Thursday, April19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sebastian, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:50PM Thursday April 19, 2018 5:29 AM EDT (09:29 UTC) Moonrise 8:50AMMoonset 10:45PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 400 Am Edt Thu Apr 19 2018
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 14 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Friday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Saturday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Chance of showers.
Sunday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Showers likely.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 400 Am Edt Thu Apr 19 2018
Synopsis..A strong atlantic over central florida will generate a gentle to moderate south to southwest breeze across the local atlantic today. A weak cold front will push through central florida overnight, forcing winds to veer to the north and northwest by daybreak Friday. Deteriorating conditions on Friday as high pressure behind the front builds off the mid atlantic coast with winds becoming a moderate to fresh breeze northeast breeze. Winds will become east to southeast over the weekend with continued poor to hazardous boating conditions.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Wednesday april 18th. 39 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 29 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 22 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 13 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 8 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sebastian, FL
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location: 27.81, -80.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 190746
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
345 am edt Thu apr 19 2018

Discussion
Today-tonight...

latest rap40 analysis shows the high pres ridge that passed over fl
on Wed has merged with the atlc ridge, forming a strong axis
extending from the NRN bahamas into the ERN gomex. LCL wind
profilers show a brisk 20-30kt srly flow acrs the peninsula... S se
at kmfl, veering to S SW at kxmr ktbw kjax. Airmass remains bone dry
with pwat values around 0.50", none of which is concentrated in any
one distinguishable lyr... Rap40 analysis shows avg dewpoint
depressions thru the h100-h85 lyr arnd 15c, and arnd 25c thru h85-
h50. Corresponding mean rh values show equally low moisture... Aob
40pct thru the h100-h70 lyr.

The ridge will remain the primary wx feature today... Maintaining a
dry stable airmass that will produce mostly sunny skies, while S sw
winds and near full Sun generate warm aftn temps in the m u80s. Wrn
flank of the atlc ridge will gradually drift into south fl as a
short wave trof pushing into the deep south works its way toward the
ern seaboard. The short wave will drag a weak cold front into the fl
panhandle by sunset, then thru central fl overnight. Moisture
pooling within the trof is quite low... MAX h100-h70 rh values aob
70pct with little in the way of meaningful cloud cover. Prefrontal
airmass even drier with h100-h70 rh values AOB 50pct... FROPA will be
dry. Light but steady W SW flow thru late evng, bcmg N NW overnight.

However, the nrly flow will not be strong enough nor its duration
long enough to generate a strong cold dry air advection... Min temps
near the fcst dewpoints... L m60s.

Fri-fri night... Tail end of frontal boundary drifting slowly over
peninsula with loss of much southward push by fri. Ne-ene winds will
increase as the day wears on with high pressure area to the north
bridging the frontal boundary and wind surge working down the coast
by Fri evening. Cloudiness and moisture convergence will also
increase with the onshore flow becoming persistent. Added a low
mentionable pop for northern coastal sections starting Fri afternoon
then low pops across all coastal sections with slightly higher
values shifting south Fri night. Increase in cloudiness and onshore
flow will help hold MAX temps in the mid 70s immediate volusia co
coast... With upper 70s lower 80s remainder of the coast, with low-
mid 80s inland. Overnight lows Fri night in low mid 60s... Upper 60s
to around 70 immediate space and treasure coasts.

Sat-mon... Wx pattern will be unsettled with increasing rain chances
through the weekend and into at least the early part of next week.

Latest model runs in reasonable agreement that the low level flow
will veer from easterly on Sat toward the se-s Sunday into Monday
ahead of low pressure area over the deep south. This would favor a
persistent increase in moisture, with rain chances gradually
increasing from 20-40 percent Sat to 50-60 percent with a few
embedded thunderstorms for Sun Mon with rising moisture and cooler
mid level temps. Clouds and rain chances expected to hold maxes in
the upper 70s to lower 80s... Except mid 70s coastal volusia co.

Tue-wed... GFS still trending faster with low pressure area to the
north pushing a trailing a front through with drier conditions
through the local area while the ECMWF hangs on to moisture longer
into the mid week. For now, will keep chance pops in all areas for
tues then indicate low pops across southern sections only on wed.

Highs in the upper 70s lower 80s near the coast and low mid 80s
inland. Lows generally in the mid 60s.

Aviation Thru 20 12z.

Sfc winds: thru 19 12z... S SW 4-7kts. Btwn 19 12z-19 15z... Bcmg W sw
8-12kts. Btwn 19 17z-19 20z... Coastal sites S of ktix bcmg S SE 8-
12kts. Btwn 20 00z-20 03z... Bcmg S SW 4-7kts. Btwn 20 03z-20 06z
bcmg W NW 3-6kts. Btwn 20 06z-20 09z... N of kism-ktix bcmg N NW 4-
7kts. Btwn 20 09z-20 12z... S of kism-ktix bcmg N NW 4-7kts.

Vsbys wx cigs:VFR all sites.

Marine
Today-tonight... Atlc hi pres extending from the NRN bahamas into the
ern gomex will generate a gentle to moderate S SW breeze thru
midday... Bcmg S SE near the coast in the aftn south of cape
canaveral as the east coast sea breeze dvlps. Weak cold front will
push thru central fl overnight, forcing winds to veering to a
northerly component areawide by daybreak. Winds bcmg a moderate to
fresh N NE breeze from CAPE canaveral northward, gentle to moderate
n NW breeze south of the cape. Seas 2-3ft nearshore and 3-4ft
offshore, largely due to a nerly swell. Dominant pds btwn 8-9sec,
decreasing to 4-6sec off the volusia co. Coast in the predawn hrs
as winds freshen out of the N ne.

Fri-mon... Boating conditions deteriorating Friday with an e-ene wind
surge near 20 knots working down the waters, with seas building up
to 7-8 feet offshore by early sat. Boating conditions will remain
poor to hazardous the remainder of the weekend into early next week
with strong high pressure keeping the gradient tight. Winds will be
15-20 kt from the east Sat and veer toward se-s Sunday into mon.

Chances for showers develop over the waters by late Fri into sat,
with showers and a few storms for Sunday and Monday.

Fire wx
Dry air will remain over central fl today, though S SE sfc flow near
the coast will gradually modify the low sfc dewpoints. Min rh values
over the interior will drop to 30-35pct for 3-5hrs this aftn. Min rh
over the coastal regions btwn 40-50pct.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 86 65 73 64 0 0 20 10
mco 88 65 83 64 0 0 10 10
mlb 85 65 79 69 0 0 10 20
vrb 85 65 82 69 0 0 10 20
lee 86 63 79 62 0 0 10 10
sfb 88 65 79 63 0 0 10 20
orl 88 66 81 65 0 0 10 10
fpr 84 64 82 69 0 0 10 20

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term aviation... Bragaw
long term impact wx... Glitto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SIPF1 4 mi44 min SW 8 65°F 66°F1019 hPa
41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) 22 mi29 min 75°F2 ft
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 41 mi36 min 74°F2 ft
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 42 mi41 min SSW 9.9 G 12 67°F 75°F1019.3 hPa
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 50 mi39 min SW 16 G 19 72°F 74°F3 ft1018 hPa64°F
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 86 mi41 min S 8.9 G 11 74°F 78°F1019.3 hPa64°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Vero Beach, Vero Beach Municipal Airport, FL11 mi36 minSW 510.00 miFair63°F60°F90%1018.1 hPa
Melbourne International Airport, FL22 mi36 minSW 510.00 miFair64°F60°F87%1017.9 hPa
Fort Pierce, St. Lucie County International Airport, FL22 mi36 minWSW 310.00 miFair60°F59°F96%1018.1 hPa

Wind History from VRB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7W3CalmW5W4SW3W3E7E9E9E11SE10E10SE11SE7SE5S7S6S6S6S5SW4SW6SW5
1 day agoW5W6NW6NW9NW8NW8N9N5N9N8NE9NE10NE6NE5E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3SW3W3Calm
2 days agoW3SW3W6W11W18
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NW14W13W7W7W8W6W7W6W6W6W7W6

Tide / Current Tables for Sebastian, Indian River, Florida
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Sebastian
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Thu -- 01:16 AM EDT     0.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:58 AM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:26 PM EDT     0.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:17 PM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.40.40.30.30.20.10-000.10.20.30.40.40.30.20.1-0-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.10.1

Tide / Current Tables for Vero Beach (ocean), Florida
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Vero Beach (ocean)
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:47 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:47 AM EDT     3.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:04 PM EDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:29 PM EDT     3.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.62.81.70.80.200.41.12.133.63.83.42.61.60.6-0.1-0.4-0.20.51.52.53.43.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.