Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Loughman, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:35PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 3:24 PM EST (20:24 UTC) Moonrise 12:34PMMoonset 11:36PM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 246 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming northwest and increasing to around 15 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Northwest winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday night..North winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday..North winds around 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday through Monday..North winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 246 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis..A cold front will move across the waters later tonight with showers and a few Thunderstorms along and ahead of it. Winds will shift to the northwest and north and increase toward small craft levels over the offshore waters late tonight through Thursday as the front moves through the waters. The front will move south of the waters Thursday night as high pressure builds in over the northern gulf on Friday and into the upcoming weekend with diminishing winds and subsiding seas expected.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Loughman, FL
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location: 28.22, -81.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 141918
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
218 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Turning much cooler and drier on Friday and into the
weekend...

Short term (tonight - Thursday)
An amplified upper air pattern will persist across the conus
during the short term period. An upper level trough closed
low over the lower mississippi valley this afternoon will
lift northeast into the ohio valley through Thursday. At the
surface an area of low pressure will develop along a
stalled frontal boundary over the eastern gulf tonight. This
low will then deepen as it lifts out to the northeast up
along the mid atlantic coast through Thursday. As the low
lifts out a trailing cold front will sweep southeast through
the forecast area later tonight and early on Thursday.

Ample moisture and lift will support scattered to numerous
showers and isolated storms across the forecast area tonight
through early Thursday as the front moves across the
region.

On Thursday any lingering rain during the morning will end
by early afternoon as much cooler and drier air advects
into the region on an increasing northwest to northerly wind
flow in the wake of the front. Temperatures will be mild
through the first half of tonight, then cooler drier air
will begin to move in from the north early on Thursday, and
highs temperatures on Thursday will likely occur during the
morning hours with steady or even falling temperatures
possible during the afternoon as strong cold air advection
gets underway. Low temperatures tonight will range from the
lower 60s north, mid to upper 60s central, and around 70
across southwest florida with highs on Thursday in the mid
to upper 60s north, around 70 to the lower 70s central, and
mid 70s south.

Long term (Thursday night - Wednesday)
By Thursday night, the surface front will have pushed south
of the area, with the moisture lingering behind the front
across the southern half of the area and some of the cooler
drier air starting to push into the nature coast. The upper
low will be in place to the north of the area and lift out
to the northeast through Friday. The clearing behind the
surface front continues to push south through Friday, with
the cooler and drier air overspreading the area as high
pressure builds into the southeast u.S. Lows Thursday and
Friday night in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and in the
mid 40s to mid 50s elsewhere. Highs Friday mid 60s to lower
70s, then lower to mid 70s Saturday afternoon.

Surface ridging then continues across the area through the
weekend as conditions moderate, and aloft generally W sw
flow remains across the area. A weak front then moves into
the area Monday night, with upper energy lingering across
the area through the end of the period. No appreciable rain
chances expected with this however. Highs will linger in the
70s to around 80 through the rest of the period, with lows
in the 50s to lower 60s.

Aviation
Vfr this afternoon will give way to MVFR ifr conditions
after 21z and continuing through the end of the taf
forecast period as shra tsra develop over the region ahead
of a cold front. Northeast to east winds in the 6 to 8 knot
range may briefly become onshore at the coastal sites after
20z. Winds will shift to the northwest and north and
increase to 10 to 12 knots after 07z tonight as the front
moves through the region.

Marine
Developing low pressure over the eastern gulf along a
stalled frontal boundary will deepen as it lifts out to
the northeast across the northern peninsula later tonight
and then up along the mid atlantic coast through Thursday
night. As the low lifts out to the northeast a trailing cold
front will get pulled southeast through the waters later
tonight through early Thursday with winds shifting into the
northwest and north in its wake with a period of small craft
conditions likely with hazardous boating conditions
developing. With wind and seas expected to increase
overnight into Thursday in the wake of the front will hoist
small craft headlines for the offshore waters for later
tonight through Thursday, with cautionary headlines closer
to shore. The building seas and increasing onshore flow will
also increase the potential for dangerous rip currents at
all area beaches later tonight through Thursday night and
will hoist a high risk of rip current statement as well.

Lighter winds and lower seas will return to the waters on
Friday night and into the upcoming weekend as surface high
pressure builds in over the gulf in the wake of the front.

Fire weather
Much cooler and drier air in the wake of a cold front will
move into the region to close out the week. Humidity
values may fall close to 35 percent over interior locations
during Friday afternoon, however low erc values and
diminishing winds will preclude red flag conditions. A slow
increase in moisture is expected during the weekend as winds
quickly veer into the northeast and east with no other fire
weather hazards or concerns expected.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 68 70 50 67 80 20 0 0
fmy 71 77 55 72 70 20 0 0
gif 68 73 46 68 80 20 0 0
srq 69 72 54 69 70 20 0 0
bkv 66 67 42 66 80 20 0 0
spg 69 70 54 67 80 20 0 0

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk from late tonight through Thursday
evening for coastal charlotte-coastal hillsborough-
coastal lee-coastal manatee-coastal sarasota-pinellas.

Gulf waters... Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 5 pm est
Thursday for waters from bonita beach to englewood fl
out 20 to 60 nm-waters from englewood to tarpon
springs fl out 20 to 60 nm-waters from tarpon springs
to suwannee river fl out 20 to 60 nm.

Short term aviation marine fire weather... 57 mcmichael
long term decision support... 24 hubbard


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 49 mi55 min E 4.1 G 7
MCYF1 49 mi37 min 79°F

Wind History for TPA Cruise Terminal 2, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kissimmee Gateway Airport, FL9 mi29 minE 710.00 miFair87°F70°F57%1016 hPa
Winter Havens Gilbert Airport, FL14 mi32 minE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy88°F70°F55%1015.7 hPa
Orlando International Airport, FL20 mi32 minENE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F69°F61%1015.5 hPa
Bartow Municipal, FL22 mi39 minESE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F71°F66%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from ISM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4SW3CalmCalmNW5N5N3N3NW4NW5N7NE7NE6N7N6N5NE6NE7E9E6E7S6S3E7
1 day agoSE8SE4E6E6SE7SE8S9S6S5S5S5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S7SE6SW6S9SW9SW5
2 days agoE9E12E11NE7NE6NE8NE7NE6E5E4CalmNE3NE3CalmNE3E3E4SE9SE11SE11SE10E9S10SE7

Tide / Current Tables for CSX Rockport, Mckay Bay Entrance, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Davis Island, Hillsborough Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.