Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ponce Inlet, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 7:59PM Sunday August 20, 2017 7:39 AM EDT (11:39 UTC) Moonrise 4:36AMMoonset 6:18PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 419 Am Edt Sun Aug 20 2017
Today..South winds 5 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 419 Am Edt Sun Aug 20 2017
Synopsis..The axis of surface high pressure will shift north of the waters today. This will result in a prevailing onshore breeze which freshens a bit tonight and into the early part of the week. The onshore flow will bring a few periods of scattered showers and storms over the atlantic waters through the middle of the week.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Saturday august 19th. 41 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 26 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 16 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ponce Inlet, FL
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location: 29.1, -80.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 200814
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
414 am edt Sun aug 20 2017

Discussion
Today-tonight... A weak inverted low level trough will move slowly
across the south half of the peninsula and into the gulf of mexico.

A band of high moisture will overspread the area today as this
feature moves across, except in far northern sections where the
models indicate some residual drier air lingering. This will set
up a rather large south to north pop gradient. MOS shows 80 percent
along the south coast and 20 percent in the north but have settled
on 70 and 30%, which is not too different than the previous
forecast.

The hrrr model has been showing the main chances during the
afternoon, but southern sections should have some shower chances
in the morning. The GFS indicates the high moisture keeping
pops going overnight with highest values (50-60%) in the north.

Won't go that high, but for now will carry chance pops through the
night.

Clouds and precip will limit high temps across the south half today
with readings reaching the upper 80s there. The far north interior
may still reach the mid 90s.

Mon... As inverted trough exits into the gulf, pocket of drier air
works into CWA in its wake. Area of 1000-500mb mean rh of 35-40
percent and pw values sub 1.50 inches should reach SE areas early
in the day, advecting NW through remainder of forecast area by
late in the day. Will indicate isolated pops south central
counties and low-end scattered for the north, becoming dry across
the south part in the afternoon. MAX temps a few degrees above
normal inland (near normal coast) with mins holding several
degrees above climo.

Tue... Global models consistent with next inverted trough
(tropical disturbance) approaching the SE fl coast tue, about 24
hours earlier than previous guidance. Will trend pops back upward
to good chance coverage (50 pop) Tue southern third, but isolated
showers storms to dry across the northernmost CWA as moisture
advection will take a while to work up the peninsula. Lingering
convection into Tue evening over central south counties, with
onshore moving showers storms possible overnight from about the
cape southward within moist SE flow.

Wed-sat... Large pool of deep layer tropical moisture remains in
place across central fl mid week into the weekend as long fetch of
se flow persists west of atlantic anticyclone. By late in the
week, the flow may acquire a more S SW component as high builds
southwest and weakening frontal trough drops into S ga and fl
panhandle. Series of weak surface low or perhaps a more
consolidated low may eventually form along the boundary and lift
ne over the atlantic to our north. Pattern suggests high coverage
of showers storms through the period with considerable cloudiness.

Greatest coverage of precip likely during the daytime, but with
chance of overnight showers and a few storms as well as flow
becomes S sw. MAX temps a few degrees above normal wed, then near
normal thu-sat. Mins several degrees above climo through the
period.

Aviation
MainlyVFR this morning, thin high moisture will lead to a
generation of scattered showers storms across the south half of the
area. There may not be a distinct east coast sea breeze due to
considerable cloudiness and showers over the adjacent atlantic, but
interior areas should have the main chance for storms. Kmlb-ksua
are the most likely TAF sites to experience MVFR-ifr conditions with
the convection. Some lingering mid level dry air could also produce
some quite gusty showers storms. It should take until after 18z for
isolated-scattered showers storms to build up from the south towards
the interior sites. The hrrr hasn't been showing anything reaching
kdab-klee this afternoon though.

Marine
Today-tonight... Surface high pressure ridge axis will migrate north
of the waters while a weak inverted trough shifts across the
peninsula and into the gulf of mexico. The models indicate a slight
tightening up of the pressure gradient as this occurs, especially
tonight when onshore winds become 10-15 knots across most of the
waters. The onshore flow will tap into higher moisture values and
lead to scattered onshore moving showers and storms building
northward today and into tonight.

Mon... Long fetch of e-se flow 10-15 knots, supporting seas of 2-3
ft nearshore and up to 4 ft offshore building to 5 ft offshore
mon night. Low coverage of onshore moving showers and isolated
storms.

Tue-thu... E-se winds 10-15 kt becoming more southerly near 10 kt by
wed and continuing Thu as surface high builds SW well offshore.

Seas generally 2-3 ft nearshore and up to 4 ft offshore. Scattered
to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms through much of the
period.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 90 77 88 76 30 40 40 10
mco 91 76 93 77 40 30 30 10
mlb 88 79 89 80 60 40 20 10
vrb 87 77 90 76 70 30 20 20
lee 94 77 94 77 30 20 40 10
sfb 92 77 93 76 30 30 40 10
orl 91 77 94 77 40 30 30 10
fpr 87 77 90 77 70 30 20 30

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term aviation... Lascody
long term... .Spratt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 42 mi115 min SSW 1 78°F 1018 hPa76°F
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 51 mi52 min NNE 2.9 G 2.9 79°F 86°F1017.7 hPa
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 55 mi40 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 79°F 81°F1016.7 hPa (+1.0)76°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport, FL3 mi53 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F75°F94%1016.6 hPa
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL8 mi47 minN 08.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F77°F100%1016.2 hPa
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL17 mi50 minN 07.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F73°F94%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from EVB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmSE30E6E6E6SE9E10E10SE13SE8SE8------------------Calm
1 day agoCalmSW5W3E3E7E7E7E7E7E7W16
G20
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NW5Calm------------------Calm
2 days agoSW5SW5W5W5W5NE8E8N5NW5W5W5CalmCalmCalmCalm----------------Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Ponce Inlet, Halifax River, Florida
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Ponce Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:00 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:06 AM EDT     3.37 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:24 PM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:43 PM EDT     3.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.30.10.411.72.53.13.43.22.61.80.90.2-0.2-0.20.41.222.83.43.53.22.5

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach (Ocean), Florida
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Daytona Beach (Ocean)
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:16 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:14 AM EDT     4.40 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:21 PM EDT     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:47 PM EDT     5.38 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.4-0.10.10.81.833.94.44.23.52.41.10.1-0.4-0.30.41.63.14.35.25.44.93.82.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.