Wednesday, December13, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Loughman, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 5:33PM Wednesday December 13, 2017 5:46 AM EST (10:46 UTC) Moonrise 2:58AMMoonset 2:48PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 335 Am Est Wed Dec 13 2017
Today..North winds 10 to 15 knots early this morning diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming northwest around 5 knots late in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop in the morning, then becoming a light chop in the afternoon.
Tonight..West winds around 5 knots then becoming southwest around 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday night..South winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Friday..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
Friday night..West winds around 5 knots then becoming north around 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday night..East winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 335 Am Est Wed Dec 13 2017
Synopsis..Gusty northwest to north winds and elevated seas over the gulf waters early this morning will diminish and subside later this morning through the afternoon as high pressure builds into the region. The high will build in over the southern florida peninsula tonight, then shift east into the western atlantic on Thursday. As the high moves east a southwest wind flow will develop over the waters tonight through Thursday night. Another front will move into the northern waters on Friday and likely stall and wash out across the north central waters on Saturday as high pressure to the north bridges across it with an increasing easterly wind flow expected over the waters during the weekend. Wind will remain elevated late in the weekend as they become southeasterly as the gradient tightens between high pressure to the north and developing low pressure over the lower mississippi valley.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Loughman, FL
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location: 28.22, -81.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 130811
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
311 am est Wed dec 13 2017

Short term (today - Thursday)
Surface high pressure building in from the west will support
ample sunshine and cool dry weather across the entire
forecast area today. Cool air advection will offset the
ample Sun with afternoon highs only reaching into the upper
50s to around 60 north, and lower to mid 60s central and
south.

Tonight the surface high will build in over the southern
peninsula with clear skies and cool conditions expected.

Light to calm winds combined with the dry air mass will
allow overnight lows to fall into the lower to mid 40s in
most areas, with a few upper 30s possible over central and
southern interior zones by early Thursday morning.

On Thursday the surface high will shift eastward into the
western atlantic during the day with a southwest wind flow
developing across the forecast area. The southwest flow
will allow the cool dry airmass to modify with an increase
in moisture supporting an increase in clouds during the
afternoon, especially across northern zones ahead of the
next approaching cold front. Temperatures on Thursday will
be warmer than today given the southwest flow with afternoon
highs climbing into the lower 70s.

Long term (Thursday night - Tuesday)
Aloft - broad troughiness stretches diagonally across the
nation from southeast canada to northwest mexico through
the weekend as atlantic ridging eases westward... Over fl to
the gulf of mexico. During early next week the troughiness
begins to shift northeastward with the ridging flattening
across the gulf and fl. Surface - high pressure across fl
from the atlantic pulls away to the east Fri as a front
sweeps down the state... With high pressure building in along
the gulf coastal states. Over the weekend this high is
reinforced by canadian high pressure sliding down the
eastern seaboard. This high pressure shifts offshore early
mon as another front moves into the region. The GFS and
ecmwf have been fairly consistent but diverge for the last
couple of days in the period. The GFS holds the front north
of the area Mon and brings it through tues while the ecmwf
pushes a drier front across Mon with high pressure behind
it.

Both fronts will provide some slight chance to chance pops
when they move through... Fri and again late Sun into mon.

For now have favored the ECMWF to end the forecast with and
have kept Tue dry. Limited moisture across the area and
minimal energy... With the ridge over or near fl... Should
result in mainly showers. Temperatures run slightly above
average although the two frontal passages will dip readings
a degree or two.

Aviation
Vfr is expected at all terminal sites during the next 24
hours. Northwest to north winds in the 7 to 10 knot range
this morning will back to the west at 6 to 8 knots after
18z. Southwest winds AOB 5 knots is expected after 01z
tonight.

Marine
Elevated northwest to north winds along with rough seas
early this morning will slowly diminish and subside later
this morning as surface high pressure builds in from the
west, with improving marine conditions expected by late
morning and into the afternoon and continuing through
Thursday night. Even though winds are expected to slowly
diminish will keep small craft headlines in place until 12z
this morning to account for a slower decrease in sea
conditions. Northwest to north winds this morning will back
to the west during this afternoon as the high builds
eastward with winds becoming southwest tonight through
Thursday night as the high builds across the southern
peninsula tonight and then moves east into the western
atlantic during Thursday and Thursday night as the next cold
front approaches the northern gulf waters on Friday.

During the upcoming weekend the aforementioned cold front
will sink south into the north-central waters where it
will likely stall and wash out as surface high pressure to
the north bridges across it with an easterly wind flow
developing on Saturday then becoming southeast and
increasing to near cautionary levels on Sunday as the
pressure gradient tightens between high pressure along the
mid atlantic coast and developing low pressure over the
lower mississippi valley.

Fire weather
Drier air advecting into the region this morning in the wake
of a cold front will support 4 to 6 hours of humidity
values below 35 percent across interior sections of the
forecast area today during the afternoon. Despite the low
humidity though low erc values combined with lighter winds
will preclude red flag conditions. During tonight through
the remainder of the week an increase in moisture will keep
humidity values above critical levels with no fire weather
issues expected at this time.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 64 52 73 61 0 0 10 10
fmy 66 48 74 57 0 0 0 0
gif 64 44 73 56 0 0 10 10
srq 63 51 73 60 0 0 10 10
bkv 63 43 73 56 0 0 10 10
spg 62 53 73 61 0 0 10 20

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through this afternoon for coastal
charlotte-coastal hillsborough-coastal lee-coastal
manatee-coastal sarasota-pinellas.

Gulf waters... Small craft advisory until 7 am est this morning for
coastal waters from bonita beach to englewood fl out
20 nm-coastal waters from englewood to tarpon springs
fl out 20 nm-coastal waters from tarpon springs to
suwannee river fl out 20 nm-waters from bonita beach
to englewood fl out 20 to 60 nm-waters from englewood
to tarpon springs fl out 20 to 60 nm-waters from
tarpon springs to suwannee river fl out 20 to 60 nm.

Short term aviation marine fire weather... 57 mcmichael
long term decision support... 09 rude


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 49 mi52 min NNE 6 G 8
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 49 mi58 min N 6 G 8.9
MCYF1 49 mi46 min 68°F

Wind History for TPA Cruise Terminal 2, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kissimmee Gateway Airport, FL9 mi50 minNW 410.00 miFair45°F37°F74%1018 hPa
Winter Havens Gilbert Airport, FL14 mi53 minNNW 710.00 miFair48°F36°F63%1017.9 hPa
Orlando International Airport, FL20 mi53 minNW 910.00 miFair47°F36°F66%1017.2 hPa
Bartow Municipal, FL22 mi51 minN 010.00 miFair45°F33°F66%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from ISM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSW8SW9W11
G17
W14W15
G23
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W19
G24
W17
G22
W15
G22
W10W15
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NW12NW10NW9NW8NW9NW8N6NW5NW4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmN5N56--NW84--NW4NW4CalmCalmW6W4NW4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW3
2 days agoNW5N7N9N10N10NW9NW10N8NW7
G15
N8N8--CalmCalmCalmW4W3CalmW4NW3CalmCalmNW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for CSX Rockport, Mckay Bay Entrance, Florida
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CSX Rockport
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:00 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:10 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:22 AM EST     1.70 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:51 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:47 PM EST     0.93 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:51 PM EST     2.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.11.71.30.80.40.20.30.50.91.21.51.71.71.51.41.210.91.11.51.92.22.42.5

Tide / Current Tables for Davis Island, Hillsborough Bay, Florida
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Davis Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:00 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:46 AM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:42 AM EST     1.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:51 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:49 PM EST     0.93 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:44 PM EST     2.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.61.20.80.50.20.20.30.611.31.51.51.41.31.110.91.11.31.72.12.32.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.