Saturday, December16, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Venice, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 5:04PM Saturday December 16, 2017 6:23 PM CST (00:23 UTC) Moonrise 6:10AMMoonset 5:13PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ552 Coastal Waters From Port Fourchon La To Lower Atchafalaya River La Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From The Southwest Pass Of The Mississippi River To Port Fourchon Louisiana Out 20 Mile- 338 Pm Cst Sat Dec 16 2017
.small craft exercise caution in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the late evening and overnight.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Patchy fog after midnight.
Monday..Southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Slight chance of showers through the night. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Chance of showers.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Chance of showers in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Showers likely after midnight.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds.
Thursday..Northwest winds near 5 knots becoming southeast in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 338 Pm Cst Sat Dec 16 2017
Synopsis..A warm frontal boundary will move north into the central gulf coast region tonight as an area of low pressure continues to develop near the northwest gulf coast. A front will then stall over the gulf states Sunday through Tuesday. An area of low pressure is expected to move east across the central gulf coast region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning which should push a weak cold front into the coastal waters on Wednesday. High pressure will then move east again Wednesday night into Thursday as another stronger cold front approaches the southern plains.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Venice, LA
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location: 28.94, -89.4     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 162112
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
312 pm cst Sat dec 16 2017

Discussion
Not much change in thinking since previous forecast. Active
pattern looks to take hold of the area tomorrow as a cold front
moves into the area and stalls for a few days.

Widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will be the
rule for the next few days. Main concern will continue to be
potential for some locally heavy rainfall. Still looks like 2 to
4 inches of rain for much of the area through Wednesday with the
bulk of that falling tomorrow through Monday. Locally higher
totals will be possible in areas that see multiple rounds of
heavier storms. Area soils are fairly dry and river levels low,
so not too concerned about flooding threat, though some localized
ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage areas will be
possible.

With respect to severe threat, still looks very marginal.

Inhibiting factor continues to be whether there will be enough
surface-based instability to support any severe storms. If any
storms do manage to become severe, the main threat would be
damaging wind gusts. However, with relatively strong shear, means
we can't rule out one or two weak tornadoes.

Picture is becoming a bit clearer with respect to midweek. Looks
like a weak front will bring some drying to the area Wednesday
night and into Thursday. But the quiet weather will be short-
lived. A third system will begin to affect the area by Thursday
night or Friday as an upper trough digs into northern mexico and a
surface low races northeastward toward the great lakes. Still a lot
of uncertainty going into the christmas holiday regarding the
timing and strength of the next cold front.

Aviation
Increasing low level moisture from the gulf of mexico has brought
some MVFR category CIGS of 2000 to 3000 feet to the airports
surrounding lake pontchartrain down to near khum and kbve.

Satellite imagery suggests some clearing or at least temporary
scattering of these clouds late this afternoon into early evening,
but then more widespread MVFR is expected to return this evening
across most if not all TAF airports with many CIGS lowering to
1000 to 2000 feet. Isolated to scattered shra will have mostly
brief impacts as they develop move into the region this evening to
around midnight, then more widespread impacts from shra and lifr
to ifr conditions are forecast to develop and spread from
northwest west to east southeast across the region late tonight
into Sunday morning.

Strong southerly winds just above the surface may result in a 2-4
hour period of low level wind shear in a corridor mainly from near
kbtr-khdc-kmcb late tonight into early Sunday morning. Have not
included mention in the tafs at this time, but may need to consider
mention with later issuances.

Marine
High pressure over the region will continue to slide east tonight
while cyclogenesis continues over the northwest gulf coast
region. This will send a warm front back north across the region
tonight which will allow the winds to veer around
southeasterly onshore tonight and early Sunday after the front
moves to the north. The pressure gradient will also tighten across
the region with moderate to strong winds of 15 to 20 expected
overnight tonight through early afternoon Sunday. As the surface
low pulls away Monday the front will basically stall over the
region leading to lighter winds through Tuesday. This period of
lighter southerly winds and warmer and much more humid air moving
north across the colder shelf waters will likely result in areas
of widespread fog with visibilities below one mile much of the
period from Sunday night through Tuesday.

Another surface low is expected to traverse the lower ms valley
which will bring another weak cold front into and likely stalling
over the region Wednesday before lifting north on Thursday. By the
end of the week we should see a much stronger cold front with strong
offshore winds developing behind it.

Decision support
Dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: none.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.

Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and or
direct tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 50 69 59 68 40 80 40 60
btr 53 72 61 71 40 80 50 70
asd 53 73 62 71 30 80 60 60
msy 56 74 63 72 30 80 60 60
gpt 53 70 62 70 20 80 70 50
pql 52 73 62 71 10 80 60 50

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

Aviation marine... 22 td
rest of discussion... 95 dm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSTL1 - 8760922 - Pilot's East, SW Pass, LA 1 mi53 min E 17 G 19 69°F 56°F1021.4 hPa
BURL1 - Southwest Pass, LA 3 mi83 min ENE 20 G 21 65°F 1020.8 hPa (-0.6)62°F
KDLP 15 mi28 min E 16 63°F 63°F
PILL1 18 mi53 min E 5.1 G 6 61°F 52°F1021.4 hPa
LOPL1 - Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, LA 33 mi52 min E 18 G 20 65°F 3 ft1020.1 hPa
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 37 mi53 min E 12 G 17 57°F 58°F1021 hPa
KMIS 38 mi28 min ESE 19 68°F 61°F
KXPY 44 mi28 min ENE 8 57°F 54°F

Wind History for Pilots Station East, SW Pass, LA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Boothville, LA27 mi92 minENE 65.00 miFog/Mist57°F54°F90%1022.1 hPa

Wind History from BVE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5N9N9N7N8N9NE8NE8NE8N7NE7NE9NE9
G15
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSE4S3S3CalmCalm3N5N4N4N5N7N9
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2 days agoSW4W4W6W5SW4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Pilot Station, Southwest Pass, Louisiana
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Pilot Station
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:10 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:44 AM CST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:44 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 04:12 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:02 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:22 PM CST     1.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.30.1-0-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1-00.10.20.30.40.60.70.811.11.21.21.21.110.8

Tide / Current Tables for Joseph Bayou, Mississippi River, Louisiana
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Joseph Bayou
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:57 AM CST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:09 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:44 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 04:12 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:01 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:39 PM CST     1.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.2-0-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.1-00.10.30.40.60.70.911.21.31.31.31.31.10.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.