Saturday, March25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Conway, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 7:41PM Saturday March 25, 2017 7:37 AM EDT (11:37 UTC) Moonrise 4:46AMMoonset 4:22PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 410 Am Edt Sat Mar 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Today..East winds around 15 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday..East winds 10 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 5 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 5 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out 60 Nm- 410 Am Edt Sat Mar 25 2017
Synopsis..A high pressure ridge north of the waters will maintain an east to southeast wind flow this weekend. The ridge will gradually settle south across the waters early next week resulting in a decrease in wind speed. A moderate east swell will become the primary contribution to wave height and produce hazardous conditions near inlets especially during the outgoing tide.
Gulf stream hazards..East winds 15 to 20 knots with seas 7 to 8 feet today. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Wednesday march 22nd. 42 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 27 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 16 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Conway, FL
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location: 28.53, -81.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 250919
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
519 am edt Sat mar 25 2017

Discussion
Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue today...

High rip current threat at the atlantic beaches today...

today/tonight... Mean layer ridging stretched over the peninsula is
being squeezed by two closed lows, the first over the central plains
and the other over the bahamas. Neither of these lows are expected
to exert influence on the local weather pattern today, with high
pressure to our north maintaining e/se flow and mainly rain-free
conditions. Available moisture (pwats) remains at or below 1.00":
low enough to keep measurable precip out of the forecast, though a
few convergent bands moving in off the atlantic could lead to brief
sprinkles/light rain over a small portion of the coast into the
afternoon. Pressure gradient will slacken through the afternoon, so
not expecting it to be as breezy today. This will weaken the marine
influence and allow temps to climb a few degrees relative to Friday:
low 80s inland, upper 70s-near 80 along/east of i-95.

Combined seas of 5 to 7 feet over the nearshore waters and east
winds up to 15 mph will continue to produce choppy to rough surf
along the atlantic beaches. A high risk for rip currents also
continues today and residents/visitors are reminded to heed the
advice of lifeguards as well as beach patrol flags and signs.

Sunday... High pressure ridge to the north will nose southwest
across the area. The resulting lighter wind flow will allow both
east and west coast sea breezes to develop with a collision late
in the day on the west side of the peninsula, just west of lake
county. Aloft, a deep cut-off low over il/in will have a trough
axis extending south into the gulf of mexico. This trough axis and
assocd spoke of vorticity is forecast to weaken as it approaches
the fl peninsula but it may provide enough support to generate
isolated showers over the far interior late in the day when the
boundary collision occurs. The GFS mos pops of 40-50 percent look
too high but compromised with the much lower NAM and ecm MOS and
added 20 pop for lake county. Do not have enough confidence to add
thunder given the weak lapse rates and precip water values of
1.25 inches but this may need to be reconsidered with subsequent
model runs. Highs will be in the upper 70s coast and up to the mid
80s inland under partly cloudy skies.

Mon-fri... Weather looks rather tranquil as low level ridge settles
over the area and a weak front pushes offshore to the north wed.

As a result, rain chances will remain low through thu. With no
significant frontal passages or intrusions of cool air, high
temperatures will be above normal in the low 80s coast and mid 80s
interior. The ridge is forecast to press southeast of the area
with a warmer southerly flow developing late in the week which
could produce some upper 80s interior. 00z GFS and ECMWF show
upper trough digging over the western us early in the week then
disagree on its evolution thereafter. The GFS shows a piece of the
upper trough moving east across the deep south inducing sfc low
development along the northern gulf coast Fri while the ecmwf
lifts the trough all in one piece into the great lakes, well north
of the area. Went with a model blend of 20-30 pops on Fri (day 7)
but confidence is low.

Aviation
Continued e/ese flow will produce periods of bkn/ovc sky conditions
at fl040-fl060, with a few sprinkles and/or light rain showers
passing by the coastal terminals into the early afternoon.

Marine
Today/tonight... High pressure remains north through the period,
providing continuous e/ese flow. Expect the local pressure gradient
to relax during the day and winds to drop to around 15 knots by
early in the afternoon. Boating conditions will remain poor to
hazardous, with combined seas up to 7 feet lingering into the
afternoon. Small craft advisory for all but the nearshore volusia
waters is set to expire this afternoon (5pm).

Overnight, winds around 15 knots will keep seas up to 6 feet
offshore. Small craft should exercise caution into tonight.

Sun-wed... Sfc low pressure north of puerto rico on Sunday is
forecast to deepen as it lifts north then northeast away from the
area. This feature will deform the high pressure ridge to the
north and a piece of the ridge will shift southwest toward the
area. This will result in a decreased wind flow but seas will
remain 4-6 feet as long period east swells become the primary
contribution to wave height. This should continue to produce
hazardous conditions near inlets for small craft especially during
the outgoing tide so will probably need a caution headline but do
not foresee a small craft advisory.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Dab 79 63 79 61 / 10 10 10 10
mco 82 61 83 61 / 10 10 10 10
mlb 80 65 79 61 / 10 10 10 10
vrb 79 65 79 62 / 10 10 10 10
lee 82 61 83 62 / 10 10 20 10
sfb 81 61 82 61 / 10 10 10 10
orl 81 62 82 62 / 10 10 10 10
fpr 79 64 79 60 / 10 10 10 10

Mlb watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... None.

Am... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for
flagler beach to jupiter inlet 20-60 nm-
volusia-brevard county line to jupiter inlet 0-20 nm.

Short term/aviation... Ulrich
long term... .Kelly


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 41 mi49 min E 8 G 14 69°F 70°F1024.1 hPa
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 44 mi46 min 70°F5 ft
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 70 mi103 min E 4.1 G 6 60°F 1021.3 hPa

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Orlando Executive Airport, FL2 mi44 minE 710.00 miFair61°F57°F90%1023 hPa
Orlando International Airport, FL7 mi44 minSE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F55°F90%1022.7 hPa
Orlando, Kissimmee Municipal Airport, FL17 mi41 minE 610.00 miA Few Clouds59°F57°F93%1023.1 hPa
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL18 mi44 minN 010.00 miFair60°F57°F90%1022.8 hPa

Wind History from ORL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4NE8E15E15
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E15E15E14E16E14E9E8E6E5E5E4NE4E3E6E7
1 day agoNE6E9E14
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NE8NE8NE7E6E7E8E7E4NE5NE5
2 days agoSW8W6W11
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W103SW6E13E11N6N7NE6NE5N5N6N4N4NE6NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Titusville, Indian River, Florida
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Titusville
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:02 AM EDT     4.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:14 AM EDT     3.96 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:09 PM EDT     4.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:33 PM EDT     3.99 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
444444444444444444444444

Tide / Current Tables for Canaveral Harbor Entrance, Florida
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Canaveral Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:18 AM EDT     3.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:31 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:39 PM EDT     3.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.411.82.73.53.93.83.42.61.70.80.20.20.61.32.133.63.73.32.61.70.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.