Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Mary, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 7:18PM Monday September 25, 2017 4:47 PM EDT (20:47 UTC) Moonrise 11:05AMMoonset 10:08PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 328 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm edt this evening...
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect from 10 pm edt this evening through Tuesday evening...
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 5 knots after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 feet with a dominant period 13 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday..North winds 5 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 feet with a dominant period 12 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 feet with a dominant period 12 seconds. Smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Friday..South winds 5 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 5 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..North winds 5 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 328 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
Synopsis..Hazardous conditions for small craft operation continue early this week as large swells from hurricane maria move into the east central florida waters. SWells will gradually subside through the mid to late week.
Gulf stream hazards..SEas 9 to 11 feet north of sebastian inlet and 6 to 10 feet south of sebastian inlet through tonight. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Friday september 22nd. 40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 26 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 11 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Mary, FL
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location: 28.78, -81.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 251909
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
308 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Discussion
Rip current risk expected to remain high into mid week...

current-tonight... Dry mid level air is taking a toll on vertical
convective development with some towering cumulus along the east
coast sea breeze and lake breeze boundaries inland but have not seen
much in the way of showers today. Will lean away from the wetter gfs
and NAM into the evening and trend closer to the hrrr which has some
isolated showers at best into this evening which should dissipate
into the late evening hours. Light nw-nnw flow at the h9 layer and
dry mid levels in the wake of maria moving well away from the area
should allow skies to become mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows are
expected in the lower to mid 70s.

Tuesday... Moisture levels on Tuesday look similar to today when we
did see much convection at all with pwats ~1.7 inches. Low level
wind are forecast to be NW with fairly dry air lingering in the mid
levels. Overall should be fairly dry but will continue a slight
shower chance across the south where GFS does show some higher
moisture values and perhaps a mid level impulse in the SW wsw flow
at 500 mbs. High temps will remain warm around 90 coastal to lower
90s interior.

12z guidance did not necessitate any substantive changes to
weather pops through the mid and extended time ranges. Previous
discussion follows...

Wednesday-Thursday... Anomalously dry air filtering down the backside
of maria will keep prospects for precipitation quite low for late
september. Should any showers manage to form, they would likely
occur over southern areas where slightly better atmospheric moisture
will exist in the presence of sea lake breeze interactions. Thunder
was kept out of the forecast through Wednesday, with a slight chance
advertised Thursday as deeper moisture encroaches into the treasure
coast and okeechobee county. High temperatures will be several
degrees above their late september averages, even along the coast
where light westerly flow will warm temps to 90-91 before the sea
breeze provides some mid late afternoon relief.

Friday-Sunday... Guidance indicates a gradual uptick in moisture from
south to north late this week. At the same time, shortwave energy
aloft will try to cut off into a weak low over the peninsula,
providing both lift and instability. Will show a steady increase in
pops, initially 30-40% on Friday with higher chances across the
south, building to 50% areawide this weekend. Increased cloud cover
and developing onshore flow will drop temperatures from their mid-
week highs, still near 90 over inland areas on Friday, otherwise mid-
upper 80s expected.

Aviation
Appears any isold shra will be meager at best across east central fl
into the early evening hours.VFR conds expected through 18z Tuesday.

Marine
Tonight... Small craft advisory headlines will transition to a small
craft for hazardous seas as winds continue to decrease through the
overnight hours though large ene NE swells will continue to affect
the near shore and offshore waters. Seas up to 7-9 ft nearshore and
10-12 ft well offshore.

Tue-fri... Swells from hurricane maria will gradually subside from
mid to late week, though advisory headlines for seas greater than 7
feet will be required through at least Wednesday afternoon
(especially offshore). Winds remain at or below 10 knots, starting
from the west each morning before turning onshore near the coast as
the atlantic sea breeze develops. Abnormally dry air will keep
precipitation chances quite low through at least Thursday.

Hydrology
Single creek at campbell has fallen below action stage and a slow
fall of the creek level is expected into mid week.

A river flood warning remains in effect for the st johns river near
cocoa, above lake harney near geneva, near sanford, near deland and
at astor.

River levels remain high over the middle st johns river basin with
all forecast points above flood stage. The river stage at all
forecast points along the river will remain steady over the next
couple of days, with a very gradual decline beginning in the middle
part of this week.

Major flooding also continues above lake harney near geneva.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 72 89 72 92 0 10 10 10
mco 73 93 73 94 10 10 10 10
mlb 74 91 73 91 10 10 10 10
vrb 72 90 72 91 20 20 20 10
lee 73 91 73 94 10 10 10 10
sfb 74 93 73 95 10 10 10 10
orl 75 93 75 95 10 10 10 10
fpr 71 91 71 91 20 20 20 10

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... High surf advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for coastal
volusia county-indian river-martin-northern brevard county-
southern brevard county-st. Lucie.

Am... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for flagler
beach to volusia-brevard county line 0-20 nm-flagler beach
to volusia-brevard county line 20-60 nm-sebastian inlet to
jupiter inlet 0-20 nm-sebastian inlet to jupiter inlet 20-
60 nm-volusia-brevard county line to sebastian inlet 0-20
nm-volusia-brevard county line to sebastian inlet 20-60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas from 10 pm this evening
to midnight edt Tuesday night for flagler beach to volusia-
brevard county line 0-20 nm-sebastian inlet to jupiter
inlet 0-20 nm-volusia-brevard county line to sebastian
inlet 0-20 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas from 10 pm this evening
to 4 pm edt Wednesday for flagler beach to volusia-brevard
county line 20-60 nm-sebastian inlet to jupiter inlet 20-60
nm-volusia-brevard county line to sebastian inlet 20-60 nm.

Short mid long term... Volkmer
aviation impact weather... Glitto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 47 mi47 min NNW 8 G 11 86°F 83°F1011.7 hPa (-2.0)
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 61 mi62 min NNE 8.9 81°F 1013 hPa75°F
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 64 mi37 min N 12 G 14 82°F 84°F1011.1 hPa75°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL5 mi54 minWNW 810.00 miFair90°F68°F48%1010.1 hPa
Orlando Executive Airport, FL16 mi54 minWNW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy91°F69°F49%1010.5 hPa
Orlando International Airport, FL24 mi54 minVar 510.00 miA Few Clouds90°F64°F44%1010 hPa

Wind History from SFB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9NE10NE10NE8NE7N5N5N3N3N3NW4NW4NW4NW4NW4W4NW4N6NE74--W74NW8
1 day agoNE10NE7NE5NE7NE7E6NE4N3N3N4NE4N4NE4NE5N4N5NE7E11NE11NE10NE10NE7NE10E10
2 days agoCalmE9NE7E10E7E4NE3NE3NE4N3N4N4N5N4N5N6N7NE7NE9E12E5E16
G22
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Tide / Current Tables for Ponce Inlet, Halifax River, Florida
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Ponce Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:25 AM EDT     3.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:50 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:59 PM EDT     3.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:17 PM EDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.23.12.82.21.610.60.60.81.322.633.23.12.621.51.10.911.31.92.4

Tide / Current Tables for Ponce De Leon Inlet South, Florida (sub)
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Ponce De Leon Inlet South
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:09 AM EDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:36 AM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:43 PM EDT     3.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:03 PM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.23.12.621.40.90.60.50.91.42.12.73.13.22.92.41.81.30.90.811.422.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.