Sunday, September24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dulac, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 6:57PM Sunday September 24, 2017 3:40 AM CDT (08:40 UTC) Moonrise 9:52AMMoonset 9:06PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ550 Coastal Waters From Port Fourchon La To Lower Atchafalaya River La Out 20 Nm- 945 Pm Cdt Sat Sep 23 2017
Rest of tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 5 seconds.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 5 seconds.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south late in the evening, then becoming southwest after midnight becoming north after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday night..East winds near 10 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots in the late evening. Seas 1 foot or less building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 945 Pm Cdt Sat Sep 23 2017
Synopsis..A large ridge of high pressure will continue to cover most of the eastern u.s. Through early next week. Weak easterly waves of lower pressure are expected to move across the northern gulf through Sunday, then high pressure is expected to rebuild over the region early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dulac, LA
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location: 29.06, -90.81     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 232031
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
331 pm cdt Sat sep 23 2017

Short term
Very little change in thinking with the latest forecast update.

Latest water vapor imagery shows a broad upper level low pushing
west toward the area this afternoon, and this low is still
expected to become centered over the region by tomorrow. The upper
level low should then linger over the area through Monday. An
increase in upper level omega and mid-level moisture into the
region should allow for greater convective activity over the next
couple of days. Precipitable water values will increase from
around 1.5 inches today to around 2 inches by Monday. Fully expect
to see pop ranging around 30 to 40 percent tomorrow, and then
increasing to around 50 to 60 percent by Monday. With an increase
in cloud development and convection, temperatures should cool back
to more normal levels for late september with highs in the middle
to upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Long term
The upper level low will begin to weaken and shift back to the
east of the area on Tuesday. A decrease in forcing aloft and a
slight reduction in precipitable water values and available
moisture will result in less overall convective potential Tuesday
afternoon. Have pop values of 20 to 30 percent in the forecast on
Tuesday, and expect to see slightly warmer temperatures climbing
back near 90 degrees in the afternoon.

Wednesday and Thursday will see the area dominated by deep layer
ridging and strong subsidence. With a sinking airmass in place
over the region, cloud development will be suppressed and
temperatures will warm considerably. Do not expect to see much in
the way of convective activity due to the subsidence and a strong
mid-level cap, and only have a pop of 5 to 10 percent in the
forecast each day. Highs should easily climb into the lower to
middle 90s both Wednesday and Thursday. The drier airmass and
clear skies should allow for a larger diurnal temperature range,
so overnight lows should be closer to average in the middle to
upper 60s.

The ridge should break down Thursday night and Friday as a strong
long wave trough dives into the midwest. This trough will send an
attendant cold front through the area Friday into Friday night.

This front looks to be fairly moisture starved as northerly flow
and lower precipitable water values linger over the region. As
a result, have a mostly dry forecast in place for Friday. At most,
some isolated showers and thunderstorm may try to develop along
the louisiana coast and offshore as the front moves through. By
Saturday, the front should be well offshore allowing a cool, dry,
and very stable airmass to advect in from the north. Temperatures
should fall into the lower to middle 80s by Saturday afternoon,
and overnight lows could even dip into the upper 50s across the
northern third of the CWA Saturday night.

Aviation
Vfr conditions are expected to prevail at most terminals through
Friday. A weak temperature inversion around 12z this morning could
produce some MVFR visibility restrictions at kmcb, khum and possibly
kbtr for a couple of hours as patchy fog develops. Any fog should
quickly burn off after 14z allowing for a return toVFR conditions.

Southeast flow will increase moisture and increase rain chances to
30 percent around most TAF sites. Will maintain prob30 most sites
except kmcb. 18

Marine
No significant changes in thinking from the previous forecast. Ridge
of high pressure will build just to the east of the coastal waters
through the forecast period. This will result in persistent
southeast flow of 10 knots and seas of 3 feet or less during this
period. 18

Decision support
Dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: none.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.

Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and or direct
tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 68 89 68 89 10 40 20 40
btr 70 91 69 91 10 30 20 40
asd 70 89 70 89 20 40 30 50
msy 75 89 74 89 20 40 30 50
gpt 72 87 71 87 20 50 40 50
pql 69 87 69 89 30 50 40 50

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

32


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SPLL1 - South Timbalier Block 52, LA / CSI06 22 mi100 min E 14 G 16
KXPY 33 mi25 min ESE 6 82°F 70°F
EINL1 37 mi40 min E 9.9 G 11 78°F 85°F1011.8 hPa (+0.0)74°F
KSPR 38 mi25 min SE 14 84°F 73°F
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 39 mi40 min NE 1 G 4.1 75°F 83°F1012.3 hPa (+0.0)
LOPL1 - Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, LA 43 mi75 min ESE 12 G 14 83°F 3 ft1012.1 hPa
GRBL1 44 mi100 min E 9.9 G 14 1011.9 hPa (-0.9)
KEIR 46 mi25 min SE 15 82°F 73°F
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 47 mi40 min ESE 8 G 9.9 82°F 85°F1012.5 hPa (+0.0)
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 48 mi40 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 73°F 80°F1012.8 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for LAWMA, Amerada Pass, LA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Fourchon, LA33 mi65 minESE 910.00 miFair82°F71°F70%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from XPY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4E5
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1 day agoE4NE4NE3E5E6E8E8E8E7SE8E76
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5NE7NE7NE7E6SE7E4E7SE7E5E6SE4SE4CalmCalm----N4N5

Tide / Current Tables for Caillou Boca, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Caillou Boca
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:36 AM CDT     1.56 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:52 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:51 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:50 AM CDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:56 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:05 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.61.51.51.41.21.110.80.70.70.60.60.60.70.70.80.911.11.21.31.41.5

Tide / Current Tables for Raccoon Point, Caillou Bay, Louisiana
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Raccoon Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:24 AM CDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:53 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:51 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:53 AM CDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:57 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:06 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
221.91.81.71.51.41.21.110.90.9111.11.11.21.31.51.61.71.81.92

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.