Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cocoa, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 6:46PM Monday October 23, 2017 9:54 PM EDT (01:54 UTC) Moonrise 9:46AMMoonset 8:44PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 933 Pm Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Rough on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Wednesday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Friday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 933 Pm Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
Synopsis..A high pressure ridge will retreat eastward over the atlantic ahead of a cold front which will push through the waters late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Behind the front Wednesday, expect a surge of northwest winds and building seas, which will gradually subside through late week.
Gulf stream hazards..South winds 15 to 20 knots with seas up to 6 feet. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Sunday october 22nd. 44 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 34 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 30 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 20 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 13 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cocoa, FL
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location: 28.4, -80.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 240128
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
928 pm edt Mon oct 23 2017

Discussion
Evening update... A broken line of showers and storms has moved
across the NRN forecast area this evening with over an inch of rain
at daytona beach and .79 inches at leesburg. Deep upper level trough
from the upper ms valley into the southeast states wil continue
favorable upper level divergence that will gradually shift south
through the night. Forecast models indicate mid levels drying out
across NRN sections above 700 mbs after midnight which should tend
to limit additional vigorous convection across NW areas. Will
continue pops near 50 percent much of the srn CWA and increase pops
slightly near ongoing convection from osceola to volusia counties.

Some locally heavy rainfall amounts up to 1-2 inches possible with
showers storms that redevelop in the moist low level SW flow through
the night mainly SE of a clermont to daytona beach line.

Tonight (previous)... There will be an increase in coverage of
showers storms into this evening as increasingly moist south
southwest flow combines with upper divergence ahead of an upper
level trough. The assocd cold front is currently located from
central ga southward across tlh and into the gulf. Considerable
cirrostratus continues to overspread northern sections which has
limited heating today but developing convection on the fl west coast
will push east and interact with the east coast sea breeze over
interior sections toward evening. Additional storms should develop
over southern sections where more heating has taken place. So have
drawn 50 pops all areas. Convection will likely persist well into
the night supported by forcing aloft. The cold front is forecast to
reach lake volusia counties by sunrise then push more slowly across
ec fl during tue.

Tuesday-Wednesday (previous)... Strong upper low pressure with
associated deep troughing over the central CONUS will move slowly
east and weaken gradually with a mid-level trough axis finally
sliding across the central fl peninsula Wed overnight. This upper
system will help drive a significant cold front into north-central
fl by sunrise Tue morning, then across ecfl during the day on tue
and Tue night. A tight pressure gradient will remain as weak high
pressure builds into the area behind the front late Tue overnight
into wed. An above normal chance of showers and thunderstorms
will precede the boundary on Tue with much drier air filtering
into the area from the north on wed. The showers and storms will
feed off of pwats between 1.70-1.90 inches and some modest surface
heating. The best dynamics, however, will remain north of the
area. A few strong storms may be possible but currently are not
anticipating any severe weather.

Rain chances will range from 30 to 40 percent north of i-4 to 60
percent south of orlando tue. Rain chances will diminish from north
to south over the area Tue night. Have precip slowly ending on wed
over the treasure coast okeechobee county as the ECMWF is a bit
slower to scour out moisture.

Max temps in the l80s tue, perhaps m80s should enough surface
heating occur, and l-m70s on wed. Mins falling back into m-u50s
north l-m60s south behind the front Tue overnight, with l50s for
most of the area Wed night, even some u40s north of i-4 or normally
cooler areas of ecfl.

Thursday-Sunday (previous)... Aloft upper troughing continues to
push eastward away from the peninsula as brief shortwave ridging
moves across the state and northerly winds quickly back to
southwesterly ahead of an approaching upper trough to the west for
fri into the weekend. At the surface weak high pressure builds
across the region on thu, then off of the atlantic seaboard late
fri into Sat with the approach of a tropical low from the south.

Presently, the ECMWF lifts this feature into the fl straits by
late sat, northeast across southeast fl Sat night, and further
northeastward away from the peninsula on sun, swept away by an
approaching front upper trough combo. Model consistence and timing
of surface upper features will play a key role going forward with
exact track strength of this system.

After cooler than normal conditions again on thu, temps should
rebound closer to climo Thu night-fri with the onset of
return onshore flow, then remain near climo next weekend. For now
have kept land areas dry thru Fri night, then introduce a small
threat for showers on Sat Sun (moisture gradient could be tight from
north to south).

Aviation
Scattered shra tsra from kmco vcnty to kdab will transition
gradually SE overnight. Added some tempo groups for expected
shra tsra and also included some lower MVFR cigs NRN terminals in
the 10z-14z time frame late tonight and early Tue morning. Cold
front will slowly push southeast across the area on Tue with sct
tsra developing aft 15z mainly mco south.

Marine
Marine forecast is on track this evening with strongest convection
through midnight expected to affect NRN waters. Tonight(previous)...

s SE pressure gradient will veer out of the S SW supporting wind
speeds of 13-18 knots and seas 4 to 5 feet with up to 6 feet well
offshore. Will maintain caution headline for the offshore waters of
volusia and brevard. There will be an increase in coverage of storms
pushing offshore this evening and overnight.

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Volkmer weitlich


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 17 mi55 min SSE 13 G 18 80°F 80°F1016.3 hPa (+1.6)
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 20 mi94 min 80°F4 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 39 mi45 min S 18 G 21 82°F 82°F1014.8 hPa75°F
SIPF1 45 mi40 min S 13 80°F 81°F1015 hPa
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 87 mi61 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Titusville, FL10 mi68 minSSE 57.00 miOvercast81°F78°F94%1014.6 hPa
Cocoa Beach, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Skid Strip, FL19 mi1.9 hrsS 1210.00 miA Few Clouds80°F75°F85%1013.8 hPa
Cocoa - Patrick Air Force Base, FL20 mi1.9 hrsSSE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F76°F88%1014.3 hPa
Orlando International Airport, FL22 mi62 minW 57.00 miRain75°F75°F100%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from TIX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------S6S6S6S15SE15
G23
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1 day ago------------------E10E10E10E710E710SE10SE10SE14--SE12SE10SE10E7E7E5
2 days ago------------------E15E10E10E10E14E12E14E15E15E15E15
G20
E15E6E10E10

Tide / Current Tables for Titusville, Indian River, Florida
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Titusville
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Mon -- 01:44 AM EDT     4.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:57 AM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:55 PM EDT     4.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:18 PM EDT     4.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.3

Tide / Current Tables for Canaveral Harbor Entrance, Florida
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Canaveral Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:02 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:36 AM EDT     4.01 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:50 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:50 PM EDT     3.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.621.10.40.10.30.91.62.53.43.943.632.11.30.70.50.71.11.72.433.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.