Monday, May22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bardmoor, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 8:19PM Monday May 22, 2017 5:33 PM EDT (21:33 UTC) Moonrise 3:20AMMoonset 3:59PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 245 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Tonight..Southwest winds around 10 knots then becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday..South winds around 15 knots becoming southwest. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds around 15 knots then becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots then becoming southwest around 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters choppy. Widespread Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds around 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters choppy. Thunderstorms.
Thursday..West winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday..North winds around 5 knots then becoming northwest around 5 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Friday night..Northwest winds around 5 knots then becoming north around 5 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Saturday..Northeast winds around 5 knots then becoming west in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 245 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Synopsis.. High pressure ridge axis will slowly move south early this week to the florida straits...with winds veering to the southwest. Winds increase to near cautionary levels tonight into Tuesday...and then may approach advisory levels ahead of an approaching cold front Wednesday into Wednesday night. This front will pass south of the region during Thursday and be followed by high pressure for the end of the week. Numerous to widespread showers and Thunderstorms...some on the strong side are anticipated across the coastal waters Tuesday night into Thursday. Boaters are urged to check the latest forecasts with respect to these storms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bardmoor, FL
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location: 27.87, -82.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 221829
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
229 pm edt Mon may 22 2017

Synopsis
18z water vapor and h4 rap analysis shows an amplified
upper level pattern in place over the conus... Anchored by a
large closed upper low spinning over the upper midwest.

Several impulses are rounding is larger circulation. One
weak shortwave passed through our region last night and was
the forcing mechanism for the showers in the pre-dawn hours.

This energy has no passed by... And the shower activity has
dissipated. Another stronger impulse can be seen dropping
southward into the high plains. This shortwave is destined
to have a much greater impact on our weather during the mid-
week period as it amplifies southward and moves across the
northern gulf of mexico. We will talk more about this
further down this discussion.

At the surface... Atlantic high pressure ridges westward
across the florida peninsula... But is starting to shift
southward toward the florida straits. Low level synoptic
winds which have been out of the east/se the past several
days are shifting to the south as this ridge axis
moves... And eventually will veer to the southwest by
Tuesday.

Short term (rest of today through Tuesday)
Without the easterly flow to hold the sea- breeze
back... Expect this boundary to move steadily inland with
time... Making it well past the i-75 corridor by late
afternoon. Due to this change from previous days... Higher
rain chances for diurnal storms will be well inland as well.

Close to the coast... Storms are unlikely later today. The
main sea-breeze collision looks to take place across the
central portion of the peninsula
(polk/highlands/desoto/hardee/sumter counties). Storms are
likely to continue in eastern polk/highlands counties a few
hours past sunset before finally quieting down for the
night.

Tuesday is going to be the transition day between sea-breeze
dominated weather today... And widespread synoptic/frontal
rain Wednesday into Thursday. Synoptic winds will be out of
the southwest by Tuesday... Keeping any sea-breeze
unorganized and pushed well inland and out of our area
before much potential for convection occurs. Off to our
northwest... The pre-mentioned trough will be amplifying
across the central part of the country... With upper flow
becoming cyclonic in nature all the way to the southeast
coast. With little in the way of sea-breeze storms... Most of
the area will be dry (in terms of rain) Tuesday... But the
flow off the gulf will keep all of us quite humid... Under
considerable high level cirrus to dim the Sun (especially
along and north of the i-4 corridor). Although most of us
are going to see a dry day... The potential for some
synoptic forced showers to begin impacting our far northern
areas (mainly north of brooksville) off the gulf is
increasing. Gfs/ecmwf both show a highly diffluent flow
developing aloft over the fl big bend area by Tuesday
afternoon, and these solutions suggest this forcing will be
enough to support at least sct activity. The NAM is a bit
slower with this forcing to arrive, but this model often has
a slow bias toward frontal precipitation, and will lean
toward the faster solutions. All guidance agrees on more
widespread activity becoming likely over our nature coast
zones during Tuesday night.

Mid/long term (Tuesday night - Sunday)
A significant trough amplification for late may takes place into the
northern gulf late Tuesday night through Wednesday. Increasing large
scale ascent ahead of this trough... Supplemented by diffluent flow
aloft is quite favorable to support widespread heavy rainfall across
the florida peninsula. Associated surface front will be slow to
advance across the region, and this sets up the potential for
several rounds of much needed rainfall to move across the region. At
the present time, we are likely looking at a widespread 2-4 inch
rain event across the area with isolated higher amounts likely. In
addition to the heavy rainfall, increasing wind fields/deep layer
shear (35-45kts) ahead of the trough is plenty to support more
organized thunderstorm/updraft potential. The storm prediction
center has outlooked our entire region in a slight risk of severe
weather (including isolated tornadoes) Wednesday/Wednesday
night... And feel this is appropriate given the nwp ensemble
solutions for this event. The most organized severe weather
potential looks to be Wednesday evening through early Thursday
morning with greatest severe parameters coincide with each other.

Still a little but more time to narrow down specifics in regard to
timing and the severe potential but nevertheless Wednesday will
certainly be a wet day across west-central and SW florida so plan
accordingly.

Precip will linger across the area to start the day on Thursday
before the front very slowly moves south of our area by the late
afternoon. Gradually clearing skies, from north to south, can be
expected with slightly drier air infiltrating the area behind the
front especially from the bay area north. This will be short-lived
however given the time of year and we will begin to see moisture
increase on Friday through the weekend. A return to near seasonal
temps can be expected by Friday into the weekend with low end
shower/isolated storm chances returning mainly across our southern
and interior zones

Aviation
Vfr conditions will prevail early this afternoon. Sea-
breeze will quickly move inland past all terminals this
afternoon... Shifting winds to the southwest. Best potential
for storms later this afternoon will be well inland. Storms
may form in the vicinity of klal, but then likely will move
further east by the evening hours. GeneralVFR conditions
continue overnight into Tuesday morning with a light south
to southeast flow.

Marine
High pressure ridge axis will slowly move south early this
week to the florida straits... With winds veering to the
southwest. Winds increase to near cautionary levels tonight
into Tuesday... And then may approach advisory levels ahead
of an approaching cold front Wednesday into Wednesday night.

This front will pass south of the region during Thursday and
be followed by high pressure for the end of the week.

Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms... Some on
the strong side are anticipated across the coastal waters
Tuesday night into Thursday. Boaters are urged to check the
latest forecasts with respect to these storms.

Fire weather
No significant fire weather concerns are anticipated through
Tuesday as relative humidity values generally remain above
35 percent. A widespread wetting rainfall is expected to
accompany a frontal passage beginning Tuesday night over the
northern peninsula... And continuing for all areas Wednesday
and Wednesday night. Drier air will arrive behind this front
for the end of the week.

Fog potential... No significant fog concerns are anticipated
through the next several days.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Tpa 75 87 77 83 / 0 10 40 70
fmy 73 90 75 89 / 10 10 10 50
gif 72 90 74 85 / 40 20 20 50
srq 75 86 77 84 / 10 10 30 70
bkv 71 87 71 83 / 0 20 50 70
spg 76 86 76 84 / 10 10 40 70

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Synopsis/short term/aviation/marine/fire wx... Mroczka
mid term/long term/decision support... Mckaughan


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 8 mi46 min SW 14 G 15 80°F 84°F1015.6 hPa
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 10 mi46 min WSW 13 G 17 83°F 84°F1015.1 hPa
CLBF1 10 mi100 min WSW 11 G 14 82°F 1014.7 hPa
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 11 mi46 min WSW 11 G 14 84°F 84°F1015.3 hPa
MTBF1 17 mi46 min W 13 G 16 80°F 1015.8 hPa72°F
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 18 mi52 min SW 8 G 13
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 18 mi46 min SW 12 G 15
MCYF1 18 mi46 min 88°F
PMAF1 19 mi46 min 81°F 88°F1014.7 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 20 mi100 min WSW 13 G 16 82°F 1016.6 hPa
42098 21 mi34 min 82°F2 ft
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 39 mi100 min W 11 G 15 83°F 1016 hPa
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 49 mi64 min SSW 9.7 G 12 82°F

Wind History for Clearwater Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL5 mi41 minWSW 1210.00 miFair87°F66°F51%1015.1 hPa
St. Petersburg Whitted Airport, FL10 mi41 minW 13 G 1810.00 miFair82°F72°F72%1014.7 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL13 mi36 minSW 1110.00 miFair88°F70°F57%1015.5 hPa
Tampa, Tampa International Airport, FL14 mi41 minWSW 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy89°F70°F53%1014.9 hPa
Tampa, Peter O Knight Airport, FL17 mi59 minWSW 610.00 miFair91°F73°F56%1014.9 hPa
Tampa, Vandenberg Airport, FL24 mi39 minSW 610.00 miFair91°F68°F46%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from PIE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W10NW7CalmN4NE5NE3NE3E3CalmSE7S9SW10S7S7S5S5S8S5SE7S8SW11
G18
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1 day agoW10SW9SW10CalmCalmS8S7S4CalmSE3CalmE5SE4SE7SE45SE8--E7E10NE6W7W9SW7
2 days agoW10W4NE3NE6CalmCalmE8E7E4E6SE8SE9SE11SE10E9SE14
G21
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G19
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G15
NE5NE6W12

Tide / Current Tables for Madeira Beach Causeway, Boca Ciega Bay, Florida
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Madeira Beach Causeway
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:00 AM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:34 AM EDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:06 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:30 PM EDT     1.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.310.70.60.711.41.82.12.32.32.11.71.30.80.50.40.40.711.41.71.8

Tide / Current Tables for Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa), Florida Current
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Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa)
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:20 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:23 AM EDT     -0.83 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:30 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:25 AM EDT     1.08 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:34 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:22 PM EDT     -1.24 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:40 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:22 PM EDT     1.09 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.2-0.3-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.30.30.81.110.80.3-0.2-0.7-1.1-1.2-1.2-0.9-0.40.20.81.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.