Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Victoria, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:35PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 8:42 AM CST (14:42 UTC) Moonrise 2:41PMMoonset 2:51AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ330 Matagorda Bay- 641 Am Cst Tue Dec 18 2018
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 am cst this morning...
Today..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Patchy dense fog with visibility 1 nm or less in the morning. A slight chance of showers in the late morning and afternoon.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters smooth becoming slightly choppy after midnight.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy becoming rough in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming smooth in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Saturday..South winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 641 Am Cst Tue Dec 18 2018
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Patchy dense fog this morning should clear out during the day as east winds develop. A low pressure system with a weak cold front will move through the area on Wednesday with showers and perhaps a few Thunderstorms. A stronger surge of cold air and much stronger winds near gale force arrives early Thursday morning. Persistent strong northwest winds expected Thursday into Friday afternoon. A gale watch may be needed along with low water advisories.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Victoria, TX
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location: 28.81, -96.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Corpus Christi, TX
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Fxus64 kcrp 181142
afdcrp
area forecast discussion
national weather service corpus christi tx
542 am cst Tue dec 18 2018

Discussion
Note aviation discussion below corresponding to the 12z tafs.

Aviation
Lifr visibilities ceilings early this morning. A mixture of
vfr MVFR by mid morning. PredominateVFR this afternoon with
isolated MVFR near isolated showers mainly north of u.S. 181.

Tonight, a transition to MVFR ifr conditions with isolated to
scattered showers mainly over the coastal bend victoria
crossroads.

Previous discussion issued 422 am cst Tue dec 18 2018
short term (today through Wednesday)...

areas to widespread dense fog early this morning owing to near
surface saturation dry immediately aloft light wind will dissipate
by mid morning. Expect synoptic scale lift associated with an
upper level disturbance over the region today through early
Wednesday (gfs nam ECMWF deterministic.) the NAM deterministic
predicts pwat values to increase today to above normal over the
ern cwa. Expect the combination of upper forcing moisture to
contribute to isolated shower activity over mainly the nern cwa
this afternoon through early Wednesday. Drier conditions Wednesday
afternoon as the upper system moves east.

Long term (Wednesday night through Monday)...

upper level trough will be shifting to the mississippi river valley
by the beginning of the long term period. As it shifts eastward, a
strong vort MAX will work to deepen the trough and help to keep a
northwesterly flow patter over south texas through Friday. At the
surface, reinforcing high pressure ridge moves southward into the
region increasing surface winds. LLJ increases to 40 to 50 knots
mainly for northeast and eastern portions of the area. Momentum
transfer indicates potential for wind gusts 30 to 40 mph. At this
point not looking quite as strong as last week, but expect gusty
winds, none the less. As these winds move over the waters, will
likely see strong winds to potentially gales develop. Ridge axis
moves across the region Thursday night into Friday with weakening
winds. Very dry air will be in place over the area Thursday and
Friday. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Thursday,
mainly over eastern portions of the area where strongest winds will
be.

Things get a bit more complicated over the weekend and into next
week. Onshore flow will redevelop on Saturday and begin moisture
return into the area. At the same time, another weaker cold front
will be moving through north texas toward the region. There are
differences in model guidance, as you'd expect this far out. Gfs
brings a front near the coast by Sunday while the ECMWF is slower
with a front not until Monday. Either way, without much forcing, a
front is expected to stall in the area early by late in the weekend
or early next week. This will allow a focus for showers to develop.

Moisture still rather limited through Monday, so will maintain just
slight chance pops for that period. If the front lingers into
Tuesday... Which models are hinting at, could be a rainy christmas
day with moisture pooling increasing in eastern portions of cwa.

Temperature forecast rather benign despite the active pattern. High
temperatures only cool into the 60s for Thursday and Friday with
warmer temperatures likely for the weekend. Low temperatures Friday
morning will be the coolest for the period with some upper 30s
possible northwest, but mainly lower to mid 40s for the rest of the
area.

Marine...

expect a coastal trough to contribute to isolated showers this
afternoon. Anticipate that an upper level disturbance will
contribute to isolated scattered showers tonight through early
Wednesday. Strong northwesterly flow will develop Thursday as
high pressure settles into the area. Confidence is increasing in
potential for another gale event Thursday into Friday. Still a
little too far out to issue a gale watch, but unless things change
significantly, would expect one to be issued later today or
tonight at least for portions of the area. The best chance for
sustained gales will be northern zones (port a to matagorda bay),
and better the farther east you go. Offshore flow will gradually
decrease on Friday as the ridge axis slides over the region, with
onshore flow returning by Saturday.

Preliminary point temps pops
Corpus christi 70 54 74 51 70 10 20 10 10 0
victoria 68 53 71 50 66 20 30 20 10 0
laredo 70 50 77 49 70 10 10 10 0 0
alice 71 52 76 50 71 10 10 10 10 0
rockport 67 55 71 52 68 20 30 10 10 0
cotulla 68 49 74 47 68 10 10 10 0 0
kingsville 72 53 77 51 71 10 10 10 10 0
navy corpus 68 57 72 55 69 20 20 10 10 0

Crp watches warnings advisories
Tx... Dense fog advisory until 9 am cst this morning for the following
zones: bee... Duval... Goliad... Inland calhoun... Inland
kleberg... Inland nueces... Inland refugio... Inland san
patricio... Jim wells... La salle... Live oak... Mcmullen...

victoria... Webb.

Gm... None.

Wc 87... Aviation


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VCAT2 23 mi43 min NE 5.1 G 6 53°F 56°F1018.9 hPa (+0.4)
SDRT2 - 8773037 - Seadrift, TX 32 mi49 min NNE 6 G 7 51°F 58°F1018.9 hPa
PCNT2 - 8773701 - Matagorda Bay; Port O'Connor, TX 40 mi49 min NE 8.9 G 9.9 56°F 58°F1018.4 hPa
AWRT2 42 mi49 min NE 7 G 8.9 56°F 58°F1018.6 hPa
MBET2 44 mi49 min ENE 7 G 8.9 57°F 64°F1017.4 hPa

Wind History for Seadrift, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Victoria, Victoria Regional Airport, TX5 mi52 minNNE 30.25 miFog46°F45°F96%1019.3 hPa
Port Lavaca - Calhoun County Airport, TX20 mi48 minNE 40.15 miFog50°F49°F97%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from VCT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSE4SW4SW5CalmCalmE5E8SE7SE5SE5S5S4CalmN4CalmN4N3N4CalmNE4NE3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmN4CalmNE3N4CalmNE3NE5CalmSE3CalmS5S4S5W3NW6W4CalmE3CalmCalmN4
2 days agoNW11NW12NW9NW13NW10N12N12N9NW7NW6W5W4NW6W7NW8NW6W4W5NW5NW5N4NW3N3NE4

Tide / Current Tables for Port Lavaca, Matagorda Bay, Texas
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Port Lavaca
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:49 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:13 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:27 AM CST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:40 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:32 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:25 PM CST     0.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.60.60.60.50.50.40.30.30.20.10.10.10.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.70.70.70.7

Tide / Current Tables for Port O'Connor, Matagorda Bay, Texas
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Port O'Connor
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:48 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:12 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:19 AM CST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:39 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:32 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:29 PM CST     0.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Corpus Christi, TX (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Corpus Christi, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.