Tuesday, September26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Matagorda, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 7:15PM Tuesday September 26, 2017 7:52 AM CDT (12:52 UTC) Moonrise 11:56AMMoonset 10:51PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ350 Coastal Waters From Freeport To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 20 Nm-coastal Waters From High Island To Freeport Out 20 Nm- 346 Am Cdt Tue Sep 26 2017
Today..East winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening. A slight chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms late.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 346 Am Cdt Tue Sep 26 2017
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Light to moderate east to southeast winds along with low seas will continue through Wednesday night. Winds will become more northeasterly beginning on Thursday with the approach and eventual passage of a cold front. Caution flags might be needed behind the front.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Matagorda, TX
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location: 28.69, -95.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 261134
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
634 am cdt Tue sep 26 2017

Aviation
Taf sites areVFR early this morning with some high clouds streaming
across the area from the west. Could see a little bit of fog development
in the next hour or two. If high clouds don't interfere, some shra
development will be possible with daytime heating with the greatest
coverage this morning expected mainly out west and this afternoon along
any sea breeze boundary that moves inland. Quiet tonight with patchy
fog possible again inland areas. 42

Prev discussion issued 340 am cdt Tue sep 26 2017
discussion...

largely seasonable weather for much of the week is expected, though
some indirect impacts to our area may be seen thanks to a
potentially prolonged precipitation event far to our west over
portions of south texas and northern mexico. More significant change
looks to come at the end of the week as a front backdoors through
the area, followed by an influx of drier and slightly cooler air.

However, fans of fall weather shouldn't get too excited, as the
impact of high temperatures will be pretty modest, and more summer-
like conditions look to return early next week.

Near term [through today]...

the radar is fairly quiet across the area late tonight, though a
couple showers are present over jackson county where slight chance
pops are in place. However, the bulk of the rain in the region is
far to our west where an MCS has developed. In goes-16 IR imagery,
the coldest cloud tops on the mexican side of the us-mexico border
are as cold as -82 c as of 3am. Closer to home, observations show
some patchy fog around, mainly west of the houston metro. Expect
more of that patchy fog to crop up until shortly after dawn. A few
spots here and there could get fairly dense, as we've seen the past
few days, but don't expect any widespread dense fog.

Precipitable water looks to be near 2 inches around matagorda bay
today, decreasing up the coast to be as low as 1.5 inches around the
bolivar peninsula. With an achievable convective temp, we certainly
should expect to have some sort of shower storm development today,
with the best chances towards the southwest and where any seabreeze
will provide additional lift. We'll have to watch the behavior of
the MCS to our west carefully. Short range models suggest that the
system will persist through the day, potentially initiating a
mesoscale convective vortex (mcv), but stay well to our west.

Indeed, these models are rather dry in our area - perhaps with so
much of an upward mass flux out there, we'll see compensating
subsidence over us, overcoming the more subtle convective triggers
we'll be looking for. I did nudge pops down somewhat because of
this, but because of the environment and models' issues in handling
mcvs, i'm not ready to buy into the area being totally dry today.

Regardless, the amount of cloud and rain development doesn't seem
likely to seriously deter rising temperatures this afternoon, so go
with highs in the upper 80s to around 90. Wouldn't be surprised to
see us go even higher if we do see compensating subsidence tomorrow,
surely keeping us drier and sunnier.

Short term [tonight through Thursday]...

any convection should come to an end quickly near sundown, leading
to another generally dry night. Skies might not clear as much if we
see much in the way of blowoff debris clouds from the convective
activity to our west. Between that and humidity keeping a high
floor, expect some warm overnight lows.

More or less expect repeats Wednesday into Thursday as a weak
midlevel high looks to set up over the texas gulf coast, while mcss
either persist or renew in the border region far to our west. But,
change is on the way thanks to a surface low moving across the great
lakes region into eastern canada, trailing a long, weak cold front
that should backdoor into texas sometime on Thursday. The current
forecast shows a wind shift Thursday morning, though this front
looks fairly diffuse weak, and so precise timing might be fairly
tough to nail down for a bit yet. Of course, since this is a fairly
diffuse and weak boundary, the precise timing is also probably not
very important.

Long term [Thursday night through Tuesday]...

it takes a little more time for drier air to filter in behind this
weak front - a very subtle vort MAX looks to scoot through Friday
night Saturday morning, which may help encourage more robust
northeast flow, and hastening the decline of dewpoints into the
50s... At least inland. Between the northeast flow and a continued
weak midlevel high over the texas coastal region, think the end of
the week into the weekend should be pretty dry. Low temperatures
should be modestly cooler, but think the lack of a real shot of cold
air and increased Sun will prevent much of a hit in high temps this
weekend.

Onshore flow should resume in the vicinity of late Sunday, which
likely means the early part of next week will be much more
reminiscent of these past several days and a seasonable late
summer early fall pattern. The guidance seems fairly gung ho on
scattered to numerous showers and storms Monday and or Tuesday. But
with the guidance also pretty unanimous on ridging aloft, i'm not
ready to go that high at that range. GFS precipitable water is
progged to be near over two inches though, so will compromise with
slight chance pops that run roughly equivalent to climo. Highs in
this forecast remain in the mid to upper 80s, but I could see having
to nudge that up or down if a distinctly rainier or sunnier picture
emerges, respectively.

Marine...

light to moderate east to southeast winds along with seas in a 1 to
3 foot range will continue through Wednesday night. Winds will
become more northeasterly beginning on Thursday with the approach
and eventual passage of a cold front. This moderate northeast flow
(some caution flags might be needed) along with building seas can be
expected at the end of the week and on into the upcoming weekend.

With an anticipated prolonged northeasterly fetch on already
slightly above normal tides, some minor coastal run up issues might
develop as early as the end of the week and possibly extending into
the start of next week. 42

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 90 74 90 73 89 20 10 20 20 20
houston (iah) 90 75 90 73 90 20 10 20 20 20
galveston (gls) 88 80 88 79 87 20 10 20 20 20

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

25 42


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EMAT2 2 mi53 min ESE 8.9 G 12 82°F 84°F1010.3 hPa (+0.6)
SGNT2 15 mi53 min SE 12 G 14 82°F 83°F1010.6 hPa (+0.7)
KBQX 29 mi38 min SE 13 84°F 73°F
MBET2 30 mi53 min SSE 13 G 15 82°F 83°F1009.2 hPa (+0.5)
PCNT2 - 8773701 - Matagorda Bay; Port O'Connor, TX 32 mi53 min ESE 11 G 14 82°F 83°F1010.1 hPa (+0.7)
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 35 mi53 min E 7 G 8.9 82°F 83°F1011.6 hPa (+0.4)
VCAT2 39 mi53 min ESE 13 G 14 82°F 83°F1010.2 hPa (+0.6)
KBBF 44 mi38 min SSE 14 84°F 75°F
LUIT2 48 mi53 min SE 8.9 G 11 82°F 85°F
SDRT2 - 8773037 - Seadrift, TX 48 mi53 min E 4.1 G 6 81°F 83°F1010.4 hPa (+0.5)

Wind History for Port OConnor, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay City, Bay City Municipal Airport, TX20 mi58 minENE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F73°F100%1011.2 hPa
Palacios Municipal Airport, TX20 mi60 minE 410.00 miFair76°F73°F91%1010.6 hPa

Wind History from BYY (wind in knots)
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2 days agoNE3E4E7SE10
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Tide / Current Tables for Port O'Connor, Matagorda Bay, Texas
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Port O'Connor
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:55 AM CDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:16 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:57 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:27 PM CDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:16 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:53 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.11.21.21.21.21.21.21.21.21.110.90.90.80.70.70.60.60.70.70.80.911

Tide / Current Tables for Pass Cavallo, Texas
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Pass Cavallo
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:13 AM CDT     1.49 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:22 AM CDT     1.49 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:16 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:57 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:53 PM CDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:16 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:53 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.41.31.10.90.70.60.50.60.60.70.911.21.41.51.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.