Tuesday, October24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Melbourne, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 6:45PM Tuesday October 24, 2017 7:16 AM EDT (11:16 UTC) Moonrise 10:35AMMoonset 9:28PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 435 Am Edt Tue Oct 24 2017
Today..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest late in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Friday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 435 Am Edt Tue Oct 24 2017
Synopsis..A cold front just north of central florida will push southward through the local atlantic waters today and tonight. Behind the front beginning early Wednesday, a surge of northwest winds and building seas will produce poor to hazardous boating conditions through Wednesday night. Winds and seas will gradually subside beginning Thursday.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Sunday october 22nd. 44 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 34 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 30 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 20 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 13 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Melbourne, FL
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location: 28.11, -80.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 240829
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
425 am edt Tue oct 24 2017

Discussion
Current... Surface cold front lies near a ksgj-kocf-kcgc line as of
07z 300 am, and denoted by a band of light rain showers redeveloping
near the florida nature coast and extending ne-ward. Initial area of
showers and a few storms along the pre-frontal trough had mostly
weakened as it moved through the northern cwa, however redevelopment
began to occur near a kxmr to lake-kissimmee line and continues to
the south. The trough currently lies from near lake okeechobee to
the coast at sipf1 and will continue to move eastward across the
treasure coast and into the atlantic before sunrise. Current temps
are in the l-m70s, as the warm nocturnal coastal readings of last
week have eased due to winds veering to S ssw as well as rainfall.

Today-tonight... The aforementioned surface cold front will reach the
northernmost CWA a little before sunrise, sag slowly SE across the
central CWA through sunset, then across the SE CWA by late tonight.

Showers and a few storms will form along and ahead of the boundary
throughout the day, with the highest chances across the central and
south (60) trending back to AOB 20 percent NW of i-4. As clouds and
precip get shunted southward, northern areas should see some late
afternoon breaks of sunshine, while skies stay cloudy to the south.

Maxes will range from the l80s north to near 85 south. Showers will
linger across the central and especially over the southern CWA this
evening into tonight. Winds gradually shift from sw-w to NW as the
front continues to press southward. Post-frontal CAA will be the
strongest over the northern half CWA with mins falling into the u50s
and l60s, with m-u60s holding on across the SE coast.

Wednesday-Wednesday night... A fairly strong trough over the north
gulf early in the period will continue to move eastward and across
central fl late in the day evening while on a gradual weakening
trend, finally pushing east of the fl peninsula overnight. At the
surface a cold front should lie across south-central fl early in the
period and continue to track eastward away from the area during the
day. A tight pressure gradient will exist over the area as weak high
pressure builds into the region behind the strong front. Near breezy
nw winds will be gusty at times as a result. These NW winds will
fall off to light in the evening. A tight moisture gradient will
exist north-south across ecfl early on as drier cooler air filter
down the peninsula behind the recent boundary. Have kept inherited
schc-chc mention of showers over land areas southward from near kmlb
and slowly back off precip chances southward through the day. The
best dynamics, however, will remain north of the area with thunder
chances slim.

Max temps in the l-m70s. Mins continue to trend cooler for overnight
wed Thu morning falling back into m-u40s over much of the interior,
perhaps l50s near larger metropolitan areas. Also expect l50s along
the east coast and slightly warmer across the barrier islands.

Thursday-Monday... Aloft, upper troughing continues to push east away
from the peninsula as flat-level ridging moves across the state on
thu becoming a bit more amplified on Fri and pushing east as
troughing deepens once again over the central CONUS and lifts slowly
east-northeast toward the eastern seaboard into early next week with
our mid-level winds becoming swrly. At the surface weak high
pressure builds across the region on thu, then off of the atlantic
seaboard late Fri into sat.

Medium range models develop a weak low just off of the west central
fl coast by late Sat lifting it across northeast fl Sat overnight,
then up the eastern seaboard on Sun all ahead of an upper trough
surface cold front that is forecast to sweep through the area on
sun. Further south is another approach of low pressure as models
lift this feature from just south of cuba into the fl straits by sun
afternoon, then northeast across the bahamas late Sun sun night,
continuing on a northeast track away from the fl peninsula on mon.

Model consistency and timing of surface upper features will play a
key role going forward with exact track strength of these two
systems.

After cooler than normal conditions again on thu, temps should
rebound closer to climo Thu night-fri with the onset of return
onshore flow, then highs near normal on Sat with lows above normal
sat Sun mornings. Highs will take a dive back south of normal for
much of the area on Sun as another fairly strong cold front plows
through the area. For now have kept land areas dry thru fri, then
introduce a small threat for showers Fri night, increasing to chc-
nmrs mention on Sat sat night with gradually decreasing chances on
sun into early next week.

Aviation Goes-16 rgb nighttime microphysics imagery proving to be
extremely valuable early this morning. Over the past 2 hours, it has
shown the development of widespread MVFR stratus from klee-komn
northward. Given the southward development trend, will be making
amds to show ovc MVFR conditions at klee, reaching kdab by 09z, and
spreading south from ksfb to kism-mco between 10z to 13z. Otherwise
showers will produce occasional MVFR CIGS and MVFR to ifr vsbys from
vrb-sua through 12-13z. Diurnal showers and a few storms progged to
redevelop across the mlb-sua corridor from around 16z through 24z.

Marine
Today-tonight... Ssw-sw flow will shift to w-nw through tonight as
the cold front gradually sags across the maor over the next h24.

Seas will remain 3ft near shore and 4-5ft well offshore. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms along ahead of the front.

Wednesday-Saturday... Weak high pressure will build in from the west
behind a strong cold front on Wed into early fri, then low pressure
is forecast to develop along the west-central fl coast by late sat
continuing to lift northeast Sat night through northeast fl. An
increase in moisture will push north ahead of this system with above
normal shower chances developing Sat sat night areawide decreasing
precip on Sun as another cold front sweeps through the area.

Sustained NW winds around 20 kts on Wed behind the first front will
remain elevated away from the coast Wed night and will gradually
decrease on Thu as directional component veers to the N nne. Wind
speeds from Thu into the early part of the weekend will average
around 15 kts over the open atlc with occasional stints near 15-18
kts well offshore gulf stream. Wind direction continues to veer to
east Thu overnight into fri, then ese-se-s Fri overnight into sat
night.

Scattered showers with perhaps isolated thunderstorms will decrease
through the day on Wed (highest chances southward) with drier air
over the coastal waters Wed night thru fri. Moisture returns slowly
again Fri overnight with highest rain chances Sat sat night.

Lightning, gusty winds, and torrential downpours appear to be the
main storm threats for sat.

Initial seas of 3-5 ft early on Wed will build to around 6-7 ft
wed Wed night offshore gulf stream, then subside again thu-fri down
to 3-4 ft areawide. With a bump up in winds Fri night thru Sat seas
will build to 4-5 ft areawide by Sat night. Strength track of sat's
low could dictate possible higher winds seas for Sat sat night.

Fire weather
The first significant cold front of the season will move through
central fl during through tonight. This boundary will be preceded by
showers and storms, with some locally heavy rainfall minor, nuisance
flooding possible especially south of i-4. Much drier cooler air
will filter down the peninsula late tonight into Wednesday. Lowest
rh values are forecast to fall into the 30s over much of the
interior and volusia n. Brevard coasts on wed, perhaps into the
upper 20s north of i-4. Min low rh values will again, on Thursday,
fall into the 30s northwest interior, perhaps upper 20s, with a
climb back upward Fri into this weekend as deep moisture again
remains poised to move back into the area ahead of another low
pressure system.

Climate
Listed below are the dates showing the last time local temperatures
were below 50, 60 and 70 degrees this year...

50 degrees 60 degrees 70 degrees
dab 04-09-2017 05-27-2017 06-03-2017
fpr 04-08-2017 05-08-2017 05-28-2017
vrb 04-08-2017 05-08-2017 06-16-2017
mlb 04-08-2017 05-08-2017 05-28-2017
mco 05-07-2017 05-27-2017 06-28-2017
sfb 04-09-2017 05-07-2017 05-28-2017
here are the last dates that the high temperatures failed to reach
80 degrees...

dab 05-13-2017
fpr 07-31-2017
vrb 10-05-2017
mlb 04-08-2017
mco 09-10-2017
sfb 10-05-2017

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 81 60 72 49 20 10 10 0
mco 82 59 74 51 30 10 0 0
mlb 84 65 76 49 60 40 20 0
vrb 83 66 76 51 60 60 30 10
lee 82 57 73 50 10 10 0 0
sfb 82 59 73 50 20 10 10 0
orl 82 59 74 54 20 10 0 0
fpr 84 67 77 47 60 60 30 10

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term aviation... Cristaldi
long term radar... Sedlock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SIPF1 19 mi32 min SW 8 74°F 75°F1014 hPa
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 21 mi56 min 80°F2 ft
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 21 mi47 min SW 2.9 G 6 75°F 80°F1014.6 hPa
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 36 mi37 min SW 12 G 16 79°F 82°F1013.1 hPa74°F
41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) 44 mi47 min 82°F3 ft
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 97 mi53 min N 8.9 G 12

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melbourne International Airport, FL1 mi24 minSSW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F73°F94%1013 hPa
Cocoa - Patrick Air Force Base, FL8 mi79 minSSW 810.00 miFair75°F74°F100%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from MLB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE11SE14
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SE10S13S7S7S8S3S5CalmW10W11SW7SW6SW3
1 day agoSE8SE8SE11SE10SE13SE13
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SE13SE9SE9SE9SE10SE9SE8SE10SE11SE10SE9SE11SE10SE8
2 days agoE11E13E13E12E13E12E13E14E12E11E11E7E10E7E11E12
G18
E12E12E12E12E11E12E8E10

Tide / Current Tables for Canova Beach, Florida
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Canova Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:12 AM EDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:26 AM EDT     4.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:41 PM EDT     1.37 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:33 PM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.83.22.41.71.10.911.52.33.13.74.14.13.73.12.41.81.41.41.72.32.93.43.8

Tide / Current Tables for Patrick Air Force Base, Florida
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Patrick Air Force Base
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:00 AM EDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:17 AM EDT     4.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:32 PM EDT     1.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:20 PM EDT     3.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.83.12.31.610.811.62.43.344.34.23.83.12.31.71.31.31.72.333.63.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.