Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Patrick AFB, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 6:20PM Saturday February 23, 2019 3:55 PM EST (20:55 UTC) Moonrise 10:53PMMoonset 9:52AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 333 Pm Est Sat Feb 23 2019
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Monday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Monday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Chance of showers.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 5 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Chance of showers.
Thursday..North winds 5 knots becoming northeast in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 333 Pm Est Sat Feb 23 2019
Synopsis..High pressure centered east of the bahamas will begin to break down tonight as a cold front races across the gulf of mexico, then into central florida on Sunday. Winds will respond by veering to a gentle to moderate south-southwest breeze overnight, to west-southwest through the day on Sunday, then to the west-northwest Sunday night. The offshore flow will limit sea development, but also will generate shortening dominant wave periods. The front will reach stall over south of florida on Monday. Hazardous marine conditions are expected early next week as a northerly wind surge develops behind the front.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Thursday february 21st. 42 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 29 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Patrick AFB, FL
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location: 28.25, -80.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 232033
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
333 pm est Sat feb 23 2019

Discussion
Tonight-Sunday...

a powerful 130-140kt h30-h20 jet streak over the nation's midsection
will push a well dvlpd storm system from the central plains into the
great lakes region overnight. This storm system will crank a cold
front rapidly acrs the gomex, reaching the west fl panhandle by
daybreak, and central fl by sunset. This, in turn, will finally
erode and flatten the atlc ridge that has dominated the fl wx
pattern for the past several days. Even so, the anomalously warm
temps will continue for one more day as the frontal trof interacts
with the WRN flank of the ridge and tightens the LCL pgrad.

The mean h100-h70 flow will freshen out of the S SW overnight before
veering to the W SW thru the day on sun, which climatologically is
the warmest flow regime for east central fl. Overnight mins m u60s
with a few spots on the immediate treasure coast holding arnd the
70f mark... About 15f abv avg. Sun maxes in the m u80s, 10-15f abv
avg.

Overnight precip will be a near repeat of the past few nights as the
warm temps from the brisk srly winds have allowed both east west
coast sea breezes to form, resulting in multiple mesoscale boundaries
across central fl. Moisture will be the limiting factor with pwat
values btwn 1.25"-1.50", h100-h70 mean rh btwn 60-70pct. Pops
will be capped at 30pct from CAPE canaveral lake-k northward,
20pct to the south. Inland progress of the sea breezes will be
slow given the prevailing srly flow, so shra potential will linger
thru midnight for the space treasure coast lake-o region, and the
early mrng hrs for the i-4 corridor.

Precip potential with the Sunday FROPA will be low as the parent low
races into ERN canada and abandons the SRN extension of its front,
leaving it only little more than its forward momentum to break down
the atlc ridge. While there is little doubt of this scenario, in
doing so front will lose most of its punch given the current
strength of the atlc ridge. Furthermore, the prefrontal moisture
band is rather narrow with MAX low mid lvl rh that is already
lifting up the lwr ms valley. Much of precip potential, in fact,
will come from a pocket of enhanced moisture over the yucatan
channel that will be pulled into the fl peninsula with the
freshening S SW prefrontal flow, but from an airmass that has little
in the way of dynamic support. Will paint the CWA with 20pct pops,
shras only, tsra potential too low.

Sun night-tue (previous modified)... A high pressure at the surface
over central atlantic, extending towards the NE bahamas on sun
night, will retreat east as a cold front approaches from the north
and GOES over east central fl Sun night. This front will maintain
its identity but remain stymied over south the fl straits through
tue. Winds on Sun night will be transitioning from the S to SW as
the front approaches the local forecast area then NW N Sun night,
post-frontal. As high pressure noses in from the NW during the day
on Mon winds will continue to veer to NE ene E through Mon night.

Wind speeds may increase to around 15 mph on sun, but will increase
to 15-20 mph with higher gusts on Mon as the pressure gradient
tightens between the former front and fairly stout high pressure to
the north.

Mid-upper level support for this approaching front will be minimal
and models are not too excited for precip. Rain chances will clear
from north to south and by Sun night, treasure coast and coastal
waters will be the ones with early evening activity. Quiet on mon
through the early evening. Based on the latest guidance, as the
front, now as a warm front, starts to lift north, rain changes will
increase from the south through tue.

Temperatures behind the front will cold down, with highs in the lower
to mid 70s on Monday, dropping more than 10 degrees vs Sunday's
high. Mins Sun night Mon morning in the l-m 60s except m-u50s north
of i-4. Mins Mon night Tue morning in the 50s l60s most of the
interior except m60s coastal st. Lucie martin counties and adjacent
barrier islands.

Tue night-sat (previous modified)... A surface low pressure will
be exiting the NE u.S. On Tue night and east flow will be present
for florida. Then late wed, the GFS is developing a low pressure
over the mid- atlantic states, which will cause for the local
winds to veer from the south on Wed night. Euro has a similar but
weaker scenario but for Thu with no much effect for our waters.

Went with the superblend for the extended and forecast will be
adjusted with new guidance. Subtle mid-level impulses will
traverse the region.

Models insistent on Wed being a wet day with 50pct pops areawide and
the surface boundary very slowly moving northward. The position of
the boundary into past mid-week will be key to where higher precip
values are as pieces of energy embedded within the zonal flow
continue to traverse the region. Keeping elevated pops (40pct) in
areawide on Thu as a result. The rather stubborn unsettled pattern
may very well continue into Fri though trend of moisture surges
combined with disturbances aloft remain tricky to time. For now will
keep 30-40pct mention in the forecast. Still would not be surprised
to see isold mention of thunder in a few periods, but confidence not
high enough at the moment for inclusion.

Highs during this period will be in the upper 70s near 80 into
sat. Lows a little above normal Tue night Wed morning, then well
above normal through the extended timeframe.

Aviation Thru 24 18z.

Sfc winds... Thru 24 00z... S SE 8-13kts E of kmlb-kobe ocnl sfc g18-
23kts. Btwn 24 00z-24 03z... Bcmg S 5-8kts. Btwn 24 03z-24 06z...

bcmg S SW 4-7kts. Btwn 24 12z-24 15z... Bcmg S SW 7-11kts. Btwn
24 15z-24 18z... Bcmg S SW 9-13kts with ocnl sfc g18-22kts.

Vsbys wx cigs... Thru 24 00z... Coastal sites slgt chc of MVFR shras.

Btwn 24 00z-24 05z... N of ktix-ksef slgt chc MVFR shras... S of ktix-
ksef slgt chc MVFR. Btwn 24 05z-24 14z... N of kism-kmlb slgt chc
MVFR shras... Areas ifr CIGS vsbys in br st. Aft 24 14z...VFR sct-bkn
fl040-060.

Marine
Tonight... A cold front will push rapidly acrs the gomex, reaching
the WRN fl panhandle by daybreak. This will force the western flank
of the atlantic ridge to retreat... Resulting in a tightening of the
lcl pgrad that also will force sfc bndry lyr winds to veer to the
s SW in a gentle to moderate breeze... Possibly fresh at times over
the gulf stream north of CAPE canaveral. Seas 2-3ft nearshore and 3-
4ft offshore... Up to 5ft over the in the gulf stream north of the
cape. Chc of shras mvg offshore from the CAPE northward thru
midnight... Slgt chc of shras elsewhere.

Sunday... Cold front will push down the peninsula thru the day,
reaching the vcnty of CAPE canaveral around sunset. Gradual wndshft
thru the day, bmcg W SW by sunset in a gentle to moderate breeze.

The dvlpg offshore component will leave the LCL atlc fetch
protected, allowing seas to subside to 2-3ft nearshore and 3-4ft
offshore. However, these seas will be primarily short pd windwaves
with dominant pd shortening to 5-6sec nearshore and 6-7sec offshore.

Slgt chc of shras.

Sun night-thu... A cold front is forecast to reach east central fl
waters late Sunday into Sun night and settle across south of fl
through tue. Winds over the coastal waters will veer rapidly from
sw to W to N on Sun night, starting Mon morning from the nne to
ne. Winds of 20-25 knots will reach our waters right behind the
front on Sun night and near 20 knots by Mon mid-morning and from
the east Mon night. This wind and waves surge (to 6-7 feet) will
focus on late Sun through Mon night, with winds and seas subsiding
to 15-20 knots from Tue to Tue night. GFS and euro in the last
12z run have different scenarios for Wed night into Thu that could
impact the winds over our coastal waters. Superblend was used for
this afternoon's forecast update but it will be adjusted as new
guidance arrives. For now, winds were kept below advisory criteria
for the rest of the period and seas gradually subsiding.

Cautionary statements advisories may be necessary Sun night into Monday
night Tue morning.

Climate
Record highs and warm mins through Sunday.

Sat feb 23 Sun feb 24
hi-max hi-min hi-max hi-min
dab 87 2013 69 2013 88 2012 68 1962
mco 89 2013 69 2013 90 1962 68 1962
sfb 88 2013 70 2013 89 2012 70 1962
mlb 90 1961 72 2018 92 1962 72 2018
vrb 89 2008 73 1961 89 2012 71 2018
fpr 89 2932 71 1979 90 2012 70 1949

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 68 84 57 70 30 20 20 10
mco 68 88 61 74 30 20 10 10
mlb 68 85 66 73 20 20 10 10
vrb 69 85 66 75 20 20 20 10
lee 68 86 57 73 30 20 10 10
sfb 67 87 60 72 30 20 10 10
orl 69 88 61 73 30 20 10 10
fpr 69 85 66 75 20 20 20 10

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term aviation... Bragaw
long term impact wx... Negron
data collection... Smith


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 11 mi38 min ESE 5.1 G 9.9 77°F 71°F1020 hPa
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 11 mi56 min 70°F2 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 28 mi36 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 74°F 1019.6 hPa71°F
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 99 mi38 min S 11 G 14

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cocoa - Patrick Air Force Base, FL1 mi60 minSE 910.00 miFair76°F73°F92%1019.1 hPa
Melbourne International Airport, FL10 mi63 minESE 15 G 2210.00 miA Few Clouds82°F70°F67%1018.2 hPa
Cocoa Beach, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Skid Strip, FL15 mi60 minSSE 1310.00 miFair80°F73°F79%1018.6 hPa
Titusville, FL21 mi64 minSE 147.00 miA Few Clouds84°F71°F66%1019 hPa

Wind History from COF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7SE8SE7E6E9E8E10E9E9E7SE6SE8SE7SE7SE7SE6S9SE8S8S7SE6S7S8S9
1 day agoSE6SE5E7SE8SE11SE9SE14S10SE10SE9S11SE9S9S7S4S6SE4SE3SE3S3CalmSE4SE5SE3
2 days agoSE11SE11SE14
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Tide / Current Tables for Patrick Air Force Base, Florida
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Patrick Air Force Base
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Sat -- 04:21 AM EST     -0.61 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:51 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:24 AM EST     3.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:46 PM EST     -0.70 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:18 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:52 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:57 PM EST     3.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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31.90.8-0.1-0.6-0.50.21.22.33.23.73.73.12.21.10.1-0.5-0.7-0.30.61.72.73.53.7

Tide / Current Tables for Canova Beach, Florida
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Canova Beach
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Sat -- 04:33 AM EST     -0.64 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:51 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:35 AM EST     3.74 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:58 PM EST     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:18 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:52 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:08 PM EST     3.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.110-0.5-0.6-00.9233.63.73.22.31.30.2-0.5-0.7-0.40.31.42.53.33.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (15,3,4,5)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.