Saturday, August19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Aripeka, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 8:05PM Saturday August 19, 2017 7:03 AM EDT (11:03 UTC) Moonrise 3:41AMMoonset 5:34PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 840 Pm Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds around 5 knots then becoming south after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters smooth. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southwest winds around 5 knots then becoming west around 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots diminishing to around 5 knots late in the evening, then becoming northeast after midnight then becoming east toward morning. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..East winds around 5 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters smooth. Isolated Thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming southeast around 15 knots after midnight, then diminishing to 5 to 10 knots toward morning. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Monday..East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to around 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered Thunderstorms in the evening. Isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots then becoming east after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..East winds around 10 knots then becoming northwest around 5 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 840 Pm Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Synopsis..Surface high pressure will remain across the region through the weekend with light winds and slight seas. Winds are expected to increase some with easterly surges early next week as the pressure gradient tightens a bit between low pressure to the south and high pressure to the north. Otherwise, the primary marine concern will be daily scattered Thunderstorms which may produce dangerous lightning, locally stronger winds, and choppy seas.

Hourly Forecast for Marine Location Near Aripeka, FL
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location: 28.44, -82.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 190807
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
407 am edt Sat aug 19 2017

Short term (today - Sunday)
Upper level tutt low in SE gulf wrapping drier mid to upper level
air over the area to limit afternoon thunderstorm activity and
cloud cover. Expect only 20-30 pops most areas with hot temps
in the mid to upper 90s inland with high heat indices in the
105 to 108 degree range during the afternoon.

The upper low continues to move to the w-nw into the central
gulf tonight and Sunday as surface bermuda high pressure extended
from the western atlantic across the central fl peninsula and
into the eastern gulf. Increasing and deepening moisture to
advect back over the area on favorable side of weak easterly
wave and tutt to bring rain chances back into the scattered
range most areas with warm and humid summertime temps continuing.

Long term (Sunday night - Friday)
In the upper levels, a tutt low west of florida Sunday night will
drift west and away from the area through the early part of the
week, as another weaker upper level low crosses southern florida
Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure will continue
to ridge north of florida from the atlantic, supporting west to
southwest low level flow. Upper level confluence on the east side of
the tutt Monday will cause broad subsidence over the area, limiting
rain chances slightly, although abundant moisture will still allow
for scattered, mainly afternoon thunderstorms to develop. This
subsidence might also suppress convective clouds a little bit,
increasing the chances that the eclipse will be able to be viewed in
the area. However, the subsidence will not be nearly strong enough
to completely clear out the skies, and partly cloudy to mostly
cloudy skies are expected during the eclipse. The effect of the
eclipse on maximum temperatures should be fairly limited, as
temperatures this time of year tend to get up to around 90 by the
late morning hours, well before the eclipse will start. That said, a
significant amount of incoming solar radiation will get blocked
between 18z and 20z during peak heating times, so high temperatures
will likely occur a bit earlier in the day than normal, and
temperatures should hold steady or drop slightly during the peak
before rebounding in the late afternoon as full sunlight returns.

On Tuesday, somewhat drier air will move into the area, and will
limit rain chances again, mainly from around tampa bay north.

Moisture will begin to rebound on Wednesday, with more numerous
storms expected. An upper level trough will swing into the eastern
seaboard during the second half of the week, with a frontal boundary
expected to stall out north of florida, forcing the surface ridge
east and away from the area. More southerly low level flow will
allow atmospheric moisture to continue to rebound, increasing
thunderstorm chances across the area Thursday and Friday.

Aviation
ExpectVFR conditions through much of the day with drier mid to
upper levels. Isolated and vcts late this afternoon for localized
and brief restrictions possible from around 20z-00z.

Marine
Weak bermuda high pressure ridge axis remains across central fl
with weak tropical waves in the region through the weekend with
light winds and seas 2 feet or less. The pressure gradient slightly
tighten early to mid next week with easterly wind surges for slight
increase in seas with increasing rain chances. The main concern
will be dangerous lightning, locally higher winds and choppy seas
near thunderstorms.

Fire weather
Hot and humid conditions today with light winds, and afternoon
seabreezes. Rain chances increase into next week with deepening
easterly winds.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 93 80 92 78 20 10 30 30
fmy 95 77 91 77 20 20 50 30
gif 96 76 92 76 20 20 40 20
srq 92 78 92 78 10 10 30 30
bkv 94 74 94 76 30 10 30 20
spg 93 80 92 79 20 10 30 30

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Short term aviation marine fire weather... 25 davis
mid term long term decision support... 18 fleming


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 1 mi129 min ESE 1.9 G 4.1 77°F 1015.2 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 21 mi69 min SSE 5.1 G 7 79°F 1015.6 hPa
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 33 mi51 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 80°F 89°F1015.3 hPa
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 37 mi51 min ESE 1 G 1.9
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 37 mi57 min SE 1.9 G 2.9
MCYF1 38 mi45 min 89°F
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 41 mi45 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 76°F 89°F1015.3 hPa
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 47 mi51 min SSE 5.1 G 7 80°F 89°F1015.3 hPa
CLBF1 49 mi69 min ESE 1.9 G 1.9 80°F 1014.2 hPa

Wind History for Clearwater Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brooksville, Hernando County Airport, FL11 mi70 minN 01.00 miFog/Mist74°F73°F97%1015.3 hPa

Wind History from BKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3SE3SE33CalmW8NW8W7E4SE3CalmW4NW3E3CalmSE3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoE3S3S3CalmCalmNW8SE5W8NW7NE5W4W4S4S4--SE3------------CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmNW7--NW5NW6NE8NW85NW8W7W4W7W5CalmSE3CalmSE3SE3--------

Tide / Current Tables for Aripeka, Hammock Creek, Florida
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Aripeka
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:39 AM EDT     2.75 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:51 AM EDT     1.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:42 AM EDT     3.56 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:58 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.72.72.62.31.91.51.21.11.42.12.83.43.53.432.41.81.10.40-0.10.10.81.7

Tide / Current Tables for Hudson, Hudson Creek, Florida
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Hudson
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:04 AM EDT     3.09 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:26 AM EDT     1.53 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:07 AM EDT     4.00 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:33 PM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.132.72.31.81.61.61.92.53.23.843.93.42.821.10.3-0.1-0.10.311.92.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.