Fire weather...

high pressure will influence the weather over the region for the
next few days will minimal rain chances expected. A cold front will
move through the area by the beginning of next week with increasing
rain chances expected. Drier air will move into the area in the wake
of this front, but still expected to remain below any
critical fire weather threshold. No other fire weather
impacts expected.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 88 72 89 74 0 0 0 10
fmy 87 73 88 74 20 10 20 10
gif 87 69 87 72 10 0 10 10
srq 88 72 89 74 10 0 10 10
bkv 88 66 88 71 0 0 0 10
spg 86 74 87 74 0 0 0 10

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 11 am edt
Saturday for waters from bonita beach to englewood fl
out 20 to 60 nm-waters from englewood to tarpon
springs fl out 20 to 60 nm-waters from tarpon springs
to suwannee river fl out 20 to 60 nm.

Update aviation marine fire weather... 25 davis
upper air... 69 close
decision support... 72 noah


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 5 mi123 min ENE 8 G 17 78°F 79°F1020.2 hPa
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 6 mi129 min ENE 11 G 16 78°F 80°F1020.3 hPa
MTBF1 10 mi123 min E 16 G 19 77°F 1020.1 hPa
CLBF1 10 mi147 min ENE 7 G 15 79°F 1019.1 hPa
MCYF1 10 mi123 min 80°F
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 11 mi135 min NNE 6 G 8.9
PMAF1 11 mi123 min 78°F 79°F1019.1 hPa
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 11 mi129 min ENE 8 G 13
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 21 mi129 min NE 8.9 G 13 77°F 78°F1020.5 hPa

Wind History for Old Port Tampa, FL
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Last
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NE8
G14
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NE7
G11
NE10
G18
NE10
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NE9
G12
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G12
NE5
G9
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G10
NE6
G11
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NE6
G10
NE4
G8
NE5
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G14
1 day
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NE9
G13
NE6
G13
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G18
NE10
G15
NE9
G18
NE9
G15
NE7
G12
NE7
G13
NE4
G8
NE9
G13
NE7
G12
NE7
G11
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G12
N9
N6
G9
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NE7
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G13
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NE5
G12
NE8
G12
NE9
G12
NE7
G12
NE6
G13
NE7
G12
NE9
G13
NE8
G13
NE10
G15
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G12
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G17
NE7
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N9
G12
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G16
NE7
G10
NE5
G8
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G8
NE4
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G12
NE8
G13
NE8
G11
NE11
G17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL5 mi83 minNNE 10 G 1510.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F68°F66%1020.1 hPa
Albert Whitted Airport, FL6 mi28 minE 1510.00 miFair80°F70°F71%1019.2 hPa
Tampa, Peter O Knight Airport, FL9 mi26 minENE 11 G 1810.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F68°F66%1020 hPa
Tampa, Tampa International Airport, FL12 mi28 minENE 10 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F66°F57%1020 hPa
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL12 mi28 minENE 9 G 1510.00 miA Few Clouds84°F69°F61%1019.6 hPa
Tampa, Vandenberg Airport, FL18 mi26 minENE 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F68°F58%1020 hPa
Plant City, Plant City Municipal Airport, FL24 mi26 minNE 11 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F66°F55%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from MCF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE86--NE8
G14
NE9
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NE6NE10
G17
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NE6NE9NE7NE10
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1 day agoN8
G14
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NE75NE7
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NE8--NE9
G13
2 days agoNE10
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NE7NE10
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NE9
G19
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G15
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G18
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NE9
G16
6NE8
G13
NE9
G15
NE8
G15
NE9
G17
--NE8
G15
NE9
G13
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Tampa, Old Tampa Bay, Florida
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Port Tampa
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:57 AM EDT     2.66 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:50 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:19 PM EDT     2.30 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:26 PM EDT     1.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.92.32.62.72.52.21.71.20.70.40.30.50.81.31.82.12.32.321.71.51.31.31.5

Tide / Current Tables for Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa), Florida Current
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Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa)
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:56 AM EDT     1.03 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:51 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:40 AM EDT     -1.29 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:59 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:49 PM EDT     1.22 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:10 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT     -0.79 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:40 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.910.90.5-0.1-0.6-1-1.3-1.3-1.1-0.700.71.11.210.60.1-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.30.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.