Saturday, March25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Daytona Beach Shores, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 7:39PM Saturday March 25, 2017 7:32 PM EDT (23:32 UTC) Moonrise 4:45AMMoonset 4:20PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 415 Pm Edt Sat Mar 25 2017
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots towards daybreak. Seas 4 to 5 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A moderate chop on the open intracoastal waters.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 5 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out 60 Nm- 415 Pm Edt Sat Mar 25 2017
Synopsis..A high pressure ridge centered off the carolina coast will maintain an east to southeast wind flow through the weekend. The ridge will gradually settle south across the waters early next week resulting in a decrease in wind speed. A moderate easterly swell will be the primary contribution to local wave heights, producing hazardous conditions near inlets especially during the outgoing tide.
Gulf stream hazards..SEas up to 6 feet. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Friday march 24th. 42 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 27 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 16 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Daytona Beach Shores, FL
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location: 29.15, -80.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 251945
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
345 pm edt Sat mar 25 2017

Discussion
Tonight...

deep lyr ridge extending from bermuda into the SE gomex will
maintain an e/se h100-h70 mean flow acrs central fl. Latest ruc
analysis shows upstream mean rh values in the h100-h85 lyr running
btwn 70-80pct... Which may be just high enough to allow a few low-
topped shras to dvlp in the wake eddys downwind of the NRN bahamas.

Subsequent onshore flow would put the space/treasure coasts in their
path, but any precip would be light with negligible impact. Mild
temps overnight due to the marine influence... Mins in the l/m60s
along the coast, u50/l60s interior.

Sunday...

well dvlpd cut-off low over the nation's midsection will lift into
the great lakes region, cranking an h85-h30 trof axis acrs the deep
south. The trajectory of this storm system will prevent its trailing
sfc cold front from pushing much further east than the lwr ms
valley, leaving the h100-h70 ridge axis over the W atlc as the
primary wx feature for central fl. However, the mid lvl trof will
work to weaken the ridge a bit, model soundings show significant
erosion of the h85-h70 subsidence inversion currently overhead. H50
temps arnd -12c this aftn could drop another deg or two as a mid lvl
thermal trof assocd with the storm system works its way east in
tandem with the pressure trof. Prefrontal vort axis in the h85-h50
lyr would provide additional instability to the equation.

The weakening atlc ridge axis will result in a lighter sfc/low lvl
wind field, which in turn would promote the formation of both the
east and west coast sea breezes. Mean e/se flow would focus any late
day collision west of the fl turnpike, but with aftn temps expected
warm into the l/m80s over the interior, could see shallow convection
dvlp by mid aftn. The 25/12z GFS mos pops have come down quite a bit
from the 25/00z run and are much more in line with an isold shra
regime that fcst pwat values of 1.00"-1.25" would support. Will
leave precip out of coastal zones as the onshore flow will keep max
temps in the u70s, blo their convective triggers.

Mon-sat...

weather looks rather tranquil through at least mid week as low
level ridge settles over the area and a weak front pushes offshore
to the north wed. With no significant frontal passages or intrusions
of cool air, high temperatures will be above normal in the lower
80s coast and mid 80s interior. High pressure is forecast to push
offshore late in the week with a warmer southerly flow developing,
which could produce some upper 80s over the interior.

The GFS has been differing with the other global models regarding
the evolution of trough aloft that will dig into the southwestern
conus early in the week. The 12z GFS moved it across the southern
states/tennessee valley late in the week, while the 12z ecmwf
continued to lift it out farther to the north. Therefore, the gfs
has been showing a much more distinct band of frontal band
moisture moving across on fri. Will continue to use a model blend
of pops on fri-fri night, which keeps chance values in the north
and slight chance in the south, but confidence is low.

Aviation Thru 26/18z.

Sfc winds: thru 26/00z... E/se 9-13kts... Ocnl g18-22kts coastal
sites. Btwn 26/00z-26/03z bcmg e/se 3-6kts. Btwn 26/12z-26/15z bcmg
e/se 8-12kts.

Vsbys/wx/cigs: prevailingVFR... CIGS btwn fl040-060. Aft 26/00z... E
of kmlb-kobe slgt chc MVFR shras.

Marine
Tonight-Sunday... Sfc low pressure north of puerto rico will
deepen and lift n/ne into the open atlc, deforming the SRN flank
of the high pressure ridge over the atlc. Meanwhile, a well dvlpd
storm system over the nation's midsection will lift n/ne into the
great lakes and erode the WRN flank of the ridge. While the ridge
axis itself will hold in place, its weakened condition will result
in a diminished onshore flow. Long pd swells will decrease as
well, but will maintain 4-5ft combined seas nearshore and 5-6ft
offshore. This will continue to produce hazardous conditions near
inlets for small craft during the outgoing tide. Seas up to 7ft
psbl in the gulf stream overnight, but with dominant pds arnd 9sec
areawide, overall sea state does not warrant a small craft
advisory. Will continue cautionary statements where needed.

Mon-thu... High pressure ridge will settle over the waters by tue
while weakening. This will cause easterly winds to diminish to
around 10 knots Mon then become variable around 5 knots tue. The
ridge will slide southeast wed-thu and produce a light westerly
wind Wed and southerly on thu, but possibly increasing to 10-15
knots. Boating conditions look mostly good, though a long period
east swell will result in rough waves near inlets during the
outgoing tide especially mon- tue.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Dab 62 77 62 79 / 10 10 10 10
mco 62 82 62 83 / 10 20 10 0
mlb 66 78 63 80 / 10 10 10 0
vrb 65 78 62 80 / 20 10 10 0
lee 62 83 62 83 / 0 20 10 10
sfb 61 82 61 82 / 10 20 10 0
orl 62 81 63 82 / 10 20 10 0
fpr 64 79 61 80 / 20 10 10 0

Mlb watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None
short term... Bragaw
long term... .Lascody


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 38 mi107 min E 7 71°F 1023 hPa62°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 51 mi32 min ESE 8.9 G 9.9 67°F 69°F1022.5 hPa (-1.4)
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 54 mi44 min E 5.1 G 7 74°F 71°F1022.3 hPa

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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E10
G16
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G13
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NE15
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NE14
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NE7
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G17
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G23
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G17
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G22

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL5 mi39 minE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F60°F68%1021.3 hPa
New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport, FL7 mi45 minESE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F59°F65%1021.7 hPa
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL13 mi1.7 hrsESE 10 G 167.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F60°F69%1021.3 hPa

Wind History from DAB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E6E9
G16
E3E8E5E5SE3E4E4E6E5E36E7E11
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1 day agoE14NE16E12E10
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E9E9E8E7E6E9E9E10E9
G17
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E8E11
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2 days agoNE13NE9N4N4NE5N3NW3NE4E6E7E4SW4E3E5E15E14
G22
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G24
E16
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NE17E17NE18
G25
NE14
G24
NE16NE14

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach Shores, Sunglow Pier, Florida
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Daytona Beach Shores
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:15 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT     4.21 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:48 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:54 PM EDT     4.16 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.411.92.83.64.14.23.82.91.910.30.10.51.42.43.33.94.23.93.12.11.1

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach (Ocean), Florida
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Daytona Beach (Ocean)
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:12 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:33 AM EDT     4.28 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:49 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:53 PM EDT     4.00 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-00.10.81.72.83.74.24.23.72.91.80.80.1-00.31.12.13.13.843.72.91.80.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.