Tuesday, September26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ingleside on the Bay, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 7:21PM Tuesday September 26, 2017 3:10 PM CDT (20:10 UTC) Moonrise 12:01PMMoonset 10:58PM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ230 Bays And Waterways From Baffin Bay To Port Aransas- 1039 Am Cdt Tue Sep 26 2017
Rest of today..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Scattered Thunderstorms late in the morning. Scattered showers. Isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..East wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..East wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East wind 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..East wind 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
GMZ200 1039 Am Cdt Tue Sep 26 2017
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters.. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms will continue to be possible today through Thursday across the coastal waters. Isolated showers and storms will be possible Friday through the end of the week. Onshore flow will generally be moderate through midweek. A cold front is expected to move into the waters on Friday, bringing a moderate northeast wind in the wake of the front.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ingleside on the Bay, TX
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location: 27.79, -97.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Corpus Christi, TX
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Fxus64 kcrp 261822
afdcrp
area forecast discussion
national weather service corpus christi tx
122 pm cdt Tue sep 26 2017

Discussion
Update for 18z aviation cycle.

Aviation
Very complex and lower confidence forecast. All depends on the
areal coverage of the convection. We do have greater confidence at
kvct klrd, in between is a bit tougher.

Today...VFR with pockets of MVFR cigs. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms expected around kvct klrd dropping conditions into
the ifr range at times. Mostly isolated to possibly scattered
activity at kali kcrp as the seabreeze continues to move through.

Winds out of the east-southeast around 10 knots. Low to medium
confidence on overall convective activity.

Tonight... MostlyVFR. Expect to see a marked decrease in coverage
of showers and storms outside of klrd by later this evening. Best
moisture and lift remain around klrd tonight so they will
continue to see direct impacts with lower conditions likely.

Elsewhere, some stratus may develop after midnight around
kali kvct but higher confidence in impacts at kvct so we continue
the MVFR forecast. Winds out of the east-southeast around 10
knots. Medium confidence overall.

Wednesday... MostlyVFR. Activity will once again perk up increase
by late morning across the region. Still expecting much of the
rain and storm activity to be around kvct klrd, with a bit less
coverage at kali kcrp. Winds out of the east around 10 knots.

Medium confidence overall.

Previous discussion issued 1105 am cdt Tue sep 26 2017
discussion...

updated the forecast to increase pops mainly out west. Also, went
with higher rainfall chances during the afternoon hours across the
coastal plains to better depict boundary interactions. Overall
kept high temperatures as on previous package, but made only some
minor changes to lower hourly temperatures on areas that we are
expecting will receive the higher rainfall impact. No major
changes to the rest of the grids at this time.

Previous discussion... Issued 637 am cdt Tue sep 26 2017
discussion... See aviation section for 12z tafs.

Aviation... Widespread showers continue to move slowly northward
across the brush country. MVFR vsbys will continue for the next
2-3 hours in the lrd when precipitation area diminishes. Could
see a lull in precipitation from late morning until early
afternoon. But convection will is expected to redevelop by mid
afternoon. The low level convergence will increase over the area
with approach of the sea breeze boundary and expect increase in
coverage of convection again lasting into the evening hours.

Storms will be capable of producing heavy rain with ifr lifr vsby
in the strong downpours. Scattered to possibly numerous showers
and embedded t-storms will continue over the brush country through
the night with MVFR ceilings prevalent with ifr vsbys possible
with tsra.

Low level convergence continues to increase along the coastal
areas. But only isolated streamer type showers have been able to
develop over the coastal bend. Expect with a little bit of heating
that coverage of activity will increase later this morning. This
activity will remain over the coastal plains through the rest of
the morning hours into early this afternoon. Expect MVFR ceilings
will become prevailing this morning while scattered convection
could bring ifr vsbys. Thunderstorms should move inland by late
afternoon withVFR conditions expected from late afternoon through
the evening for the coastal sites. Expect MVFR ceilings to form
over the coastal areas by 08z Wednesday with scattered showers
forming in coastal convergence zone.

Previous discussion... Issued 425 am cdt Tue sep 26 2017
short term (today through Wednesday)...

pretty impressive rainfall amounts occurred over portions of webb
and la salle counties with conservative estimates from 6 to 8
inches. Widespread showers continue over the brush country from
the diminishing convective complex but there are thunderstorms
redeveloping to the south of laredo. Msas shows the low level
convergence zone forming along the coast. GOES 16 image of
precipitable water shows high moisture axis back into the coastal
areas. Expect scattered showers or storms to form in this
convergence axis toward daybreak and continue through the morning.

But the deep moisture axis will remain over the brush country
along the rio grande with pwat values near 2.5 inches. There could
be a brief lull in precipitation over the region later this
morning as the left over rain area drifts north and diminishes.

But should see air mass recover and again become moderately
unstable for this afternoon. The low level convergence will be
maximized over the area when the sea breeze boundary moves into
region late afternoon and evening. Models depict low level
southeast flow will increase again to around 35 knots tonight. The
western brush country will remain in proximity to moderately
diffluent upper level flow tonight. The wrf-arw seem to have a
better handle on the south and eastward extent of heavy rain
overnight. Wrf-arw shows strong convection will form again over
the brush country late this afternoon into the night time. The
threat for locally heavy rainfall will continue over areas that
already received heavy rains. Issued flash flood watch for webb
and la salle counties through Wednesday. Rain amounts of 3 to 5
inches are expected with maximum amounts up to 8 inches possible.

Hard to determine timing of vorticity maxima in the south-
southwest flow aloft between the upper ridge axis extending into
the western gulf of mexico and the upper low moving into the
desert southwest. Convectively induced vort MAX from this
morning's convection expected to move northward with more
streaming in from mexico into the western counties through
Wednesday. Extended the flash flood watch into Wednesday for this
reason with scattered showers and storms expected again with
potential for heavy rain over the western counties.

Long term (Wednesday night through Monday)...

the upper level closed low will be near the four corners region at
the start of the period, with deep pacific moisture being draw into
the region. Deep moisture will combine with energy from several
disturbances rounding the upper low to produce high chances for
convection during the mid week. Precipitable water values will
remain well above normal (2.2-2.4 inches across western zones)
during the mid week. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall with
numerous showers and thunderstorms is forecast to continue across
the rio grande plains and portions of the brush country Wednesday
evening into Wednesday night, with more scattered convection across
the eastern portions of the region. This upper level low will
gradually lift to the north northeast Thursday into the late week,
allowing a weak cold front to slip south through the region Friday.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue across the
region Thursday and Friday, with only a slight chance for lingering
showers behind the front on Saturday.

High temperatures will not fall much in the wake of this front,
going from highs in the upper 80s low 90s to mid 80s near 90
degrees. However, drier air filtering into the region will make for
much less humid conditions late in the week. Temperatures overnight
will drop more, with lows going from the low to mid 70s to the low
to mid 60s across much of the region.

Late in the period differences arise, with the GFS bringing another
disturbance south, while the ECMWF maintains zonal flow aloft. For
the time will handle this with a broad brushed slight chance of
convection until more consistency occurs between models.

Preliminary point temps pops
Corpus christi 77 89 76 91 74 40 40 20 30 20
victoria 75 89 73 90 72 30 30 20 20 20
laredo 77 90 74 91 73 70 60 50 40 40
alice 75 91 74 92 72 40 40 30 40 30
rockport 78 88 77 90 76 20 30 20 20 20
cotulla 75 89 74 90 72 80 70 50 40 40
kingsville 76 90 75 92 73 40 40 20 40 20
navy corpus 79 88 78 90 78 30 30 20 20 20

Crp watches warnings advisories
Tx... Flash flood watch through Wednesday evening for the following
zones: la salle... Webb.

Gm... None.

Gh 77... Aviation


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TAQT2 - 8775296 - Texas State Aquarium, TX 6 mi41 min 85°F 85°F1008.3 hPa
NUET2 11 mi41 min SE 19 G 21 84°F1008.8 hPa
PACT2 - 8775792 - Packery Channel, TX 11 mi41 min ESE 16 G 18 84°F 83°F1009.3 hPa
RTAT2 - 8775237 - Port Aransas, TX 12 mi41 min ESE 14 G 19 85°F 84°F1009.5 hPa
ANPT2 14 mi41 min ESE 13 G 16 84°F 85°F1008.6 hPa
MQTT2 - 8775870 - Malaquite Beach (Corpus Christi), TX 15 mi41 min ESE 16 G 18 84°F 84°F1008.6 hPa
IRDT2 21 mi41 min ESE 13 G 15 86°F 85°F1009.4 hPa
CPNT2 26 mi41 min E 9.9 G 12 83°F 84°F
BABT2 - 8776604 - Baffin Bay; Point of Rocks, TX 35 mi41 min ESE 14 G 19 84°F 85°F1008.7 hPa
AWRT2 40 mi41 min Calm G 1 77°F 84°F1009.9 hPa

Wind History for Port Ingleside, Corpus Christi Bay, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi Naval Air Station/Truax Field, TX7 mi15 minESE 1310.00 miLight Rain89°F79°F72%1008.6 hPa
Mc Campbell, TX9 mi4.9 hrsno data10.00 miPartly Cloudy88°F78°F75%1010.8 hPa
Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi International Airport, TX11 mi20 minSE 1710.00 miMostly Cloudy91°F73°F57%1008.3 hPa
Robstown, Nueces County Airport, TX21 mi36 minESE 19 G 2310.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy0°F0°F%1008.5 hPa
Rockport Aransas County Airport, TX24 mi18 minSE 128.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F77°F77%1009.3 hPa

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Last 24hrSE14SE16SE16SE16SE16SE16SE13SE15E17SE14SE15SE13SE13SE8SE10SE9SE8SE10SE11SE11SE11SE15SE14SE18
1 day agoSE14SE13SE14SE15E13E12SE13SE14SE13SE14SE13SE10SE11SE10SE9SE11SE8SE8SE6SE14
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2 days agoE14E14SE15E12E14E15E16SE14SE14SE8--SE10SE9SE9SE9SE8SE8SE5SE14--SE12SE11SE13SE13

Tide / Current Tables for Port Ingleside, Corpus Christi Bay, Texas
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Port Ingleside
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Tue -- 05:41 AM CDT     0.82 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:19 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:00 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:45 PM CDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:20 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:58 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.70.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.70.70.60.50.50.40.40.30.30.40.40.50.50.6

Tide / Current Tables for Aransas Pass, Texas Current
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Aransas Pass
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Tue -- 05:04 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:18 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:33 PM CDT     -1.05 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 12:59 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:09 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:19 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:22 PM CDT     1.15 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:57 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.70.60.50.30-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.7-0.9-1-1-0.9-0.7-0.5-0.3-00.30.711.11.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Corpus Christi, TX (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Corpus Christi, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.