Friday, November17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Patrick Shores, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 5:29PM Friday November 17, 2017 7:44 PM EST (00:44 UTC) Moonrise 5:52AMMoonset 5:19PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 313 Pm Est Fri Nov 17 2017
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Sunday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Monday..East winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 313 Pm Est Fri Nov 17 2017
Synopsis..Boating conditions will gradually improve over the weekend as high pressure settles over central florida. Winds and seas will build once again Sunday night into Monday behind a cold front.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Thursday november 16th. 45 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 35 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 29 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 20 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 13 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Patrick Shores, FL
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location: 28.21, -80.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 171944
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
243 pm est Fri nov 17 2017

Discussion
Tonight-Saturday... Eastern CONUS surface high will slide eastward
into the western atlantic as a trailing ridge axis settles southward
across central florida. Prevailing NE flow will slacken overnight,
with potential for some patchy late night fog N W of i-4. Winds
become light SE to s-sw by Saturday afternoon.Some cirrus may start
to stream overhead late in the day, however overall conditions look
mainly sunny and warmer, with MAX temps reaching the l80s. Overnight
mins mainly in the m-u50s, with some l50s over the far north, and
near 60f in the orl metro and along the immediate coast.

Sunday-Monday... Low-level high pressure well east of the carolinas
will continue to move out to sea ahead of a cold front approaching
the east coast and northern florida early Sunday morning.

Moisture associated with this frontal boundary will not be overly
impressive and pretty shallow in nature resulting in only 20-30%
precip chances areawide. As far as timing is concerned... Clouds and
rain chances will increase from north to south as the day progresses
beginning after sunrise Sunday morning along and north of the i-4
corridor. Areas farther south will see the best rain chances in the
late morning through late afternoon with the treasure coast back
through okeechobee county remaining dry through late afternoon. Some
showers could stick around for the treasure coast through early
overnight Sunday before coming to an end.

Behind the front, winds will turn northwesterly and then northerly
as high pressure builds in over the gulf coast states. This will
usher much drier air into the area beginning late Sunday afternoon
for northern areas into overnight Sunday for the far southern areas
with skies quickly clearing out as the drier airmass overtakes east
central florida. Low temperatures on Monday morning will be pretty
chilly with mid to upper 40s possible north of i-4. Lows will
generally be low to mid 50s all other areas with upper 50s to low
60s for the treasure coast.

The area of high pressure will continue to slide eastward on Monday
with winds becoming northeasterly to easterly with breezy conditions
along the coast. Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy with
no rain in the forecast and highs in the low to mid 70s.

Tuesday... High pressure pushes off the mid atlantic coast with
return flow developing as the front over south florida lifts back to
the north. Models offer differing solutions on the development of an
inverted trough or weak low along the boundary as shortwave energy
passes overhead Tuesday afternoon. Regardless, given the increase in
moisture and low level convergence near the boundary, expect an
uptick in precipitation chances areawide along with a low chance for
thunder that will remain confined to the coastal waters (for now).

Capped pops at 50% given the uncertainty in the amount of surface
development, but would not be surprised if further increases become
necessary in future updates. Noticeable climb in dewpoints (mid 60s)
and temps (upper 70s) expected in the increasingly moist southeast
flow.

Wednesday-Friday... Unsettled pattern continues into the extended as
a second, stronger trough digs into the gulf of mexico and develops
into a closed (or nearly closed) low. Models continue to offer
differing solutions of synoptic features during this time frame, but
in general agree that the mid upper level feature will induce
surface cyclogenesis over the central and eastern gulf. Latest 12z
gfs (and to a lesser extent the 12z ecmwf) indicates a slightly more
progressive trough compared to their earlier run with low pressure
making its closest approach between late Thursday (gfs) and late
Friday (ecmwf). Given the uncertainties in the forecast, have opted
to cap pops at 50% late in the period as we await future guidance.

Warmer temps (mid upper 70s) expected in south southeast flow out
ahead of the low pressure, though remaining tempered given the ample
cloud cover expected.

Aviation Vfr. Patchy br mifg possible over the NW aerodromes from
09z-13z.

Marine Tonight-Saturday... Surface ridge axis settles south over
the local atlantic through Saturday afternoon. This will result in
ne winds of winds veering to east at 10-13kt this evening, veering
to SE and then south at around 10kt on Saturday. Seas will be slow
to subside, remaining in the 3-4ft range along the immediate coast,
and 4-5ft farther offshore.

Sunday-Monday... Gradually deteriorating boating conditions from
north to south through the day Sunday as a cold front moves through
the area. Southwest to westerly winds will turn northwesterly and
northerly 15-20 knots nearshore and around 20 knots offshore as the
front passes. Seas build to 4-6 feet Sunday night into Monday
morning with 6-7 feet near the gulf stream. Conditions should
improve somewhat through the day on Monday as winds are forecast to
decrease slightly with seas gradually subsiding.

Tuesday-Wednesday... Winds veer to the southeast on Tuesday as the
old front over south florida returns north as a warm front. Models
indicate a weak inverted trough developing along the boundary which
will weaken winds from 15-20 knots early Tuesday to around 10 knots
Wednesday. Seas slowly improve from 5-7 feet early Tuesday to 3-5
feet by Wednesday.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 57 80 62 74 0 0 10 30
mco 58 82 60 76 0 0 10 30
mlb 60 80 61 80 0 0 0 30
vrb 58 81 60 80 0 0 0 20
lee 58 81 62 74 0 0 10 30
sfb 58 82 61 76 0 0 10 30
orl 60 82 62 76 0 0 10 30
fpr 57 80 60 82 0 0 0 20

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term... Cristaldi aviation
mid term... Combs
long term impact wx... Ulrich


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SIPF1 26 mi29 min E 11 73°F 73°F1018 hPa
41118 28 mi44 min 71°F3 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 31 mi34 min E 9.7 G 14 74°F 75°F1017.2 hPa57°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cocoa - Patrick Air Force Base, FL2 mi46 minNE 510.00 miFair70°F57°F64%1017.7 hPa
Melbourne International Airport, FL7 mi51 minENE 610.00 miA Few Clouds71°F55°F59%1017 hPa
Cocoa Beach, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Skid Strip, FL18 mi46 minNE 310.00 miFair62°F56°F82%1017.6 hPa
Titusville, FL23 mi57 minNE 47.00 miA Few Clouds68°F57°F69%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from COF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW10N8NW8NW6NW8NW10NW10N9N10N10N11N10N11N9NW8N11N12N13N11NE11NE10NE5NE7NE5
1 day agoN16
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2 days agoN18
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N15N15N12N13N11N12N13N12N12N14N12
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Tide / Current Tables for Patrick Air Force Base, Florida
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Patrick Air Force Base
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Fri -- 12:26 AM EST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:39 AM EST     4.55 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:53 PM EST     0.75 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:19 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:43 PM EST     4.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.411.92.93.94.44.54.13.42.41.50.90.81.11.82.73.64.14.33.93.22.21.3

Tide / Current Tables for Cocoa Beach, Florida
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Cocoa Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:20 AM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:39 AM EST     4.37 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:46 PM EST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:19 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:46 PM EST     4.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.30.91.82.73.64.24.33.93.12.11.20.70.50.91.72.53.33.94.13.7321.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.