Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Orlando, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:32PM Saturday November 18, 2017 8:24 PM EST (01:24 UTC) Moonrise 6:48AMMoonset 6:00PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 304 Pm Est Sat Nov 18 2017
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Monday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Monday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 5 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Chance of showers.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 304 Pm Est Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis..High pressure settling over central florida will produce favorable boating conditions through mid day Sunday. Winds and seas will build once again Sunday night through Monday due to a surge of moderate to fresh northeast to east winds behind a cold front. Winds and seas will then gradually decrease through Thursday.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Thursday november 16th. 45 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 35 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 29 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 20 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 13 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orlando, FL
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location: 28.42, -81.3     debug

Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 182000
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
300 pm est Sat nov 18 2017

Tonight-Sunday... Surface high pressure ridge across central florida
will gradually sag farther across south florida with light wsw to sw
return flow developing across the northern central CWA through late
tonight. A fast moving cold front will reach the northernmost cwa
around noon-1pm, with what will likely be a narrow and weakening
band of showers along and immediately behind it. Boundary is progged
to lie across the southern cwa, somewhere between southern osceola
brevard counties and okeechobee-fort pierce by 7 pm. Tried to refine
timing of best shower chances (30-40), which will be across the
north-central CWA through mid day, with overall coverage (20 percent
chance or less) decreasing as the front reaches the southern cwa,
ending north-central late.

Mins tonight will be a degree or two either side of 60f. Maxes will
range from near 75f across the north to the l80s south.

Monday... A pleasant day is in store for Monday with the atmosphere
continuing to dry out as the cool front continues to push south of
the area. Low-level high pressure establishes itself over the
carolinas turning winds out of the east-northeast. Conditions will
be breezy during the afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens and
higher winds mix down from aloft. An isolated shower is possible
for martin county late in the day on Monday as moisture begins to
increase but have opted to leave the forecast dry for now. High
temps will be in the low to mid 70s.

Monday night and Tuesday... Low-level high pressure slides east over
the atlantic veering the low-level flow to a more southerly to
southeasterly component resulting in pretty stout moisture return.

Both the GFS and ECMWF depict a shortwave trough moving across the
gulf coast Tuesday morning and an inverted trough weak surface low
over the northeastern gulf of mexico. The weak surface low is then
forecast to move across north florida during the afternoon and
evening on Tuesday. This combined with the enhanced moisture and
impulses of shortwave energy aloft will lead to high rain chances
areawide. The best chance (70%) will be north of line from orlando
to the CAPE due to proximity of the surface low and where omega
values are quite high along with impressive upper-level divergence.

Rain chances taper off gradually farther south (but still 50-60%) as
distance from the weak surface low increases. Have also included a
slight chance for thunderstorms with temperatures at 500 mb between -
12 and -14 c.

Wednesday-Saturday... An increasingly amplified pattern will keep
conditions unsettled, though considerable uncertainty in the
synoptic details remain. Guidance generally agrees that multiple
pieces of mid upper level energy will shift down the rockies plains
and carve out the base of a larger scale trough over the gulf.

Differences emerge in the strength extent of the trough, with the
latest GFS (and to a lesser extent the ecmwf) consolidating much of
the energy into a closed low over the northeastern gulf by Thursday.

Continue to advertise pops from mid to late week as consensus
suggests multiple opportunities for precipitation, particularly on
Thursday. However, given the low predictability environment,
especially in the timing of individual synoptic features, will
continue to cap precip chances at 50%. Cloud cover will keep max
temps in the mid 70s through late in the week before a front cools
things by next weekend.

Aviation Vfr. For now, opted to leave mention of mifg br out of
the forecast except for a brief period pre-sunrise (09z-12z) @klee.

Northerly wind shift will likely reach lee-dab right around 18z, as
implied by the 20z FROPA @kmco (into the h24-30 period of their taf).

Tonight-Sunday... Light southerly flow will become sw-wsw late
tonight, with the FROPA and attendant northerly wind shift reaching
the northern and central marine legs during the afternoon.

Wave model guidance continues to run a bit high compared to buoy
obs, especially the nwps. Used a slight reduction of the wnawave
which yielded, sea around 3ft through early Sunday morning,
increasing to 3-4ft in the afternoon.

Monday-Tuesday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions as winds will
be east-northeasterly at around 20 kt offshore and 15-20 kt
nearshore. Seas of 3-5 feet nearshore will build to 5-7 feet Monday
afternoon into overnight Monday. Seas of 5-6 feet in the offshore
waters will continue to build to 7-8 feet by Tuesday morning. Winds
and seas gradually diminish through the day on Tuesday, but high
rain chances along with a few thunderstorms will keep conditions
less than favorable.

Wednesday-Thursday... Low confidence forecast in the extended as
guidance indicates multiple weak troughs or lows in vicinity of our
waters. Gentle breezes expected Wednesday before some increase on
Thursday as low pressure becomes better organized. Confidence in
wind direction remains lower than usual at this time. Seas subside
to 3-5 feet by Wednesday afternoon.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 61 75 50 71 0 40 0 0
mco 61 78 51 73 0 30 0 0
mlb 62 80 57 74 0 30 10 0
vrb 61 81 61 74 0 20 20 10
lee 62 75 48 73 0 40 0 0
sfb 61 77 51 73 0 40 0 0
orl 61 77 52 72 0 40 0 0
fpr 60 80 60 75 0 20 20 10

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term aviation... Cristaldi
mid term... Combs
long term... Ulrich
impact wx... Ulrich rodriguez

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41118 40 mi54 min 72°F2 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 59 mi44 min S 5.8 G 7.8 75°F 78°F1014.2 hPa62°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Orlando International Airport, FL1 mi31 minN 010.00 miFair66°F57°F75%1014.3 hPa
Orlando Executive Airport, FL9 mi31 minSSW 310.00 miFair70°F59°F68%1014.7 hPa
Kissimmee Gateway Airport, FL12 mi28 minN 010.00 miFair65°F59°F81%1015 hPa

Wind History from MCO (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN4CalmCalmN4N3CalmCalmN4N3N3CalmCalmN33SE4S86S8SE5S7S4S4SW3Calm
1 day agoN6N6N5N5N5N6N6N5N8N7N8N7N8N9NE6
2 days agoN12N10N12N11N9N7N10N6N7NW8N8N10N9N9N11N10N9N11NE11NE10NE11NE8NE9NE8

Tide / Current Tables for Titusville, Indian River, Florida
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Sat -- 03:39 AM EST     4.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:19 AM EST     4.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:58 PM EST     4.12 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:58 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:53 PM EST     4.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Trident Pier, Port Canaveral, Florida
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Trident Pier
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Sat -- 12:50 AM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:22 AM EST     4.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:35 PM EST     0.55 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:57 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:32 PM EST     3.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.