Wednesday, October17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Crystal River, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 6:59PM Wednesday October 17, 2018 5:49 AM EDT (09:49 UTC) Moonrise 2:03PMMoonset 12:04AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 414 Am Edt Wed Oct 17 2018
Today..Southeast winds around 10 knots then becoming northwest around 5 knots early in the afternoon, then increasing to around 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..North winds around 10 knots then becoming east after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to around 15 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds around 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to around 15 knots late in the evening, then becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds around 10 knots then becoming west late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming north around 15 knots toward morning. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 414 Am Edt Wed Oct 17 2018
Synopsis..High pressure will remain generally northeast of the area through the next couple of days, with a southeast to east flow in place over the waters. A relatively weak afternoon sea breeze will form each day, with winds turning onshore near the coast. A few showers will be possible near the coast during the late afternoon/early evening.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crystal River, FL
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location: 28.91, -82.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 170750
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
350 am edt Wed oct 17 2018

Short term (today - Thursday)
Mid level ridging centered just east of florida will keep
warm and fairly stable conditions in place today and
Thursday, with afternoon high temperatures approaching
record values again this afternoon. As the ridge gradually
weakens on Thursday, temperatures will moderate slightly,
but will still remain several degrees above normal,
generally topping out around 90.

At the surface, the subtropical ridge north of florida will
slip farther east into the atlantic as a stronger area of
high pressure builds in from the northwest. This will keep
generally easterly winds in place, with an afternoon sea
breeze turning winds onshore near the coast. Subsidence from
the ridging aloft will keep rain chances minimal, although
some areas could see isolated to scattered showers and
storms developing this afternoon. A backdoor cold front
moving into florida from the northeast on Thursday will
wash out north of the area, but will allow for slightly
higher rain chances north of interstate 4.

Long term (Thursday night - Tuesday)
A large upper mid level trough will dig into the eastern
conus during the second half of the week, displacing mid
level ridging to the south. At the surface, broad high
pressure across the eastern us will gradually shift east
into the atlantic through the weekend, allowing generally
easterly winds to continue. As the mid level trough swings
through the eastern seaboard during the weekend, a
weakening cold front will move south through the florida
peninsula Saturday night and Sunday, before low level winds
quickly turn back to easterly and northeasterly by Sunday
night, limiting the amount of cold air advection possible.

Still, temperatures are forecast to drop to near to slightly
below normal Sunday over the northern and central portions
of the forecast area, before quickly moderating again early
next week. Otherwise, dry and stable air behind the front
will keep rain chances minimal on Monday.

On Tuesday, the GFS is showing an area of low pressure
developing over the gulf and moving east across the florida
peninsula, leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the area. The ECMWF is considerably slower with this
feature however, keeping the forecast area mostly dry on
Tuesday. For the time being, a blend of the two solutions
was used for rain chances, but this feature will need to
continue to be closely monitored until the models come into
better agreement.

Aviation
GenerallyVFR conditions are expected to hold through the
morning hours, although some patchy ground fog cannot be
ruled out around klal, kpgd, kfmy, and krsw around sunrise,
producing MVFR or brief ifr visibilities. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms will be possible during the
afternoon, mainly around kpgd, kfmy, and krsw.

Marine
High pressure will hold just north of the gulf of mexico
through the week, with generally easterly winds continuing
across the coastal waters. A weak afternoon seabreeze will
setup each day, allowing winds to turn onshore near the
coast. A tighter pressure gradient Thursday night will allow
winds to increase to cautionary or perhaps low end advisory
levels, before subsiding again Friday and Saturday.

Fire weather
No concerns, as humidity will remain well above critical
levels through the period.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 91 74 90 74 10 10 10 10
fmy 91 75 90 74 40 10 20 10
gif 93 73 90 73 10 0 20 20
srq 89 74 89 75 20 10 10 10
bkv 92 72 90 72 10 10 20 10
spg 91 76 89 75 10 10 10 10

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

18 fleming


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 26 mi49 min SE 7 G 8 81°F 1019.4 hPa (+0.0)74°F
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 33 mi115 min ENE 1 G 1.9 78°F 1018.9 hPa

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Crystal River Airport, FL5 mi54 minN 010.00 miFair72°F71°F100%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from OCF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN3SE5SE546S6CalmS4S5S5S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--S3S3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmN3CalmCalm33454CalmCalmCalmCalm4E5Calm33CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmN3Calm35E6NE436E5544343NE3Calm3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Twin Rivers Marina, Crystal River, Florida
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Twin Rivers Marina
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:54 AM EDT     1.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:47 AM EDT     2.06 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:43 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:57 PM EDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.11.11.11.11.11.31.51.822.11.91.61.41.10.90.70.50.50.60.91.11.31.4

Tide / Current Tables for Ozello, St. Martin's River, Florida
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Ozello
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:28 AM EDT     0.34 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:54 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:54 PM EDT     0.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:04 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.