Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fern Park, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 8:19PM Monday May 29, 2017 7:20 AM EDT (11:20 UTC) Moonrise 9:29AMMoonset 11:16PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 350 Am Edt Mon May 29 2017
Today..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 5 knots late in the morning, then becoming southeast 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period 4 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out 60 Nm- 350 Am Edt Mon May 29 2017
Synopsis..The axis of the atlantic high pressure ridge across south florida will migrate northward into central florida by mid week. Isolated storms may begin to affect the nearshore waters Tuesday evening and Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Sunday may 28th. 40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 34 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 26 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fern Park, FL
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location: 28.63, -81.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 290846
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
446 am edt Mon may 29 2017

Discussion
Hot with a moderate rip current risk this memorial day...

Rain and storm chances gradually increase this week...

today... Surface high pressure across the eastern gulf will allow for
light NW flow this morning with the atlantic high pressure ridge
strengthening into late today. The east coast sea breeze will
develop along the coast in the early afternoon and push toward the
interior in the late afternoon hours. Pwat values in the morning
from 1.2 to 1.3 inches should gradually nudge higher toward 1.5
inches as low level southeasterlies advect slightly higher moisture
levels across southern sections by late afternoon and into the
interior by this evening. For now will keep daytime period dry with
mostly sunny skies and high temperatures reaching the mid 90s for
the interior and inland portions of the coastal counties and lower
90s near the east coast. A slight east swell will combine with lower
than normal low tides to produce a moderate risk of rip currents at
east central florida beaches.

Tonight... Some of the short range high resolution model guidance and
00z GFS indicates enough moisture return below h7 to support a low
shower chance along the inland moving east coast sea breeze boundary
across the SRN interior during the evening hours. Substantial mid
level dry air will limit depth of convection so will keep convection
as a low shower chance at this time. Skies will be mostly clear to
partly cloudy past late evening with lows mainly from 70-75 degrees.

Tue... High pressure ridge aloft will exit to the east reducing the
subsidence suppression that has capped the atmosphere of late. Low
level ridge axis will slowly return northward from south florida
and there will be some increase in moisture. Forecast model
soundings show residual dry air in the mid levels will limit
rain storm chances until there is a sea breeze collision late in
the day over the interior. Then NE steering flow should bring some
of the activity back across the east coast in the evening. So
have drawn 20 percent pop for the daytime and showed higher (30
percent) pops for the evening across most of the area. Still
expecting high (cirrostratus) clouds to filter the sunshine from
time to time during the day but it will still be hot with highs
near 90 coast and mid 90s interior.

Wed-sun... The subtropical ridge axis will become established in
its typical formation across the western atlc and north central
fl. Moisture will continue to gradually increase which should
produce scattered afternoon and evening lightning storms focused
across the interior. Rain chances are forecast to increase from
30-40 percent Wed across the interior to 50-60 percent fri-sun,
with lower rain chances along the treasure coast where there will
be less chance for storms to push back to the coast. The increase
in cloud cover and rain chances will bring high temps back to
seasonable levels in the upper 80s coast and lower 90s inland.

Aviation
Some MVFR ground fog may develop from kfpr-kvrb early this morning
but should not be a significant vsby reduction. Patchy MVFR ifr
cigs will affect terminals mainly from mlb northward through 13z.

Otherwise expectVFR flying weather today at area terminals.

Marine
Today... Nw winds up to 10 knots this morning will weaken and become
onshore across the near shore waters with the afternoon sea breeze
development in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A dry day is
forecast.

Tonight... Se winds to 10-15 knots in the evening will veer to the sw
overnight. Seas around 2 ft and up to 2-3 ft well offshore. Dry
weather is expected.

Tue-fri... High pressure ridge axis will slowly migrate northward
across the area into the work week. S SE flow will generally range
from 10-15 knots, with seas 2-3 ft. Scattered storms will return
to the forecast beginning Tue evening, pushing offshore onto the
nearshore waters mainly north of sebastian inlet.

Fire weather
Today... Min rhs will drop to 33-36 percent across the interior but
duration criteria will likely not be reached. The east coast sea
breeze developing in the afternoon will move inland through the late
afternoon hours raising rh values with its passage.

Tue-thu... Mid level ridge will continue east into the atlantic and
assocd subsidence will weaken and moisture will gradually increase so
do not expect critical rh values. But the concern will shift to
isolated to scattered lightning storms igniting brush fires.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 92 72 92 71 0 10 20 30
mco 96 73 96 73 0 10 20 30
mlb 91 73 91 74 0 10 10 30
vrb 92 73 91 73 0 10 10 30
lee 95 74 95 73 0 10 20 30
sfb 96 74 95 73 0 10 20 30
orl 96 74 96 74 0 10 20 30
fpr 91 71 92 73 0 10 10 30

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term aviation... Volkmer
long term... .Kelly


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 43 mi51 min NW 7 G 12 76°F 79°F1018.8 hPa
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 46 mi30 min 76°F1 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 62 mi41 min NW 9.7 G 12 76°F 75°F1018.2 hPa74°F
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 71 mi96 min W 1.9 75°F 1017 hPa74°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Orlando Executive Airport, FL6 mi2.5 hrsNW 810.00 miOvercast77°F75°F94%1017 hPa
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL12 mi28 minWNW 410.00 miOvercast77°F72°F85%1017.3 hPa
Orlando International Airport, FL14 mi28 minNW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F73°F100%1017.4 hPa
Orlando, Kissimmee Municipal Airport, FL24 mi25 minNW 49.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F73°F97%1018.1 hPa

Wind History from ORL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6NW7NW8NW11NW9W8NW13
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W11W9W9W8W8NW7W6W7W4W6W4NW8--N4
1 day agoNW3NW6N6Calm3SW8SW7W7
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W8W10NW8W9W9W6NW4W5W7W5W5W4NW3CalmNW3
2 days agoN4NW6NW8N63W8NW11W8
G15
5NW9W4W55SE10SE5S3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW3

Tide / Current Tables for Titusville, Indian River, Florida
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Titusville
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:37 AM EDT     3.80 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:50 AM EDT     3.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:22 PM EDT     3.80 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:10 PM EDT     3.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.8

Tide / Current Tables for Ponce De Leon Inlet South, Florida (sub)
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Ponce De Leon Inlet South
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:11 AM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:11 PM EDT     3.05 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:33 PM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.43.12.41.60.70.1-0.100.61.32.12.732.92.41.60.80.1-0.3-0.30.10.81.72.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.