Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ponce Inlet, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:30PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 2:54 PM EST (19:54 UTC) Moonrise 12:33PMMoonset 11:31PM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 1036 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
This afternoon..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers late in the morning, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers in the morning.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Friday..North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Friday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 1036 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis..A stationary front over the treasure coast waters will create variable winds across the local atlantic with a light to gentle east-northeast breeze prevailing north of sebastian inlet, and light air to a light southerly breeze prevailing south of the inlet. The front will retreat northward as a warm front this evening as a wave of low pressure will lift northeast across north florida. This wave will push a more significant cold front south of the waters on Thursday and into the florida straits by daybreak Friday. A moderate to fresh north-northwesterly breeze behind the front will generate poor to hazardous boating conditions Thursday night into the upcoming weekend, especially in the gulf stream.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday november 12th. 44 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 32 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ponce Inlet, FL
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location: 29.1, -80.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 141520
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
1020 am est Wed nov 14 2018

Discussion
Latest analysis shows the cold front has more or less degenerated
into a trof wind shift over the treasure coast lake-o region as
there is no discernible change in temp dewpoint acrs the bndry...

readings in the u70 l80s and l m70s respectively. Rap40 analysis
shows N NE sfc-925 winds from sebastian inlet lake-k northward,
veering to S SE to the south... But h85 winds are completely S sw.

Lcl wind profilers show a similar wind shift btwn 2-3kft. Morning
raobs show a nearly saturated sfc-h85 lyr at kxmr kmfl... Drying out
rapidly abv h70... Pwat btwn 1.50"-1.75". Ktbw kjax raobs show a
shallow frontal inversion and rapid drying abv h85 with pwat's
btwn 1.25"-1.50".

Aloft, h70 temps arnd 8c and h50 temps arnd -7c yield weak lapse
rates arnd 5.5c km... H85-h50 avg dewpoint depressions running btwn
10-15c acrs central and south fl are embedded within 10-15kts of
s SW flow. H85-h30 omega vort fields are flat, as is the h30-h20
divergence field. H100-h85 mean rh values generally btwn 80-90pct,
but decrease to btwn 70-80pct thru the h100-h70 lyr.

Morning fog status has burned off along the i-4 corridor space
coast, and was rapidly breaking up over the treasure coast lake-o
region. Expect near full Sun over most of central fl for 3-4hrs hrs
before diurnal CU fields dvlp. LCL wrf hrrr models show both east
and west coast sea breezes dvlpg south of the i-4 corridor by arnd
20z, with convection dvlping over the interior counties arnd the
same time. S SE mean flow thru the h100-h70 lyr suggest aftn evng
convection concentrating along and north of the i-4 corridor.

With sfc dewpoints largely in the l m70s and the dry h85-h50 lyr,
will need to keep tsras in the fcst. However, the lack of dynamic
support and thermodynamic instability will limit tsra potential to
slgt chc... Precip mainly will be in the form of shras. Temps
continue well abv avg with aftn readings in the m u80s over most of
the cwa... Expect l80s along the volusia co. Coast due to the onshore
flow and relatively cool shelf waters.

Morning fcst package looks good wrt precip timing and coverage. Will
update to refresh the wording, but no sig chances necessary.

Aviation Thru 15 12z.

Sfc winds: thru 15 02z... N of kism-kevb E NE 6-9kts... S of kism-kevb
e SE 5-8kts. Btwn 15 02z-15 05z... Bcmg S SE 4-6kts xcpt klee bcmg
w SW 4-6kts. Btwn 15 07z-15 10z... N of kism-kmlb bcmg W NW 4-6kts
xcpt klee bcmg NW 7-10kts... S of kism-kmlb bcmg W SW 3-5kts.

Vsbys wx cigs: thru 14 18z... Slgt chc MVFR shras. Btwn 14 18z-
14 21z... Chc MVFR shras slgt chc ifr tsras. Btwn 14 21z-15 04z... N
of kgif-kevb lkly MVFR shras slgt chc ifr tsras. Btwn 15 04z-
15 09z... Chc MVFR shras slgt chc ifr tsras. Aft 15 09z... Chc MVFR
shras... N of kism-kmlb areas MVFR CIGS btwn fl010-020 LCL ifr cigs
blo fl010 LCL MVFR vsbys in br.

Marine
Dissipating frontal boundary over the treasure coast waters creating
variable winds acrs the LCL atlc... Light to gentle E NE breeze north
of sebastian inlet, bcmg lgt air lgt S SE breeze south of the inlet.

The front will lift back north as a warm front tonight as a wave of
low pressure develops along the front in the eastern gulf of
mexico... Winds bcmg a light to gentle E SE breeze thru sunset as
this process evolves. Seas 3-4 feet nearshore and 4-5 feet offshore,
mainly in a N NE swell... Dominant pds 8-9sec.

Climate
Record highs for today, november 14th:
dab 86 2008
mco 88 2008
sfb 88 2008
mlb 87 1970
vrb 85 2008
fpr 88 1970
vero beach has the best chance to set a new record high today.

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term aviation... Bragaw
long term impact wx... Weitlich


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 42 mi69 min N 11 74°F 1019 hPa72°F
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 51 mi36 min E 8 G 11 82°F 80°F1017.8 hPa
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 55 mi54 min N 22 G 22 73°F 74°F1018.2 hPa (-2.4)

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport, FL3 mi2.1 hrsNE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F73°F74%1018.3 hPa
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL8 mi61 minNNE 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F75°F79%1017.2 hPa
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL17 mi64 minNNE 8 G 167.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F73°F84%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from EVB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE8SE8SE8433----------------N6NE8NE8NE8NE8NE8NE9NE9NE10
1 day agoSE10SE8SE5SE5SE4SE4------------------SW4CalmSW3SW4SW5SW5SW8SW10SE8
2 days agoE10E10
G20
E13E10E11E11E11----------------E6SE5SE13SE13SE12SE11--S6S6

Tide / Current Tables for Ponce Inlet, Halifax River, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach (Ocean), Florida
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Daytona Beach (Ocean)
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:12 AM EST     3.65 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:07 AM EST     1.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:33 PM EST     4.29 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:03 PM EST     1.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:31 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.63.53.12.61.91.41.21.41.82.53.23.94.24.33.93.32.61.91.41.21.31.72.33

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.