Sunday, November18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Lavaca, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 5:33PM Sunday November 18, 2018 10:35 AM CST (16:35 UTC) Moonrise 2:59PMMoonset 2:16AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ330 Matagorda Bay- 917 Am Cst Sun Nov 18 2018
Rest of today..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon. Showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming choppy after midnight. Isolated Thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Tuesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming smooth after midnight.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 917 Am Cst Sun Nov 18 2018
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. A slow moving cold front will approach matagorda bay late this morning and cross portions of the western coastal waters this afternoon. The front will eventually cross galveston bay this evening and the eastern waters overnight. A light onshore onshore wind will transition to north behind the front. Periods of showers and Thunderstorms will accompany the front. Another coastal low pressure system will affect the marine area Wednesday into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Lavaca, TX
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location: 28.64, -96.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Corpus Christi, TX
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Fxus64 kcrp 181214 aaa
afdcrp
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service corpus christi tx
614 am cst Sun nov 18 2018

Discussion
Updated for the 12z aviation discussion.

Aviation
Mixture of ifr MVFR CIGS this morning across south texas, but
expecting overall MVFR through the rest of the TAF period.

Shras ra currently occurring and also expected to continue through
the TAF period as a coastal trough sits along the southern texas
coast and a cold front approaches from the north today. The front
should reach vct first around 16z, then reach lrd-ali around 18z,
then push farther south reaching the coast and crp around 21z.

Gusty northerly wind will develop with the frontal passage with
gusts of 20-25kts possible. Cooler and drier air will filter in
behind the front, but scattered showers light rain will continue
through the overnight hours. Winds will begin to diminish slightly
after 00z mon.

Previous discussion issued 426 am cst Sun nov 18 2018
short term (today through Monday)...

isentropic lifting and convergence along the coast due to a
coastal trough will continue light rain and showers this morning.

Previously advertised cold front is currently approaching the
edwards plateau and northern hill country. Models seem to have a
pretty good agreement with current positioning of the front,
especially when looking at the hi-res. Timing of the boundary
reaching the northern tier of the CWA from cotulla to victoria
around 15z-16z then pushing closer to the coast and through laredo
between 18z-21z. The front should move through on the faster side
from cotulla to laredo due to being on the western side of the
coastal trough where n-n-ly wind will already prevail. Instability
is rather limited but should be sufficient enough to allow for a
few embedded thunderstorms later this morning and afternoon as the
front closes in. Greatest focus for pops remains across the
eastern cwa, especially east of i-37 where moisture is greatest,
however weak to moderate isentropic lifting out west will continue
chance pops out west.

Temperatures will be the tricky part for the day with highs
expected to occur in the morning hours prior to the fropa, cooling
through the afternoon. For now, will continue temps reaching into
the mid to upper 70s across the norther tier and in the mid 70s
across the southern tier.

The cold front will begin to meet up with the coastal trough along
the coast this evening, with greatest rain chances pushing
farther south, focusing along the coast and across the gulf
waters. Colder and drier air is prog to move into the region in
wake of the cold front, with overnight lows dipping into the
upper 40s to mid 50s.

A decrease in isentropic lifting Monday will further decrease pops
from west to east. Temps are expected to struggle to break 60
degrees as a high for Monday, especially under mostly cloudy
skies.

Marine...

weak to moderate southeast wind will transition to moderate
northeast wind tonight in wake of a cold front. Expect to see
breezy enough winds to mention small craft exercise caution for
tonight especially across the nearshore waters. Weak to moderate
northerly wind will continue through Monday. Scattered to numerous
showers are expected today through Monday ahead and behind the
cold front. A few embedded thunderstorms will be possible.

Northeast winds increase to moderate to possibly strong levels
Tuesday as coastal trough moves offshore a bit. Rain chances will
decrease on Tuesday, but then increase again on Wednesday as coastal
trough redevelops closer to the area. Upper level system and coastal
trough will move east of the area on Thursday, resulting in only a
20 to 30 percent chance of showers over the gulf waters. Moderate
northeast winds will continue on Thursday.

Long term (Monday night through Saturday)...

upper level shortwave trough will move across south central and
south texas Monday night into Tuesday morning. Rain chances will
continue over the area as this feature combines with nearby
coastal trough. Best chances will be across the coastal bend and
into the gulf waters. If coastal trough moves far enough offshore
then rain chances could be a bit lower on Monday night, but for
now will stick close to blended guidance. By Tuesday though, upper
trough shifts to the east pushing the coastal trough well
offshore. Most locations inland will remain dry Tuesday with low
pops situated over the gulf of mexico. Coastal trough will then
return heading into Wednesday as a stronger upper level system
swings through the state. Chances for showers will ramp back up on
Wednesday as lift increases associated with both the upper level
system and coastal trough. Will keep 20 pops out west with 40 pops
over the eastern brush country and coastal plains. This system
also moves quickly to the east, which will lead to mostly dry
conditions for thanksgiving day. Progressive pattern continues
towards the end of the forecast with a couple more systems to
possibly deal with. Not confident with precip chances at this
point so will keep the forecast mostly dry.

With respect to temperatures, highs will slightly rebound into
the lower and middle 60s on Tuesday. Some cooler air works into
the western parts of the area on Wednesday. Temps on Wednesday
will be in the upper 50s out west to lower and middle 60s
elsewhere. A slow moderating trend begins on thanksgiving day with
highs back into the 70s by Friday and Saturday.

Preliminary point temps pops
Corpus christi 74 53 58 51 64 70 50 40 50 10
victoria 65 49 54 47 63 80 40 40 40 10
laredo 69 52 57 51 64 30 30 20 20 10
alice 73 49 56 49 64 60 40 30 40 10
rockport 71 54 57 51 63 80 50 50 50 10
cotulla 64 49 57 48 64 40 30 20 20 10
kingsville 76 53 58 51 65 60 50 40 40 10
navy corpus 73 56 60 54 64 70 50 50 50 10

Crp watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

Cb 85... Aviation


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VCAT2 0 mi36 min E 5.1 G 5.1 62°F 57°F1021.2 hPa (+1.9)
SDRT2 - 8773037 - Seadrift, TX 17 mi36 min E 7 G 9.9 69°F 61°F1021.3 hPa (+2.0)
PCNT2 - 8773701 - Matagorda Bay; Port O'Connor, TX 17 mi36 min Calm G 2.9 65°F 60°F1021.3 hPa (+2.3)
MBET2 21 mi36 min S 12 G 13 67°F 67°F1020 hPa (+1.9)
AWRT2 30 mi36 min E 4.1 G 6 66°F 60°F1021.1 hPa (+1.5)
EMAT2 37 mi36 min ESE 7 G 8.9 64°F 59°F1021.2 hPa (+2.0)
RCPT2 - 8774770 - Rockport, TX 49 mi36 min N 4.1 G 6 66°F 1020.7 hPa (+1.6)

Wind History for Port OConnor, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Lavaca - Calhoun County Airport, TX4 mi41 minE 510.00 miOvercast68°F66°F94%1021.7 hPa
Palacios Municipal Airport, TX19 mi43 minSSE 83.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist67°F66°F100%1021.8 hPa
Victoria, Victoria Regional Airport, TX23 mi45 minE 510.00 miOvercast67°F64°F91%1021.4 hPa

Wind History from PKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8E12E10E10E10SE9E7E6E6SE7SE5SE5E3CalmE3E5E5E3NE5NE5CalmE4
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1 day ago--S4SW6SE8E8SE9SE7SE6SE3CalmE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSE3CalmSW5SE8S7SW7S5S6S5S5S5S5S5S3----Calm----------W3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Port Lavaca, Matagorda Bay, Texas
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Port Lavaca
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:16 AM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:57 AM CST     1.03 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:51 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:38 PM CST     0.82 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:59 PM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:31 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:22 PM CST     0.94 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:52 PM CST     0.84 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.80.90.9111110.90.90.80.80.80.80.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.8

Tide / Current Tables for Port O'Connor, Matagorda Bay, Texas
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Port O'Connor
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:15 AM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:05 AM CST     0.92 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:50 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:13 AM CST     0.76 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:58 PM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:57 PM CST     0.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:30 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:07 PM CST     0.75 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.80.90.90.90.90.90.90.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.70.80.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Corpus Christi, TX (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Corpus Christi, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.