Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Samsula-Spruce Creek, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 8:13PM Sunday May 20, 2018 8:55 PM EDT (00:55 UTC) Moonrise 10:40AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 341 Pm Edt Sun May 20 2018
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 341 Pm Edt Sun May 20 2018
Synopsis..A high pressure ridge over the atlantic will produce a moderate to fresh southeast breeze early this week, while deep tropical moisture keeps coverage of showers and Thunderstorms rather high. These poor to hazardous marine conditions should diminish by mid week as the atlantic ridge axis settles across central florida and weakens.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Sunday may 20th. 38 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 28 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 14 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 8 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Samsula-Spruce Creek, FL
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location: 29.1, -81.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 201935
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
335 pm edt Sun may 20 2018

Discussion
Tonight-Monday... The GFS nudges some mid level drying in from the
east early so this points to lowered rain chances areawide through
this evening. The waters to our east have not had many showers
today, so the GFS trend looks reasonable. The model shows a bit of
a southeast low level wind surge with increasing moisture after
midnight across our southern waters. MOS paints likely pops from
melbourne to stuart and okeechobee with increasing chances after
midnight. Will follow that guidance and have pops of 40 percent
elsewhere.

The models show mid upper trough over the eastern gulf of mexico
weakening on Mon but a plume of high moisture is forecast to extend
from the caribbean into the florida peninsula. MOS has very high
pops areawide (~80%). Did not go that high, but trended upward to
70% due to continued high moisture, breezy southeast winds providing
some low level convergence and divergence aloft in association with
the weak trough in the gulf. Clouds and showery weather will once
again limit high temps and have gone with lower 80s across the area.

Previous discussion...

tue-sun... The atlantic ridge axis will remain the dominant weather
feature with a moist south to southeast flow keeping rain chances
above normal (50 to 60 percent) most days supporting mainly daytime
showers and storms. The ridge axis is forecast to gradually shift
southward and weaken during mid to late week as a trough develops
over the southeast us. A slight reduction in the deep moisture by
wed will allow rain chances to decrease to 30-40 percent for most
areas. It will remain humid with MAX temps in the mid 80s.

Both GFS and ECMWF show a mid level trough developing over the
gulf of mexico late in the week. The GFS retrogrades a piece of
energy SW from the base of a departing shortwave trough off the us
east coast. The real difference is how each model handles lower
pressure at the surface. The ECMWF continues to show low pressure
developing directly underneath the upper low over the central gulf
on fri. This looks suspect as the best support for sfc low
pressure would be to the ascending (east) side of the upper low,
closer to the GFS solution. But both models show deep tropical
moisture overspreading the fl peninsula during the first part of
the upcoming holiday weekend which will prompt high rain chances
with a threat for heavy rain and localized flooding due to already
wet conditions.

Aviation Light showers will continue across most of the area
through at least 20 24z. Lower CIGS have been hovering between
020-030 this afternoon, with terminals periodically falling into
MVFR conditions with bkn025-030 decks. As of 3pm, already seeing
moderate to heavy showers develop across the interior along the
sea breeze. These showers may cause periodic reduced visibilities
and ifr CIGS of bkn010-015, thus I have updated the
kmco ksfb kism klee tafs to account for this through 20 21z.

Forecasting mainlyVFR conditions after 20 24z. Winds will
increase after 21 14z with all terminals likely to see sustained
winds of 12-15 knots and gusts around 20 knots. Showers are likely
Monday afternoon, thus have included vcsh for all terminals,
although some showers may develop along the coast earlier than
21 14z.

Marine
Tonight-Monday... Conditions for small craft operation will remain
poor. Southeast winds 15-20 knots are forecast over the offshore
waters with 15 knot speeds closer to shore. Seas 3-5 feet close to
the coast and 4-6 feet offshore. There will be a bit of a lull in
showers isolated storms through late evening, but moisture surging
back northward overnight and early Mon should result in likely rain
chances south of CAPE canaveral, then across the remainder of the
nearshore waters Mon morning. With a little mid level dry air,
some of the showers storms are expected to produce stronger wind
gusts to near 35 knots.

Tuesday-Friday... The axis of the atlantic ridge is forecast to
settle close to the waters on Wed and produce a day or two of
reduced southeast flow. However, Tue still looks to have poor
conditions as southeast winds will be close to 15 knots and
offshore seas up to 6 feet. There is also uncertainty if a low
pressure system may form in the northwest caribbean or eastern
gulf, which could lead to substantial deterioration of boating
conditions late in the week.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 72 80 70 82 40 60 30 50
mco 70 82 71 85 40 70 20 50
mlb 73 81 74 82 60 70 30 50
vrb 73 80 72 83 60 70 30 40
lee 70 83 70 86 40 70 20 50
sfb 70 81 70 84 40 70 20 50
orl 70 81 70 83 40 70 20 50
fpr 72 80 72 83 60 70 30 40

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term long term... Lascody
impact wx... .Spratt
aviation... Rodriguez


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 39 mi71 min E 2.9 76°F 1021 hPa74°F
41118 44 mi56 min 77°F3 ft
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 53 mi56 min NE 6 G 7 75°F 76°F1019.5 hPa (+0.0)
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 55 mi38 min E 7 G 11 77°F 78°F1020.1 hPa

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL7 mi63 minESE 47.00 miOvercast76°F73°F94%1018.6 hPa
New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport, FL10 mi69 minESE 57.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F71°F83%1019 hPa
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL14 mi2.1 hrsE 55.00 miFog/Mist75°F73°F94%1018.6 hPa
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL23 mi63 minE 710.00 miA Few Clouds76°F72°F88%1018.1 hPa

Wind History from DAB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE45CalmCalmS5S4CalmCalmNW3NW5CalmCalmCalmSE3S43SE5SE6E4SE3E5E54E4
1 day agoE4SE3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S7SW6SW5SE7W3S4S5S5SE4S4S5
2 days agoS9S3SE7S8S7S7S6S6S3S4SW5S3S5S7S6CalmW3E9NE10SW5E6E8E86

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach Shores, Sunglow Pier, Florida
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Daytona Beach Shores
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Sun -- 12:26 AM EDT     4.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:45 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:57 PM EDT     4.11 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:59 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.84.74.23.120.90.20.10.51.42.33.23.94.13.83.12.11.20.40.20.51.32.33.4

Tide / Current Tables for Ponce Inlet, Halifax River, Florida
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Ponce Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:21 AM EDT     3.15 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:37 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:39 PM EDT     2.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:01 PM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.73.13.12.61.91.10.50.10.10.411.72.32.82.92.51.91.20.5-0-0.200.61.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.