Sunday, May28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dulac, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 7:58PM Sunday May 28, 2017 5:33 AM CDT (10:33 UTC) Moonrise 8:04AMMoonset 10:04PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ550 Coastal Waters From Port Fourchon La To Lower Atchafalaya River La Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From The Southwest Pass Of The Mississippi River To Port Fourchon Louisiana Out 20 Mile- 334 Am Cdt Sun May 28 2017
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 334 Am Cdt Sun May 28 2017
Synopsis..High pressure will remain centered over the eastern gulf of mexico through the middle of next week. Monday and Tuesday...a weak front will stall along the louisiana and mississippi coast before dissipating Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dulac, LA
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location: 29.06, -90.81     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 280838
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
338 am cdt Sun may 28 2017

Short term
One more day of a broad upper level ridge remaining in place
across the forecast area and providing enough subsidence aloft to
cap off most convective activity. At worst, some isolated showers
and thunderstorms may develop where the cap is weakest across
southwest mississippi and the adjacent louisiana parishes during
peak heating this afternoon. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies this
morning should give way to partly cloudy skies by the afternoon,
and temperatures should easily climb to near 90 degrees.

The ridge axis will shift away from the area and more toward the
eastern gulf and florida tonight. As this occurs, a broad
positively tilted trough axis and associated frontal boundary
will sink into the region from the north. Any lingering mid-level
cap will quickly erode overnight, and expect to see some
convective activity initiate in a region of favorable jet dynamics
during the late overnight hours across the north and west parts
of the forecast area. Have included a mention of likely pop for
areas of southwest mississippi where the combination of ongoing
convection advecting in from the north, and new convection
initiating to the southwest and also advecting in is expected. The
remainder of the area should see chance pop coverage during the
late overnight hours. Temperatures will remain warm and muggy with
overnight lows only cooling into the middle to upper 70s.

Monday and Tuesday look to be very unsettled due to a combination
of a weak low level boundary stalling over the region, favorable
upper level dynamics that maximize lift across the region, and
ample instability throughout the atmospheric column as noted by
cape values in excess of 2000 j kg and lifted indices of around
-5c. Have kept in likely pop of 60 to 70 percent for the area both
on Monday and Tuesday. Pop should fall back into chance range
Monday and Tuesday nights as overall instability decreases due to
loss of daytime heating. There could be a few strong to possibly
severe thunderstorms tomorrow due to some increased directional
wind shear in the lowest 6km of the atmosphere. If a stronger
storm does develop, the primary concern would be for some
damaging wind gusts to occur. Temperatures will be cooler both
Monday and Tuesday due to the increased cloud cover and
convection around with highs climbing into the middle 80s each
day.

Long term
Heading into the latter part of the week a transition to a more
typical summer regime is expected with diurnally induced
convection possible each day. The coverage should be highest on
Wednesday due to the weak low level boundary still lingering over
the area as it slowly dissipates and some weak forcing aloft
associated with a weak vorticity maxima sliding in from texas.

Expect to see fairly numerous showers and thunderstorms from late
morning through the afternoon hours due to this with coverage
greatest north of the i-10 corridor. Temperatures will easily
climb into the upper 80s Wednesday afternoon after cooling into
the upper 60s and lower 70s Tuesday night. As this occurs, cape
values will surge back to between 2000 and 3000 j kg across most
of the region. Highest instability values will be over inland
portions of the CWA resulting in the higher pop forecast for that
area. Convective activity will decrease in coverage Wednesday
evening, and only expect isolated convective activity during the
overnight hours of Wednesday night as lows cool back into the
upper 60s and lower 70s and CAPE values fall below 500 j kg.

Thursday through Saturday will be very typical days for early june
with highs near normal in the upper 80s and lows in the lower to
middle 70s. Diurnally forced convection will be possible each day,
and have a general 20 to 40 percent chance of thunderstorms in the
forecast from late morning into the afternoon and early evening
hours when instability is maximized. Surface based CAPE should
rise to between 1500 and 2500 j kg each day, and the convective
temperature will be easily reached by late morning. Expect to see
a seabreeze boundary develop and push inland. This boundary will
in general serve as the focus for convective initiation, and have
the highest pop for areas north of the i-10 corridor where the
boundary should be located by the late morning and early afternoon
hours. Overall, a very typical summer pattern for the latter part
of the week.

Aviation
MVFR conditions at all terminals with CIGS at or below 2500 ft this
morning. CIGS will continue to drop to ifr levels at some terminals
toward daybreak. Conditions will begin to improve after sunrise and
should beVFR again at most sites by 16z. Almost a carbon copy
tonight with ceilings with more extensive cloud cover and depth.

There will also be an increase chance for sh TS to begin overnight.

Most of this activity should hold off until after midnight.

Marine
Expect general onshore flow of 10 to 15 kts to persist through the
first half of Monday as high pressure remains centered over the
eastern gulf of mexico and florida. Late Monday into Tuesday, a weak
front will stall near the coast resulting in a weaker pressure
gradient allowing winds and seas to relax. This front will also
result in an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. The front
should be completely dissipated by Wednesday, with onshore flow of
10 to 15 knots remaining.

Decision support
Dss code... Blue.

Deployed... None.

Activation... None.

Activities... Monitoring mississippi river.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch warning advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused
watch warning advisory issuances; radar support
orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate tonight risk svr
and or direct tropical threats; events of national
significance

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 91 73 84 68 20 60 60 50
btr 92 74 85 70 10 50 60 50
asd 89 75 87 73 10 40 60 40
msy 89 76 87 74 10 30 50 40
gpt 86 76 86 74 10 30 40 40
pql 86 75 86 72 10 30 40 30

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

32


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SPLL1 - South Timbalier Block 52, LA / CSI06 22 mi94 min S 16 G 18
KXPY 33 mi39 min S 9.9 G 15 79°F 77°F
EINL1 37 mi46 min SW 16 G 21 79°F 75°F1012.3 hPa76°F
KSPR 38 mi39 min SSW 16 79°F 77°F
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 39 mi46 min S 4.1 G 9.9 78°F 75°F1012.9 hPa
LOPL1 - Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, LA 43 mi51 min 13 G 17 79°F 3 ft1012.1 hPa
GRBL1 44 mi94 min S 13 G 18 1012.9 hPa (-0.5)
KEIR 46 mi39 min SW 15 G 20 79°F 77°F
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 47 mi46 min SSW 7 G 12 79°F 80°F1013.2 hPa
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 48 mi46 min SSW 5.1 G 8 77°F 74°F1013.3 hPa

Wind History for LAWMA, Amerada Pass, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Fourchon, LA33 mi39 minS 10 G 155.00 miFog/Mist79°F77°F94%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from XPY (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmE3SW3NW6W8W9W9W75SW6SW7SW7SW6S6S5S6S7S9S9S10S9
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Tide / Current Tables for Caillou Boca, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Caillou Boca
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:05 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:04 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:03 PM CDT     1.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:55 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:03 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.40.70.91.21.51.71.81.91.81.71.61.31.10.80.50.2-0-0.2-0.3

Tide / Current Tables for Raccoon Point, Caillou Bay, Louisiana
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Raccoon Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:06 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:05 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:45 AM CDT     2.27 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:56 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:58 PM CDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:04 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.3-0.10.20.40.711.31.61.822.22.22.32.221.81.51.10.70.40.1-0.2-0.3-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.