Monday, October15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Homosassa, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 7:01PM Monday October 15, 2018 7:33 PM EDT (23:33 UTC) Moonrise 12:31PMMoonset 11:14PM Illumination 39% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 327 Pm Edt Mon Oct 15 2018
Tonight..Northeast winds around 10 knots then becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..Southeast winds around 10 knots then becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday night..North winds around 10 knots then becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..Southeast winds around 5 knots then becoming northwest around 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday night..North winds around 10 knots then becoming east after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to around 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday..East winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday night..East winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South winds around 10 knots then becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 327 Pm Edt Mon Oct 15 2018
Synopsis..Surface ridge of high pressure positioned north of the coastal waters will produce a prevailing light to moderate east and southeast flow...with afternoon sea breezes and evening surges expected through the period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homosassa, FL
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location: 28.78, -82.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 151832
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
232 pm edt Mon oct 15 2018

Short term (tonight - Tuesday)
The upper wave pattern will feature a low pressure system closing
off over the desert SW and four corners region with a subtropical
ridge positioned over the gulf of mexico and southeast u.S. With a
trough deepening over the great lakes and new england. For west-
central and southwest florida, increasing moisture depth
will gradually lead to more afternoon cumulus. The surface
ridge axis positioned north of the peninsula will maintain a
southeast-east flow across the region tonight and Tuesday.

Above normal MAX min temperatures to continue during the
period.

Long term (Tuesday night - Monday)
A positively tilted upper level trough and closed low from the four
corners region extending northeast to the great lakes an
northeastern states will maintain downstream mid upper level ridging
across the gulf and florida through the period as a frontal boundary
stalls out across the northern gulf coast through Wednesday. At the
surface high pressure over the atlantic with the ridge axis north of
the area will continue to support an east-southeast wind flow over
the forecast area with a weak onshore sea breeze component
developing along the coast each afternoon. Dry air aloft and
subsidence from the upper ridge should keep rain chances on the low
side (pops 20 to 30 percent) through Wednesday with only isolated to
widely scattered showers or storms expected, otherwise hot and humid
conditions under partly cloudy skies will be the rule.

During Thursday and Friday a back-door type front will move into the
north-central peninsula as strong surface high pressure builds
toward the mid atlantic coast. With the front sinking into the
region and the high to the north bridging across it a breezy
northeast to easterly wind flow will develop across the region as
the pressure gradient tighten some. Moisture accompanying this front
will support increasing rain chances (pops in the 40 to 60 percent
range) across the forecast area, especially across the nature coast
closest to the front where scattered to numerous showers and
isolated storms can be expected, while lower rain chances (pops 20
to 40 percent) will reside across southwest florida.

During Friday night into Saturday the front to the north or its
remnants will wash out as some slightly drier air temporarily moves
in from the south with lower rain chances (pops 20 to 30 percent)
expected on Saturday. On Sunday models continue to advertise a
stronger cold front approaching from the north and moving into the
forecast area during Sunday afternoon and night as a strong upper
level trough pushes east-southeast toward the mid atlantic coast.

Sufficient moisture accompanying this next front should lead to some
scattered showers and isolated storms over the region through the
period as the front moves into and eventually stalls out across the
south-central peninsula on Monday as it becomes parallel to the
upper level flow. High pressure building quickly toward the mid
atlantic coast on Monday will bridge across the front and produce a
breezy northeast to easterly wind flow across the forecast area as
the gradient tightens.

Temperatures will remain well above normal through late in the week
with some near record highs possible. Overnight lows will range from
the lower to mid 70s over inland areas, to the mid and upper 70s
along the coast with daytime highs climbing into the upper 80s to
lower 90s each afternoon. During late in the weekend and into early
next week temperatures are forecast to drop back to seasonal levels
as some cooler drier air advects into the area in the wake of the
front.

Aviation
East and southeast flow will prevail across the terminals this
afternoon and this evening becoming light overnight into Tuesday
morning.VFR conditions expected across most terminals with some
possibility of MVFR vsby cig around sunrise with increasing dew
points and light flow generating some patchy ground mist around lal
and rsw-fmy.

Marine
Surface ridge axis positioned over the mid atlantic region will
maintain a prevailing southeast and east flow across the area. Weak
sea breeze circulations will generate a variable onshore wind along
the immediate coast and bays during the afternoon and evening.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected over
the coastal waters each day starting Wednesday as additional
moisture moves into the area and the ridge axis gradually shifts
south over the peninsual as a trough of low pressure pushes off the
eastern u.S.

Fire weather
There are no fire weather concerns as moisture and relative humidity
will remain well above critical levels through the period.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 76 90 75 91 10 0 0 10
fmy 76 91 76 91 20 30 20 40
gif 75 90 74 92 10 0 0 10
srq 76 89 76 89 10 0 20 30
bkv 74 90 72 92 10 0 10 10
spg 77 90 77 90 10 0 10 10

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Short term aviation marine fire weather... 10 lamarre
long term decision support... 57 mcmichael
upper air public service... 19 hurt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 24 mi99 min NW 2.9 G 5.1 87°F 1017.6 hPa
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 30 mi33 min NW 2.9 G 6 82°F 1018.2 hPa (+0.3)75°F
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 44 mi99 min N 8 G 8.9 84°F 1018.1 hPa

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Crystal River Airport, FL10 mi38 minW 310.00 miFair82°F71°F70%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from BKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7NE6E6E5E6E3CalmE3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmE4E4E4E65E5--SE4NE3E4N3
1 day agoCalmCalmNE5E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmE5SE7SE10E7E6Calm--NE7E7E5NE3
2 days agoNW5NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmNE4NE5NE75N45NE6N9NE6N6E4

Tide / Current Tables for Tuckers Island, Homosassa River, Florida
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Tuckers Island
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Mon -- 01:08 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:01 AM EDT     1.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:39 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:57 PM EDT     0.95 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.60.60.70.91.11.41.71.81.71.41.10.70.50.30.10.10.20.40.60.90.90.90.7

Tide / Current Tables for Mangrove Pt., Crystal Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.