Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Daytona Beach Shores, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 5:30PM Thursday November 15, 2018 3:37 PM EST (20:37 UTC) Moonrise 1:12PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 1034 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft exercise caution...
This afternoon..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Friday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 1034 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis..Low pressure will deepen as lifts north along the eastern seaboard with a cold front shifting southeast of the waters this afternoon. Behind the front, high pressure will track east along the gulf coast and produce a period of north winds into Saturday. High pressure will weaken by early next week allowing winds to decrease.
Gulf stream hazards..West to northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas building 6 to 8 feet. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday november 12th. 44 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 32 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Daytona Beach Shores, FL
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location: 29.15, -80.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 152008
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
308 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Discussion
Turning much colder into tonight with lows in the 40s and 50s...

tonight-Friday... With cold front now offshore, colder and much
drier air will continue to filter down into the region in the low
level N NW flow. It will turn much colder into tonight, with
temperatures falling into the 40s over much of the region, except
remaining in the 50s toward the coast, south of the cape. Drier
air will continue to erode the low cloud deck moving through the
area, with skies becoming clear overnight. Cooler and dry
conditions then expected for Friday, with highs in the mid to
upper 60s, except low 70s along the treasure coast. Skies will be
sunny with northerly winds around 5 to 10 mph.

Weekend... High pressure over the central gulf coast will slide
eastward late Friday into Saturday. Initial north flow will veer
northeast through this transition, becoming onshore by Sunday. Dry
airmass remains in place, with pwats hovering near half an inch
through the weekend. This limited moisture will keep pops near zero,
with only a slight chance of showers for coastal volusia late Sunday
afternoon. Cooler air behind the frontal passage dips temperatures
sat morn into the low 40s for the northern interior, mid 40s west of
the st johns river and low 50s along the coast and urban areas.

Afternoon highs return to near to slightly below normal in the low
to mid 70s on sat, with the warming trend persisting into Sunday,
with lows ranging from low to upper 50s, highs Sunday sneaking to
near 80 degrees.

Monday-Tuesday... A longwave trough across the eastern states and
surface high pressure near the tn valley will keep n-ne low level
flow across east central fl for early next week. The airmass will
be relatively dry with a low shower chance mainly across south
coastal sections. Highs are expected in the mid 70s across volusia
county and NRN lake counties to the upper 70s around 80 across
the remainder of the area. Lows in the 50s interior to lower 60s
coast.

Wed-thanksgiving day... Low level flow will veer to onshore into mid
week with the GFS and ECMWF indicating a significant mid level wave
shortwave poised across the WRN gulf with low pressure development
ahead of it by thanksgiving day. Model forecasts indicate increased
shower convective chances as this system approaches fl just beyond
the day 7 fcst period. At this point will keep onshore moving shower
chances for the treasure coast Wednesday and 20 30 percent shower
chances across eastern portions of the forecast area on thanksgiving
day. Temps will remain near normal for late november. Lows in the
mid-upr 50s interior to lower 60s near the east coast. High temps in
the mid 70s north to upper 70s near 80 across the central south.

Aviation Low cloud deck producing MVFR conditions will continue
to shift southeast, with much of the area likely experiencing bkn-
ovc MVFR CIGS through early this evening. Models then have drier
air filtering in behind the front and quickly eroding these low
level clouds, with skies becoming clear andVFR conditions
returning from north to south this evening into the overnight.VFR
conditions will persist through Friday as skies remain sunny, with
northerly winds around 5-10 knots.

Marine
Tonight-Friday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions will persist
behind the cold front tonight through Friday. Northerly winds up
to 15-20 knots will build seas up to 7 feet over the gulf stream.

A small craft advisory will continue offshore and nearshore, south
of sebastian inlet for these hazardous conditions. Small craft
should exercise caution across the nearshore waters of volusia and
brevard counties for seas up to 6 feet.

Weekend... SCA conditions offshore will diminish as high pressure
builds across the south. Initially, seas of 4-5 feet nearshore
building to 6 feet offshore early Saturday will subside to 3-4 feet
near and 4-5 feet offshore by Sunday afternoon. North winds of 10-15
knots gradually veer onshore as the sfc high moves closer to the
atlantic coast. Low moisture will keep rain chances near zero
through the period.

Mon-tue... N NE winds are expected up to 10-15 knots at times with
seas 3-4 ft near shore and 4-5 ft offshore. Seas may be higher in
the gulf stream if the pressure gradient tightens further on the
back side of a low pushing offshore from the southeast atlantic
coast by early next week.

Fire weather
Fri... Colder and drier air will build into the region tonight
through tomorrow. Min rh values in the mid to upper 30s are
expected across the interior, mainly from the orlando area
westward. Winds will be out of the north around 10 mph.

Sat-sun... Flow veers onshore and gradually modifies the cooler and
drier airmass in place. Min rh values may still fall into the low
40s across the far interior Saturday, otherwise rh values remain
above critical levels.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 45 64 48 72 0 0 0 0
mco 49 67 48 74 0 0 0 0
mlb 51 69 53 75 10 0 0 0
vrb 54 70 54 77 10 0 10 0
lee 44 65 45 73 0 0 0 0
sfb 46 66 48 74 0 0 0 0
orl 49 67 51 74 0 0 0 0
fpr 54 71 55 76 10 0 10 0

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Friday for sebastian inlet
to jupiter inlet 0-20 nm-sebastian inlet to jupiter inlet
20-60 nm.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Friday for flagler beach to
volusia-brevard county line 20-60 nm-volusia-brevard county
line to sebastian inlet 20-60 nm.

Short term aviation... Weitlich
mid term... Smith
long term... .Volkmer


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 38 mi52 min W 4.1 64°F 1017 hPa57°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 51 mi37 min W 8.9 G 12 61°F 73°F1016.3 hPa (-0.3)
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 54 mi37 min NW 11 G 17 71°F 80°F1016.1 hPa (-0.6)

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL5 mi44 minWNW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F59°F73%1015.3 hPa
New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport, FL7 mi50 minW 12 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F57°F69%1015.9 hPa
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL13 mi47 minWNW 11 G 167.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F57°F73%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from DAB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8NE6NE9NE5NE6CalmCalmCalmS8S6S8S7S7S6W14
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1 day agoS63E3SE3S4CalmCalmN10
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N12N11N8N8N6NE6NE8NE9NE9N9N10N13NE12NE12
2 days agoE743SE4SE5S5CalmS3S6S3S5S4S4S5S4CalmCalmSW3S4S8S7S11SW8S4

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach Shores, Sunglow Pier, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach (Ocean), Florida
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Daytona Beach (Ocean)
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Thu -- 01:07 AM EST     3.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:04 AM EST     1.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:26 PM EST     4.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:55 PM EST     1.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.43.63.53.12.521.51.31.51.92.63.23.84.14.13.73.12.41.81.31.21.31.82.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.