Thursday, August24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Hill, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:54PM Thursday August 24, 2017 6:34 AM EDT (10:34 UTC) Moonrise 8:42AMMoonset 9:01PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ570 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 20-60 Nm- 415 Am Edt Thu Aug 24 2017
Today..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 11 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast in the afternoon. Seas 3 feet. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 6 to 7 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 415 Am Edt Thu Aug 24 2017
Synopsis..Deep tropical moisture and higher than normal rain chances will continue across the area through upcoming weekend. A weak area of low pressure may develop over or near central florida on Friday and move slowly northeast across the western atlantic into early next week.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Thursday august 24th. 42 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 16 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Hill, FL
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location: 28.9, -80.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 240805 aaa
afdmlb
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service melbourne fl
405 am edt Thu aug 24 2017

Discussion
Today... The remnants of the tropical wave axis that moved westward
across the area yesterday will continue to influence today's weather
as a weak low in the low levels off the SW fl coast will continue to
advect tropical moisture northward toward southern portions of east
central fl into the afternoon hours. Low level sse flow should focus
scattered showers along the treasure coast this morning and then
spreading inland into the interior and northern interior into late
afternoon with scattered storms developing with daytime heating. Mid
level temps remain rather warm with h7 temps around 10 c and h5
temps between -5.5 to -6.5 c. The other limiting factors will be
considerable upper level cirrus with NW flow aloft and some NVA at
h5 across far NRN sections. There will be some lift with PVA across
the far south however with a weak mid level low at h5 across far srn
fl and the keys this morning. Will range pops from the scattered
range north to likely range SRN sections where deeper moisture
resides and some mid level lift should provide enhancement by mid to
late afternoon with showers and storms lifting north toward the
treasure coast. There will be a threat for locally heavy rain with
any storms that develop mainly across SRN areas and the interior
today. Highs wil be in the lower 90s NRN areas to near 90 to the
upper 80s for okeechobee county and the treasure coast. An east
swell will continue a moderate risk for rip currents at east central
fl beaches.

Tonight... A cyclonic circulation low at h9-h8 will move from tampa
toward orlando overnight and focus low-mid level southwest flow
across southern sections in an area of deep moisture. This should
allow for a chance of showers and storms from okeechobee toward the
treasure coast through the overnight hours. Will continue some low
pops across NRN sections into late evening with a slight chance of a
shower or thunderstorm but this activity should diminish by late
evening. Lows mainly in the mid 70s.

Fri-sat... T-wave just off the west fl coast will dvlp a weak sfc low
lvl circulation while a frontal trof over the deep south mid atlc
erodes the WRN flank of the bermuda ridge. As the ridge breaks down,
the gulf low will push acrs central fl on fri, exiting into the atlc
in the vcnty of CAPE canaveral by daybreak sat. While the low will
be tropical in nature, interaction with land makes it highly
unlikely that it will dvlpg into an organized tropical system. Even
so, deep tropical moisture will pool within the trof, keeping pwat
values will into the 2.00"-2.25" range, with portions of the
treasure coast approaching 2.50".

Mid lvl temps will be quite warm with h70 hovering arnd 10c and h50
arnd -5c, quite normal for a tropical airmass, yielding h70-h50
lapse rates btwn 5.5-6.0c km. Model soundings indicate CAPE values
generally btwn 1000-2000 j kg, suggesting instability will be high
enough to generate tsras... But not high enough for a significant svr
wx threat. Flooding continues as the primary threat due to prolonged
pds of heavy rain... ESP over the treasure coast lake-o region where
hpc 3-day QPF charts indicating 2.00-3.00" possible. 3-day qpf
diminishes to 0.50"-0.75" along and north of the i-4 corridor, as
northerly h100-h70 flow on the north side of the low will serve to
temper tropical moisture advection.

Highest pops over the treasure coast lake-o region, but all counties
will be painted with likely pops thru sat. Extensive cloud cover and
rain cooled air will keep MAX temps in the m80s l90s... Min temps in
the m u70s.

Sun-wed... Gfs ECMWF models continue to disagree with the eventual
fate of the tropical low aft 00z mon: GFS continues to kick the
system up the carolina coast by 12z Mon as a well developed tropical
system, while ECMWF sticks with its slower, broader sfc low
meandering off the NE fl coast before lifting it NE aft 12z tue.

They do, however, indicate a sfc low lvl trof extending SW from the
storm center acrs central fl, suggesting the unsettled wx pattern
will continue at least into early next week. They also are in much
better agreement wrt newly regenerated t.S. Harvey, keeping it over
the tx coast lwr ms valley thru the middle of next week. This
suggests any direct impact on central fl unlikely thru that time
frame.

Will keep no less than 50pct pops in the fcst thru wed, with likely
pops areawide on sun. MAX temps with a few deg of avg (u80s l90s),
min temps a few deg abv avg (m u70s).

Aviation
Sct shra tsra should develop from kvrb-ksua this morning and then
move toward the interior terminals into mid to late afternoon.

Highest convective chance for interior terminals including kmco
should occur from 20z-24z today. Could see another round of
shra tsra lifting northward twd ksua-fpr by late afternoon early
evening from south fl. Highest overnight convective chances thu
night will occur from ksua-kvrb with deep moisture and SW low lvl
flow above the sfc. Convection should diminish by late evening north
of a kism-ktix line.

Marine
Today... Se sse flow to 10-15 knots expected today with seas 2-3 ft
near shore and up to 3-4 ft offshore. Higher shower thunderstorm
chances expected from CAPE canaveral south to jupiter inlet today.

Tonight... Se-s winds to 10-15 knots will veer to the s-sw overnight.

Expect a high coverage of showers storms across the SRN waters
through the late night hours.

Fri-fri night... Variable winds as the t-wave over the WRN gomex
dvlps a weak sfc circulation and transits central fl into the atlc.

Gentle to moderate S SE at daybreak, bcmg moderate to fresh S sw
south of CAPE canaveral by late aftn, then a gentle to moderate E ne
breeze from the CAPE northward overnight. Seas 2-3ft thru the day,
building to 3-4ft overnight. Sct nmrs shras and t-storms.

Sat-sat night... Variable winds continue as the center of the low
drifts off the east fl coast north of the cape. Winds south of the
circulation center will be a gentle to moderate S SW breeze, backing
to the E NE on its north side. Seas 2-3ft thru the day, building to
4-5ft from the CAPE northward as winds freshen out of the NE on the
backside of the low. Nmrs shras chc t-storms.

Sun-mon... Circulation will meander off the east fl coast to start
the week. Gentle to moderate N NE breeze from sebastian inlet
northward, backing to a light to gentle W SW breeze off the treasure
coast. North of the cape, seas 4-6ft thru the day sun, building to 5-
7ft Sun night... Then gradually subsiding to 4-5ft aft sunset mon.

South of the cape, seas 2-3ft at daybreak sun, building to 3-4ft by
sunset sun, then 3-5ft by daybreak mon.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 91 76 88 78 30 10 50 30
mco 92 75 92 77 50 10 60 30
mlb 90 75 87 76 50 30 60 40
vrb 90 74 87 76 70 40 70 50
lee 94 77 94 77 50 10 50 30
sfb 93 76 92 77 40 10 60 30
orl 92 77 93 77 50 10 60 30
fpr 89 74 87 76 70 40 70 50

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term aviation... Volkmer
long term impact wx... Bragaw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 36 mi47 min SSW 6 G 8 81°F 86°F1013.4 hPa
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 39 mi44 min 85°F2 ft
41116 44 mi65 min 83°F3 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 45 mi35 min S 5.8 G 7.8 83°F 83°F1013 hPa (-0.0)78°F
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 56 mi110 min Calm 77°F 1014 hPa75°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL22 mi42 minN 010.00 miFair77°F73°F90%1011.7 hPa
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL22 mi42 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds77°F75°F96%1011.9 hPa

Wind History from EVB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------CalmCalmCalmCalmNE5NE7NE9NE9NE9NE11NE11E8E7E7E7SE7
1 day ago----------------CalmCalmCalmE9E7E7E7E7NE10NE10NE9NE9NE10NE10NE10NE10
2 days ago----------------Calm--E7E8SE9E10E15E10E10E10E10E10SE10SE8CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Ponce De Leon Inlet South, Florida (sub)
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Ponce De Leon Inlet South
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:01 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:06 AM EDT     3.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:23 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:01 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:25 PM EDT     3.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.12.41.60.70.2-00.20.81.62.43.13.43.22.71.91.10.40.10.20.71.42.22.93.3

Tide / Current Tables for Ponce Inlet, Halifax River, Florida
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Ponce Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:15 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:22 AM EDT     3.43 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:37 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:01 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:41 PM EDT     3.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.32.61.80.90.3-00.10.71.42.333.43.32.92.11.30.60.10.10.51.222.73.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.