Sunrise 6:57 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 2:32 PM   Moonset 3:19 AM

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GMZ330 Matagorda Bay- 158 Am Cdt Thu Apr 18 2024
Today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Patchy fog early this morning. Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to around 10 knots late. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming smooth late. Patchy fog late. Friday - Southeast winds around 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy. Patchy fog early in the morning. Friday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Saturday - Southeast winds around 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming choppy in the afternoon. Saturday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northeast around 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy, becoming smooth to slightly choppy after midnight. A chance of Thunderstorms with showers likely. Sunday - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Sunday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Monday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Monday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast around 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming smooth after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 158 Am Cdt Thu Apr 18 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
a continued onshore flow will persist into Saturday leading to the rip current risk remaining elevated. Periods of haze and fog can be anticipated though it is not expected to become dense. The next cold front and associated showers and Thunderstorms will push off the coast late Saturday night or Sunday morning followed by moderate northeast winds in its wake. Onshore winds resume during the early to middle of next week.

FXUS64 KCRP 180728 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 228 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Key Messages:

▶ Marginal Risk of Severe Thunderstorms across the Brush Country this afternoon/evening

▶ High Risk of Rip Currents extended through this evening

A couple elevated thunderstorms were observed passing through the Coastal Plains earlier this morning as a shortwave rotates through aloft. At the surface, onshore flow continues to usher moisture into the region. The 00Z KCRP sounding observed a PWAT of 1.51".
This will likely increase into the 1.7-1.8" range today. This will keep cloud cover in place through much of the short term period.
As we head through the day, a cold front will move south across the state, eventually stalling over the Hill Country. This boundary is expected to linger around Central Texas through the end of the work week. Meanwhile, another H5 shortwave will eject out of Mexico within the quasi-zonal flow aloft.

Lift associated with this wave and ample low level moisture will warrant a 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. The greatest chances will be to our north where low level convergence will be increased closer to the front. With that said, the Brush Country remains within a Marginal Risk of Severe Thunderstorms through tonight. Any storms that do develop will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Forecast soundings support this scenario with MLCAPE nearing 3500 J/kg, lapse rates around 8C, and bulk shear around 40 knots. In addition, DCAPE values range from 1000-1300 J/kg. A few recent CAM runs suggest a MCS moving south of out of the Hill Country tonight. The majority fizzle this activity out before nearing our northern counties. However, a few bring a decaying MCS into the Brush Country. Confidence is low but we will need to keep an eye on this trend. Any activity that does develop will likely diminish during the late evening hours as our upper level support exits to our east.

On Friday, the front looks to remain quasi-stationary to our north.
It will likely begin to move south once again towards the end of the short term as another shortwave across the Plains nudges it south.
There is a low chance for some patchy fog Friday morning as low level moisture continues to increase.

Lastly, went ahead and extended the High Risk of Rip Currents through this evening as buoy 19 is reporting swells around 8s with swell heights near 5ft. While some guidance is suggesting these swells to come down, it seems like it has been underdoing it recently so felt comfortable extending the high risk. There's a moderate risk tonight and Friday.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Key Messages:

-Scattered Thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday Night

-Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall Saturday

The period begins with a boundary stalled in Central Texas that will get pushed through Saturday/Saturday night due to an upper level disturbance moving into the region from the west. This will combine with PWATs around the 99th percentile for this time of year (1.7-1.9 inches). Models also depict moderate instability in place across our area in advance of the front (GFS/ECMWF).
Therefore with accompaniment of the forcing from the upper level disturbance, scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the region Saturday into Saturday night. WPC put the northern portions of the CWA in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. Given the moisture and instability it is not out of the question to get some heavier rainfall with these storms. After the passage of the boundary, conditions will begin to dry out though some moisture will linger Monday and allow a scattered chance for isolated showers along the Coastal Plains and portions of the Brush Country. A gradual warming trend will ensue after Monday high temperatures likely returning to the upper 80s to upper 90s by late next week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Poor aviation conditions can be expected overnight across most area terminals with a mixture of MVFR to IFR levels (except at LRD). A few showers and elevated thunderstorms are moving through the region this evening in response to a passing mid level disturbance.
Rain chances over area terminals however are minimal, therefore have opted for leaving it out of the TAFs for now, but a brief thundershower cannot be completely ruled out. The rain should shift eastward through the night and end by Thursday as the disturbance leaves the area. Conditions are forecast to improve Thursday afternoon with sites returning to VFR levels, before falling back to MVFR across the eastern terminals after sunset.
Winds will remain light out of the east and southeast tonight, then increase above 12 knots and briefly become gusty during the afternoon hours.

MARINE
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Patchy fog is possible along the bays and along the immediate coast this morning and again Friday morning. Otherwise, a weak to moderate onshore flow will continue as we wrap up the work week.
With that said, we will a small window this afternoon of moderate to occasionally strong flow, generally south of Port Aransas.
A weak to moderate onshore flow will persist on Saturday. An upper level disturbance, cold front, and copious moisture will contribute to scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms Saturday night. The front will move across the waters Sunday. In response, precipitation will dissipate and moderate offshore flow will develop creating Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions. Winds will transition to weak to moderate onshore areawide by late Monday and persist through the remainder of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 88 72 86 72 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 87 70 86 70 / 10 10 10 0 Laredo 98 73 96 73 / 10 10 10 10 Alice 93 71 91 71 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 81 73 83 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 98 72 93 72 / 20 20 10 10 Kingsville 90 72 89 71 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 81 73 83 73 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ345-442-443- 447.

GM...None.

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Port Lavaca
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Thu -- 04:19 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:57 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:20 PM CDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:31 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:54 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:31 PM CDT     0.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Lavaca, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Port O'Connor
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Thu -- 04:17 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:56 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM CDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:31 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:28 PM CDT     0.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:53 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port O'Connor, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

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