Tuesday, September26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cedar Key, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 7:22PM Tuesday September 26, 2017 10:34 AM EDT (14:34 UTC) Moonrise 12:06PMMoonset 11:01PM Illumination 34% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ870 Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 To 60 Nm- 953 Am Edt Tue Sep 26 2017
This afternoon..North winds around 5 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..North winds around 10 knots then becoming northwest around 5 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds around 5 knots. Seas 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Northwest winds around 5 knots. Seas 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Northwest winds around 5 knots then becoming north toward morning. Seas 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northeast winds around 5 knots then becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to around 15 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Scattered Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 953 Am Edt Tue Sep 26 2017
Synopsis..As hurricane maria continues to pull away from the region over the western atlantic ocean and high pressure remains to our north and west, we will maintain weak gradient flow with light and variable to light north/northwest winds much of the week. Dry conditions are expected through at least mid week with a gradual return of moisture and increasing rain chances Friday into the weekend. High pressure also looks to build in north of the waters over the weekend with a sustained easterly flow pattern setting up.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedar Key city, FL
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location: 28.66, -83.73     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 261416
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
1016 am edt Tue sep 26 2017

Update
With northerly flow, relatively drier air is in place and this
will help to limit convection and thus expect another dry day
across the area. Pops are confined to 10 percent or less through
the afternoon. Only minor changes were made with the forecast
update to account for hourly trends.

Prev discussion [640 am edt]
Near term [through today]
In the upper levels a ridge is over the eastern u.S. And a trough is
over the western u.S. At the surface a weak pressure gradient is
over the region. Hurricane maria is off the coast of north carolina.

Northerly flow will continue with drier air in the lower levels.

That means another dry day with pops less than 10 percent. Skies
will be mostly sunny. Highs today will be around 90.

Short term [tonight through Thursday]
The anomalously strong 500 mb ridge, currently over the northeast
conus, will be replaced by a progressive, amplifying trough by
Thursday. The weak upper low which has been cut off from the mid
latitude westerlies near or over our forecast area the past
several days will continue to meander across the northeast gulf
of mexico. However, this feature is so weak that it's unlikely to
enhance the local rain chances. At the surface, a cold front,
currently over the central plains, will extend from coastal nc
through northeast tx by late Thursday afternoon.

With little to no synoptic scale forcing for ascent, any deep moist
convection in our forecast area would have to come via mesoscale
forcing. However, the 1000-700 mb mean wind will be from the north,
keeping the northwest fl sea breeze front pinned at the coast for
much of each day. Perhaps most importantly, however, will be the
poor thermodynamics. Dry air, especially in the mid to upper
troposphere, coupled with relatively weak lapse rates, will choke
off nearly all storm-scale updrafts. The one exception could be
Thursday afternoon across our eastern zones, where slightly
increasing moisture along the incoming east coast sea breeze front
may support a shower or two. Temperatures will continue above
average for this time of year, with highs in the lower to mid 90s
and lows around 70.

Long term [Thursday night through Tuesday]
The aforementioned upper trough over the northeast CONUS will reach
peak amplitude Saturday morning, followed by rapid height rises. In
fact, 500 mb heights will once again become anomalously high early
next work week. There is a better consensus among the 00 utc nwp
model solutions than 24 hours ago; indicating that there will be no
cold front passage for our forecast area... Not even a wind shift.

Instead, a rather strong surface ridge will build southward along
the eastern CONUS coast... A common occurrence this time of year.

The upper low which has been meandering around our region the past
several days will move slowly southeast, helping to deflect deep
layer moisture to our east on Friday and Saturday. The limited
moisture and lack of focused large scale ascent across our area
will limit pops to 30% or less this weekend, mainly across our
eastern and southern zones. Despite the lack of a cold front,
temperatures will cool slightly this weekend, returning to values
much closer to climo, with lows generally in the 60s and highs in
the mid 80s. A freshening breeze on Sunday and Monday will make it
feel a little more pleasant.

Aviation [through 12z Wednesday]
Vfr conditions are expected throughout this TAF period. Winds will
be light and few clouds are expected. Showers and thunderstorms
are not expected today.

Marine
Light winds and low seas will persist into Saturday as the pressure
pattern remains very weak. However, northeast winds will likely
increase Saturday night and Sunday as a strong high pressure ridge
builds south along the u.S. East coast.

Fire weather
Low dispersion indices below 20 in the afternoon are possible in
walton county and the immediate panhandle coast. Otherwise no fire
weather concerns.

Hydrology
Organized heavy rain is not expected across our forecast area this
week, and our local rivers were below flood stage.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 91 70 93 70 93 0 0 10 0 10
panama city 86 72 89 73 90 10 0 10 0 10
dothan 90 68 92 69 92 0 0 10 0 10
albany 90 68 93 69 93 0 0 10 0 10
valdosta 89 68 92 69 92 0 0 10 0 10
cross city 90 69 92 71 92 10 0 10 0 10
apalachicola 87 72 89 73 89 0 0 10 0 10

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Update... Fieux
near term... Mcd
short term... Fournier
long term... Fournier
aviation... Mcd
marine... Fournier
fire weather... Mcd
hydrology... Fournier


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
42036 - W. TAMPA 106NM West Northwest of Tampa, FL 43 mi45 min N 5.8 G 7.8 81°F 82°F1013.8 hPa (+1.8)73°F
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 50 mi35 min ESE 7 G 8 80°F 1014.5 hPa (+1.6)70°F

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brooksville, Hernando County Airport, FL69 mi42 minESE 310.00 miFair83°F70°F65%1014.1 hPa

Wind History from BKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3Calm3E3--NW12NW7NW10NW7NW5W3NW3CalmN3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3
1 day agoNE8E7E9E8NE93NE5NE5CalmSW4NE4NE5NE4NE3CalmNE3NE5CalmN4NE4NE4E4NE5E5
2 days agoNE12E10NE8E12NE9NE6NE14
G23
NE9NE7NE8E3CalmNE5N5NE4N4N3NE5NE5NE4NE5NE6NE5NE7

Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Key, Way Key, Florida
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Cedar Key
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:28 AM EDT     3.74 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:30 PM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:04 PM EDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.82.32.93.43.73.73.42.82.11.510.70.711.522.52.82.92.82.62.21.9

Tide / Current Tables for Suwannee River entrance, Florida
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Suwannee River entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:04 AM EDT     3.16 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:42 PM EDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:50 PM EDT     2.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.82.22.733.23.12.82.41.91.51.10.90.911.41.92.32.62.72.62.321.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.