Thursday, April18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Homosassa, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 7:58PM Thursday April 18, 2019 8:40 AM EDT (12:40 UTC) Moonrise 6:21PMMoonset 5:43AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 451 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Saturday evening...
Today..Southeast winds around 15 knots then becoming south around 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots. Seas building to 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters becoming rough. A chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..South winds 20 to 25 knots then becoming west in the afternoon. Gusts around 40 knots until late afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Bay and inland waters rough. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..West winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to around 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Bay and inland waters rough. A slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..West winds around 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Saturday night..West winds around 15 knots then becoming northwest and diminishing to around 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Sunday..Northwest winds around 5 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Sunday night..North winds around 5 knots then becoming northeast around 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday..East winds around 10 knots then becoming northeast around 5 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming north around 5 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 451 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2019
Synopsis..High pressure will move east into the atlantic today as a strong cold front approaches from the west. Southeast winds around 10 knots this morning will become south to southwest and increase to around 15 knots this afternoon as the pressure gradient tighten across the area. Wind and seas will increase to 20 to 30 knots with frequent gusts to gale force later tonight through early Saturday as the cold front moves south through the waters. These increasing winds and seas will create very dangerous marine conditions on the gulf waters and all small craft operators are advised to remain in port. In addition to the increasing wind and seas widespread showers and scattered strong to severe storms will accompany the front on Friday. Drier conditions along with diminishing winds and seas are expected during the weekend and into early next week as high pressure builds in over the region.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homosassa, FL
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 28.78, -82.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus62 ktbw 181152
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
752 am edt Thu apr 18 2019

Aviation
Vfr conditions will prevail through most of the period.

Few sct sc and ci will stream in from the gulf today. Cloud
cover will be on the increase after 09z tomorrow morning as
a front approaches the area. Some MVFR conditions will be
possible toward the end of the period with more low clouds
streaming in. Winds will be out of the south-southeast at
8-12 kts with some gusts near 20 kts this afternoon, then
increasing 15-20 with higher gusts after 09z tomorrow
morning.

Prev discussion issued 422 am edt Thu apr 18 2019

Severe storms possible on Friday...

Deteriorating marine conditions late tonight into Friday...

Coastal flooding possible on Friday...

short term (today - Friday)...

upper level and surface ridging will move east into the
atlantic today with winds becoming southeast to southerly
during the day. A slow increase in moisture will occur
leading to partly cloudy skies with a few showers possible
across south-central interior zones during mid to late
afternoon, otherwise warm and increasingly humid conditions
are expected. Temperatures today will again be quite warm
with highs climbing into the upper 80s to around 90.

Tonight upper level and surface ridging will shift further
to the east into the atlantic as an amplifying upper level
trough and developing surface low moves east from the
plains into the mississippi valley. As this potent storm
system moves northeastward from the ms valley toward the
appalachians overnight a strong cold front will approach
from the west and then move south through the forecast area
on Friday with a line of strong to severe storms along and
ahead of it.

The storm prediction center has upgraded the severe risk to
a marginal risk across the northern nature coast, with a
slight risk covering the remainder of west central and
southwest florida. Model sounding data this morning remains
very similar to yesterday and continues to show strong wind
fields (45-55 knots at 850mb and 60-80 knots at 500mb) and
bulk shear values of 30 to 40 knots on the southeast side of
the approaching strong upper level trough. These strong
winds and shear combined with strong large scale lift will
support the possibility of severe storms with damaging wind
gusts along with a few tornadoes given helicity values in
the 150-200 m^2s^2 range and large curving low-level
hodographs. In addition cold temperatures aloft (-9 to -10c
at 500 mb) may support some hail as well especially with the
strongest of storms along with frequent lightning and heavy
downpours.

A blend of model guidance continues to bring a strong squall
line south into the nature coast by mid morning on Friday,
then toward the tampa bay area by late morning early
afternoon, and then across southwest florida during mid to
late afternoon. In addition to the severe threat, strong and
gusty south to southwest winds ahead of the front will
support some coastal flooding and overwash at times of high
tides during Friday afternoon along with building surf and a
high risk of rip currents developing along area beaches.

Given these expected conditions will raise a coastal flood
watch for coastal levy and citrus counties this morning
where tides of 2 to 3 feet above normal will be possible.

Further to the south along the remainder of coast, will
issue a coastal flood statement where tides of 1 to 2 feet
above normal will be possible at times of high tides during
Friday afternoon. Will also hoist a high surf advisory and a
high risk of rip currents as well. The strong and gusty
winds (20 to 25 mph with higher gusts) will create hazardous
boating conditions on area lakes and a lake wind advisory
will issued for early Friday. Temperatures on Friday will
not be a warm as today given cloud cover and rain chances
with highs topping out in the lower to mid 80s.

Mid term long term (Friday night - Wednesday)...

aloft - a deep low above the ohio valley that troughs down
over the eastern gulf of mexico Fri night slides
northeastward during the weekend and out over the atlantic
early mon. This will allow broad elongated and somewhat flat
ridging across mexico to slide out over the gulf of mexico
then build up over the southeastern states by midweek.

Surface - a cold front... Accompanying the upper
low trough... Stretching down the fl peninsular Fri night
exits to the bahamas by Sat morning as high pressure builds
into the southern plains and western gulf of mexico. This
high tracks eastward during the weekend and slips into the
atlantic mon. The center of this high continues east through
midweek while extending back across fl.

Some residual clouds and storms showers will hang around fri
night into early Sat morning but then depart with the
upper trough and front. Then the deep layer ridging moves in
with a stable air mass and limited moisture... Precluding
any rainfall until late Wed when there enough moisture
return to support a few showers. Temperatures run on the
cool side through Mon morning then slowly warm to above
normal by wed. West and northwest winds on the robust side
continue Sat but then begin to diminish and become northerly
sun.

Aviation...

vfr will prevail at all terminal sites during the next 24
hours with just some few sct CU and high level cirrus
expected. Southeast winds in the 5 to 7 knot range early
this morning will become south to southwest at 8 to 11 knots
after 15z. High clouds AOA 200 will increase and overspread
the region after 04z tonight with south to southwest winds
increasing to 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts.

Marine...

upper level and surface ridging over the region will move
east today and tonight as an amplifying upper level trough
and cold front approach from the west. As the ridge moves
east a southeast to southerly wind flow will prevail across
the gulf waters today with a weak onshore sea breeze
component developing along the coast during the afternoon.

Tonight into Friday wind and seas will increase
significantly as the gradient tightens ahead of the
aforementioned front with small craft conditions developing
late tonight into Friday. During Friday a strong cold front
will move south through the waters during the day. Strong
and gusty south to southwest winds in the 20 to 30 knot
range with gusts to gale forecast along with building seas
and strong to severe storms ahead of the front will create
some very dangerous marine conditions over the gulf waters.

The strong onshore flow and building seas will increase the
potential for some coastal flooding and overwash at times of
high tide during Friday and Friday night, as well as high
surf and a high risk of rip currents along area beaches.

Winds will shift to the west-northwest and remain strong and
quite gusty (20 to 25 knots with gusts to gale force)
Friday night into early Saturday in the wake of the front.

Improving marine conditions with diminishing winds and seas
are expected Saturday night through Monday as high pressure
builds in over the area.

Fire weather...

increasing moisture will keep humidity values above critical
levels through Friday with no red flag conditions expected.

Increasing 20 foot winds and transport winds will support
high dispersion indices across the central and northern
interior zones this afternoon and across most of the area
on Friday. Diminishing winds are expected during the
upcoming weekend. Drier air advecting into the region on
Saturday may support a few hours of critically low humidity
values below 35 percent over inland location Sunday
afternoon, but with diminishing winds and low erc's no red
flag conditions are expected at this time.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 88 73 82 63 0 20 90 30
fmy 88 73 84 65 10 20 80 70
gif 91 71 84 60 10 20 90 40
srq 86 73 81 65 0 20 90 40
bkv 91 70 84 59 0 20 90 30
spg 85 74 81 65 0 20 90 30

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk from late tonight through Sunday
morning for coastal charlotte-coastal hillsborough-
coastal lee-coastal manatee-coastal sarasota-pinellas.

Lake wind advisory from 10 am to 7 pm edt Friday for
coastal charlotte-coastal citrus-coastal hernando-
coastal hillsborough-coastal lee-coastal levy-coastal
manatee-coastal pasco-coastal sarasota-desoto-hardee-
highlands-inland charlotte-inland citrus-inland
hernando-inland hillsborough-inland lee-inland levy-
inland manatee-inland pasco-inland sarasota-pinellas-
polk-sumter.

High surf advisory from 10 am Friday to 10 pm edt Saturday
for coastal charlotte-coastal hillsborough-coastal
lee-coastal manatee-coastal sarasota-pinellas.

Coastal flood watch from late tonight through Friday
afternoon for coastal citrus-coastal levy.

Gulf waters... Small craft advisory from 3 am Friday to 8 pm edt Saturday
for coastal waters from englewood to tarpon springs
fl out 20 nm-coastal waters from tarpon springs to
suwannee river fl out 20 nm-waters from englewood to
tarpon springs fl out 20 to 60 nm-waters from tarpon
springs to suwannee river fl out 20 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory from 8 am Friday to 8 pm edt Saturday
for coastal waters from bonita beach to englewood fl
out 20 nm-waters from bonita beach to englewood fl
out 20 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory from 8 am Friday to 1 am edt Saturday
for charlotte harbor and pine island sound-tampa bay
waters.

Aviation... 74 wynn
decision support... 25 davis


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 24 mi107 min ESE 1.9 G 2.9 69°F 1015.3 hPa
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 30 mi41 min SSE 13 G 14 71°F 1015.7 hPa (-0.0)65°F
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 44 mi107 min SE 6 G 7 69°F 1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
Last
24hr
E9
E6
E7
E7
SE5
S5
G8
SW6
SW9
W10
W8
W8
NW6
NW4
NW3
N4
N4
NE5
SE17
G21
SE17
SE16
E14
SE12
SE13
G16
SE13
1 day
ago
NE8
NE9
NE12
NE11
E7
SE7
SW5
W6
NW8
G11
NW8
NW7
NW6
G9
NE5
G8
E10
E14
E10
NE9
G12
E9
NE9
NE9
E7
E7
2 days
ago
N6
G14
N7
G15
NW9
G14
NW10
G15
W9
G13
W12
W12
G19
W13
G17
W13
G18
NW10
G16
NW12
G15
NW8
G13
NW8
G14
NW9
G13
NW7
G12
NW5
G8
N6
G10
N4
G8
N3
N3
G6
N3
G6
N3
G6
N4
G7
N6
G10

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Crystal River Airport, FL10 mi46 minN 010.00 miFair63°F60°F94%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from BKV (wind in knots)
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
Last 24hrE5SE4SE76SE8E7
G14
6--SE11E6E5E5E6E7E6SE5E5E5SE6SE5SE5SE6SE5SE4
1 day agoNE7NE9NE105NE4NE6S54NE5NE4NE8E4N3E8E6E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW15
G20
NW10NW11NW9
G17
W12W12NW11
G19
W8W9
G17
NW13NW11NW7NW5N3N6N5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Tuckers Island, Homosassa River, Florida
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Tuckers Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:33 AM EDT     1.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:21 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:42 PM EDT     1.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:36 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
0.511.41.71.71.51.310.60.30.20.20.40.81.21.51.61.41.10.80.40.1-0.1-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Mangrove Pt., Crystal Bay, Florida
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (8,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.