Saturday, March17, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Tampa, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 7:41PM Saturday March 17, 2018 7:53 PM EDT (23:53 UTC) Moonrise 6:52AMMoonset 6:58PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 300 Pm Edt Sat Mar 17 2018
Tonight..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Patchy sea fog after midnight.
Sunday..West winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. Patchy sea fog in the morning.
Sunday night..Southwest winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming southwest around 15 knots late in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southwest winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots then becoming northwest around 20 knots toward morning. Bay and inland waters choppy. Showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Wednesday..Northwest winds around 20 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Wednesday night..North winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..North winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 300 Pm Edt Sat Mar 17 2018
Synopsis..High pressure is sitting over the area with perfect boating conditions today and tomorrow. Rain free conditions can be expected with light winds less than 10 knots and seas 1 foot or less. A storm system will approach the region late Monday into Tuesday with building southwesterly winds and seas along with good rain chances. A cold front is expected to move through the region Tuesday night with strong northwesterly winds and seas creating hazardous marine conditions through mid week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tampa, FL
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location: 27.93, -82.45     debug

Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 171840
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
240 pm edt Sat mar 17 2018

Short term (today-Sunday)
Quiet weather expect for our weekend thanks in part to zonal
flow and a weak high pressure over the area. Temperatures
will be on a warming trend with highs back in the low 80's
for the weekend and lows around 60 degrees Sunday morning.

The warmer morning will mean a more muggy start to Sunday.

That coupled with light winds will bring some fog in
overnight. The typically low laying areas in the inland part
of the state could see that visibility drop below one mile
right before sunrise on Sunday.

Long term (Sunday night - Saturday)
Models for the most part are in decent agreement with synoptic scale
features during the long term period so a blend will be used. At the
start of the period weak upper level ridging will be shifting east
into the atlantic as a short wave trough advances east into the
southern and central plains. At the surface, a deepening surface low
associated with the short wave trough will move slowly east into the
lower and mid mississippi valley through Monday, and then toward the
mid atlantic coast Monday night. An increasing southwesterly wind
flow ahead of this storm system will advect increasing moisture
across the northern florida peninsula, which will support increasing
chances for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the
nature coast during Sunday night, and along and north of the i-4
corridor into the nature coast during Monday and Monday night.

During Tuesday a stronger shortwave trough will move east across the
northern gulf coast. As this feature moves eastward deepening
surface low pressure will move east across georgia during the day
with this low then moving offshore the southeast coast Tuesday
night. As the low moves eastward a trailing cold front will move
southeast through the eastern gulf waters and florida. Ample
moisture and instability will support increasing chances (pops 70 to
80 percent range) for showers and storms along and ahead of the
front area-wide on Tuesday. With forecast sounding data showing
increasing wind fields (50 knots at 850mb), increasing wind shear,
steep mid level lapse rates in excess of 7 c km, MUCAPE values
exceeding 2000 j kg, and 500mb temperatures in the -12 to -13c range
some severe storms will be possible along and ahead of the front
on Tuesday with damaging winds and large hail the primary hazards.

The severe threat along with rain chances will end from
north to south Tuesday night as the short wave trough exits
to the east into the atlantic and the cold front moves to
the south of the forecast area. An increasing northwest to
northerly wind flow in the wake of the front will usher in
cooler and drier air Wednesday through Friday as surface
high pressure builds in from the west. The increasing winds
in the wake of the front will help to quickly builds seas
over the adjacent gulf waters with a period of very
hazardous marine conditions developing Tuesday night through
early Thursday.

Temperatures will run above normal through Tuesday with lows in the
50s and 60s, with daytime highs in the mid to upper 70s along the
coast, and lower to mid 80s inland. Temperatures will fall back to
below normal Wednesday through Friday in the wake of the front with
lows falling back into the 40s, with daytime highs in the upper 60s
to lower 70s. Temperatures will moderate again on Saturday as winds
veer into the east as the surface high moves offshore the mid
atlantic coast.

Vrf conditions expect throughout the day and into our
overnight hours. Fog is expected to form in the early
morning hours tomorrow. Most sites will see a brief period
of MVFR conditions right around sunrise while lal and pgd
will see a brief period of ifr conditions at the same time.

Weak high pressure over the area this weekend will help to
keeps winds light and out of the W to sw. A strong cold
front will be heading our way on Monday and Tuesday which
will cause our winds and seas to slowly increase out of the
sw. Strong high pressure will build in behind the front
causing hazardous boating conditions for Wednesday as winds
start to shift to the nw. Winds and waves will slowly be
coming down on Thursday and Friday.

Fire weather
Today will be the last day of low humidity and high ercs
with a red flag warning continuing for polk county. As
moisture starts to increase Sunday and into our next work
week fire weather should not be an issue.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 62 78 64 80 0 0 10 20
fmy 61 81 64 83 0 0 10 10
gif 57 83 61 85 0 0 10 20
srq 61 75 64 78 0 0 10 10
bkv 55 79 61 81 0 0 10 30
spg 62 78 65 78 0 0 10 20

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... Red flag warning until 8 pm edt this evening for polk.

Gulf waters... None.

Short term aviation marine fire weather... 27 shiveley
mid term long term decision support... 57 mcmichael

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 1 mi66 min W 1.9 G 6
MCYF1 2 mi54 min 69°F
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 7 mi54 min NNW 4.1 G 6 69°F 66°F1016.5 hPa (-0.5)
CLBF1 19 mi120 min W 7 G 7 69°F 1015.9 hPa
MTBF1 20 mi54 min NW 6 G 7 66°F 1016.7 hPa (-0.7)57°F
PMAF1 21 mi54 min 66°F 70°F1016.4 hPa (-0.7)
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 21 mi54 min WSW 1.9 G 2.9 68°F 66°F1016.7 hPa (-0.7)
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 24 mi120 min W 6 G 7 67°F 1017.7 hPa
42098 35 mi54 min 69°F1 ft

Wind History for Seabulk, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tampa, Peter O Knight Airport, FL1 mi59 minWNW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F44°F38%1016.6 hPa
Tampa, Tampa International Airport, FL5 mi61 minWNW 810.00 miFair72°F44°F37%1016.5 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL6 mi58 minNW 410.00 miFair70°F55°F60%1016.9 hPa
Tampa, Vandenberg Airport, FL8 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair73°F39°F29%1016.6 hPa
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL13 mi61 minWNW 710.00 miFair70°F50°F49%1016.5 hPa
Albert Whitted Airport, FL15 mi61 minNW 410.00 miFair70°F52°F53%1015.9 hPa
Plant City, Plant City Municipal Airport, FL16 mi79 minSW 610.00 miFair77°F41°F28%1016.9 hPa
Lakeland Regional, FL23 mi69 minWSW 610.00 miClear75°F39°F27%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from TPF (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4NE3NE5NE3CalmCalmCalmSW4SW8S8S7S9W5W5W4
1 day agoNW3NW3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmE3CalmNE3E3NE4E4S3S4W3NW7W5W4W3NW3
2 days agoNW5NW3NW3NW4NW3N3N3CalmCalmCalmNE6NE5NE5NE6NE10NE7CalmS3S7S6W5W6W5NW6

Tide / Current Tables for Hillsborough Bay, Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay, Florida
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Hillsborough Bay
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Sat -- 02:33 AM EDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:14 AM EDT     New Moon
Sat -- 09:38 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:25 PM EDT     1.92 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:39 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa), Florida Current
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Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa)
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Sat -- 12:58 AM EDT     1.10 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:59 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:33 AM EDT     -1.21 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:14 AM EDT     New Moon
Sat -- 10:54 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:38 PM EDT     1.14 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:52 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:03 PM EDT     -1.05 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:59 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.