Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Melbourne, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:57PM Thursday January 24, 2019 6:09 AM EST (11:09 UTC) Moonrise 10:02PMMoonset 10:00AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 426 Am Est Thu Jan 24 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm est this afternoon...
Today..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Rough on the intracoastal waters. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Friday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Friday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Slight chance of rain.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of rain.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 426 Am Est Thu Jan 24 2019
Synopsis..A strong cold front and preceding squall line will approach east central florida this morning and cross the area through the day. A fresh to strong south to southwest breeze will occur ahead of this system, with frequent gusts to gale force expected offshore through the morning hours. Winds will become westerly as the front exits our area and gradually decrease in the late afternoon. However, poor to hazardous boating conditions will remain through Monday as moderate to fresh northerly winds occur behind the front. Winds and seas will slowly subside this weekend, but remain choppy in persistent north to northeast flow.
Gulf stream hazards..South to southwest winds increasing up to 25 to 30 knots, with frequent gusts to gale force through the morning. Seas building up to 8 to 10 feet. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday january 21st. 43 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 31 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 27 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 19 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Melbourne, FL
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location: 28.11, -80.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 240921
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
420 am est Thu jan 24 2019

Discussion
Marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms across east
central florida this morning...

Hazardous sea conditions through this afternoon...

today-tonight... A cold front extending from the NE u.S. Towards
central fl panhandle early this morning will continue to push to the
southeast today. At the same time, an area of high pressure will be
pushed east and away from the peninsula, keeping a tight pressure
gradient over east central fl today. Active weather (showers and
thunderstorms) will reach the northern counties of our forecast area
(ie lake and volusia) at around 5 am, although a few showers and
storms could develop ahead of the main line. At the mid and upper
levels, a strong jet will lift north at the morning progresses,
remaining to our north. However, south winds of +50 kts were
observed in the last 3 hours at around 2500-5000 ft in the 915 mhz
profiler winds at the cape. These storms will be capable of
producing gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph or higher and heavy rain.

By early afternoon, the front will be over the CAPE and with showers
and perhaps a few thunderstorms reaching the treasure coast. As the
line clears east central fl, weather conditions will improve from
north to south, with temperatures ranging from near 70 for
orange northern brevard north, while the rest of the forecast area
will be able to rise to the mid to upper 70s. A moderate risk of rip
currents is expected today for the east central fl beaches.

By evening night, lingering clouds and perhaps a few showers are
possible for the treasure coast while the rest of east central fl,
will be clearing with northwest winds decreasing. Cold advection
will then be possible, dropping temps to the low to mid 40s north of
i-4, with mid to upper 40s for the space and treasure coast.

Friday-Sunday... After clearing the SE cwa, the cold front will stall
near the florida straits late Friday as its orientation becomes
parallel to the mid level flow. Additional shortwave troughs in both
the northern and southern streams will drop SE into the longer wave
trough over the central-eastern CONUS through this weekend. The two
systems will remain unphased, as the northern trough the lower ms
valley gulf coast deep south, while the southern stream feature
moves across old mexico and the southern gomex. The lack of phasing
will result in multiple frontal waves sliding eastward along the
stalled boundary and remaining south of ecfl rather than a stronger,
more coherent storm system directly impacting the area. This in turn
will make for a cool, damp stretch of weather. Overrunning high mid
clouds will become increasingly widespread this weekend, steadily
lowering, and producing increasing coverage of stratiform rainfall,
especially for the southern cwa. Overall QPF doesn't look terribly
high for this event, and the rainfall is needed given the ongoing
lack of significant rainfall for most areas. MAX temps will stay
well below normal (u50s far north, 60s to the south), with mins in
the 40s and l50s in a cool, damp and occasionally breezy n-ne flow.

Monday-Thursday... The southern stream trough will cross florida
early Monday, and move well offshore Monday night, bringing and end
to the high rain chances by sunset Monday. Long wave troughing will
remain anchored over the central and eastern conus, however, with
multiple weak impulses coming in behind this feature through much of
next week. Consequently, the weak post frontal "bubble" high Monday
night-Tuesday will only provide brief drying decrease in clouds.

Clouds will start to spread back into the area starting late Tuesday
afternoon ahead of the next fast moving cold front, which will move
into central florida late Tuesday night-Wednesday. This front will
be moisture starved as return s-sw flow ahead of is forecast to be
pretty much non-existent. Early indications are this front may get
hung up over south or even central florida through late week as a
breezy showery onshore flow develops. Cooler than normal temps will
continue with only Tuesday looking line and chance for much in the
way of limited Sun and temps to reach the l70s. While there will be
more clouds than Sun much of next week, rain chances from Tuesday
onward look to be fairly low.

Aviation Low CIGS and gusty winds will continue this
morning ahead of a cold front. Shra tsra will move into the area,
starting with klee and continue to the southeast this morning. Gusts
of 30-40 kts, low visibilities and even brief ifr CIGS will
accompany this activity. Conditions should improve after 24 15z from
the NW and clear kvrb-ksua by mid afternoon.

Marine
Today-tonight... Fresh to strong south to southwest breezes this
morning will turn from the west in the afternoon over the east
central fl waters. Due to the offshore flow, seas near the coast
will remain low but by 18 nm east of the coast, seas will be 7 feet
or higher and near 9 ft along the gulf stream. Winds beyond the 20
nm will be near gale with frequent gale force winds gusts. And a
gale warning is in effect for the offshore waters through the
afternoon. As the front moves away, pressure gradient will relax and
winds are expected to drop quickly in the afternoon and early
evening. However, seas will take a bit longer to drop below advisory
criteria until late evening. Boaters should remain in port today as
hazardous seas could get even worse near thunderstorms moving to the
northeast from the coast.

Friday-Monday... Boating conditions will remain less than optimal
through early next week. Post frontal northerly surge will result in
winds seas briefly flirting with 20kt 7ft over the gulf stream early
Friday, with gradual slackening thereafter. A steady, moderate NE to
north breeze will prevail this weekend with seas mainly in the 4-5ft
range. Seas will rebuild Monday as n-ne flow freshens north of the
next frontal wave to our south.

Fire weather Rh values will drop to 30-35 percent over much of
the area in post-frontal northerly flow of 10-12kt Friday. Fire wx
sensitivity should be mitigated somewhat by today's rainfall. Beyond
that, no critical wind rh concerns are expected.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 73 43 57 41 90 0 0 0
mco 72 45 60 42 90 0 0 0
mlb 76 46 60 43 90 10 10 10
vrb 77 48 61 43 80 10 10 10
lee 70 41 59 40 90 0 0 0
sfb 72 44 59 41 90 0 0 0
orl 72 44 59 43 90 0 0 0
fpr 78 49 62 47 80 20 10 10

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for flagler
beach to volusia-brevard county line 0-20 nm-sebastian
inlet to jupiter inlet 0-20 nm-volusia-brevard county line
to sebastian inlet 0-20 nm.

Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 7 pm est this
evening for flagler beach to volusia-brevard county line 20-
60 nm-sebastian inlet to jupiter inlet 20-60 nm-volusia-
brevard county line to sebastian inlet 20-60 nm.

Gale warning until 10 am est this morning for flagler beach to
volusia-brevard county line 20-60 nm-sebastian inlet to
jupiter inlet 20-60 nm-volusia-brevard county line to
sebastian inlet 20-60 nm.

Short term aviation... Negron
long term impact wx... Cristaldi


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SIPF1 19 mi54 min S 8.9 70°F 70°F1015 hPa
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 21 mi39 min 66°F6 ft
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 21 mi39 min S 12 G 16 68°F 66°F1014.2 hPa
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 36 mi39 min S 23 G 29 73°F 1013.4 hPa70°F
41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) 44 mi39 min 72°F7 ft
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 97 mi39 min SSW 17 G 24

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melbourne International Airport, FL1 mi16 minS 14 G 198.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F66°F84%1012.8 hPa
Cocoa - Patrick Air Force Base, FL8 mi73 minS 1410.00 miFair71°F70°F97%1013.6 hPa

Wind History from MLB (wind in knots)
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2 days agoNW9NW9NW8N9N12N12N17N18
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N16N13N13NW6NW5W6W7W7W8W7W3E11E12E9

Tide / Current Tables for Canova Beach, Florida
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Canova Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:00 AM EST     -0.86 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:00 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:09 AM EST     3.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:31 PM EST     -0.64 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:55 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:01 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:33 PM EST     3.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.51.30.2-0.6-0.9-0.60.31.52.73.643.83.120.9-0-0.6-0.6-012.13.13.73.7

Tide / Current Tables for Patrick Air Force Base, Florida
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Patrick Air Force Base
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:48 AM EST     -0.82 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:58 AM EST     4.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:00 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:19 PM EST     -0.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:55 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:22 PM EST     3.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.10.1-0.6-0.8-0.40.61.82.93.843.831.90.8-0.1-0.6-0.50.21.22.33.33.83.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.