Wednesday, August23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Key Vista, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 8:02PM Wednesday August 23, 2017 4:17 AM EDT (08:17 UTC) Moonrise 7:52AMMoonset 8:32PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 849 Pm Edt Tue Aug 22 2017
Rest of tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots shifting west in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds around 10 knots then becoming southeast around 5 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Thursday..East winds around 5 knots then becoming south in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds around 5 knots then becoming west around 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Numerous Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots diminishing to around 5 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Northwest winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..North winds around 10 knots then becoming northeast around 5 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Sunday..North winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 849 Pm Edt Tue Aug 22 2017
Synopsis.. Interactions between bermuda high pressure in the deep south and a tropical wave moving from the bahamas into the florida peninsula will keep fluctuating gradient over the eastern gulf through mid week with times of increased easterly surges and then afternoon sea breezes. Expect increasing Thunderstorm activity into the weekend with dangerous lightning, locally strong gusty winds, and choppy seas possible.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Key Vista, FL
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location: 28.18, -82.78     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 230513
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
113 am edt Wed aug 23 2017

Aviation
23 06z tafs. PrevailingVFR expected through the TAF period...

however vcts with few-sct CB btwn 18z-03z may provide brief
MVFR LCL ifr late in the period. Light and variable easterly
winds rest of tonight pick up some from the E or SE in the
morning and continue. Although tpa pie srq may bay-sea breeze.

Prev discussion issued 521 pm edt Tue aug 22 2017
update...

although some moisture return is evident in WV imagery
aloft over the southern half of the forecast area, the
extent of influx has been minimal. In addition... It is quite
evident via satellite trends (and looking out the
window)... The we are still dealing with efficient
suppression in the atmosphere... Keeping the CU fields
generally shallow. Another big factor we are seeing as of
5pm is the we still have fairly healthy offshore flow along
the suncoast... Making the likelihood of defined sea-breeze
formation increasingly less likely within the next hour or
two. With all this in mind... Have made a fairly large
decrease in the overall rain chances for our far southern
zones from highlands to charlotte lee counties. Further
north than that, not needing much in the way of change as
chances were already slight chance isolated at best up to
the i-4 corridor... And less than 10% further north.

Will not remove pops altogether this evening for the
southern zones, as still anticipate a few widely scattered
cells to get established between 22z and 00z... Mainly south
of a line from sarasota to sebring... With better chances
the further south. However, at this point... All the factors
above make it difficult to expect more than about a 30%
chance at any one location. Will remove all pops over the
landmass after 02z... With a dry rest of the overnight
region-wide.

The moisture will continue a slow recovery aloft during the
day Wednesday... And be back above normal for all areas by
Thursday. The combination of this increase in available
moisture, and the arrival of a weak surface trough from the
east (and resulting enhanced surface focus)... The chances
for diurnal showers and storms will slowly ramp up through
the middle of the week.

Prev discussion... Issued 303 pm edt Tue aug 22 2017
short term (tonight-Wednesday)...

a tropical wave just to the east of the southeast fl coast
will gradually shift west over south fl and weaken across
the area through Wednesday. Deep moisture will move into the
area and allow for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms, with the highest chances Wednesday afternoon
and across the south. Generally east to NE winds will be in
place through the period, becoming light overnight, and a
weak sea breeze Wednesday afternoon turning winds onshore.

Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 70s north and
inland, and in the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast.

Highs Wednesday in the lower to mid 90s.

Long term (Wednesday night through next Tuesday)...

at the beginning of the long range period, a potent upper
trough will extend from the northern plains into new
england. High pressure will dominate the remainder of the
country with a couple of noted weaknesses in the tropics. At
the surface, high pressure will extend across the western
atlantic ocean and the gulf of mexico with a weak tropical
low near the southern tip of florida, and a strengthening
low pressure system over the western gulf of mexico.

We again face an uncertain forecast as models continue to
handle the evolution of a weak surface low quite poorly.

This tropical disturbance is currently situated over the
bahamas and will drift slowly west to northwest to a
position either over the southern florida peninsula or just
offshore in the far eastern gulf by late Wednesday. As is
common with weak areas of low pressure, medium range
guidance can hardly resolve the system, which is making the
exact track of the feature very difficult to discern. The
more reliable mid long range solutions are beginning to
converge somewhat, but we have a long way to go before
consensus is obtained. To complicate things, the remnants of
harvey look to move out into the western gulf, eventually
strengthening into at least a tropical depression or
tropical storm. Both of these features, along with a
deepening of the upper trough and a southward moving cold
front will lead to a complicated forecast and error is
certain to be quite high as we move beyond this weekend.

What we do know is that the weak tropical disturbance is
likely to at least affect areas of southern and perhaps
central florida Wednesday into the weekend, as a plume of
deep tropical moisture joins the daily seabreeze
circulations and daytime heating. This should promote fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms Thursday through
Saturday afternoon, especially south of the i-4 corridor.

Localized flooding may occur in areas that receive training
rounds of heavy rain, though widespread flooding doesn't
appear likely at this time. Further north, over north
central florida and along the nature coast, lesser chances
of rain will exist due in part to the presence of some
slightly drier air aloft.

Beyond the weekend, even greater uncertainty exists as
models attempt to spin up two tropical cyclones along the
stalled frontal boundary. Right now, we look to remain
between these two systems, which would generally favor drier
and hotter conditions that normal, but a small deviation
could result in greater impacts to the area, and will will
have to monitor the situation closely.

Marine...

weak pressures will be in place across the waters with weak
ridging in place and a tropical wave along the SE fl coast.

Increasing moisture will allow for scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms through the weekend as generally
easterly flow continues, turning onshore along the coast
each afternoon. No headlines currently expected through the
period.

Fire weather...

no concerns.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 94 79 91 78 40 30 60 30
fmy 92 76 89 77 70 40 80 40
gif 94 76 92 75 50 20 70 30
srq 94 78 90 78 40 30 60 40
bkv 95 75 93 75 30 20 60 30
spg 94 79 90 79 30 30 60 30

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Aviation... Rude
update... Mroczka
previous discussion... Hubbard austin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 2 mi83 min SE 5.1 G 6 81°F 1015.4 hPa
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 14 mi47 min ESE 6 G 8 82°F 88°F1014.4 hPa
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 18 mi83 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 77°F 1015 hPa
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 25 mi47 min ESE 1.9 G 2.9 80°F 88°F1014.4 hPa
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 25 mi59 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 26 mi53 min E 1.9 G 2.9
MCYF1 26 mi47 min 89°F
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 30 mi47 min E 5.1 G 7 82°F 88°F1014.6 hPa
CLBF1 31 mi83 min E 1.9 G 4.1 82°F 1014 hPa
MTBF1 37 mi47 min E 7 G 8.9 81°F 1014.5 hPa
PMAF1 39 mi47 min 78°F 88°F1013.6 hPa
42098 42 mi47 min 89°F2 ft

Wind History for Clearwater Beach, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL19 mi24 minN 010.00 miFair80°F75°F87%1013.9 hPa
Tampa, Tampa International Airport, FL20 mi24 minNE 310.00 miFair81°F75°F82%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from PIE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9E9E9E7E7E9E7NE6NE5NE5NE43N6NW11NW8NE8NE9NE7E9SE10E10E9CalmCalm
1 day agoSE5E4E7E7E7E8E9SE7SE7SE7SE7NE4E6E5E6E8E8E7E7SE12SE11E8E5E7
2 days agoE4E3E3CalmSE7E7E5E63NE33NE4E8E7E12E12SE12SE7SE6SE8SE6E7E8E8

Tide / Current Tables for Anclote, Anclote River, Florida
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Anclote
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Wed -- 02:14 AM EDT     2.95 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:12 AM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:04 PM EDT     3.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:46 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.12.72.92.92.52.11.510.80.91.322.73.23.43.32.82.21.50.80.40.20.51.1

Tide / Current Tables for New Port Richey, Pithlachascotee River, Florida
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New Port Richey
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:35 AM EDT     3.45 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:07 AM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:24 PM EDT     3.85 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.82.83.43.43.12.621.40.90.70.91.62.53.33.83.83.42.82.11.40.70.40.30.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.