Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fern Park, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 5:30PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 2:32 PM EST (19:32 UTC) Moonrise 9:24AMMoonset 8:12PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 909 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
This afternoon..East winds around 15 knots diminishing to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 909 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Synopsis..A moderate to fresh onshore breeze across the local waters will gradually decrease into late day as the remnants of a cold front over south florida shifts back north into central florida. This remnant boundary will then linger across the area through mid week. Low pressure will develop along the front, over the eastern gulf of mexico, and eventually move east across florida by late week, keeping rain chances elevated through Friday.
Gulf stream hazards..East to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots and seas 6 to 7 feet into early this afternoon. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday november 20th. 45 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 33 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 28 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 20 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fern Park, FL
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location: 28.63, -81.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 211405
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
905 am est Tue nov 21 2017

Locally heavy rainfall possible along the space and treasure
coasts this morning...

Update
A quasi-stationary boundary over the treasure coast is beginning
to move slowly to the north as a warm front. Isentropic lift, a
result of veering winds above the surface, along with low-level
convergence along the boundary is aiding shower development.

Expect 4- to 6-hours of enhanced rain coverage over the space and
treasure coasts as the boundary lifts north. The combination of
the front and coastal convergence will enhance rainfall rates in
some of the showers, especially closer to the coast. Considerably
drier air over south florida, noted on water vapor imagery, will
lower rain chances from south to north this afternoon especially
over the treasure coast.

Further to the north (interstate 4 corridor), higher rain chances
are expected this afternoon as moisture from the aforementioned
front begins to interact with an incoming shortwave trough over
the eastern gulf of mexico. Enhanced lift on the ascendant side of
the mid upper level trough and from the right entrance region of
an upper jet should generate scattered to numerous showers from
mid to late afternoon, along with some deeper convection
(thunder). Most of the available guidance shows convection over
the eastern gulf dissipating by the time it reaches the coast, so
afternoon rain chances will likely come as a result of surface-
based instability. Widespread cloud cover overhead will limit this
instability, however, so confidence is lower than usual.

Have adjusted grids to account for current radar trends and the
most recent high resolution model guidance.

Aviation
Vfr ceilings between fl035-fl070 spreading north this morning,
with MVFR CIGS vsbys in showers confined mainly to the treasure
coast terminals (kvrb-ksua). Expect these showers, and perhaps a
thunderstorm, to spread north toward kmlb-ktix through early
afternoon. Additional showers and isolated tsra are expected to
develop elsewhere (kdab-klee-ksfb-kmco-kism) from mid to late
afternoon.

Rain chances are forecast to decrease after sunset (23z), however,
a lingering frontal boundary, enhanced moisture, and light winds will
allow areas of fog to develop overnight, especially over interior
aerodromes.

Marine
Today... A warm front will lift north over the waters today,
shifting winds from the east to the southeast and generating
scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. Ese
winds 15-20 knots offshore will decrease some into the afternoon
with seas slowly decreasing. Will continue SCA for sebastian to
jupiter offshore segments into the afternoon otherwise scec
conditions expected.

Tonight... A weak boundary across the waters and weakening pressure
pattern will allow winds to lighten and seas to continue to
decrease, ranging from 3-4 ft near shore to around 5 ft offshore
past midnight.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 76 62 76 64 70 40 40 50
mco 77 62 79 63 70 30 40 30
mlb 78 63 79 66 80 30 30 40
vrb 79 63 80 66 80 20 30 40
lee 75 61 77 62 60 30 40 40
sfb 77 61 78 62 70 40 40 30
orl 77 63 78 63 70 30 40 30
fpr 79 63 80 65 80 20 20 30

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for sebastian
inlet to jupiter inlet 20-60 nm-volusia-brevard county line
to sebastian inlet 20-60 nm.

Ulrich lascody


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41118 40 mi63 min 71°F4 ft
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 43 mi45 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 62 mi43 min SSE 21 G 27 73°F 77°F8 ft1014.9 hPa66°F
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 71 mi108 min SE 5.1 74°F 1017 hPa67°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Orlando Executive Airport, FL6 mi40 minE 610.00 miLight Rain71°F69°F94%1015.4 hPa
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL12 mi40 minESE 510.00 miLight Rain69°F66°F93%1015 hPa
Orlando International Airport, FL14 mi40 minESE 810.00 miLight Rain69°F68°F96%1014.9 hPa
Kissimmee Gateway Airport, FL24 mi37 minS 510.00 miLight Rain68°F66°F93%1015.4 hPa

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Last 24hrE14E14E11E8E6E7E5E5E4NE3NE6NE3NE5NE4CalmE5NE3NE4E6E8E7SE9E9E6
1 day agoW5W9SW9NW9NW7N8N15
G19
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G20
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2 days agoS5SW9S4S4S3SW3NW5W3CalmSW3CalmSW3S4SW3SW5S6SW6SW7SW13SW13SW11SW13W10NW6

Tide / Current Tables for Titusville, Indian River, Florida
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Titusville
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:19 AM EST     4.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:25 AM EST     4.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:35 PM EST     4.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:23 PM EST     4.08 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:09 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.14.14.14.14.14.14.14.14.14.14444444.14.14.14.14.14.14.14.1

Tide / Current Tables for Ponce De Leon Inlet South, Florida (sub)
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Ponce De Leon Inlet South
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:48 AM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:22 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:01 AM EST     3.23 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:16 PM EST     0.58 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:09 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:06 PM EST     2.95 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.11.40.80.40.30.61.11.82.533.23.12.61.91.30.80.60.71.11.72.32.72.92.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.