Tuesday, February20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Aransas, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 6:25PM Tuesday February 20, 2018 9:49 AM CST (15:49 UTC) Moonrise 10:06AMMoonset 11:01PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ230 Bays And Waterways From Baffin Bay To Port Aransas- 431 Am Cst Tue Feb 20 2018
.small craft should exercise caution...
Today..Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bays choppy. A chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots shifting east after midnight. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..East wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southeast wind around 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South wind 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..East wind 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ200 431 Am Cst Tue Feb 20 2018
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters.. Moderate to strong southeast flow will persist today and tonight as the area remains between an area of high pressures over the gulf of mexico and lower pressures across the plains. A slight chance for a shower will exist close to shore today. A cold front will approach the area from the north on Wednesday with wind speeds weakening at that time. Better chances of showers or even a Thunderstorm will exist on Wednesday. The cold front will stall near the coast Wednesday night. This front will contribute to scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday night through and Thursday. Lingering moisture and upper level disturbances will contribute to isolated to scattered showers Friday and Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Aransas, TX
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location: 27.84, -97.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Corpus Christi, TX
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Fxus64 kcrp 201212 aab
afdcrp
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service corpus christi tx
612 am cst Tue feb 20 2018

Discussion Have issued a wind advisory for today for the
eastern half third of S tx. 12z kcrp RAOB wind profile came in
with approx 54 kts at 4.4kft and 44kt at 2kft. These stronger
winds should quickly begin mixing to the surface by mid morning.

Momentum transfer output in bufkit indicates another round of
strong wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph possible for several hours
today along a corridor from corpus christi to victoria. The
strong LLJ is prog to weaken faster this afternoon and shift
farther east (as compared to yesterday). Thus, for now, I have the
wind adv expiring early mid afternoon. Have opted to leave out
calhoun and aransas counties as nearby cooler ssts should result
in a more stable airmass, and thus less mixing and overall weaker
wind speeds.

Previous discussion issued 523 am cst Tue feb 20 2018
discussion... Update for 12z aviation.

Aviation... Ifr CIGS at kcrp kvct xpctd to persist thru mid mrng
with gradual improvement through MVFR thereafter... Possibly into
vfr for the aftn (more likely forVFR to occur at kcrp).

Klrd kali likely to remain MVFR thru the mrng with good chances of
vfr in the aftn. Strong srly LLJ (12z kcrp RAOB indicates 44kt at
2kft and 54kt at approx 4.4kft) will result in windy conditions
this mrng but LLJ is prog to weaken this aftn with strongest winds
then being confined closer to tx coast. Few shra possible pretty
much anytime drng the day with iso convection not out of the
question. Much better chances of convection xpctd tonight from
klrd to kcrp with kcrp kali more likely to have shra. Low cigs
likely to dvlp across most of the area tonight.

Previous discussion... Issued 421 am cst Tue feb 20 2018
short term (today through Wednesday)...

longwave trough across the W CONUS continues to slowly shift
eastward with an increase in associated impacts expected through
the short term period.

Today... Moisture depth is prog to continue to increase with pwats
increasing to around 1.5" along the rio grande to nearly 1.9"
across the coastal plains. Combination of greater moisture depth
and increase in large scale synoptic lift should result in
slightly better chances of precip today. Elevated convection is
ongoing (as of writing) across the far NW CWA as a weak vort max
moves through with elevated (generally light) precip bands
possible across S tx pretty much anytime during the day. Height
falls are prog to slowly occur this afternoon and the CWA is prog
to be better positioned under the rrq of a strengthening h25 jet
streak. This may allow for a slightly better chance of broken
banded convection developing at that time... Some of which may
become surface based. The GFS and cmc along with a few cams
(especially the ttu wrf) hint at this possibility while the ecmwf
and NAM keep the area rather dry. Breezy conditions will also
prevail today with a period of rather windy conditions possible
during the morning as a 40 to 45 kt southerly LLJ at 925mb mixes
down again. However, the LLJ is prog to weaken during the day and
shift farther east. If the LLJ fails to shift east or fails to
weaken as fast as expected... Then too much speed shear will exist
in the lower levels for surface based precip to occur in the
afternoon. MAX temps will again be unseasonably warm for this
time of year, but thicker cloud cover should keep temps a few
degrees below Monday's values.

Tonight... Dpva is prog to increase across the brush country as a
stronger mid level vort MAX advects NE out of NE mx. This should
initiate convective development near the rio grande and across
the brush country in the evening. How much development occurs
remains highly uncertain with various model suites ranging from
widespread convection (such as the arw, nssl wrf, and nmm) to only
isolated convection (ttu wrf). If convection is able to develop,
areal coverage may blossom as the LLJ redevelops westward from the
coast in the evening. Given the expected nocturnal increase in
waa and the aforementioned synoptic features... I've opted to go
with upper end chance pops for the brush country for tonight with
convection possibly shifting towards the victoria area overnight
as the vort MAX shifts ne. Farther east across the coastal
plains... Showers associated with moisture pooling under the eml
may develop by late in the night with isolated elevated convection
possible. Min temps reflect some expected rain cooled air across
the brush country with warmest min temps located across the
coastal plains.

Wednesday... Primarily WAA showers may persist through mid morning
with coverage becoming more isolated by late morning. In the
afternoon, a cold front is prog to approach the area from the
north, but uncertainty exists regarding how far south the front is
able to make it. Most guidance indicates the front should make it
through much of the CWA by late day with temps possibly falling
dramatically across the northern CWA in the afternoon. Surface
based convective chances will increase in the afternoon as the
front interacts with a significantly more unstable airmass
(sbcape 2000 to 3000 j kg and MLCAPE 1500 to 2500 j kg) with
convection then becoming more elevated as it shifts north over the
boundary cold front. An isolated strong storm will be possible
both along and behind the front with hail being the primary strong
storm threat. Forecast MAX temps have bust potential (depending
on whether or not the front makes it into the area).

Long term... (Wednesday night through Monday)...

the deterministic ECMWF gfs predict an upper low with embedded
disturbances to meander over the wrn CONUS Thursday Friday, then
become progressive and move across the SRN plains Saturday. A
frontal boundary is expected to become quasi-stationary near the
coast Wednesday night. The combination of this boundary and copious
moisture (pwat values well above normal per the GFS deterministic)
should result in at least scattered convection Wednesday night
Thursday. Wpc depicts only a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
over NRN portions of the CWA for the 12z Wednesday-12z Thursday
period. Concur, given that the GFS deterministic soundings do not
depict a saturated 0-4km layer and deep layer vertical shear
expected to be significant. The front should retreat as a warm front
and north of the CWA by Thursday night Friday. The GFS predicts a
cold front to move across the CWA Saturday night in response to the
foregoing second disturbance. Yet, the ECMWF predicts the
disturbance to be weaker and hence no frontal passage across the
cwa. Nevertheless, the combination of significant moisture and a
series of upper disturbances warrants a mention of precipitation
during the Saturday through Monday period.

Preliminary point temps pops
Corpus christi 80 69 79 60 73 30 30 30 70 40
victoria 78 66 75 54 71 40 50 70 70 50
laredo 86 66 83 57 70 20 50 20 40 40
alice 83 69 82 59 74 20 40 30 60 40
rockport 77 68 76 59 69 30 30 40 70 40
cotulla 84 66 75 52 67 20 50 40 40 50
kingsville 84 69 82 61 75 20 30 30 70 40
navy corpus 79 68 78 61 71 30 30 30 70 40

Crp watches warnings advisories
Tx... Wind advisory until 2 pm cst this afternoon for the following
zones: bee... Goliad... Kleberg... Nueces... Refugio... San
patricio... Victoria.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 10 am cst this morning for the
following zones: waters from baffin bay to port aransas
from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from port aransas to matagorda
ship channel from 20 to 60 nm.

Update... Hart 79


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RTAT2 - 8775237 - Port Aransas, TX 0 mi50 min ESE 12 G 17 69°F 60°F1013.6 hPa (+0.8)
ANPT2 2 mi50 min ESE 17 G 19 67°F 61°F1012.5 hPa (+0.8)
PACT2 - 8775792 - Packery Channel, TX 17 mi50 min SE 16 G 22 70°F 69°F1013.6 hPa (+1.1)
TAQT2 - 8775296 - Texas State Aquarium, TX 17 mi50 min 70°F 68°F1012.2 hPa (+0.7)
MQTT2 - 8775870 - Malaquite Beach (Corpus Christi), TX 20 mi50 min ESE 17 G 19 83°F 64°F1013 hPa (+1.2)
NUET2 22 mi50 min SE 18 G 26 72°F1012.9 hPa (+0.9)
IRDT2 28 mi50 min ESE 15 G 19 69°F 71°F1013.7 hPa (+1.2)
AWRT2 30 mi50 min SE 14 G 18 71°F 71°F1014.2 hPa (+1.2)
BABT2 - 8776604 - Baffin Bay; Point of Rocks, TX 42 mi50 min SE 19 G 22 68°F 69°F1013.1 hPa (+1.1)
SDRT2 - 8773037 - Seadrift, TX 44 mi50 min E 16 G 23 72°F 70°F1014.4 hPa (+1.3)
KMZG 47 mi35 min SW 9.9 G 17 73°F 72°F

Wind History for Port Aransas, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mc Campbell, TX9 mi55 minno data10.00 miFair73°F68°F87%1013.2 hPa
Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi Naval Air Station/Truax Field, TX16 mi54 minSE 20 G 278.00 miLight Rain and Breezy72°F69°F91%1013 hPa
Rockport Aransas County Airport, TX17 mi57 minSE 154.00 miFog/Mist71°F68°F90%1013.9 hPa
Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi International Airport, TX23 mi59 minSSE 24 G 3210.00 miOvercast and Windy73°F70°F90%1012.7 hPa

Wind History from RAS (wind in knots)
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NE9NE9NE8N10
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1 day agoSE12SE11SE10SE12SE7--SE5SE6E7E5SE4E4CalmN5N6N5NE7N8E9E10E10
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2 days agoSE11SE10SE10
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SE10SE8SE8SE6SE6SE4SE3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E5E4SE8E8E9E11
G14
SE13

Tide / Current Tables for Port Aransas, Texas
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Port Aransas
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:55 AM CST     0.52 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:01 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:05 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:10 AM CST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:42 PM CST     0.56 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:22 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 11:01 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.20.30.30.40.50.50.50.40.30.30.30.30.30.40.40.50.50.60.50.40.30.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Aransas Pass, Texas Current
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Aransas Pass
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:00 AM CST     -0.18 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:15 AM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:57 AM CST     0.31 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:01 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:45 AM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:05 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:36 AM CST     -0.13 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 01:27 PM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:22 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:47 PM CST     0.25 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:45 PM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:00 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.2-0.1-0.1-000.10.30.30.20.1-0-0.1-0.1-000.10.10.20.20.20.2-0.1-0.3-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Corpus Christi, TX (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Corpus Christi, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.