Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sebastian, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 6:19PM Thursday February 22, 2018 5:49 PM EST (22:49 UTC) Moonrise 11:20AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 325 Pm Est Thu Feb 22 2018
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Friday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 5 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 325 Pm Est Thu Feb 22 2018
Synopsis..A strong high pressure ridge centered over the western atlantic will generate a gentle to moderate onshore breeze over the local waters into the weekend. This persistent flow will produce a moderate easterly swell that will enhance the local sea heights. Small craft operators will need to exercise caution, especially in the gulf stream.
Gulf stream hazards..East to southeast winds around 15 knots with seas up to 6 feet. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Wednesday february 21st. 39 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 29 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 16 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sebastian, FL
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location: 27.81, -80.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 221935
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
235 pm est Thu feb 22 2018

Discussion
Tonight-Friday... Mid upr lvl wx pattern acrs the CONUS will remain
amplified as troffing in the west is reinforced by a 100kt
meridional jet digging down the west coast, while strong SW flow
over the SRN plains lwr ms valley generates a warm air advection
pattern that maintain the integrity of a strong anticyclone over the
gomex SE conus. The h30-h20 jet pattern has a strong lifting
orientation east of the continental divide and will not be able to
uproot the atlc anticyclone, ensuring it will remain the dominant wx
feature for the fl peninsula.

No sig change to the basic wx pattern as deep lyr E SE flow will
prevail acrs central fl. Rap40 analysis of the upstream conditions
shows an overall dry stable airmass with h100-h70 mean rh btwn 50-
60pct, dewpoint depressions btwn 25-30c thru the h85-h50 lyr, and
pwat values largely arnd 1.00". Low lvl moisture is a bit more
plentiful with h100-h85 mean rh btwn 70-80pct, which could allow a
few low-topped shras to form in the wake eddys downwind of the nrn
bahamas. However, the ridging pattern has left the airmass nearly
devoid of any sig synoptic scale lift with h85-h30 omega vorticity
field pretty much flat and an h30-h20 divergence field that is
either neutral or weakly convergent.

Any shras that might dvlp in the current airmass will not survive
for long once they push into the cooler shelf waters. Those that do
survive their trek onshore have little if any impact with QPF blo
0.10"... Pops will be AOB 20pct. Warm, moist air advection with the
onshore flow regime will keep temps well abv avg, min temps in the
m u60s interior and along i-4... U60s l70s space and treasure coasts.

Friday MAX temps in the m80s interior, l80s along the coast.

Fri night-sun... Strong atlantic high continues SE flow into this
weekend, maintaining above normal temps, with highs remaining in the
mid 80s over the interior and low 80s along the coast. The ridge
axis will gradually shift southward Sat into sun, veering winds to
the south as a frontal boundary approaches fl late sun. Rainfall
coverage remains near 20% through the period, as isolated showers
approach the peninsula from the southeast coast, with highest
chances mainly over marine and coastal areas.

Mon-thu... Trough moving through the midwest and eastward toward the
mid-atlantic coast will flatten the mid level ridge across the area,
as it retreats westward. This will allow a weak front to finally
shift southward across the area Tuesday. However, this boundary will
bring little change in temperatures across the area, as winds
quickly veer onshore behind the front, keeping warmer than normal
temperatures in place. Latest model guidance not showing much hope
for a significant increase in precipitation with this front or with
elevated onshore flow behind the boundary. However, isolated showers
will continue to be possible each day through Wednesday. Dry and
warm weather is expected Thu with southwest flow ahead of the next
front which will move through the area next Thu night or Friday.

Aviation Thru 23 18z.

Sfc winds: thru 23 00z... Coastal sites E SE 9-13kts with g17-
21kts... Interior sites E SE 7-11kts. Btwn 23 00z-23 03z... Coastal
sites bcmg E NE 7-11kts... Interior sites bcmg E NE 4-7kts. Btwn
23 03z-23 06z... Bcmg E NE 3-6kts all sites. Btwn 23 12z-23 15z...

bcmg E SE 8-12kts all sites.

Vsbys wx cigs: thru 23 01z... LCL cigs btwn fl035-050. Btwn 23 07z-
23 14z... N of kism-ktix areas MVFR LCL ifr vsbys in br... Coastal
sites slgt chc MVFR shras. Aft 23 14z... Slgt chc MVFR shras all
sites.

Marine
Tonight-Friday... Marginal to poor boating conds as the high pres
ridge anchored over the W atlc maintains a gentle to moderate E se
breeze acrs the region. Little change anticipated from current
conds, sfc obs measuring sustained winds arnd 10kts north of cape
canaveral, 10-15kts from the CAPE southward, in line with a slightly
tighter pgrad over south fl... Data buoys running 3-5ft, largely in a
long pd easterly swell btwn 8-9sec. Seas up to 6ft in the gulf
stream. The easterly wind component will place portions of the
treasure coast waters in the shadow of the NRN bahamas, resulting in
lcly rough conditions from ft. Pierce southward. Small craft
operators should exercise caution when operating in the gulf stream.

Fri night-Sunday... Ridge axis initially north of the area Friday
gradually shifts southward and across the area during the weekend
before moving south of central fl into Sunday night. Winds respond
by veering to the southeast Saturday and southerly Sunday to around
10 to 15 knots. Swells will keep seas up to 6 feet offshore through
much of the weekend, but will fall to 3-5 feet into early next week.

Mon-tue... South to southwest winds early Monday will transition to
the NE E behind a frontal boundary into Tuesday. Scec conditions are
expected to develop behind the front Monday night and on Tuesday
with seas building to around 6 ft offshore.

Climate After several more record warm lows yesterday, a few
more are possible today and Friday for coastal sites. Here are
the record warm minimum temps and the year set:
february 22 february 23
daytona beach 69-2008 69-2013
orlando intl 69-1945 69-2013
sanford 68-2008 70-2013
melbourne 69-2003 69-2008
vero beach 73-1961 73-1961
ft. Pierce 73-1961 71-1979
also, with temperatures forecast to remain well above normal through
the remainder of the month, a record warm february looks on track
for orlando, melbourne, sanford and vero beach, with daytona beach
and fort pierce likely coming in second warmest.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 68 80 64 80 10 20 10 20
mco 65 86 64 84 10 20 10 20
mlb 71 82 68 81 20 20 20 20
vrb 71 82 68 81 20 20 20 20
lee 64 87 64 84 0 20 10 20
sfb 64 86 64 83 10 20 10 20
orl 65 86 64 84 10 20 10 20
fpr 70 82 67 81 20 20 20 20

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term aviation... Bragaw
mid term... .Smith
long term... Volkmer


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SIPF1 4 mi50 min ESE 9.9 75°F 76°F1028 hPa (-1.0)
41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) 22 mi50 min 75°F4 ft
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 41 mi57 min 73°F3 ft
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 42 mi50 min E 6 G 9.9 76°F 74°F1029.1 hPa (-0.8)
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 50 mi40 min E 12 G 16 75°F 1027.9 hPa67°F
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 86 mi50 min E 11 G 12 76°F 77°F1027.6 hPa (-0.9)70°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Vero Beach, Vero Beach Municipal Airport, FL11 mi57 minE 1010.00 miFair77°F66°F69%1027.1 hPa
Melbourne International Airport, FL22 mi57 minE 1210.00 miA Few Clouds79°F66°F65%1027.2 hPa
Fort Pierce, St. Lucie County International Airport, FL22 mi57 minE 910.00 miA Few Clouds78°F66°F69%1027.1 hPa

Wind History from VRB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE11E11E10
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E10E7E11SE12E8E8E9E8E6E8E11E11E11E13E12
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1 day agoE7E10E11SE14SE12E13SE12SE12SE11SE8SE9E8E9E9E7E10SE15E12E12
G19
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2 days agoE9E9E9E12E10E9E12E11SE11E12SE13SE12SE11E10SE11E13SE13
G21
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E11E13E11

Tide / Current Tables for Sebastian, Indian River, Florida
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Sebastian
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:30 AM EST     0.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:14 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:19 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:38 PM EST     0.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:17 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:44 PM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.20.30.30.30.20.20.10.100.10.10.20.30.30.30.30.20.10-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Vero Beach (ocean), Florida
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Vero Beach (ocean)
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:03 AM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:19 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:08 PM EST     3.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:17 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:32 PM EST     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.232.41.70.90.40.20.30.81.52.32.83.12.92.41.70.90.2-0.2-0.20.10.81.62.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.