Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lamar, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 8:16PM Sunday May 20, 2018 7:56 PM CDT (00:56 UTC) Moonrise 10:48AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ235 Bays And Waterways From Port Aransas To Port O'connor- 406 Pm Cdt Sun May 20 2018
Tonight..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
Tuesday..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
Wednesday..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth.
Wednesday night..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth.
Thursday..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth.
Thursday night..Southeast wind around 10 knots shifting south after midnight. Bays smooth.
Friday..Southwest wind around 5 knots shifting southeast in the afternoon. Bays smooth.
Friday night..Southeast wind around 10 knots shifting south after midnight. Bays smooth.
GMZ200 406 Pm Cdt Sun May 20 2018
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters.. A weak to moderate onshore flow will continue tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and Thunderstorms may develop tonight and continue on Monday, becoming more isolated on Tuesday. A light to moderate onshore flow is expected for Monday with a light onshore flow expected Tuesday through Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lamar, TX
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location: 28.12, -97.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Corpus Christi, TX
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Fxus64 kcrp 202359 aab
afdcrp
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service corpus christi tx
659 pm cdt Sun may 20 2018

Discussion
Convective line stretches from whitsett southward to george west
with a broken line of storms extending southwestward to near
laredo. Some of these storms may be strong to possibly severe with
strong to damaging winds being the primary threat. This threat
should continue into the evening for a few more hours. Main reason
for the update was to align pops closer to radar trends and
expected movement of the storms during the evening hours.

Additional updates will likely be needed.

Previous discussion issued 630 pm cdt Sun may 20 2018
discussion...

there will be an update coming out shortly on the evening package
based on the current radar radar trends and expected convective
progress this evening and overnight. Also adjusting some other
parameters as-needed to fall more in line with the observations.

Update will be out shortly.

See .Aviation discussion for 00z tafs.

Aviation...

main issue is the convection and this set of terminals is based in
part on radar and surface forcing trends (laps convergence),
along with meso-model "trends" (meso models cannot be relied on
for exact location of convection just that convection will likely
be around some areas). Given that, am expecting convection to move
more to the south during the evening, especially klrd and kali
terminals, but also possibly into the kvct terminal. Lots of
surface moisture divergence near kcrp terminal at this time
(thus against rain), and that is the tricky terminal but given
that the models have been consistent on possibly having something
proximate to the terminal this evening did also include
convection here (weaker however). Best shot for convection is
between 02z and 07z at kali, 03z and 08z at kcrp, 01z to 07z at
klrd (possibly longer), and 01z to 05z at kvct. Strongest storms
(gusts greater than 30 knots likely at all but kcrp (but not that
kcrp cannot get higher winds... Cannot base on worst case
situation). After the convection, should have MVFR CIGS develop
all terminals, with some showers possibly in the vicinity of kcrp
overnight. CIGS improve toVFR before by 17z with potential for
some convection during the afternoon again. For now, put in vcts
at kali and klrd during the afternoon with much uncertainty
elsewhere. Less winds and more easterly in the forecast for
tonight and Monday outside of convection.

Previous discussion... Issued 401 pm cdt Sun may 20 2018
short term (tonight through Monday night)...

main forecast concern is thunderstorm potential this afternoon and
evening. Convection associated with outflow boundary to the north
will slowly approach the northwest and northern parts of the region
over the next several hours. Hrrr runs over the last few hours
support this, and actually bring this area of showers and storms
near the coast later this evening. MLCAPE values remain around
2000 j kj at this time with little to no capping across south
texas. Strong storms will be possible as this activity moves into
the area late this afternoon and early evening with primary
threats of gusty winds and small hail. An isolated severe storm or
two is not completely out of the question either. Some moderate
to heavy rains may also occur with pw values around 1.7 to 1.8
inches.

This area of showers and storms should slowly moves to the
south and east tonight. Confidence is not that great of any
redevelopment, but sufficient moisture lingering around will
warrant low pops through 12z. Overnight lows will generally be in
the lower to middle 70s inland with upper 70s along the coast.

Any remnant boundaries coupled with an approaching upper level
disturbance may result in isolated to scattered storms on Monday.

Will continue with 30 to 40 pops, with best chances along the rio
grande and western brush country. Highs tomorrow will be in the
upper 80s to low 90s.

Long term (Tuesday through Sunday)...

ridging pattern will develop overhead on Tuesday. Sufficient moisture
along the coast may allow for isolated showers or storms to develop
and stream onshore throughout the day on Tuesday. Drier air will
then push into the region Wednesday, with below normal moisture and
dry conditions persisting into late in the week as mid upper level
ridging remains set overhead. A warming trend will continue through
the week, with highs back near 100 degrees across the brush country
and in the mid to upper 90s to the east by the end of the week. Over
the weekend the upper level ridge will shift further to the west as
a trough axis develops to the east of the region. Slightly higher
moisture creeping into the coastal areas and less suppressive
conditions aloft may allow for some isolated coastal convection to
pop up again by the weekend. However, most locations will remain
dry at the time.

Preliminary point temps pops
Corpus christi 74 88 73 90 73 40 30 10 20 10
victoria 72 90 70 91 70 80 30 10 20 10
laredo 75 92 74 94 74 40 40 10 10 10
alice 73 91 71 93 71 40 30 10 10 10
rockport 77 86 76 88 76 40 30 10 20 10
cotulla 73 92 71 94 72 40 40 10 10 10
kingsville 74 92 72 93 73 40 30 10 20 10
navy corpus 78 86 78 88 77 30 30 10 20 10

Crp watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

Tb 78... Short term


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AWRT2 14 mi38 min ESE 8.9 G 12 81°F 84°F1013.8 hPa
PTAT2 - Port Aransas, TX 20 mi56 min E 16 G 18 80°F 83°F1013.1 hPa (+0.0)77°F
ANPT2 20 mi38 min E 16 G 18 80°F 81°F1012.2 hPa
RTAT2 - 8775237 - Port Aransas, TX 20 mi38 min E 11 G 16 80°F 81°F1013.3 hPa
SDRT2 - 8773037 - Seadrift, TX 26 mi38 min ENE 8.9 G 11 82°F 85°F1014.1 hPa
TAQT2 - 8775296 - Texas State Aquarium, TX 29 mi38 min 81°F 83°F1011.9 hPa
NUET2 32 mi38 min E 16 G 21 84°F1013.1 hPa
PACT2 - 8775792 - Packery Channel, TX 35 mi38 min E 17 G 19 81°F 85°F1013 hPa
MQTT2 - 8775870 - Malaquite Beach (Corpus Christi), TX 39 mi38 min ENE 16 G 19 80°F 83°F1012 hPa
PCNT2 - 8773701 - Matagorda Bay; Port O'Connor, TX 40 mi38 min ESE 8.9 G 9.9 80°F 83°F1014.2 hPa
VCAT2 42 mi38 min SE 13 G 16 81°F 84°F1014 hPa
MBET2 42 mi38 min SE 8 G 8.9 80°F 83°F1013.3 hPa
IRDT2 47 mi38 min ENE 16 G 19 81°F 87°F1013.1 hPa

Wind History for Rockport, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rockport Aransas County Airport, TX3 mi63 minE 148.00 miFair81°F73°F79%1013.2 hPa
Mc Campbell, TX18 mi61 minSE 1310.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F74°F73%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from RKP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE15
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1 day agoSE15SE12
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Tide / Current Tables for Copano Bay State Fishing Pier, Texas
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Copano Bay State Fishing Pier
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:42 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:35 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:35 AM CDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:48 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:13 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:59 PM CDT     0.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.50.50.40.40.40.30.30.40.40.40.50.50.50.60.60.60.70.70.70.70.70.70.7

Tide / Current Tables for Aransas Pass, Texas Current
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Aransas Pass
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:42 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:16 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:36 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:55 AM CDT     2.01 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:48 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:07 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:13 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2-1.9-1.6-1.1-0.7-0.20.41.11.61.921.91.71.51.20.90.50-0.3-0.5-0.7-0.9-1.2-1.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Corpus Christi, TX (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Corpus Christi, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.