Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Golden Meadow, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 7:17PM Thursday March 23, 2017 3:09 AM CDT (08:09 UTC) Moonrise 2:57AMMoonset 2:03PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ550 Coastal Waters From Port Fourchon La To Lower Atchafalaya River La Out 20 Nm- 1031 Pm Cdt Wed Mar 22 2017
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 5 seconds. Patchy fog in the late evening and early morning.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Waves or seas building to 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds after midnight.
Friday..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 1031 Pm Cdt Wed Mar 22 2017
Synopsis..A cold front will approach the coastal waters from the northeast this evening and retreat north late Thursday. As a storm system develops in the great plains Thursday and Friday...strong onshore flow will develop for late Thursday through the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Golden Meadow, LA
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location: 29.13, -90.42     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 230446
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
1146 pm cdt Wed mar 22 2017

Aviation
Some fog noted at khum and kgao but all other locations areVFR at
this time. Low level winds are expected to not fully decouple to
maintain at least some low level mixing that should curtail
widespread fog developments though locally some patchy radiational
fog may occur briefly before becoming a canopy level stratus deck.

These conditions should burn off by 15z forVFR conditions through
about 00z before response to cyclonic sytem in the central plains
states brings deeper low level moisture and MVFR cloud bases to
the region after 00z, potentially lowering to ifr in some
locations after 24/06z. 24/rr

Prev discussion /issued 412 pm cdt Wed mar 22 2017/
synopsis...

latest surface analysis showed a weak cold front from north
florida to mississippi coast to west central louisiana. Surface
dewpoint readings were in the mid to upper 50s north of the
boundary and 60 to 65f south of the boundary. Drying and north
winds have allowed temps to climb especially along the mississippi.

Surface flow was generally from the northwest. Upper air analysis
showed a general northwest flow from east coast to the
mississippi valley, ridge axis over the plains and vigorous wave
approaching the west coast. Isotach at 250mb initialized jet max
of 120 knots on the back side of the wave or off the west coast.

Short term...

frontal zone across the forecast area will become stationary
through Thursday. At the same time, surface trough/low will deepen
as the upper level moves across the rockies Thursday into Friday.

These features will create a general southeast flow across the
forecast area by mid day Thursday and increase Thursday night into
Friday.

Upper level wave/trough will track across the rockies and
evolve into a closed low late Thursday. MAX jet streak of 100 to
110 knots will migrate to the base of the trough. While no true
negatively tilt occurs with this system, one strong disturbance
will rotate around the low and across louisiana and mississippi.

Surface base CAPE will increase across the west zones Friday
afternoon with values 300 to 600 j/kg. Will insert slight chance
of showers in the morning and add slight chance of thunderstorms
Friday afternoon.

Low level southeast to south flow and southwest flow aloft will
increase 0-3km helicity values 200 to 350 m/s Friday evening
through early Saturday mainly across the north half of the
forecast area. CAPE values do increase with values of 300 j/kg
across southwest mississippi to 1000 j/kg along the louisiana.

With the disturbance rotating southeast through the forecast area
Friday night a few storms may contain damaging winds and/or one or
two tornadoes. As for hail, 500mb temps may dip to -17f across
northwest zones by Saturday. As a result, a few storms may contain
hail, but cold core lags behind the disturbance but forcing may
yield a few hail storms ahead of the cold core.

Long term...

with no true frontal passage over the weekend, low level moisture
will remain in play. However, mid layer moisture will be pushed
east provide a break on Sunday. A short wave will rake across the
north zones on Monday yielding a few storms, but these storms
should remain below severe limits. Meanwhile in the latter part of
the forecast, a very strong system will approach the lower
mississippi valley late Wednesday into Thursday. While 7 to 8 days
away, the pattern does support a round of strong to severe across
the forecast area late next week. It is that time of year.

Aviation...

vfr conditions are expected to prevail through most of the period.

Lower CIGS and vsbys will be possible near daybreak, resulting in
MVFR or even ifr conditions for a few hours.

Marine...

wind field should remain quiet for about the next 24 hours. Once
the next system moves out of the rockies sometime Thursday, the
pressure gradient will tighten. Winds are expected to become
southeasterly by late Thursday, and we will likely need small
craft exercise caution headlines in at least our far eastern
waters at that point. By sunrise Friday, most all waters should
have the scec headline or a small craft advisory. These conditions
likely to continue into Saturday before easing.

Decision support...

dss code... Green.

Deployed... None.

Activation... None.

Activities... None.

Decision support service (dss) code legend:
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused
watch/warning/advisory issuances; radar support
orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk of severe weather;
nearby tropical events, hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe weather; direct
tropical threats; events of national significance.

95/dm

Preliminary point temps/pops
Mcb 57 83 63 77 / 0 10 10 20
btr 58 84 66 80 / 0 10 10 20
asd 60 79 65 78 / 0 10 10 20
msy 63 79 67 79 / 0 10 10 20
gpt 61 76 65 73 / 0 10 10 20
pql 60 75 63 74 / 0 10 10 20

Lix watches/warnings/advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KXPY 12 mi34 min WNW 5.1 72°F 68°F
SPLL1 - South Timbalier Block 52, LA / CSI06 18 mi129 min W 4.1 G 5.1 71°F
GRBL1 24 mi129 min W 8 G 8.9 1020.8 hPa (-0.4)
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 26 mi51 min NW 8 G 8.9 72°F 70°F1020.5 hPa
LOPL1 - Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, LA 27 mi52 min WNW 6 G 8 71°F 1 ft1020.1 hPa
KDLP 46 mi29 min Calm 72°F 72°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 46 mi51 min W 1.9 G 2.9 66°F 75°F1021.1 hPa
KMDJ 47 mi34 min WNW 7 72°F 68°F

Wind History for Grand Isle, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Fourchon, LA12 mi74 minW 410.00 miFair72°F68°F88%1021 hPa
Galliano, South Lafourche Airport, LA23 mi74 minN 00.15 miFog64°F61°F93%1021 hPa

Wind History from XPY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW11W11W9
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W8W9NW9NW11NW12NW8W10W8W8CalmSW5S8SW9W7W5SW5W5W6W5W6W5
1 day agoSW7SW5SW6SW8SW7SW6W8SW10SW11W8
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2 days agoW4W3W4--NW3W4W8W7W66
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SW7W9SW8SW9SW10SW9SW7SW8SW8SW8SW6SW7SW7

Tide / Current Tables for Pelican Islands, Timbalier Bay, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Pelican Islands
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:57 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:01 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:50 AM CDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:03 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:15 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:13 PM CDT     0.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.60.40.30.20-0-0.1-0.1-0.1-00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.70.80.90.90.90.9

Tide / Current Tables for Timbalier Island, Timbalier Bay, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Timbalier Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:57 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:47 AM CDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:02 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 03:03 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:06 PM CDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:15 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.30.10-0-0.1-0.1-0.1-00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.90.90.90.90.90.80.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.