Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Homosassa, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 8:32PM Thursday June 22, 2017 10:03 AM EDT (14:03 UTC) Moonrise 4:13AMMoonset 6:04PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 342 Am Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Today..Southeast winds around 15 knots then becoming south 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon, then becoming southwest around 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..West winds around 10 knots then becoming southwest around 5 knots late in the evening, then becoming southeast around 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms in the evening. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..Southeast winds around 15 knots then becoming south 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon, then becoming southwest late in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday night..Southwest winds around 10 knots then becoming south around 5 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..Southwest winds around 5 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Saturday night..West winds around 5 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Northeast winds around 5 knots then becoming southeast late in the morning, then becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters smooth. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..North winds around 5 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters smooth. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Monday..East winds around 5 knots then becoming southeast around 5 knots late in the morning, then becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters smooth. Scattered Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 342 Am Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Synopsis..High pressure will continue to build into the florida peninsula through the day today as tropical storm cindy gradually moves away from the region. A period of cautionary winds and seas will continue for the offshore waters through this morning with improving conditions this afternoon. From tomorrow well into next week, high pressure looks to remain poised over the region, with light south to southeast winds shifting onshore near the coast each afternoon due to the seabreeze. During this timeframe, the only marine concern will be locally gusty winds and rough seas due to scattered marine Thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening hours.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homosassa, FL
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location: 28.78, -82.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 221215
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
815 am edt Thu jun 22 2017

Aviation
Some MVFR visibilities with ifr lifr ceilings at the
terminals this morning with low clouds and patchy ground fog
in place. This will lift and dissipate by 14z, withVFR
conditions then prevailing through much of the rest of the
period. Only exception may be with scattered afternoon
thunderstorms in the 19z-02z window causing some brief MVFR
to ifr conditions. Light winds overnight.

Prev discussion issued 342 am edt Thu jun 22 2017
short term (today and Friday)...

tropical storm cindy continues to approach the northwest
gulf coast, where it will make landfall early this morning
near the louisiana texas border region. Impacts from cindy
continue to be felt well to the east of the center of the
storm, with spiral bands of thunderstorms extending across
much of the gulf coast and well inland across the
southeastern u.S. This activity will generally continue
today as the system lifts northward toward the the lower
mississippi vally region. As cindy departs, surface high
pressure will gradually build in over the florida peninsula,
establishing a southeasterly flow pattern.

For today, expect similar conditions to yesterday. Much of
the morning and early afternoon will feature partly cloudy
skies with warm and muggy conditions. By mid to late
afternoon, surface heating combined with weak convergence
along the seabreeze will allow for scattered storms to
develop. The east coast seabreeze will gradually migrate
westward, with a seabreeze collision somewhere near the i-75
corridor late afternoon. This should lead to fairly
widespread convective coverage, as has been alluded to in
recent runs of the 3km NAM and hrrr. Storms may linger into
the evening hours for points north of tampa bay, eventually
migrating offshore tonight. Gusty winds and frequent
lightning will be the main hazards with any storms.

On Friday, despite a surface pattern normally favorable for
afternoon storms, a ribbon of dry mid level air will move
over the florida peninsula. This will bring modest
subsidence to the region, suppressing afternoon
thunderstorm development. Without much in the way of rain
and thunderstorm induced outflows, temperatures will likely
be a tick or two warmer than they have of late, and expect
most areas to reach the lower 90s. Isolated activity may
develop across mainly south florida, but this appears to be
a relatively low probability at this juncture.

Mid long term (Friday night - Thursday)...

a fairly typical summertime forecast can be expected for
much of the extended forecast period. To start the weekend,
surface ridge axis will shift slightly allowing for a sse se
wind flow to become established for the weekend. Some
lingering dry mid level air will help to suppress rain
chances a bit compared to what we might expect
climatologically from this flow regime. That being said,
this will be short lived as rain chances will begin to
increase Sunday and especially into early next week as an
upper level trough begins to encroach on the northern part
of the state. This will support fairly high pops (50-70
percent) for the first half of next week. Temperatures
throughout the period will be seasonal with highs within a
few degrees of 90 for the weekend with upper 80s more likely
Tuesday - Thursday with higher cloud cover rain chances;
overnight lows generally in the middle 70s daily, maybe some
lower 70s across the nature coast late in the forecast
period.

Aviation (06z tafs)...

light east to southeast winds to persist with prevailing
vfr conditions most terminals. Klal will see brief MVFR
ceilings on and off through sunrise... With lesser chances of
brief lowered ceilings elsewhere. Winds will become more
southerly late morning into the afternoon with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms developing along the seabreeze. This
activity may affect any terminal and will maintain vcts
from 19z on. Most activity will shift north of terminals by
00z with a return toVFR conditions thereafter.

Marine...

tropical storm cindy continues to shift westward, nearing
the louisiana coast early this morning. Breezy southeast
winds and increased seas will continue to support cautionary
conditions offshore this morning. As the storm continues
west, high pressure will build in over the eastern gulf.

This will allow winds and seas to improve by midday. Over
the next several days, high pressure will extend over the
waters with light south to southeast flow each day. The
seabreeze will shift winds onshore each afternoon with
scattered marine thunderstorms possible each day in the late
afternoon and evening hours. These could result in locally
rougher seas, frequent lightning, and gusty winds.

Fire weather...

over the next several days, high pressure will extend from
the western atlantic ocean into northern and central
florida. This will maintain low level east to southeasterly
flow and abundant low level moisture. This combined with
near daily opportunities for rain will prevent and fire
weather concerns through next week.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 91 76 90 78 50 50 0 10
fmy 91 75 92 76 20 10 20 20
gif 92 74 92 75 40 30 10 10
srq 89 76 89 77 30 30 0 10
bkv 92 73 92 74 60 60 0 10
spg 89 77 91 78 30 50 0 10

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Short term aviation marine fire weather... 24 hubbard
mid term long term decision support... 13 oglesby


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 24 mi129 min ESE 5.1 G 6 77°F 1017.6 hPa
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 30 mi63 min SSE 12 G 13 80°F 1018.5 hPa (+1.3)76°F
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 44 mi69 min SSE 12 G 14 82°F 1018.6 hPa

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Crystal River Airport, FL10 mi68 minSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F77°F94%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from BKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE12
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SE12SE10SE7SE8CalmW7NW9W5N4NE4E4E6CalmE3E3SE4E3E3E4E3E4SE8
1 day agoSE10SE11
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2 days agoSE4S6SE5SE3SE5SE7S8SE3E6NE6E5E4E6E4E5E5E5E3E7E7E6E7E7SE7

Tide / Current Tables for Tuckers Island, Homosassa River, Florida
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Tuckers Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:00 AM EDT     1.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:34 AM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:43 PM EDT     2.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:27 PM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.711.110.90.80.60.50.50.60.91.31.72.12.11.91.61.10.60.2-0.1-0.3-0.3

Tide / Current Tables for Mangrove Pt., Crystal Bay, Florida
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Mangrove Pt.
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:55 AM EDT     2.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:31 AM EDT     1.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:22 PM EDT     4.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:32 PM EDT     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.32.82.92.72.41.91.51.11.11.52.233.6443.52.61.70.7-0.1-0.6-0.6-0.20.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.