Saturday, January19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mims, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:52PM Saturday January 19, 2019 9:22 PM EST (02:22 UTC) Moonrise 4:25PMMoonset 5:36AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 347 Pm Est Sat Jan 19 2019
.small craft should exercise caution for winds this evening...
.small craft advisory for winds in effect from 10 pm est this evening through Sunday evening...
Tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Frequent higher gusts expected. Seas building to 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Rough on the intracoastal waters. Chance of offshore, fast-moving showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..West winds 20 to 25 knots and gusty. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 4 seconds. Rough on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. Rough on the intracoastal waters.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Chance of showers.
Wednesday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 347 Pm Est Sat Jan 19 2019
Synopsis..A strong cold front will cross the local atlantic waters late tonight and early Sunday, producing strong west to northwest winds and hazardous boating conditions through Sunday night. High pressure will push quickly east into the western atlantic Tuesday and winds will become onshore but remain fresh.
Gulf stream hazards..South to southwest winds will quickly increase 20 to 25 knots this evening and 25 to 30 knots overnight into Sunday with frequent gusts to gale force. Seas building 5 to 7 feet by daybreak Sunday morning. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Friday january 18th. 42 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 28 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 26 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 11 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mims, FL
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location: 28.64, -80.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 192156 cca
afdmlb
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service melbourne fl
456 pm est Sat jan 19 2019

Discussion
Widespread showers and isolated storms moving in late tonight...

Rapidly deteriorating small craft boating tonight Sunday...

Windy gusty on Sunday...

Turning sharply colder Sunday night into Monday...

current-tonight... A strong cold front, driven by a large upper
trough, will move into the fl panhandle by early this evening, then
sweep southeastward across ecfl late overnight into early sun
morning (daylight). Out ahead of this front will be a fast-moving
band (40-50 mph out of the SW or w) of widespread showers and
isolated lightning storms. Pwat values are forecast to increase in
upwards of 1.60 inches ahead of the front. Should see a lull in our
surface winds briefly this evening, but the pressure gradient
tightens later this evening and overnight as the strong front
approaches, especially after midnight. Outside of convection some
locations may see wind gusts in excess of 20 to 25 mph. Wind fields
at around 925 mb are stout with speeds approaching 40 kts. Combined
with convection moving into the area some of these winds may
potentially mix down to the surface in terms of wind gusts. Aside
from wind speeds approaching 50 mph in some storms, other threats
include torrential downpours, and occasional to frequent lightning.

The tornado threat is low.

While some cells could make it into the i-4 corridor late in the
evening, the preferred timing from short-term models is after
midnight spreading south and east of i-4 after 4am, the treasure
coast near or just after sunrise. All of the precip should be clear
of land by mid to late morning sun. Rainfall amounts look higher
across the north, up to one half inch orlando northward with lower
amounts south of orlando.

Sun... The front will be through much of the area shortly after
sunrise, then okeechobee treasure coast near mid morning. We will
likely need a lake wind advisory areawide for sustained winds 15-25
mph and frequently gusty. Early morning clouds will gradually
diminish through late morning and early afternoon as dry air
infiltrates the area. Highs will be cooler and mainly in the l-m60s
near north of i-4 and u60s to near 70 degrees in a few spots along
the space treasure coasts. Temperatures will fall late in the day
and toward sunset as cold air advection pours into the area.

Sunday evening-Tuesday... Very chilly temperatures are expected
Sunday evening into Monday morning as a much cooler and drier
airmass will continue to spill into the region behind the cold
front. Strong cold air advection and clearing skies will allow
temperatures to rapidly drop through the evening and overnight. Most
places will already be in the mid-upper 40s by late Sunday evening
with overnight lows expected to be in the mid to upper 30s
(immediate treasure coast low 40s). With winds expected to remain
between 5 and 10 mph, it will feel even colder with wind chill
values dropping into the low-mid 30s overnight Sunday into early
Monday. This may prompt a wind chill advisory for portions of east
central florida.

Plenty of sunshine for Monday thanks to dry air mass, but it will
still be pretty chilly by florida standards. Cold air advection
remains in place keeping high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s
northern areas with some lower 60s to the south. Northerly winds
around 10 mph interior 10-15 mph coast will make it feel pretty
"crisp" out.

Monday night into Tuesday, temperatures will follow a warming trend
as winds veer onshore from high pressure building in across the mid-
atlantic. Overnight lows mon. Night Tuesday morning will be in the
upper 40s low 50s along the coast and mid-upper 40s interior.

Pressure gradient is forecast to tighten on Tuesday resulting in
some breezy conditions, especially along the coast. This will bring
in marine stratocu off the atlantic and also result in an uptick in
shower activity over the coastal waters. Could see a shower or two
make it onshore but have kept shower chances along the coast below
mentionable levels due to air mass still being quite dry. High temps
will be in the upper 60s far north and low 70s elsewhere.

Extended afd... 237 pm est Sat jan 19 2019
wed-sat... On Wed surface high pressure will push eastward from the
offshore mid atlantic waters with breezy southeast flow around the
atlantic ridge. Enough low level moisture should support low shower
chance with some isolated atlc showers moving onshore and nnw across
east central fl. Deep moisture will increase Wed night into thu
morning ahead of a longwave trough approaching the ERN conus. This
will bring numerous showers and isolated storms to the area late wed
night into thu. A few strong storms will be possible thu. The
surface front will move southeast of the area Thu night into early
Friday with lingering shower chances across southern sections into
early Fri before drier air moves into the area Friday night into
sat. Highs into the mid to upper 70s wed-thu will cool behind the
front to the 60s on Friday into sat. Lows in the 60s Wed night will
drop into the 50s Thu night and 40s across much of the area for
Friday night.

Aviation Ssw to sse winds will see a brief lull in speeds
during the early evening before ramping back up ahead of an
approaching strong cold front while veering to ssw sw. Surface winds
will gradually become gusty after midnight. Have kept inherited non
convective low level wind shear at several of the northern terminals
(aft 06z). CIGS will gradually lower aft 03z with tempo MVFR ifr
restrictions as widespread shra and isold tsra push rapidly eastward
from the gulf of mexico.

On sun, convection should rapidly push off of the east coast. In its
wake a very windy day as W wnw winds increase in upwards of 20kts
with gusts 25-30kts. Lower CIGS early in the period will gradually
improve through the morning and early afternoon.

Marine Remainder of aftn-sun... Southerly winds will be on the
increase from late this afternoon through overnight ahead of an
approaching strong cold front. Winds will veer to swrly tonight and
wrly on Sun behind the weather system. Wind speeds will increase to
20-25 kts near shore with frequent higher gusts and 25-30 kts
offshore with frequent gusts to gale force. A small craft advisory
(sca) GOES into effect at 21z 4pm, but then is dropped in favor of a
gale warning at 09z 4am. Near shore waters will see an SCA for winds
begin at 03z 10pm, but will start out 4pm coastal waters forecast
issuance with cautionary statements near shore for the increasing
winds. Seas 1-2 ft near shore and 2-3 ft offshore will build
overnight to 3-5 near shore and 5-7 ft offshore. Seas continue to
build on Sun to 4-6 ft near shore (away from the coast) and 6-9 ft
offshore.

A fast-moving band of showers with isolated thunder will move off of
the volusia coast after midnight through near daybreak, the brevard
coast late in the night through just after sunrise and the treasure
coast near sunrise through mid morning. Wind gusts in excess of
35kts associated with the convection will be possible.

Monday-Tuesday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue into
Monday morning. Conditions are then expected to gradually improve
somewhat with northerly winds diminishing to around 15 kt over the
coastal waters. Seas will subside to 3-4 ft nearshore (expect 5-6
ft near the gulf stream) and 3-5 ft offshore (5-6 ft near the gulf
stream).

Winds veer to easterly on Tuesday as high pressure builds in to our
north. Pressure gradient is forecast to tighten resulting in winds
increasing to 15-20 kt south of the brevard volusia line. Speeds
are expected to be around 15 kt north. Seas will build back to 4-5
ft but could approach 6 ft near the gulf stream Tuesday afternoon
and evening.

Wed-thu... Se winds near 20 knots Wed will veer to the south wed
night and SW Thu and increase to 20-25 knots offshore. Seas 4-6 ft
nearshore and 6-7 ft offshore Wed will continue 4-6 ft nearshore
into Thu but build to 7 to 8 ft across the offshore waters as the
pressure gradient tightens ahead of the next advancing front. High
rain chances are expected late Wed night into Thu with isolated
storms bringing the chance for convective gusts above 35 knots.

Fire weather Late tonight sun... A strong cold front will bring a
good chance for rain overnight with isolated thunder into early
Sunday with blustery conditions and colder temperatures behind the
front. Southwest winds will become gusty after midnight, then post-
frontal W wnw winds will increase to 20-25 mph with frequent higher
gusts during the day increasing fire sensitivity. Drier air will
take some time to filter southward across the peninsula with
forecasted min rhs in the 40s in the afternoon.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 57 63 37 55 80 20 0 0
mco 60 64 39 59 80 30 0 0
mlb 61 69 40 61 60 50 0 0
vrb 63 70 41 62 50 60 0 0
lee 56 61 36 58 90 20 0 0
sfb 58 64 37 58 80 20 0 0
orl 60 65 39 58 80 30 0 0
fpr 62 72 41 63 40 60 0 0

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... Small craft advisory for winds from 10 pm this evening to 10 pm
est Sunday for flagler beach to volusia-brevard county line
0-20 nm-sebastian inlet to jupiter inlet 0-20 nm-volusia-
brevard county line to sebastian inlet 0-20 nm.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est Sunday for flagler beach to
volusia-brevard county line 20-60 nm-sebastian inlet to
jupiter inlet 20-60 nm-volusia-brevard county line to
sebastian inlet 20-60 nm.

Gale warning from 4 am to 10 pm est Sunday for flagler beach to
volusia-brevard county line 20-60 nm-sebastian inlet to
jupiter inlet 20-60 nm-volusia-brevard county line to
sebastian inlet 20-60 nm.

Short term aviation... Sedlock
long term impact weather... Volkmer
decision support... Ulrich
mid term... Combs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 19 mi34 min S 11 G 13 68°F 67°F1013.4 hPa
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 22 mi52 min 67°F3 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 34 mi32 min S 21 G 29 73°F 5 ft1012.5 hPa66°F
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 74 mi97 min SSE 4.1 67°F 1012 hPa59°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Titusville, FL8 mi36 minS 107.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F55°F57%1012.2 hPa
Cocoa Beach, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Skid Strip, FL17 mi26 minS 1210.00 miFair69°F63°F84%1012.1 hPa

Wind History from TIX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------S3S3S5S6S12S10S8S10SE10SE10SE10S7S7S7S10
1 day ago------------------W5W5N5N4444456E5E5E433
2 days ago------------------CalmCalmCalmN10N14N14N14N14N14N10N8N6N5N4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Titusville, Indian River, Florida
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Titusville
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Sat -- 01:58 AM EST     3.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:35 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:24 AM EST     3.86 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:24 PM EST     3.92 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:51 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:23 PM EST     3.90 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.9

Tide / Current Tables for Playalinda Beach, Florida
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Playalinda Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:34 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:00 AM EST     4.04 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:10 PM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:50 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:07 PM EST     3.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.20.81.933.843.83.12.11.10.3-0.10.10.81.72.73.53.93.72.91.90.7-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.